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Mali gold production jumps 30% during the first half of the year, exceeding forecasts
Mali's industrial gold production rose by?about 30 percent in the first half of 2026. This exceeded government expectations and signals a rebound after a challenging 2025, marked by tensions with the state. Mali is one of Africa’s top gold producers. To boost revenue, it has tightened the grip on its mining sector. Reforms have sometimes upset miners. The impact of the fallout was felt in production, which dropped to 42.2 metric tonnes?in 2025. This is a drop from 66.5 metric tons produced at a record level in 2023. The latest data from the Mines Ministry shows that industrial gold production reached 23.5 tonnes between January and the end of June. This is up from 18 tons during the same period in 2025, and exceeds the government's prediction of 21.2 tons. The scoreboard for industrial production did not give any reasons for the better than expected performance, and Mali's Mines Ministry did not respond immediately to a comment request. Mali's gold production is expected to reach or surpass its forecasted 43.2 tons for the full year. B2Gold Fekola mine was the largest gold producer in the country?in the second half of the year, according to figures from the Ministry. Barrick's Loulo production exceeded the 5.5 tons reported by Barrick for 2025. Other significant contributors included Resolute, with?3.0 tonnes and Allied, with 3.5 tonnes. Separately this month, Mali’s Council of Ministers granted a large scale mining permit for B2Gold’s Menankoto Project, opening the door to the development of a new mine. The new permit is part of a growing pipeline of gold projects in Mali. This includes the Kobada project by?Toubani Resources. B2Gold anticipates that?Menankoto will produce more than 150,000 ounces per year from 2028. Kobada, on the other hand, is expected to produce 162,000 ounces per year by 2027 and is aiming for first gold. (Reporting and editing by Maxwell Akalaare Adombila, David Holmes and Tiemoko Diallo)
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Andy Home: ROI-China eases Iran War Aluminium Shock, but at a Cost
China is now a major swing?supplier for aluminium in a Western market reeling from the loss production in the Gulf due to the Iran War. The top aluminium producer in the world has increased exports of metals, alloys and semi-manufactured goods (semis) to help cushion the impact on the global supply chains. China views the timing as fortunate. The national production has reached record levels, despite a slowdown in domestic demand. While China's exports may have temporarily relieved the market, a long-term problem could be lurking. Mind the Tax Gap Tax code is the primary factor that determines the composition of China's aluminum exports. The primary metal is subject to a 30% tax on exports, whereas alloys and semis are exempt. No surprise then that the majority of China's export volumes is in the form alloys and products like bar, rod, and tube. It's not that primary metal exports haven't responded. The first-half volume rose 32% on an annual basis to 38,400 tons. However, the majority of this metal likely comes from Western aluminum stored in bonded storage and is now being rerouted back to Western markets. China, for example, "exported" 9700 tons to the U.S. from January to June but U.S. Customs only counted 70 tons of Chinese imported goods during the same period. The exports of alloy have grown faster and nearly doubled to 238,500 tonnes in the first half of 2026. In fact, China became a net alloy exporter in June for first time since 2019. In the meantime, China produced an additional 500,000 tons of semis. The cumulative volume was up?18% on an annual basis at 3.2 millions tons from January to June. The pace of shipments continues to accelerate. The tally for June of 695,000 tonnes was a monthly record. DISPLACEMENT These products exports cannot directly replace the primary metal and alloy units lost in the Gulf. They suppress the demand for unwrought steel by substituting it at a later stage in the production chain. The rub is in the details. This has led to a shift of manufacturing from other countries to China. China's semis are a source of controversy for Western policymakers, and many countries have responded with anti-dumping duties on a variety of products. Beijing has removed the 13% VAT export rebate for products in December 2024, partly to address these concerns. Last year, exports dropped 18% to 890 000 tons as Chinese processors shifted to the domestic market. The Iran War?has again changed the dynamics, reinvigorating the outbound flow thanks to a combination of a structurally stressed Western Supply Chain and a lax internal market. Cost of Comfort Analysts at Citi say that the Chinese demand for aluminium has flattened in the first half 2026. The end-use index of the bank fell by 0.4% on an annual basis, reflecting weakness in traditional sectors such as construction. International Aluminium Institute reports that primary aluminium production grew 2.2% in the same time period. ?The country's smelters are now ?operating close to or even slightly above Beijing's mandated 45-million-ton-per-year capacity cap. Stocks at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, although they have fallen in recent weeks, still remain higher than London Metal Exchange inventories of 358,000 tonnes, which includes metal stored off-warrant. China has the ability to keep exports high for some time. The LME market has been reassured by this, as aluminium has lost most of its war premium. The price of aluminium for the three months has fallen from its four-year-high of $3,787.50 a ton, at the beginning of June, to $3,270.00. This is only $100 more than before the U.S. Israel and the United States attacked Iran on 28 February. The longer the West relies on Chinese products to balance the market, the higher the long-term costs for Western manufacturers. Andy Home is a columnist at. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Russell: Divergent demand factors are driving China's steel production.
The fact that China's steel production dropped to its lowest level this year in July supports the idea that the world's second largest economy struggles for growth momentum. As usual, the devil lies in the details. Steel demand is unevenly distributed across the economy. The world's biggest producer of industrial metal saw its steel output fall to 76.93 metric?tons during July. This is a 3.6% drop from the same period in 2025, and it was the lowest July since 2017. China's first seven months of the year saw a production volume of 577.04 millions tons, down by 3.1% compared to the same period last year. The market is always looking for the downside, and in the case of steel, this is the construction industry, which is still plagued by overcapacity and weak housing prices, as well as reluctant buyers. Conditions are important because construction accounts for about a third China's demand for steel. In July, new home prices were down 0.1% from the month before and 3.2% from a year ago. The picture is not as bleak if you look at the other two-thirds. Exports are the?star' of the show. Exports are booming, despite a slowdown in domestic sales, which has now been going on for 10 straight months. July's exports of 1.043 millions units were up by 81.3% compared to the same month last year and was the second consecutive month that shipments exceeded 1 million. China's exports have generally held up, despite the economic uncertainty caused by the U.S. War against Iran and tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump. Exports in U.S. dollars rose by 23.9% in July, mainly due to shipments of technology and vehicles. China prioritizes technology industries, such as toys and white goods, over traditional manufacturing sectors like cars. Overall, China's growth path is becoming more diverse. This will make the outlook for steel more difficult. EXPORTS? Exports have been a bright spot for the industry, but they can't be relied on as a constant source of growth in demand, as the 4% drop in steel shipments during the first seven month of the year, to 64.99 millions tons, shows. The steel industry will likely have to either hope for a stronger stimulus from Beijing in order to spur a recovery of construction or rationalise its capacity. Steel mills have already struggled to stay afloat. According to data from MySteel, only one-third were profitable by the end of July. This is down from about half at the beginning of June. Steel inventories have also reached high levels, as reported by SteelHome. At 5,07 million tons during the week ending August 14, this is up from a recent low of 4,67 million tonnes in mid-June, and higher than the 4,11 million tonnes from the same period in 2025. Steel inventories usually increase until September, after which they tend to decline during the peak construction period that lasts from winter start. Iron ore prices and imports have not yet reflected the struggles of the steel industry. Instead, the main raw material has shown a?stable to slightly better picture. China imports 736.84 millions tons of seaborne iron ore in the first seven month of this year, an increase of 6% over the same period of 2025. Kpler estimates August imports at 111.16 millions tons, up from July's official number of 108.08million. Since June, iron ore prices are also largely stable between $93-$100 per ton. The Singapore Exchange contract ended at $95.10 Monday. The iron ore prices are largely a function of the available supply. And the recent steady history shows that the new Simandou Mine in Guinea has a long way to go before it reaches its 120 million tons per year capacity. China's imports of Guinean gold were only 2.1 million tonnes in July. However, as Simandou ramps up production this could increase. This will lead to a softer price as top producers Australia and Brazil have to compete. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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Bond markets in the US and Japan are smashed by inflation and fiscal concerns
The United States' long-term borrowing costs to Japan and Germany reached their highest level in decades on Tuesday as new inflation concerns added to the nagging concern about the fiscal pressures that are facing some of the largest economies around the world. The 30-year bond yields of the United States - the world's most important government bond market - hit their highest level since 2007. Oil prices -- which are up 50% this year -- have risen back above $90 per barrel, causing inflation fears as U.S. - Iran peace hopes fade. In Japan, fears of inflation and the expectation that Japan would hike interest rates by September drove 10-year borrowing costs up to a record high. In Europe, Germany’s 10-year Bund yield reached its highest level since 2011. French yields also hit their highest level since 2009. And Britain’s 30-year borrowing cost was nearing the peaks that were set in May and marked the highest levels ever since 1998. Bond prices fall when the yield of a bond rises. Kjersti Haugland is the chief economist of investment bank DNB Carnegie. She said that bond markets have entered a period where inflation and rates are more uncertain, and upside risks are higher. This marks a departure from the low-rate and subdued-inflation post financial crisis period. She said that the high levels of government debt, especially in Japan, the U.S.A., France, and the UK, coincided with the selling. Analysts said that the competition for capital among AI hyperscalers - the technology giants who are building massive data centres - combined with the rising budget deficits, and in the United States the concern over clear communication by the Federal Reserve under the new chair Kevin Warsh, all contributed to the selling. The sale of government bonds has ripple effects throughout the economy, since sovereign debt is used to set borrowing costs for businesses and other loans like mortgages. Financial conditions are also tightened by rising borrowing costs, which could halt the economic growth responsible for stock market record highs. Entering a danger zone? U.S. Treasury 10-year yields are currently trading at 4.74% and have previously attracted attention from U.S. officials. Guy Miller, chief market strategist at Zurich Insurance Group, said: "This is very important not only for the bond markets but also for other financial assets, as any break upwards will likely undermine confidence." The U.S. Treasury is likely to defend this level given its importance. Treasury." Analysts believe that the Treasury's unusual choice to sell euros instead of dollars during a recent joint intervention with Japan in order to support a weakening yen indicates it doesn't want to see bond market tensions worsened as a result of foreign central banks selling Treasuries for currency-support operations. Treasury Department data released on Monday showed that foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries fell in June. The decline was led by Japan, the largest foreign holder of U.S. Bonds, the UK, and China. The yields of two recent Treasury auctions have also attracted attention. The sale of 10-year bonds cleared at a rate of 4,683%, which is the highest yield in 19 years. And the 30-year bond ended at 5,216%, a peak of 25 years. The rising tariff refunds are putting further pressure on the U.S. public finances, following the Supreme Court's ruling that President Donald Trump was not entitled to impose emergency tariffs last year. Changes in Japan's dynamics are attracting Japanese investors who are traditionally large buyers of U.S. bonds. This is creating a new headwind on the U.S. Bond Market. Charu Chanana is the chief investment strategist of Saxo Bank, based in Singapore. She said that Japanese bond yields are at a much more competitive level, and she noted?the fall in Japan's U.S. Bond holdings in June. Washington cannot assume that foreign demand at yesterday's yields will be sufficient to absorb any additional supply. Rising yields made the bond market attractive to some investors. We are short on duration. Christopher Dembik, Pictet's senior investment advisor, said that he did not expect the current bond sale to last. In Europe, where high ?government spending and high debt have weighed on France and ?Britain, concern that climate events will add to spending pressures was also a factor, ?along with inflation and stronger-than-expected growth. Benjamin Schroeder, senior rates strategist at ING, said that the ECB is not only concerned about oil prices. There's a broader picture of inflation that keeps them hawkish. The heatwaves in Germany have led to extreme drops in Rhine levels.
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Stocks and bonds are jolted by Middle East tensions that disrupt the calm market
The sell-off of U.S. government bond prices accelerated?on? Tuesday. This sent the 30-year Treasury yield to a two-decade?high as inflation fears and stock pressure were fueled by?fears?of an escalation?in the Middle East conflict. Brent crude oil prices rose for a third day in a row, after Washington and Tehran's latest signals crushed hopes that the Middle East conflict would be resolved soon. The market's response shows that tensions remain high in the Middle East, and a new escalation could have a ripple effect on oil, bonds, currencies, and stocks. The Federal Reserve's recent rate hikes were tempered by a recent run of'soft data? in the U.S. According to CME FedWatch, traders see a 34.6% probability of a "hike" at the Fed meeting in September, down from 48.4% one week earlier. George Bory is the chief investment strategist at Allspring Global Investments. He said that if "things unravel and conflict escalates," a mid-cycle rebalancing would be necessary. The yield of the U.S. 30-year Treasury bond increased by 1.42 basis points to 5.3232%. This is its highest level in nearly 20 years. The 10-year Treasury bond traded at 4.7339%, up 0.99 basis point. Pressure spread to the other major government bonds markets. The yields on Japan’s 10-year government bonds were close to hitting 3%, the first time in the late 1990s. Meanwhile, euro zone bond rates were at multi-year records. The STOXX Europe 600 Index fell by 0.52%, to 653,01. Futures for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and other Wall Street indexes fell by 0.50%, 1.22% and 0.50%, respectively. MSCI's global stock index fell 0.26%, to 1,153.64. High bond yields may make stocks less appealing and increase borrowing costs for companies that invest heavily in AI infrastructure. The CBOE Volatility Index (Wall Street's fear gauge) hit its highest level in more than a fortnight. The strategists of Gramercy Funds Management have written that the unresolved standoff is a good reason to maintain hedges against a renewed volatility in oil prices and inflation. Investors will also be waiting for the minutes of the Fed's latest policy meeting scheduled to be released Wednesday. Next week, the central?bank will hold a Jackson Hole Symposium to discuss its interpretation of recent economic data. The minutes of FOMC meetings are arguably more important than the policy statements of the FOMC and the press conferences of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, according to Jonas Goltermann of Capital Economics. The Federal Open Market Committee is the Fed's interest-rate-setting body.
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Nigeria's Dangote refinery IPO gets $1 billion underwriting programme, advisers say
On Tuesday, two advisers to the Dangote 'Petroleum Refinery Initial 'Public Offering (IPO), announced a $1 billion programme of underwriting for this offering. It could be Africa's biggest. Marob Strategies and Consulting DIFC Ltd and Lilium Capital Group stated?in a press release that the programme consisted of a?completed and funded $600,000,000 private placement and a?underwriting committment of $400,000,000 in support for the planned IPO. Sources familiar with the situation told us this month that the refinery owned by Africa's richest person Aliko 'Dangote' has filed an application for a $5 Billion IPO at Nigeria's Securities and Exchange Commission. However, the size of the deal has not been decided. The plant is a major beneficiary of the disruptions caused by the Iran War, selling?jet fuel in Africa and western Europe to buyers who sought out?alternative sources. Marob Strategies and Lilium 'Capital announced that the $400 million IPO commitment would be implemented upon the launch?of the IPO, subject to market conditions and regulatory approvals.
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Morning Bid AMERICAS - Yields give way
What's important in the U.S. and Global Markets Today By Mike Dolan. Editor-at-Large for Finance and Markets The bellicose rhetoric and energy prices rose on Monday, just as the markets were beginning to think that the Iran conflict had reached an impasse. Brent crude reached $91 per barrel over night as Iranian officials spoke of shifting into a "fully offensive" mode and maintaining a tight grip on Strait of 'Hormuz. Below, I'll go into more detail. Check out my most recent column to see why financial officials still worry about the sustainability and growth of the AI market, despite Wall Street's booming performance. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast where we discuss the rising yields on long-dated government bonds. Subscribe to the Morning Bid daily podcast and hear our journalists discuss all of the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks. YIELDS GIFT WAY U.S. president Donald Trump took a uncompromising tone on Monday with Tehran, ruling out extending the 60-day Memorandum of Understanding agreed in June. He even threatened to bomb Oman as he felt its talks with Iran would interfere with U.S. military goals. This suggests to the markets that the Gulf energy blockage could continue for weeks, or even months. The already uneasy situation on the oil markets, and government bonds that are under pressure from inflation, will become even worse as winter approaches and people feel more energy-strapped. Long-dated government bond prices have been slashed again by the prospect of increased inflation and fiscal offsets, which could increase?sovereign borrowing. On Tuesday, the 30-year U.S. bond yield reached its highest level in 19 years, while German, French, and Japanese long-dated bonds also hit multi-year highs. The moves were surprising, given that Fed rate hike betting had decreased after a string of weak economic and inflation data over the last week. The Fed may be afraid that it will not be able to bring inflation back to its target. This could explain the rise in long-dated yields. All of this has dampened equity markets in the early hours of today. Asian shares closed lower on Tuesday, and Wall Street futures were down before the bell. Home Depot will report its second-quarter results on Tuesday, and this is the first of a series of reports from U.S. retailers, including Target and Walmart, later in the week. Chart of the Day President Donald Trump’s approval rating fell to its lowest level during his current presidency. According to an Ipsos survey that was concluded on Monday, a majority of Americans are concerned that the U.S. War?with Iran is likely to last for a long time. Only 33% of respondents to the four-day poll approved of Trump's White House performance, while 64% were disapproving. Around 80% of Americans, including 87% of Democrats and 70% of Republicans, believe that U.S. involvement with Iran will continue for a long time. The latest poll shows that 38% of voters believe Democrats will handle the economy better than Republicans, while 35% prefer the Republican approach. Watch today's events Housing starts (8:30 A.M. EDT), industrial production (9:15 A.M. EDT) are all based on the U.S. EDT), industrial production (9:15 a.m. EDT) Home Depot: a major U.S. corporation Want to receive the Morning Bid every morning in your email? Subscribe to the newsletter by clicking here. Follow us on LinkedIn, X and ROI. The opinions expressed by the author are their own. These opinions do not represent those of News. News is bound by the Trust Principles to maintain integrity, independence and freedom from bias. (By Mike Dolan).
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Copper prices fall on LME stock builds and weak China data
The price of copper fell on 'Tuesday. It eased from the six-month high reached in 'the previous session. London Metal Exchange inventories rose for a second day, and the market digested disappointing data derived from China, its largest consumer. As of 0900 GMT, the benchmark three-month LME copper was down by 0.8% to $14,036 per metric tonne. After the LME stock data was released, it briefly fell below $14,000. It lost as much as 1,1% to $13,997. Data showed that another '17,450 tonnes of copper entered LME warehouses Monday. This included 7,250 tons from the U.S., and 3,000 in Hong Kong. There were also 2,575 tones of reverse cancellations. This increase comes after a smaller build on Friday, which took total LME Copper stocks to a record high. After a long draw, the total weight of coal has risen to 223,550 tonnes. This is still less than half what it was in May. The deliveries were made as the LME cash copper contract reached a new record on Monday, and traders tried to capture the steep premium it offered over the three-month future. . Last traded at $362 per ton. This is down from $545 a day earlier, but it's still a steep spread. China's factory production grew by 4.5% from a year ago in July, falling short of expectations. Fixed-asset investments in?the nation, including investment in key copper-consuming industries like real estate and infrastructure, declined?6.7% during the first seven-month period of 2026. "Weaker-than-expected economic data in China weighed on sentiment across the base metals ?sector," Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ, said in ?a note. Aluminium fell 0.8%, to $3,239.50 per ton. Zinc dropped 1.3%, to $3.719.50, and tin declined 0.7%, to $55,355. Nickel gained?0.3% at $16,885 and lead edged up 0.1% at $1,889.50 after an Indonesian spokesperson stated that the planned exchange of strategic and mineral commodities in the country would include nickel. (Reporting and additional reporting by Solomon Cefai, Singapore; editing by Rashmi aich and Harikrishnan Nair.)
As inflation and fiscal concerns take hold, bond markets grip from US to Japan
The cost of borrowing long-term from the United States for Japan and Germany reached their highest level in decades on February 2, as new inflation concerns?added lingering fears about fiscal pressures in major economies. This dealt bond markets a "fresh blow".
The 30-year bond yields on the United States' government bond market, which is considered to be one of the most important in terms of systemic importance, reached their highest level since 2007. Oil prices rose above $90 per barrel, causing inflation fears as U.S. peace hopes with Iran faded.
In Japan, the fear of inflation and expectations that Bank of Japan would raise interest rates in September pushed benchmark borrowing costs for 10-year bonds to a three decade high of just under 3%.
In Europe, Germany's Bund yield reached its highest level since 2011 while French yields hit their highest levels since 2009. Bond prices fall when the yield of a bond increases.
Charu Chanana is the chief investment strategist of Saxo Bank, Singapore. She said that "the market demands a higher premium for holding long-term government debt".
Analysts said that the recent sales were due to a combination of factors, including the competition for capital by AI hyperscalers who have increased their?bonds sales in this year. This, coupled with the rising budget deficits as well as concerns about the Federal Reserve's new chief Kevin Warsh and the lack of clear communication, are all contributing factors.
As sovereign debt is the benchmark for corporate borrowing and other loans, such as mortgages, the selloff of government bonds, which is exacerbated by inflation, has ripple effects throughout economies.
The persistently higher yields of U.S. bonds sold last week also highlighted investor appetite for government debt against the backdrop of increasing fiscal deficits.
U.S. Treasury 30-year yields last traded at around 5.32%, but they rose nearly 40 basis points in the last month, their largest monthly increase since December 2024.
Data from the Treasury Department showed that foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries fell in June. The declines were led by Japan, UK, and China.
Japan is the biggest foreign investor in U.S. Bonds.
Rising bond yields in Japan, where borrowing costs for 30-years are just over 4%, are also starting to attract Japanese investors back home, who were traditionally major buyers of U.S. government debt.
Chanana noted that "JGB yields have become more competitive due to the normalisation of policy by the BOJ," referring to the fall in Japan's U.S. Bond holdings.
"That doesn't mean Japan has abandoned Treasury bonds, but Washington cannot assume that additional supply will be consumed at yesterday's rates."
(source: Reuters)