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Oil and stock prices are rising as investors look to Iran. The yen is at a 40-year low against the dollar
Oil prices rose as well as the global stock market index on Monday, as investors watched the implementation of the interim peace agreement between Iran and the U.S. Wall Street led gains in equities, with?technology?shares rebounding following concerns over AI expenditure that triggered a sale last week. A source said on Monday that the technical teams from Iran and the United States working on the implementation a peace agreement interim are expected to meet at Doha within the next few days. This is after the weekend strikes threatened the accord. Brent and WTI crude oil both rose on the day, but were still down sharply for the month. Recent U.S.-Iranian attacks have highlighted the fragility of this interim agreement, and expectations of an increase in energy shipments via the Strait of Hormuz has injected volatility to the markets. "I think that reality is beginning to sink in. Not every barrel will come out of the Gulf within the next two weeks. You can't jam as many barrels as you possibly can through there to pre-war level. Bob Yawger is the director of energy futures for Mizuho. He said that as long as the situation remains risky, boat owners run the risk of being attacked by pirates as they travel through the Strait. Brent crude futures settled at $73.15 per barrel, up $1.16 or 1.61%. WTI crude oil in the United States gained $1.52 or 2.2% to $70.75. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 306 points or 0.59% to 52,182.44, while the S&P 500 increased 86.36 points or 1.17% to 7,440.38. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite gained 522.53 or 2.07% to 25,820.14. The MSCI index of global stocks rose 9.78 points or 0.89% to 1,112.38. Richard de Chazal, William Blair's macro-analyst, said: "The scattered conflict continues with Iran. It appears to be following the established pattern of increased tensions over the weekend until they are resolved before Monday's open of markets." Both the pan-European STOXX 600 and Europe's broad FTSEurofirst 300 indices ended with a loss of less than 0.1%. The Nikkei 225 rose 107.23 or 0.15% to 69,468.11 while the emerging market stocks rose 2.81 or 0.16% to 1,709.21. RATE HIKE WAGERING Oil prices fell sharply in recent months, but inflation measures in the U.S. jumped and expectations of an upcoming Federal Reserve rate increase have boosted the dollar. The dollar index (which measures the U.S. against other currencies) was down last week by?0.27% at 101.09; this is just below its 13-month high. The euro rose 0.37% to $1.1425. There are still many risks on the oil market. Participants appear to be... focusing their attention on the impact of a continued increase in oil flow on global balance,"?ING analyst said in a Monday note. This week, the U.S. economic focus will be on Thursday's employment report for June. Three ?consecutive months of stronger-than-expected payrolls have reinforced ?the Fed's hawkish shift, though any cooling in the labor market could prompt a more dovish reassessment. Investors have priced in at least a Fed rate hike this year. This is a dramatic change from the expectation of two rate reductions before the Iran War. Marc Chandler, Bannockburn Global Forex's chief market strategist, said that the?labor market has accelerated. "The doves' concerns about the labor market slowing down have now passed." The Japanese yen reached 161,97 per dollar, the weakest level since 1986. It was last hovering around 161.94. Analysts at LMAX Group stated in a report that "the Bank of Japan's much-anticipated 25 (basis-point) rate increase to 1.00% did?little" to offset the wide interest rate differential between Japan and the United States. This is especially true after the Federal Reserve maintained its hawkish stance, and signaled rates would likely remain high for longer. Gold was down by 1.8% at $4,014.59 per ounce due to the rising dollar. The metal is on track for a 14 percent decline in the second half of this year, which would be its largest quarterly drop since 2013. (Reporting from Ankur Banerjee, Harry Robertson and Rodrigo Campos, in Singapore; Additional reporting by Karen Brettell & Georgina McCartney. Editing by Daniel Wallis & Nick Zieminski.
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Rights group: North Korea's sanctioned trade in coal is resurgent as UN monitoring fails,
A Seoul-based rights group reported on Tuesday that North Korea's sanctions against coal and minerals have rebounded in the absence of United Nations oversight. This has been sustained by forced labour, and a shipping network that runs through China and Russia. In a joint report with the British research group Data Desk (Citizens' Alliance for North Korean Human Rights), the NKHR alleges that the trade has accelerated ever since Russia vetoed a renewal of an independent UN panel which monitored Pyongyang's compliance with sanctions in March 2024. The group used satellite imagery to count large?ships in five major North Korean port and found that their number increased nearly fivefold from 783 in 2019 to 3,756 by 2025. The group counted all cargo ships with the ability to transport other goods, such as iron and weapons. The number of vessels seen at Nampo's busiest port, and the main coal gateway, increased to over 3,000 in 2019 from just 554 the year before, which is the highest ever recorded by the group. After the UN oversight collapsed in 2019, sanctioned ships docked at foreign ports more frequently, with 25 visits in 2018 compared to four last year. The coal trade, it was said, is almost exclusively run by companies linked to the North Korean Ministry of National Defense. This ministry directs earnings to military and security agencies that operate the mines and prisons in the country. Ji-yoon Lee is a co-author and said that everything was interconnected - forced labour, goods produced, and international security threats. "They're all in one group, and it is very hard to track." According to the report, mines are occupied by political prisoners, soldiers who do not get paid, and 'descendants' of South Korean POWs who never returned to their homeland after the conflict of 1950-53. This is an estimated 50,000 to 80,000 people, bound to mine work by a caste system. The findings were also based on 22 interviews conducted with former prisoners, North Koreans who escaped and?former government officials. The diplomatic mission of North Korea in Beijing has not responded to a request for comment. According to Yoo Yong Won, a People's Party legislator, the UN banned North Korean coal imports in 2017. However, South Korea's National Intelligence Service estimated that North Korea still exported about 1.5 million tonnes?last?year, with its origin suspected of being?falsified as Russian?to increase sales to?China?and other buyers. NKHR called this figure a “bare minimum,” noting that a large bulk carrier can hold about 39,000 tonnes and that 1.5 million tons is less than 40 shipments a calendar year.
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Osaka beats Jacquemot with a 'Kill Bill-inspired' kimono walk on
Naomi Osaka has made a mark at Wimbledon Day One?with her first-round win over Elsa Jacquemot. She?caught the attention of fans with an eye-catching Japanese inspired outfit. The four-time Grand Slam champion walked onto the Court '3 wearing an all-white Kimono, the?traditional national costume of Japan. She wore a kanzashi, a traditional Japanese hair ornament. Before revealing a white Nike dress, she wore a kimono. The kimono was designed by Tokyo designer Hana Yagi and featured in British Vogue as the tournament began. Osaka said to reporters after her win that the outfit was inspired by her culture and Wimbledon's strict dress codes, which require players to wear white clothing from the moment they step onto the court. Wimbledon is the oldest and all-white tournament. She said, "There's the tradition and the history of the tournament. I also think about my culture and heritage which is Japanese and Asian. If I dig deeper into Japanese culture, I think the most iconic silhouette for me, the kimono." I was thinking of my favorite movies. I was thinking about my favourite movies. I loved 'Kill Bill', but I also remembered how much I loved Lucy Liu and her all-white kimono. I thought that was amazing and really cool. "It's my interpretation and also my love and respect for Japan." Osaka's tennis was the focus of attention when the match started. She won four of nine breakpoints and fired 34 winners in the 79-minute thrashing of Frenchwoman Jacquemot. The foot injury that had hindered the former world number 1,?who retired during the Bad Homburg Final against Karolina Mostova last week?, did not show any obvious signs. Next, she takes on Anastasia Gasanova and?Emiliana Arano. Osaka made headlines with an outfit inspired by jellyfish at the Australian Open this January, as well as a yellow-brown-and-gold dress during the French Open. (Reporting and editing by Alison Williams; Amy-Jo Crowley)
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Gold falls as tensions between the US and Iran spark inflation and rate hike concerns
Gold prices fell on Monday, as renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran?lifted oil prices?and sparked inflation fears. This boosted expectations for higher interest rates. By 2:00 pm, spot gold had fallen 1.7% to $4.020.68 an ounce. ET (1800 GMT), following a fall of more than 2% in the earlier session. Last week, gold had hit a seven-month low. U.S. Gold futures for August delivery were 1.4% lower, at $4.038.9. The market is still adjusting to the Fed's more hawkish stance, said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals analyst at Zaner Metals. Iran fired missiles and drones on Sunday at U.S. military bases in 'Kuwait' and 'Bahrain, just hours after U.S. president Donald Trump had threatened to wipe out the Iranian leadership if they failed to abide by the final peace deal. Brent crude futures climbed following the attacks. Gold is traditionally regarded as a safe-haven metal, but the higher energy costs due to the war has raised fears of inflation and increased interest rates. This would put pressure on the non yielding metal. The U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady this month. However, policymakers are expecting a rate hike in the second half of this year due to growing concerns over inflation that is above the 2% target set by the U.S. Central Bank. The U.S. Dollar was on its way to the biggest monthly gain it has seen in almost a year. Gold becomes more expensive to overseas buyers when the?dollar is stronger. Market participants are now awaiting ADP employment data, which will be released on Wednesday, and U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Data on Thursday to get more clues about the Fed's monetary policy stance. Grant said that "(Gold's) price could fall to new lows, if employment data continues to look strong. This would support the Fed's position of keeping rates higher for longer." The traders are pricing in a 63% chance that interest rates will rise in September. Silver spot fell 1.6% per ounce to $58.19, while platinum declined 2.1% to $1.580.45. Palladium rose 1.1% to $1222.24. (Reporting by Sukanya Mitra in Bengaluru; Editing by Joyjeet Das, Chris Reese and Vijay Kishore)
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Proxy advisors win third legal victory to stop Republican anti-ESG rules
A federal judge granted a preliminary order on Friday, blocking an Indiana law that requires new disclosures by proxy advisers. This is the third legal victory for Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) and Glass Lewis in their fight against Republican legislators' restrictions. Both firms offer advice on how shareholders can vote at annual corporate meetings. Republican politicians have long been sympathetic to business concerns about executive compensation. Recently, they have also claimed that the firms favor shareholder resolutions that focus on environmental, governance, or social (ESG) issues like climate change and workforce diversity. Three recent cases where proxy firms gained the upper-hand - Indiana, Kansas and Texas this month - suggest that these efforts are still slow-moving. Indiana's law, which is set to come into effect on July 1, required firms to submit a written financial analysis of their reasoning if they recommended voting against management. Supporters said that it was necessary to keep the advice focused on financial results. The two firms, in separate filings, alleged that the law violated their rights. This included their right to freedom of speech. Matthew Brookman was the U.S. District Judge for the Southern District of Indiana on Friday. He agreed, among others, with plaintiffs that the law amounts to "viewpoint discrimination", because it only imposes burdens if proxy firms disagree with the management. Indiana Attorney General Todd Rokita's representatives, who were defending the law and defended it, did not reply to comments. In a press release, ISS praised Brookman for his decision to overturn a law that it called an "unconstitutional exercise in power over the market." The firm cited other similar federal rulings which blocked efforts to rein in proxy advisors in Kansas and Texas. In the last year, Texas, Kansas and Indiana courts have granted preliminary orders barring?states from enforcing similar laws that were pushed by advocacy groups. This latest decision is further 'evidence' that states?cannot impose onerous requirements on proxy advisors for simply making recommendations that don’t align with company management,' ISS stated. Glass Lewis' spokesperson confirmed via email that it was pleased with the recent decisions. This person stated that "These rulings protect core First Amendment principles, rejecting speaker and viewpoint discrimination, and ensure we can deliver the objective research our clients expect." The federal court cases in?Kansas and Texas remain pending. ISS and Glass Lewis?also?sued a Kentucky similar rule to stop enforcement. Florida sued ISS and Glass Lewis separately over allegations of consumer protection and antitrust, which they both deny. ISS has vowed that it will fight similar lawsuits in four other states.
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Police in Senegal fire tear gas on constitutional reform protesters
The Senegalese Police fired tear gas to disperse scores of protesters on Monday outside the parliament. This was as lawmakers discussed a constitutional amendment that critics say could upset the balance of power within government. The proposed changes include a clause that prohibits a president in office from being the leader of a party. A coalition of politicians supporting the President Bassirou Diomaye Faye called for an?immediate withdrawal?of this bill. The change was approved by lawmakers on Monday, but any amendments must be subjected to a referendum first, according to the Minister of Justice, Moussa sarr. The governing Pastef Party, led by Ousmane sonko (former prime minister and parliament speaker), has been pushing for constitutional reform. Faye is also a Pastef member, but has no official role within the party. This amendment will make it harder for him to start his own political party before the next elections. Sonko was ousted as Prime Minister by Faye in May. Faye's disagreement with?Sonko over how to approach reforms, and?the way to deal with a growing debt crisis? has deepened political divisions. Faye, a populist leader with a?strong youth following who was barred from running due to a conviction for defamation, was elected in 2012, supported by?Sonko. (Reporting and editing by Diadie B and Anait Miridzhanian, Jessica Donati, Aidan Lewis and Susan Fenton).
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Gold falls as tensions between the US and Iran spark inflation and rate hike concerns
Gold prices fell on Monday, as renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran?boosted?oil?prices and sparked inflation fears. This boosted expectations for higher interest rates. Spot gold fell 1.5%, to $4.025.83 an ounce at 12:12p.m. ET (1612 GMT), following a fall of more than 2% in the earlier session, and a recent low of more than seven months. U.S. Gold Futures for 'August Delivery' fell by 1.4% to $4 040.70. The market is still adjusting to the Fed's more hawkish stance, said Peter Grant, senior metals analyst at Zaner Metals and vice president. Iran launched drones and missiles on Sunday at U.S. military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. This came after U.S. president Donald Trump had threatened to eliminate the 'Iranian leadership' if they failed to adhere to the terms of a final peace deal. Brent crude futures have risen following the attacks. Gold is traditionally viewed as a safe-haven metal, but the higher energy costs due to the war has raised fears of inflation and increased interest rates. This would put pressure on the non yielding metal. The U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady this month. However, policymakers are expecting a rate hike in the second half of this year due to growing concerns over inflation that is above the 2% target set by the U.S. Central Bank. The U.S. Dollar was on its way to the biggest monthly gain it has seen in almost a year. A stronger dollar makes gold expensive for foreign buyers. The market participants are now awaiting ADP's employment data, which will be released on Wednesday, and the U.S. nonfarm payrolls figures on Thursday to get more clues about the Fed's?monetary policy stance. Grant said that "(Gold's) price could drop to new lows, if employment data continues to look strong. This would support the Fed's policy of keeping rates higher for longer." Traders have priced in a 64% chance of an interest rate increase in September. Silver spot fell 1.8%, to $58.11 an ounce, and platinum dropped by 2.3%, to $1,576.90. Palladium rose 0.8% to $1.218.67. Sukanya Mitra in Bengaluru, Joyjeet Das & Chris Reese (Reporting and Editing)
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Short-dated yields are mostly higher, as crude prices rise; the focus now turns to employment data
The yields on short-term U.S. Treasury bonds were mostly higher Monday as crude prices increased following the?attacks? between the U.S. U.S. crude jumped 1.34%, to $70.15 per barrel. Brent went up to $72.77 a barrel, a 1.08% increase on the day, as the attacks threatened to undermine a fragile peace deal. However, expectations of continued energy shipping through Strait of Hormuz held gains in check. A source said on Monday that the Iranian and U.S. teams working on the implementation a interim peace agreement?are likely to meet in Doha within the next few days. This week will bring a series of labor market?data, culminating on Thursday with the Labor Department's June payrolls report. As expectations of inflation pressures easing have increased, yields have been declining in recent days. This has offset what was perceived as a hawkish Federal Reserve announcement and press conference on June 17 by the new?Fed chairman Kevin Warsh. Jim Barnes, Director of Fixed Income at Bryn Mawr Trust, said: "The data this week on the labor market is interesting to me, but now the focus is more on inflation." Because energy prices are down materially, inflation expectations have also dropped. The market, particularly after the Fed's meeting, is not satisfied. They need to see concrete evidence of inflation falling. BENCHMARK YIELDS HIGHER EDGE After falling for three weeks in a row, the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note increased 0.4 basis points to 4.376%. Several Fed officials said last week they are still worried about high inflation. The yield on 30-year bonds fell 0.3 basis points to 4.862%. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool the markets are pricing in a 29,4% chance that a rate increase of at least 25 basis points will occur at?the Fed’s July 28-29 Meeting and a 61,9% chance for September 15-16 Meeting. The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury, which moves typically in line with expectations of interest rates from the Fed, increased 1.9 basis points, to 4.107%, and was on track for its 1st daily gain following 4 straight declines. The gap between the yields on two-year and 10-year Treasury bills, which is seen as an indicator of economic expectation, was positive by 26.7 basis points. The five-year U.S. Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) brokeeven rate was 2.244%, after closing at a 2.223% level on June 26. The 10-year TIPS rate of breakeven was 2.215% last, which means the market expects inflation to average 2.2% per year over the next decade. (Reporting and editing by Paul Simao; Chuck Mikolajczak)
Oil and stock prices are rising as investors look to Iran. The yen is at a 40-year low against the dollar
The global stock market index rose Monday, as investors watched the implementation of the interim peace agreement between Iran and the U.S. Oil prices also rose as tit-fortat attacks highlighted the risk of escalation. Wall Street was the biggest gainer, with technology shares recovering after last week's fallout due to concerns about AI spending. After several days of attacks in the Middle East, after an Iranian projectile struck a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz on last week, both sides have accused each other of violating an interim ceasefire. Brent and WTI crude oil both rose on the day, but were still down sharply for the month. Recent U.S.-Iranian attacks have highlighted the fragility of this interim agreement, and expectations of an increase in energy shipments via the Strait of Hormuz has injected volatility into the markets.
"I think the reality is beginning to sink in. Not every barrel will come out of the Gulf within the next two weeks. You can't jam as many barrels into the Gulf to pre-war levels. Bob Yawger is the director of energy futures for Mizuho. He said that as long as the situation remains risky, boat owners run the risk of being attacked by pirates as they pass through the strait. U.S. crude climbed 1.86% to $75.52 a barrel while Brent rose 1.19% to $72.85 a barrel. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 362.86 points or 0.70% to 52,238.97. The?S&P500 rose 81.02 or 1.10% to 7,435.04 while the Nasdaq Composite increased 484.31 or 1.91% to 25,781.93. MSCI's global stock index rose by?9.27 or 0.84% to 1,111.87. Richard de Chazal, William Blair's macro-analyst, said: "The scattered conflict continues. It appears to be following the established pattern where tensions are heightened into the weekend and then resolved before Monday's open." The pan-European STOXX 600 was flat, while Europe's FTSEurofirst 300 broad index increased 1.87 points or 0.07%.
The Nikkei 225 rose 107.23 or 0.15% to 69,468.11 while the emerging market stocks rose by 3.06 points or 0.18%.
RATE HIKE WAGERING Oil prices fell sharply in recent months, but inflation measures in the U.S. jumped and expectations of an upcoming Federal Reserve rate increase have boosted the dollar. The dollar index (which measures the U.S. currencies against other currencies) was slightly lower last week at 101.25. This is just a little below the 13-month peak it reached last week.
The oil market is still rife with risk. Participants appear to be... focusing their attention on the impact of a continued recovery in crude oil flows on global balance," ING analyst's said in a Monday note. This week, the U.S.'s economy will be dominated by Thursday's June jobs report. Three consecutive ?months of stronger-than-expected payrolls have reinforced the ?Fed's hawkish shift, though any cooling in the labor market could prompt a more dovish reassessment. Investors have priced in at least one Fed rate hike this year. This is a dramatic reversal of expectations that two rate cuts would be made before the Iran War.
Marc Chandler, Bannockburn Global Forex's chief market strategist, said that the?labor market has accelerated. "The doves' concerns about a slowing labor market seem to be over." The Japanese yen has hit its lowest level since 1986, at 161,97 per dollar.
The Bank of Japan’s 25-basis-point rate hike has not been enough to reduce the wide?interest-rate differential with the United States. This is especially true after the Federal Reserve maintained its hawkish stance, and indicated that rates would likely remain high for longer.
Gold fell 1.9%, to $4,010.32 per ounce, due to the rising dollar. The yellow metal will experience a 13% drop in the second quarter. This is its largest quarterly decline since 2013. (Reporting from Ankur Banerjee, Harry Robertson, and Rodrigo Campos, in Singapore; Additional reporting from Karen Brettell, Georgina McCartney, and Aidan Lewis; Editing, Andrew Heavens and Mark Potter; Daniel Wallis, Aidan Lewis and Andrew Heavens)
(source: Reuters)