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MORNING BID EUROPE - Oil swept on Troubled Waters

MORNING BID EUROPE - Oil swept on Troubled Waters
MORNING BID EUROPE - Oil swept on Troubled Waters

Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets.

The week has started off with a shaken market as Iran and?United States trade wars in the Gulf while Tehran claims that it closed the vital Strait of 'Hormuz. The strait of?Hormuz is a vital waterway for commercial traffic. According to U.S. officials, 20 ships have been escorted by U.S. officials in the past 24 hours.

The UKMTO reported that transits were already down to 10 on Friday. Ship tracking sites also showed that there were no ships in the narrowest section of the strait by Monday or, at least, none with transponders turned on.

Brent and U.S. oil rose almost 4% and 10-year yields increased by 2 basis points. The dollar also gained in value. The Nikkei led Asian stock markets lower and European share futures are down about 0.6%.

Nasdaq Futures fell 0.6% as investors focused more on the upcoming earnings season, and if high expectations for chipmakers and AI-related companies can be met. The major banks will begin their earnings season on Tuesday. Netflix and General Electric also have a lot to look forward to.

Analysts at BofA warned that the AI capex boom is eroding the cash generation. Hyperscalers have spent $234 billion in this year, and the free cash flow for the future will be negative for the very first time since 2007.

Investors are also pointing to the possibility of an interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve just one day before Chairman?Kevin Warsh will be addressing Congress for the very first time as his new role.

The headline inflation rate for June could be lower than the 4.2% reported on Tuesday, as petrol prices fall. However, some of this will reverse once oil prices rise again.

The dollar strengthened to 162,05 yen on Monday, regaining ground lost last Friday after Japanese Finance Minister Satsukikatayama floated a?idea? to encourage the Government Pension Investment Funds (GPIFs) of $1.8 trillion and other retirement vehicles to bring home some of their cash.

The pound has eased to $1.3381 in anticipation of a crucial week for UK politics. Andy Burnham will be officially?anointed on Friday as Labour leader and named as Prime Minister on July 20.

Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact

- Appearances of Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller; Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman; ECB Member Isabel Schnabel; Bank of England Executive director Ruth Smith

(source: Reuters)