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Stocks fall, bond yields increase; Fed maintains rates but projects hike later this year

The Federal Reserve kept the benchmark rate unchanged and officials now expect to raise borrowing costs later this year due to rising inflation fears. Kevin Warsh, the Fed's new chief, took over last month and opened a whole new era. In his first press conference, he said that the forward guidance wasn't "well-suited" to current economic conditions. Officials projected that the policy interest rate would increase by a quarter percentage point at the end of the year. The rate has been in the range of 3.50-3.75 since December last year. A revised policy statement did away with language that indicated the possibility of "further reductions" in borrowing costs for this year. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, after the meeting, the short-term U.S. rate futures priced in a higher probability that the Fed would raise rates as soon as September, rather than keep them at their current level. Kay Haigh is global head of Fixed Income and Liquidity Solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, New York. She said that today's meeting confirmed the Fed's recent shift to a hawkish stance was not only about higher energy prices. "Despite recent oil price declines, half of members of the FOMC are expecting rate hikes this year due to strong inflation and labor market data." The 10-year Treasury yield rose 3 basis 'points to 4.461%, and the 2-year Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to market expectations of Fed rate actions, jumped 16 basis points to 4.207%. This was its highest level since February 2025. Treasury yields had been little changed in the morning. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 507.12 points or 0.98% to 51,492.55, while the S&P 500 lost 91.25 or 1.21% to 7,420.10, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 354.69 or 1.34% to 26,021.66.

SpaceX shares are down for the very first time since their debut on the market last Friday. The stock fell 4.9%. MSCI's global index of stocks fell 7.18 points or 0.64% to 1,121.12. The pan-European STOXX 600 ended the day up 0.52%. As with the Fed, the Bank of England will meet on Thursday, and no policy change is expected. Instead, the focus will be on the tone of the policymakers' comments. Following the Fed announcement, the?dollar gained strength across the board. The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket currencies, including the yen, and the euro) rose by 0.5% to reach 100.01, its highest level in almost a week. The euro dropped 0.5% to $1.1549. The oil prices rose. U.S. president Donald Trump defended the interim agreement he made with Iran. He said it had prevented a global economic disaster, but warned he would launch new attacks if Tehran did not honour its commitments. Brent crude futures rose 59 cents or 0.75% to settle at $79.55 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate increased 74 cents or 0.97% to $76.79. Recent drops in oil prices have begun to calm fears of an economic slowdown, especially in Europe which imports energy. International Energy Agency (IEA)?said that the oil market would move into a significant surplus in 2027, after recovering from the Strait of Hormuz closure. Gold spot fell by 1.71%, to $4255.97 per ounce. Investors digested the data that showed U.S. Retail Sales jumped by 0.9% in May after a downwardly-revised 0.4% increase in April.

(source: Reuters)