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Oil prices drop on lower demand forecasts, despite deadlock between US and Iran talks

Oil prices drop on lower demand forecasts, despite deadlock between US and Iran talks
Oil prices drop on lower demand forecasts, despite deadlock between US and Iran talks

Oil prices dropped more than $1 Thursday as forecasters reduced global oil demand projections by 2026 due to disruptions caused by the U.S./Israeli war against Iran. However, the supply constraints created by the conflict helped keep the market stable.

Brent futures fell $1.29 or 1.5% to $87.69 per barrel at 0100 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), which is a blend of U.S. West Texas Intermediate and Brent, fell $1.30 or 1.6% to $81.97.

In its monthly report on the oil market, published on Wednesday, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) lowered its forecast of world oil demand growth for 2026 from 588,000 barrels per day to 580,000.

The International Energy Agency also said that it expected a 1.6-million-bpd reduction in consumption this year. This is down from a previous forecast of 1,000,000 bpd, due to the U.S./Israeli war against Iran, which has led to higher prices and restricted fuel supplies.

The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that oil prices were also being impacted by a sudden build-up in U.S. crude oil inventories. These had posted their largest weekly increase since January 2023, as exports plummeted.

The EIA reported that crude inventories increased by 17.4 millions barrels, to 424.4million barrels during the week ending August 7. This is the highest level since June 5. Analysts had expected a draw of 1.4 million barrels based on a poll.

Prices are still high due to the deadlocked talks between Iran and the U.S. about ending the Gulf war.

On Wednesday, a senior Iranian source stated that there was no progress made in the talks to revive and implement the interim agreement reached in June.

The attacks on Tuesday on the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and Bab el Mandeb, two vital export routes for Middle Eastern gas and oil, highlighted the risk that remains for the crude supply.

Analysts at Haitong Futures wrote in a report that the safety situation in these waters had deteriorated further, forcing ships to turn off their signal, which "reduces visibility in shipping" and makes it harder for the market and its analysts to track and estimate actual supply levels. (Reporting and editing by Christian Schmollinger; Sam Li, Lewis Jackson)

(source: Reuters)