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Markets expect key US inflation data
Gold edged up on Tuesday, after reaching a?peak? of more than two months earlier. Market participants are awaiting important U.S. Inflation figures that may influence expectations about the Federal Reserve’s policy. Gold spot was up 0.2% to $4,396.87 an ounce by 11:05 am EDT (1505 GMT) after reaching its highest level in the session since June 5, at $4434.84. U.S. Gold Futures rose 0.8% to $4456.10. The market will be looking at this week's data to confirm that inflation is under control, said Peter Grant, senior metals analyst and vice president of Zaner Metals. He added that a moderated annualized CPI would continue to support gold. After Friday's?weak U.S. July jobs data, markets lowered their bets on the Fed raising rates next month. This led to a 2.4% gain in gold. Grant stated that "gold is still reasonably well bid as of this point, in light of the disappointing jobs data last week which has eroded expectations regarding a rate hike in September." According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders still price in about a 50 percent chance of a hike in September, and 79% in December. Beth Hammack, the president of the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank, said that she believed it was the right time to start raising rates slowly to avoid needing to make sharper increases in the future. Gold that does not yield tends to be less attractive in an environment with higher interest rates. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, responded to Tehran's demands for a?peace?deal with his own. He demanded that Iran?pay compensation to those who died in wars, attacks and protests. Oil prices remained near their one-week high. Other metals include spot silver, which fell 1%, to $65.1 an ounce. Platinum eased by 0.1%, to $1.750.50. Palladium dropped 0.7%, to $1.372.75. (Reporting by Sukanya Mitra in Bengaluru. Mark Potter (Editing)
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Stocks rise as oil prices continue to rise in anticipation of a possible US-Iran agreement
The oil prices rose and global stocks were up on Tuesday as traders focused on the negotiations between the United States and Iran on a peace agreement and the reopening of Strait of Hormuz. Gains were tempered by uncertainty over the?global inflation forecast. In an interview with Bloomberg News, Pakistan's defence minister stated that the U.S. is close to a "sort of arrangement" between Iran and Pakistan. The MSCI index of world stocks rose 0.10% to 1,154.40. The escalating tensions between the two countries have been a focus of attention. Oil prices jumped 5% Monday as a result. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, responded to Iranian demands for a deal by imposing his own. He demanded that Iran pay compensation to those who died in wars, protests and attacks, which could complicate efforts to reopen this vital waterway. Brent crude futures are up 5% over the past two days, and the benchmark global price is currently at $87.92. U.S. crude oil gained?0.16% at $82.26. Tony Sycamore is a market analyst for IG. "You can probably see the (oil market) sitting in the $75-$95 range while we wait to see who blinks the first." Wall Street saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average rise 0.03%, to 53,990.87, and the S&P 500 gain 0.09%, to 7,760.26. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.03%, to 26,597.85. INFLATION DATA The U.S. consumer price report for July will not include the latest rise in energy prices, but it can still be used to set expectations?for September's Federal Reserve Meeting, where money markets indicate a 50% chance of an increase. Jonas Goltermann is the chief market economist at Capital Economics. He said: "We believe that risks are skewed in favor of a hot print. This would likely drive a recovery in rate expectations, and potentially, new worries about stagflation." The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes dropped 1.38 basis points from 4.698% to 4.684%. The 30-year bond yields fell by 1.02 basis points, to 5.2328%. However, they remained close to the 19-year highs reached in July. The yield on benchmark German Bunds of 10 years fell by 2.52 basis points, to 3.152%. Focus on TECH STOCKS Overnight, 'Nvidia' announced that it had teamed with six major financial institutions, including BlackRock and Apollo, to create a series of funding measures totaling more than $500 billion, for AI infrastructure. The plan did not provide much detail in terms of financial terms, commitments to invest or how $500 billion could fit into existing financing deals. "A small piece of me wondered if this was how it felt when sub-prime loans first became mainstream products - the innovation which ultimately helped trigger the GFC," Sycamore said. Intel, meanwhile, raised $20 billion in a share offering, its first since 1971, when the chipmaker listed. Intel shares fell 0.5% in the last trading session. The yen has been in the spotlight again. The yen was last up 0.4% against the US dollar but it remained below the highs of last week of 155.20. This is after several suspected rounds, including a move by Japan and United States. The holiday season in Japan led to a thinner trading volume than usual. This is often seen as an opportunity for intervention as small trades have a greater impact on price than normal. The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket including the yen, the euro and others) rose by 0.04%, to 99.81. Meanwhile, the euro fell 0.01%, to $1.1541. Gold, which is up 8% this month so far, rose 0.12% on the day to $4,393.69 per ounce. (Rae Wee contributed additional reporting from Singapore; Clarence Fernandez edited the story with Toby Chopra, Kate Mayberry and Nick Zieminski.)
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Argentina's YPF increases investment forecast to $6.2 billion by 2026
YPF, the Argentinean oil company, is planning to invest up to $6.2-billion in 2026. This is higher than its previous estimate of $5.8-billion, said CEO Horacio Martin on Tuesday during a presentation for investors. The executive said that YPF now projects EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) of $8 billion for this year. This is a significant jump from the 'previous estimate' of $6 billion. He said that the increase in EBITDA was due to a rise in oil prices. YPF is the leader in the Vaca Muerta Formation, which has the second largest unconventional shale-gas reserve and the fourth-largest shale-oil reserve. YPF reported a net 'profit' of $1.21billion in the second quarter 2026, compared to $58m a year ago. The company cited higher shale shale production, record shale processing levels, and a rise in international prices. The country depends on the formation's growth to 'boost' the country's foreign currency reserves, which are needed to'stabilize its economy, reduce inflation and pay back heavy debts to IMF.
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Markets expect key US inflation data
The price of gold edged up a little bit?on Monday after reaching a'more than two-month high earlier.?Market participants are awaiting important U.S. Inflation figures which could influence expectations about the Federal Reserve policy path. Gold spot was up 0.1% at $4,393.69 an ounce, at 09:37 am EDT (1337 GMT), having hit its highest level in June at $4,434.84. U.S. Gold Futures increased 0.8% to $4453.40. The market is waiting for this week's data on inflation to confirm that the inflation rate is under control, said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals analyst at Zaner Metals. He added that a moderated annualized CPI would?continue support gold. After the weak U.S. July jobs data, which was released on Friday, led to a reduction in bets on the Fed raising rates next month and a 2.4% gain on gold each day, it is likely that Wednesday's consumer price report as well as Thursday's producer price data will influence monetary policy expectations. Grant stated that "gold is still reasonably well bid as of this point, in light of the disappointing jobs data last week which has eroded expectations regarding a rate increase in September." According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders still price in a probability of 48% for a hike in September and 78% in December. Beth Hammack, President of the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank, said that she believed the time was right for a gradual increase in rates to avoid a need for a sharper increase later. Gold that does not yield tends to be less attractive in an environment with higher interest rates. In the geopolitical arena, U.S. president Donald?Trump has responded to Tehran's demands for a peace deal by requesting that Iran pay compensation to those who have died in wars, terrorist attacks, and protests. Oil prices retreated despite signs of progress made in Oman and Iran talks?over shipping via the Strait of?Hormuz, as they were weighed against the ongoing disruption of Middle East energy supplies. Silver spot fell 1.4%, to $64.81 an ounce. Platinum dropped 0.2%, to $1749.51, while palladium declined 1.3%, to $1364.75. (Reporting by Sukanya Mitra in Bengaluru. Mark Potter (Editing)
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Sources say that Russia's Sibur Petrochemical Plant in Western Siberia was shut down after a drone attack.
Three industry sources have confirmed that the Sibur Zapsibneftekhim Petrochemical Complex in Tobolsk (in western Siberia's Tyumen region) was damaged by a drone attack on Monday. Sources said that the plant, Russia's largest liquefied gas plant, was closed indefinitely while the damage and its effects were assessed. Regional Governor Alexander 'Moor' said on Monday that an industrial site had caught fire in the Tyumen area following a drone attack, but he did not name the facility. Sibur declined to comment on an inquiry. The St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange has not offered any LPG deliveries from the Tobolsk loading station on Tuesday. In the first half of this year, 4,000 metric tonnes per day were regularly sold from Tobolsk. Zapsibneftekhim, according to industry sources, produces approximately 6 million metric tonnes of?LPG per year, which is about 40% of Russia's total LPG production. About half of the LPG produced at the site is used as feedstock in the petrochemical plant at Sibur Tobolsk.
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South Africa mine dump collapse kills 14 illegal miners, police say
Police said that at least 14 suspected illegal miners were killed and eight injured when a mine-dumping site collapsed on Monday in South Africa's North West Province. Arthur Peter Adams, the provincial police commissioner, said that search and rescue operations are underway for an unknown number of people trapped near Rustenburg. Adams stated that the collapse happened as miners were digging for platinum group metals in a 'disused dump' on a private company site. Lesotho is a country in Southern Africa. The nationality of the deceased has not yet been confirmed. South Africa has been plagued by illegal mining for many decades. It can range from small-scale thefts to operations run by organized criminal networks. Undocumented'miners' often enter abandoned commercial mines in order to extract the remaining deposits. Illegal mining costs the government and mining industries hundreds of millions?of dollars each year as a result of lost sales, taxes and royalties. (Reporting by Siyabonga Sishi. Nilutpal Timsina is reporting from Johannesburg. Alexander Winning, Mark Potter and Mark Potter (Editing)
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Ukrainian prisoners describe torture and sexual abuse they suffered while detained in Russian custody
Former Ukrainian detainees as well as Ukrainian officials have accused Russia of torturing civilian and military?detainees. They also said that they held them incommunicado, subjected them to electric shocks, and sexually abused thousands of people. Russia has rejected the allegations that were made during an informal U.N. Security Council Meeting. Its Deputy U.N. representative Maria Zabolotskaya called it "a campaign of disinformation" and claimed that Russian prisoners held in Ukraine had been subjected "to torture and degradation, and moral and physically abuse." Khuan Levya-Garsiya is still an active member in the Ukrainian military. He claims that his Russian captors tortured him for 1,183 days. "Yes ... "I was tortured," said he to reporters after the U.N. conference. "Anything that you can imagine, which is hurtful or humiliating, could be done to a male, without his consent. You can imagine anything, including verbal abuse, physical abuse and electrocution. All the things that could be done to someone in order to break them mentally. All of it was applied to me, and many of my "comrades." Garsiya told the U.N. meeting that he had been lucky to have survived, but two of his close friends died in Donetsk detention centers. He told the U.N. that prisoners were kept in "overcrowded bars without adequate conditions" where "almost everyone was ill with dysentery," and many of them were starving. He said that guards were targeting him because of his Latino surname, accusing him?of being "a mercenary, and an American spy." Leniie Umerova is a Crimean Tatar activist who was released as part of a prisoner swap in 2024. She said that she had been detained when trying to visit her seriously-ill father in Crimea. She said she was moved through "seven prisons" in a "carousel" of repression and accused Russia for torturing Ukrainians held in captivity. Oleg Gushin, the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War of the Ukrainian Government, said that Ukrainian prisoners are "tortured and killed" while in custody. He claimed that Kyiv identified "more 300 places of detention in Russia and on occupied Ukrainian territory" and while "thousands", if not "thousands", Ukrainians were still in Russian captivity. Volodymyr Pavlichenko, Ukraine's Charged d'Affaires, called for increased international pressure on Russia to hold it accountable for the treatment of its prisoners. "WIDEPREAD AND SYMPATHETIC" U.N. Assistant Secretary-General for Human Rights Claudia Fuentes Julio stated that U.N. monitoring showed "widespread, systematic torture and ill treatment of Ukrainian prisoners-of-war and civilian detainees continues by the Russian Federation Authorities," including sexual violence. Since February 2022 the?U.N. The Office of the United Nations' High Commissioner for Human Rights documented the executions of 129 Ukrainian POWs at the start of their captivity, and the deaths in custody of 48, which resulted?from torture or denial of medical treatment, or from other inhumane detention conditions, she said. She stated that more than 95% Ukrainian prisoners of war interviewed had reported torture or mistreatment. She said that more than half of respondents also reported sexual abuse, such as "rapes, gang-rapes, beatings while nude and beatings on the genitals." She stated that the?U.N. She said the?U.N. Fuentes Julio stated that the OHCHR also documented torture and ill treatment of Russian and foreign nationals held as prisoners of war by Ukraine but on a "fundamentally different scale." She stated that about half of Russians and other third-country detainees interviewed had reported abuse in the initial stages of their captivity. (Reporting and editing by Stephen Coates; David Brunnstrom, Andrea Shalal)
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Andy Home: Copper's Congo-panic says more about copper and Congo than ROI-Copper
Doctor Copper had a panic episode last week when the Democratic Republic of Congo banned exports of cobalt and copper concentrates. On the news, London Metal Exchange (LME), three-month copper jumped to a six-month high at $14,369.50 a metric ton. Cash price reached a record high of $14.453.60 per metric ton as spreads tightened simultaneously. Despite Congo being the largest supplier of battery metal in the world, there was no reaction from?the CME cobalt prices. Cash cobalt ended Friday at $25.99 a lb, a 0.9% drop on the previous week. It is easy to understand the cobalt market indifference. Congo does not export cobalt concentrates but rather cobalt hydrxide, a product intermediate that is already subjected to export quotas. Congo exports very little copper concentrate and focuses instead on refined metal. Kinshasa banned the export of copper concentrate on three occasions in the past, but granted repeated exemptions to miners. Copper's acute sensitivity at any sign of disruption in supply is the real story here, not Congo's ambition to move further down the value-chain. Tightening the screws The copper deposits in Congo are ideally suited to electrowinning. This means that most operators can convert the metal they mine directly into metal. According to StoneX analysts, 82% of Congo's total production last year was produced on-site as refined copper. Kinshasa, however, has not hidden its intention to process the remaining concentrates itself. The two first export bans, in 2013 and 2019, failed because the Congo lacked a large-scale smelting capability. Rolling waivers enabled concentrate exports to continue. The investment from China's state owned mining company CNMC, and Yunnan Copper, enabled the country to get its first modern smelter by 2020. Lualaba's smelter is capable of processing?400,000 tons per year but that amount does not cover Congo's production. The 2023 ban on exports also included waivers. This was especially true for the "giant Kamoa Kakula mine complex", a joint venture of Ivanhoe Mines and Zijin Mining Group, which began producing in 2021. Ivanhoe agreed to build a new steel smelter in exchange for the money. This it did. The company reported that the massive plant, which can produce 500,000 tons per year, was put online in January last year. It has been operating at 60% capacity since February. In the first half 2026, China's copper concentrate imports from Congo dropped by 31% on an annual basis. Congo's processing deficit should be reduced as the smelter increases. In case this doesn't happen, the new ban allows for "strategic waivers". SUPPLY SENSITIVITY Goldman Sachs says that the latest export ban won't have a "material impact" on global copper markets. It will however tighten a raw materials market that is already under pressure. Smelter processing charges have fallen due to fierce competition in the copper concentrate market. Copper bulls are accustomed to the smelter pressure, which is why they reacted so strongly to last week's announcement. London's market is the most sensitive to supply-side disruptions, as it is caught in the middle of China's gravitational pull and the United States, with its even greater force, due to the threat of import tariffs. LME copper stock has fallen from 401,000 tonnes in early May to just 214,550, with 58% of the total held as cancelled warrants, awaiting actual load-outs from exchange warehouses. Another 138.408 tons of Copper are in LME off warrant storage. 79% of the shadow stock is at U.S. Ports, ready to be cleared through customs, if the CME Delivery Premium over the?LME increases. Time-spreads are tightening as a result of the tension in London. The benchmark cash-to-3-month spread has fallen from its highs of last week, but the outright price of copper is still up. The cash premium has gotten tighter. On Monday, cash premiums reached $171 per ton, the highest since October of last year. Doctor Copper's panic is unlikely to be the only one if LME stocks continue to?drain away eastwards and westernwards. Andy Home is a columnist at. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
Helen Jewell: ROI-AI is not a threat to equity diversification
Investors are searching for diversifiers as the AI market becomes more crowded. Several options are hidden in plain sight.
The massive spending on AI in the last year has boosted earnings for corporations. Companies associated with this splurge, as represented by an iShares?ETF, have seen their?stocks double from?June of 2025 to this June before a recent drop. BlackRock reports that the "momentum factor" - which is where winning stocks continue to?win - has outperformed all other factors over the last five years. It gained nearly 200%. Diversification is not a strategy that has been rewarding. This could change. Goldman Sachs says that the AI market is the most crowded ever. This has led many investors to wonder which parts of the market could offer an alternative if this AI boom fails.
Three options are available.
First, healthcare. The current global equity index strategy is not as diverse as you would expect. According to our analysis of global stock returns over the last 12 months, the MSCI All Country World Index has a correlation with AI stocks of 0.79 and with the momentum factor of 0.76, which means that the?returns are closely related.
Healthcare stocks had a negative correlation with AI of 0.06 and a momentum factor of 0.12. There was, in other words almost no correlation between the movement of AI stocks and that of healthcare stocks over the last year.
It is clear that healthcare has been a good diversifier. We expect healthcare to continue to play a role in protecting portfolios from downturns, due to its long history of strong earnings growth. Long-term changes such as the demographic shift and innovation in medical technology, as well as pharmaceuticals, continue to boost profits.
In the past 30 years, the strength of healthcare earnings has translated into higher valuations for healthcare compared to the market. AI's dominance over the last few years has led to healthcare trading at a discount of 15%.
We believe that while healthcare offers attractive valuations and strong earnings, it is important to be selective. According to?FactSet & BlackRock, the healthcare sector had more stock-specific volatility than any other sector last year.
We prefer companies that embrace technology change. Combining large?medical data with AI models could, for example speed up the detection and treatment. This will not change, even if AI as a whole fades.
OLD ECONOMY, NEW CASE
Latin America is the second. Investors have mostly overlooked equity markets in Latin America, which have had a low relationship with AI and momentum over the past few years. According to BlackRock, Latin America accounts for just 0.8% in the MSCI ACWI but 7% in global GDP. This gap could close in the next few years, according to BlackRock.
Brazilian and Mexican shares are also trading below their historical values, while most major markets are at a premium. Interest rate cuts in the near future, which would benefit their domestic economies, as well as, on a longer-term basis, rising commodity demand due to?AI and electricification, could be catalysts for a rating reassessment.
The UK, my home market, has a low correlation with AI of 0.26 and has proven resilient to market turmoil over the past few years, fueled by the COVID-19 Pandemic, geopolitical conflict, and inflationary spikes.
Over the last five years, the FTSE 100 outperformed the global stock market on a total returns basis - without having much or any exposure to pure AI.
The UK market is characterized by its exposure to sectors of the "old economy", which are less susceptible to disruption from AI, including financials, materials and energy. As with healthcare, there are many reasons to believe that these sectors will benefit from AI. This could be through cost-cutting in banks or increased demand for copper due to AI and electrification. After a decade of six different prime ministers, political stability could be a catalyst to help UK stocks close the gap in valuation with developed markets. Stability could lead to greater economic confidence, which would encourage domestic investors to buy UK stocks in addition to foreign investors.
This diversification strategy carries a risk: AI could continue to grow while diversifiers, which are meant to protect portfolios, drag down performance. Although there are many reasons to be optimistic about the three above areas over the long-term, there are not many catalysts that will lead to AI outperforming them in the near term.
The AI trade could stall, either due to fears of over-investment or an unforeseen event. We've seen a drop in the U.S. Semiconductor Index just this month. Holding stocks to help weather the storm seems sensible.
(source: Reuters)