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Fed report on financial stability cites geopolitical risks and oil shock as the top concerns

According to a report by the Federal Reserve released on Friday, the ongoing war with Iran has risen to the top of the list for financial stability concerns.

In the Financial Stability Report of the U.S. Central Bank, respondents cited geopolitical risk and the oil crisis as their top concerns. Artificial intelligence and private credit also rose to become major concerns. Geopolitical risk was cited as the top concern by three-quarters, and the oil shock resulting from the war was cited 70% of the time. Half of respondents cited AI and private credit as possible threats to financial stability.

The report warned, in particular, that a prolonged conflict, especially if it is combined with shortages in commodities and damaged supply chains, would likely increase inflation and slow the economic growth in the U.S. Sharp price changes in the energy market and financial products related to it could also lead to market tensions.

Many respondents noted that the inflationary pressure caused by the "energy shock" could force central bankers to tighten their monetary policies, even if economic growth is weaker.

The report warns that "higher interest rates and increased inflation could have significant economic and financial effects, including a decline in asset prices." The survey's concerns about rising oil prices and inflation they have rekindled are similar to those expressed by many U.S. policymakers in recent weeks. After its last policy meeting, the Fed kept interest rates at their current level. Since then, more central bankers have stated that they cannot rule out a rate increase if inflation rises and spreads. Since the U.S. and Israel attacks against Iran began on Feb. 28, the global benchmark crude price has risen by more than 50 percent. It remains above $100 per barrel despite conflicting reports on whether a peace agreement is close. The "oil crisis" was the number one concern in the latest Fed survey. The 'latest Fed survey' revealed that the No. 2 concern was "oil shock" after the previous report in last fall did not mention it at all.

U.S. gas prices are at their highest level since July 2022, and inflation is now about a percentage-point above the Fed's target of 2%. Central bankers in the United States are concerned that the higher the prices, the more likely they will spread to other goods and services.

AI, PRIVATE CREDIT CONCERNS FLAGGED

The survey respondents expressed concern that AI investments are "increasingly financed" by debt. This increases leverage and increases fragility. They also said that, if the technology is widely adopted, it "may contribute to labor-market weakness." The survey presented a mixed picture of the private credit sector. The survey noted that while the sector is dealing with negative sentiments and an increase in redemption requests, the risks are manageable so far. The report stated that for the 10 biggest perpetual?business-development companies, which represent?roughly 80 percent of private credit assets in the sector, there was enough bank credit and cash to cover three quarters of redemptions if they held at a level of 5%.

The Fed stated that the risks of private credit to financial stability appear "limited and managed," but also noted that continuing redemptions and negative attitudes could reduce credit access for some borrowers. This is especially true for those with higher risk. (Reporting and editing by Paul Simao, Michael S. Derby, Dan Burns and Pete Schroeder)

(source: Reuters)