Latest News

Markets applaud Iran deal but wait for oil to start flowing

In Asia, stocks and bonds rose and the dollar dropped after U.S.-Iran agreed on a peace agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The deal also included a lifting of the U.S.'s blockade against Iran.

U.S. crude oil futures dropped more than 4%. S&P 500 Futures rose 0.8%. The dollar fell broadly. The yen increased to 159.7 dollars per yen and the euro increased to $1.1616.

Here are the comments of market analysts on this deal:

MRE?SPEIZER MARKET STRATEGIST WESTPAC, AUCKLAND

"It is positive for risky assets, positive for currencies that are risky, and negative for the U.S. Dollar."

There are still some minor concerns. The skirmish between Israel and Lebanon is still a concern. The signing date is Friday. That's still a very long time away in such an environment. If all goes well, there'll be another leg in this mini rally.

"Inflation is likely to persist for a while, even if inflation expectations slip." It takes time for supply chains to be fixed and oil to become available again. BRIAN JACOBSEN is the Chief Economic Strategist at ANNEX Wealth Management, Wisconsin.

This should make life easier for the Federal Reserve. Gasoline prices should fall as oil prices do. Some will doubt whether this is a lasting deal, but the Fed shouldn't set monetary policies based on speculation. They'll probably remove the language that said they had an "easing bias" at their next meeting. But, at least, they won't use language that suggests a hike bias.

JASON WONG SENIOR MARKET STRATEGIST BNZ WELLINGTON

The market's reaction to this has been anticipated and I believe it can be contained. We're already close to the end of what you see today on your screens.

The market will expect things to gradually return to normal. The market is no longer under threat."

NICK TWIDALE, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, ATFX GLOBAL, SYDNEY:

"I believe we'll be seeing the dollar drop over the next few sessions. We will probably see some risk currencies like the Aussie and the yen increase a little. But I don’t expect to see a lot of movement.

There will be a lot to wait and see on how fast the Strait reopens, and how long before oil flow returns to normal. It will take months, not weeks.

I don't believe we will see oil at $70 too soon.

KRISTINA CLIFTON, SENIOR CURRENCY STRATEGIST COMMONWEALTH BANK AUSTRALIA SYDNEY

It's a good thing for the world economy that the Strait of Hormuz is reopening. Our view is that oil and gas flow will take time to fully resume. The markets will be watching to see how fast production and traffic can return.

It will take some time for traffic to return to normal.

MAHJABEEN ZAMANI, HEAD OF FOREX RESEARCH IN SYDNEY, ANZ:

The markets have been waiting and inching for this good news, while a positive vibe has already been embedded in the pricing.

"As I look at the cyclical FX market, I believe there is still room for growth from where we are now. You might see oil break $80 today, just because it's a happy day... but then the market may realize that the terms may not be as lucrative. We think oil prices will "remain on the high side due to infrastructure damage."

CHRIS WESTON HEAD OF RESEARCH PEPPERSTONE MELBOURNE

"It appears credible, and the market has moved on." We are now examining what the cargo and logistics will look like through the?channel after the structural changes and damage to refineries.

"I believe there will be a lot more risk assets that are going to try and move on other factors, such as the ramping up of demand. People are now looking at earnings once again and central banks expectations this week.

I think this trade is short volatility. This will allow equity risks to increase. A further drop in long-end yields is welcome. Reporting by Tom Westbrook in Singapore and Ankur Banerjee; editing by Jacqueline Wong, Kim Coghill

(source: Reuters)