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The weekly copper price is up on the back of mine supply concerns and China demand
Copper prices were on track to gain a weekly % of?1.5% this Friday. This was due to concerns about mine supply disruptions and signs of active demand from?China, the top consumer. By 0948 GMT, the benchmark three-month price of copper at the London Metal Exchange had risen by 1.2% to $14,473.50 per metric tonne. Yangshan Copper Premium This week, the price of copper in China reached its highest level in four years, after the country returned from its week-long vacation. The Shanghai Futures Exchange monitors copper inventories in warehouses. The end-of-week stock level was 58,744 tonnes, an increase of 20,000 tons over the previous week. Exchange data revealed that copper stocks at the LME registered warehouses fell to a six-week-low of 233.025 tons, after daily outflows totaling 4,700?tons. This was mainly due to warehouses in Taiwan and Hong Kong. Since 2025, copper prices have been supported by the constant transfers of metal to Comex warehouses, especially in the last six months. This is due to uncertainty about potential US import tariffs for refined copper. Comex inventories are at a record high of 711 609 tons. Cash copper contracts ended Thursday with a $97 per ton premium over the three-month contract. Morgan Stanley stated in a report that "any slowdown in US stocks could make the markets feel looser. But China's demand has been resilient, and supply is experiencing significant disruptions." The union representing Antofagasta’s?Centinela mine in Chile has said that the strike will?begin affecting output in November. Antofagasta initially downplayed its impact, but this situation has increased the risk of disruptions at other mines. Aluminium and lead, among other LME metals, rose by 1.1% each to $3,085 a ton and $1,880 per ton. Zinc rose 1.7% to $3.781.50. Tin increased 2.1% to $52,305. Nickel climbed 1.2%, to $15,730.
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AI-related companies drive the majority of third-quarter US earnings increases
US companies will likely deliver a third-quarter earnings surge, and AI-related players, like the stock market rally, are driving most of these gains. Investors are excited about the hyper-growth of AI companies, but they are also concerned about the future of the share price and how long this trend will continue. According to Tajinder dhillon, LSEG’s head of earnings research and equity, analysts expect S&P500 earnings to increase by 31% in the third quarter. Two-thirds will come from the tech sector, including AI giants Alphabet and Amazon.com, as well as Meta Platforms. The S&P 500 reached a new record this week, ahead of earnings season. This is expected to begin unofficially next?week when banks such as JPMorgan Chase or Goldman Sachs report their results. "It is all AI, and to a lesser degree, energy and material, but this is because of geopolitics,"?Sameer samana, the head of global equity and real assets at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. It wouldn't be surprising if 70-80% growth could be attributed tech and AI. The US oil price has risen by roughly 30% during the third quarter due to the ongoing US-Israeli conflict with Iran. Samana pointed out that the?earnings estimates for the third-quarter are among the lowest. Strategists are unsure if the third-quarter growth in earnings can match the explosive growth seen in the second quarter. Most companies beat analyst's estimates and this is likely to continue in the third quarter. LSEG data shows that the S&P 500's earnings grew by 54% in the second quarter, the highest growth since 2021. LSEG data showed that excluding mark-to-market gains from Alphabet and Amazon.com for AI-related investments the growth rate was still about 35%. This is the highest level since 2021. Anthony Saglimbene is the chief market strategist of Ameriprise Financial. He said that investors should be concerned because we're approaching "peak earnings growth" in this cycle. "A lot is this AI trade built on continuing capex spending. Every quarter, as they continue to do so, the hurdle rates and scrutiny get higher." Dhillon, based upon LSEG data, said that earnings for US semiconductor firms, which are among the largest beneficiaries of the AI boom will?have risen by about 136% compared to about 158% during the second quarter. Nick Raich is the CEO of Earnings Scout. Three months ago, we were going 150 miles per hour. Raich stated that the latest reports, including those from Micron Technology, were strong and suggested other companies continue to "reap the benefits." Micron, a chipmaker, forecasted quarterly revenue that was above expectations and said customers had boosted their commitments to its long-term supply agreements up to $32 billion. This week, Google signed a huge power deal with Constellation Energy. Investors will also be paying close attention to the impact of higher interest rates on corporate profits during this earnings season. The US bond yields are rising due to concerns over inflation, high oil prices, and debt problems elsewhere. Samana warned that heavy borrowers such as utilities are at risk.
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Campaign group warns that the new Congress in Brazil poses a threat to environmental legislation
According to a report by the climate advocacy group Observatorio Do?Clima that found almost 70% of elected legislators have no or little interest in environmental issues, Brazil's new Congress will likely pose a greater obstacle to legislation protecting the environment after elections this month. The study examined bills, legislative initiatives, speeches, and public statements made by newly elected and reelected legislators. It concluded that 64 out of 81 senators have demonstrated a "very low" commitment to environmental issues. In the lower chamber, 345 out of 511 legislators were placed in the same category. According to the study, the Liberal Party, which is home to Flavio Bolsonaro (a right-wing senator) who will be facing President Luiz Inacio Lula in a presidential runoff later this month has the lowest environmental credentials of all major parties. Bolsonaro defeated Lula in a first round despite pollsters' predictions, but he didn't get enough votes to prevent a second ballot. The environmental commitment of all 28 senators and lower house members who were elected by the party on Sunday was rated as very low. The study also found that other right-leaning political parties, such as?Novo and Republicanos, Progressistas, and Uniao Brasil showed low support for environmental issues. Observatorio do Clima stated that environmental advocates may face a more 'challenging' political landscape if Bolsonaro, whose previous?comments about climate change caused concern, is elected President. I contacted the parties named but did not receive a response. The group said that proposals to weaken environmental protections, such as measures to reduce protected lands, allow mining on Indigenous land, and ease licensing requirements for environmental matters, could gain "traction" under the new Congress. Suely Araujo is the public policy coordinator for the group. She said, "This image shows four years of hard work by those who are focused on climate and environment issues."
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Trump's comment that Iran can 'take out Los Angeles' was misinterpreted
US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that comments he made about Iran being able to "take out" California cities were misinterpreted. He was referring instead to the need for people to tolerate higher gasoline prices. Trump made these remarks on Monday at a Nebraska political rally, where he talked about the economic sacrifices of Americans during World War II. "Remember that the 'war' is artificial, it costs a lot, but it's worth it," he said. "It is a small price to pay in order to keep the world and our country safe. They could take out an entire city. Let's?take Los Angeles out, let's?take San Diego out. It's a small price to pay and it will be over very soon." California's Democratic Leaders and some Republican colleagues quickly condemned the remarks. Trump stated in a Truth Social posting on Thursday that "a temporary increase in Gasoline prices is a small price to be paid for Iran not having a nuclear weapon." "If you want to see a huge price, can you imagine what would happen if they bombed San Diego and/or Los Angeles?" He continued by saying he loved both cities. Trump has dismissed concerns about cost of living stemming the Iran conflict in the past.
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US to rescind methane policy against oil and gas industry
The US Environmental Protection Agency announced on Wednesday that it would be scrapping the Biden-era regulation aimed at curbing large leaks of'methane' from oil and gas operations. The move is part a broader effort by the Trump administration to reduce regulations, which it claims burden US businesses in its quest to increase fossil fuel production. "Americans should be able to afford heating their homes during the winter and filling up their cars to drive to work." The people who produce the energy cannot?do this when they are burdened by unnecessary burdens," EPA Administator Lee Zeldin stated in a press release after announcing the decision at a meeting with representatives of the oil and gas industries in New Mexico. The "super emitter program" of the EPA requires that companies react when third parties use remote sensing to report suspected methane leaks. After taking office in 2017, the Trump administration?delayed implementing this policy until next. EPA claimed that its proposal to rescind this?rule could save $45 billion a yearly. The oil and gas industry, which is a major source of methane, is responsible for the second largest?cause?of climate change?after carbon dioxide. Environmental groups have criticized the move. In a statement, Mahyar Sorour of Sierra Club's Beyond Fossil Fuels said: "This giveaway is foolish and shortsighted. It reveals to whom the Trump administration works - its political donors."
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US seizes $3 Million in fuel shipments from Cuba as crackdown continue
The US announced on Wednesday that it had seized 90 separate shipments of biodiesel bound to Cuba, worth nearly $3 million. This is the second time this week US authorities have announced the seizure "illegal" fuel en route to Cuba. The Trump administration is continuing to choke off Cuba's energy industry, only allowing small amounts of fuel to be shipped to the private sector on the island in an effort to undercut the Cuban government. Jose Figueroa, Special Agent in Charge of Homeland Security Miami, told Miami reporters on Wednesday that the seized cargo was destined for Enetec, an Enetec-based state-owned fuel firm sanctioned earlier this year by the US. The authorities said that they intercepted fuel shipments at Port Everglades in south Florida and Houston before they left the US. Homeland Security reported that more than 600,000 gallons were seized. Figueroa stated that "an effort of this magnitude to undermine US sanction is not an accident." These actions are aimed at shipments that could benefit the Cuban government through a state controlled entity. Anyone who attempts to undermine US laws to fund, facilitate or profit from such an effort should be put on notice. Cuba's government didn't?comment immediately on the fuel seizure. Cuba's communist-run government has called the Trump administration's blockade of fuel on Cuba "economic war" and "illegal". The blockade has exacerbated the ongoing problems of blackouts, shortages of water and inflation on the island, pushing it towards a humanitarian catastrophe. US President Donald Trump stated openly that his goal is to overthrow Cuba's government with the?blockade & sanctions. Last week, the US Coast Guard announced that they had intercepted in September a large container vessel carrying fuel bound for Cuba. The Coast Guard said that the ship was attempting to evade authorities, and had large amounts of fuel hidden within its ballast tanks. In either case, the US has not disclosed the identities of the exporters.
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Russia claims that Ukraine has struck two nuclear facilities at Zaporizhzhia
The head of Russia's state nuclear corporation said that despite the fact that Ukrainian drones had attacked two facilities at Zaporizhzhia, a Russian-held nuclear power plant in southeast Ukraine, there was no danger to nuclear safety. Alexei Likhachev said that a driver who was delivering food to plant workers had been killed by the drone attack. Likhachev said that a laboratory and a plant for the processing of radioactive waste were targeted. Ukraine has yet to comment on the incident. The plant's management announced on?Saturday that Ukrainian shelling in recent weeks has damaged the external power supply equipment. Electricity is currently provided by emergency diesel generators. The plant does not produce electricity, but it needs two external links for power to cool nuclear fuel. In the first few weeks of the war, which began with Moscow's invasion of its smaller neighbor in February 2022, Russia captured the?plant - Europe's biggest with six reactors. Since then, Moscow and Kyiv accuse each other regularly of military actions that compromise nuclear safety. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN's nuclear watchdog has repeatedly taken action to ensure a ceasefire surrounding the plant so that repairs could be made to the lines connecting the facility to the main grid. UN monitors are at the Zaporizhzhia and three other plants in Ukraine. Maria Zakharova of the Russian Foreign Ministry wrote on her ministry's website that the West was enabling Ukrainian aggressions by not publicly condemning them. Zakharova wrote that "Kyiv has intensified its shelling of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant because Western countries have not responded appropriately to these actions, effectively facilitating new assaults." "Such an attitude toward strikes by the Ukrainian military shows the true 'value' of statements made by representatives of these nations about nuclear and physical safety at international forums."
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The top cases in the US Supreme Court docket
US Supreme Court will hear a number of important cases in its new term, which begins Monday. These include issues like President Donald Trump's Immigration Policies, the ban on assault-style rifles, the financial responsibility of Big Oil for climate change and Republican-backed voting restriction. This is a list of some of the cases that are being argued in the current term. The term runs until the end of June. Big Oil Climate Suit ExxonMobil, Suncor Energy and Boulder officials argued on October 5, attempting to "thwart" a lawsuit filed by Boulder officials. The Justices grappled with the complex question of whether local governments should be allowed to hold oil companies responsible for harms caused by climate change. After Colorado's highest court allowed Boulder to sue them for violating state laws and seeking unspecified damages, the companies filed an appeal. Trump's administration supported the companies. The justices expressed concerns over unduly restricting the power of states to pursue litigation related to climate change, and the potential for chaos if local government across the nation were allowed to sue these corporations. The ruling is expected to be made by the end June. TRUMP'S MANDATORY DETENTION OF IMMIGRANTS The court will determine the legality Trump's policy, which subjects millions of illegal immigrants living in the US to mandatory detention while deportation proceedings are underway. Trump's policy of mass deportation includes this policy. The Supreme Court heard the Trump administration appeal of a lower-court ruling that ruled against the policy, in a case concerning a Brazilian citizen. The US administration has abandoned its long-standing interpretation of federal laws that allowed immigrants living in the US to be released under bond until their cases were heard in immigration court. Dates for the arguments have not been set yet. The ruling is expected to be made by the end June. DEPORTATIONS TO A THIRD COUNTRY BY TRUMP In December, the justices will hear arguments over the Trump administration’s policy to deport migrants to "third countries", or other nations than their home country. They won't give them the opportunity to demonstrate the harms that they might face. On September 29, the court allowed the Trump administration to continue its policy, suspending a federal judge’s ruling that deporting migrants to third-country countries was illegal. Human rights groups claim that more than 25,000 migrants were deported under this policy to 29 different countries. The ruling is expected to be made by the end June. Ban on assault-style rifles On December 2, the justices will hear arguments in a challenge against state prohibitions of 'assault style rifles. This case involves a weapon type that is often associated with mass killings. The lower courts in Cook County Illinois and Connecticut upheld the bans on powerful semiautomatic weapons such as AR-15s. Lower courts rejected arguments that these measures violated the US Constitution's Second Amendment rights to "keep and bear arms." Gun rights groups, as well as other opponents, have argued that Supreme Court precedents regarding the Second Amendment protect firearms in "common usage." The end of June is the expected date for a ruling. Voting Rights On December 8, the justices will hear arguments in a Republican led bid to reinstate voter restrictions in Arizona. This would require proof of citizenship for all voter registrants, and purge voter lists in Arizona from alleged non-US citizen voters. Republicans appealed a lower court's decision to stop certain provisions of Arizona law for violating federal voting registration laws. The Trump administration has supported key aspects of the appeal. The Arizona measure, according to critics, adds additional mandates for voting which unfairly targets Latinos and Native American voters. These groups tend to support Democratic candidates. The ruling is expected to be made by the end of June. LGBT RIGHTS On November 3, the justices will hear arguments in an appeal by the Archdiocese of Denver, and other Catholic entities, to be exempted of a Colorado program that funds preschools' nondiscrimination requirements. A lower court ruled that Colorado's program didn't violate the First Amendment rights of the Catholic plaintiffs. State funds are provided for preschools. The Catholic plaintiffs objected that the state required schools receiving funding through the program to give all children an "equal chance" to enroll in pre-school, regardless of certain characteristics. This included the sexual orientation of students and their families. The ruling is expected to be made by the end June. EPIC GAMES SUE AGAINST Apple Apple will try to avoid being found in contempt by the justices in its legal battle with Epic Games, the maker of "Fortnite". The iPhone maker had been found to be in violation of an order from a court ordering sweeping changes in its lucrative App Store as part the antitrust litigation. Apple appealed the ruling of a lower court that upheld a federal judge's decision in Oakland, California finding Apple in contempt for Epic's lawsuit against App Store fees. Dates for the arguments have not yet been announced. The ruling is expected to be made by the end June. PEPSICO TRADEMARK CASE The court will hear arguments regarding a claim by Rise Brewing, a maker of canned coffees, to hold PepsiCo responsible for an alleged trademark violation involving Pepsi’s morning energy beverage "Mtn Dew Rise." Rise Brewing appealed the ruling of a lower court that rejected the company's claim the name "Mtn Dew Rise," infringes on its trademarks, and confuses customers with its coffee brand. No date has been set for the arguments. The ruling is expected to be made by the end June.
The U.S. uses an Iranian smuggling technique to sneak oil from the Gulf
US military has conducted a number of secretive oil transfers between ships to maintain Gulf energy exports. They have used aerial and water drones, as well as helicopters, in an operation that guides convoys to waiting tankers. The US military operation near the Strait Of Hormuz uses a technique that Iran has long used to avoid sanctions.
Eleven people with knowledge of the operation identified two specific locations for the oil transfer - one off Fujairah, in the United Arab Emirates, and the other off Sohar's port in Oman.
According to satellite images and shipping data, the transfer began in early May. At least 116 vessels were involved. Satellite imagery shows that as recently as Tuesday morning 12 pairs of ships were seen side by side in the Gulf of Oman. Eight of them off the coast of Sohar, Oman, and four near Fujairah. Images from last week show that on June 11, the activity peaked and 17 pairs of vessels were seen simultaneously transferring oil at both sites. Four sources, including an ex-U.S. official who was aware of the attack, said that the Apache helicopter shot down by Iran on the 9th, which sparked retaliatory U.S. bombings, played a role in the mission. Six pairs of tanker vessels were grouped together on satellite imagery in a small area near the port of Sohar, the day that the Apache helicopter was shot down.
Could not confirm the role of the Apache in the operation. A U.S. Defense official responded to questions by saying that no Central Command forces were involved in the offshore ship-toship oil transfer operations. U.S. officials confirmed that a drone boat rescued both crew members.
Previously, the Apache's involvement in the operation, the extent of the transfers and how they operate, as well as the Apache's role, had not been reported. Centcom was contacted by the White House. The Iranian government has not responded to inquiries about the transfer operation. These two locations, located in the Gulf of Oman, near the exit of Strait of Hormuz are very close to the borders drawn by the Persian Gulf Strait Authority. This is a new Iranian body established to manage the Hormuz Strait. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps may use drones and missiles to attack ships that do not comply with Iran’s orders. Fujairah has experienced repeated Iranian attacks during this U.S. led operation. According to British maritime risk management company Vanguard, a "unknown projectile", which struck a tanker near the coast of Oman, hit 'this past weekend. Vanguard stated in a press release that the crew was safe, and the impact had caused some cargo leakage but not environmental damage. The statement did not say whether the tanker had been involved in a transfer from ship to ship. Iran's response to the U.S./Israeli conflict was to effectively close the Strait of Hormuz. This is where roughly a fifth of the world's oil consumption passes. This caused the largest global energy disruption in history, and sparked inflation all over the world. Ship-to-ship transfers are part of Trump?administration efforts to restore normal oil flow from the Gulf, even though they're risky and inefficient. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that Friday would be the reopening of Strait of Hormuz under a framework agreement with Iran announced earlier this week. Details are still vague. It was not possible to determine if the announced agreement had affected oil transfers. An investigation published on May 20 revealed that Iran had established its own system to guide ships through the Strait. This involved island checkpoints and diplomatic deals, as well as sometimes fees.
STAGGERED Departures and Waypoints
Eight sources confirmed that the U.S. Military is in full control of the American transfer operations, including the private security contractor involved with the transfers.
According to satellite imagery and one source, tankers are required to sail to a rendezvous point before reaching the strait. They then stagger their departures to be around 3,000-4,000 meters apart. Four sources claim that their transponders and lights have been dimmed.
One source said that the Americans "are obviously?watching" you at all times.
The oil transfer begins when the tankers pass through the Strait just beyond the zone Iran has designated as its own. Many of the ships are Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs). The oil transfers take anywhere between 24 to 40 hours. The VLCCs are then loaded and sail through the Strait.
This ship-to ship operation is possible because a few shippers are willing to navigate their vessels through this strait in order to deliver oil to waiting tankers despite the Iranian ban.
The operation is dangerous. Noam Raydan is a Washington Institute senior fellow who specializes on maritime risk. He reviewed the findings.
Iran has used the ship-to-ship method for years in order to avoid sanctions because it hides the source. Iran usually operates one pair of vessels at a given time to avoid detection, and also because its exports before the war were small. The U.S. led operation, which involves massive transfers, provides Gulf producers with better protection against Iranian retaliatory strikes so that they can move crude oil, condensate, and petroleum products to foreign buyers.
The review included more than 12 satellite images, taken between 2 May and 11 June. These showed ship-to-ship transfers that involved state-owned Gulf oil tanker fleets as well as international vessels receiving the?oil. LSEG and Kpler data on shipping reviewed by revealed that tankers in the region met up repeatedly during the same time period.
Based on imagery up to June 11, it is estimated that 90 million barrels or petroleum products have likely moved through the offshore system since early May.
Based on the tankers carrying capacity, the volumes are still low compared to pre-war levels of approximately 20 million barrels per day that were passed through the Strait.
Michael Froman wrote in a Friday note that "as the old rules are weakening, it is ironic that America now takes a page from the playbook used by China, Russia and North Korea. Their so-called dark fleets pioneered this technique precisely to evade U.S. sanctions and UN sanctions." He was referring the practice of sending vessels through the strait with no transponders. Trump made this comment in his comments on June 10, after the downing the Apache.
Six sources who had direct knowledge of the operations said that the U.S. supported the?participating ships through a combination aerial surveillance, compliance screening, and monitoring instead of naval escort. No evidence was found that U.S. personnel were directly involved with the transfers.
A review of shipping records shows that international tanker operators dominate the receiving side of the operation. Dynacom Tankers, a Greek company, has spoken of its attempts to find innovative ways to ship oil across the strait ever since the conflict began on February 28, 2008.
George Procopiou (founder of Dynacom) told the Capital Link Shipping Conference in Athens on June 1 that "freedom of navigation" is essential. No one can impose any tolls, or other burdens. He said, "We're here to serve and Greece has a tradition of breaking blocksades since ancient times." "I won't go into details, but the hints should be enough for you to get my meaning."
Dynacom has not responded to an immediate request for comment about the U.S. operations.
A maritime source said, however, that the new system poses?its own risk to their industry.
The source for maritime security said that there was a lack of reliable data. Transponders that communicate the location of ships are turned off and companies do not report through the usual reporting centers. This increases the risk of collisions between ships traveling at night without lights at speeds which make maneuvering difficult.
Four sources with knowledge of the arrangements have confirmed that operators seeking to access the system must undergo a compliance assessment process before they are allocated transit window. This process involves submitting information to the U.S. Navy’s Naval Cooperation and Guidance for Shipping Office in Bahrain.
Two preliminary documents of compliance reviewed by? Operators were required to provide geospatial track histories, beneficial ownership disclosures, cargo documentation, and be willing to allow cargo testing.
Upon approval, the participating vessels will be assigned transit windows and remain in touch with the U.S. Military Office in Bahrain during the entire voyage. According to the shipping records examined by, Emirati exports make up a significant portion of the U.S. transfers. According to six of the sources, UAE's national oil company ADNOC was among the most active participants.
Kuwait Oil Tanker Company is also involved in the transfers. TankerTrackers.com reports that 2.3 million barrels were siphoned off one of their ships on the coast of Sohar, June 6, which was one of the busiest transfer days. Five days later, the receiving ship Sea Ruby was seen off India's south-west coast, bound for China where cargo was to be discharged.
Requests for comments from the UAE government, ADNOC, and Kuwait Oil Tanker Company were not answered.
Raydan said, "I do not see a solution permanent to all this." "This is only a temporary fix in these exceptional times."
(source: Reuters)