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Trump's sudden Iran reversal reveals limits to his leverage

Donald Trump's dramatic retreat from his chilling threats?to wipeout Iran's civilisation has exposed the limits and rising risks of the U.S. President's unpredictable negotiating style.

Trump's decision to back down on Tuesday and accept a ceasefire lasting two weeks - which some critics called "TACO" or "Trump always cries out" – was the biggest step to date in de-escalating the 40-day war that has shaken the Middle East, and disrupted the global energy markets.

Trump's claim of a?victory? over Iran was based on a mix of maximalist demands and erratic language, as well as increasingly extreme threats.

Trump went further than ever on Tuesday morning, when he warned Iran via social media: "A whole civilization will perish tonight if it doesn't reach a deal."

Trump reversed his threat, which experts claim could have been war crimes. He announced a truce agreement mediated by Pakistan just two hours before the deadline he set for Iran to open up the Strait of Hormuz.

In his post, he claimed that the U.S. has "already achieved and exceeded all military objectives."

Analysts say that despite Trump's triumphalist rhetoric, Iran will likely emerge from this conflict as a persistent problem for Washington. It is militarily weaker but has a more hardline leader, de facto control of the vital waterway used to ship oil, and a stockpile buried of highly enriched nuclear material.

Trump has hailed himself as a master negotiator ever since his days as a real estate developer, but some analysts claim he can limit himself with his negotiating approach and undermine U.S. credibilities on the international stage.

Jon Alterman, a Washington-based think tank member at the Center for Strategic & International Studies, said that "the president was trapped by himself and his hyperbole." "He couldn't have destroyed Iranian culture, and the costs to even appear to try would have massive."

This approach comes with an additional risk: that the adversaries, including China and Russia, will become aware of it.

The surprise factor is fading, said a Republican legislator who was in touch with the White House Tuesday night. He was referring to Trump’s habit of reversing his position after making tough-sounding statements.

Karoline Leavitt, White House Press Secretary, denied that Trump had given in. She told reporters on Wednesday that Trump's language was part his "tough negotiation style" and the world should take his words "very seriously."

EXTREME NEGATIVE POSITIONS

Trump is known for taking extreme positions in negotiations, then reversing them.

Analysts said that at times this strategy appeared to be deliberate, while other times it seemed random, with the administration reverting in response to pressure from the financial markets or MAGA's political base.

Trump's new stance on Iran was prompted by a rise in U.S. gas prices and his own deteriorating approval ratings.

The term "TACO", which is derived from the phrase "Tariff Adjustment" (or "TACO"), dates back to around a decade ago. Faced with a loss of $6.5 trillion in U.S. stocks over the course of just four days, Trump lowered the hefty duties he announced at his "Liberation Day", event held at the White House, days earlier.

Few weeks later, he reversed another set of punitive measures against China.

Both times, after Trump's reversals, the stock markets - that Trump often cites to gauge his performance – rallied fervently.

The S&P 500 index rose 2.5% on Wednesday following the ceasefire declaration, as per usual.

Trump has also backed down on his threats to seize Greenland, a NATO member country, from Denmark and his desire to take over the war-ravaged Gaza.

His deadlines to secure a ceasefire in the Gaza war between Israel and Hamas did yield results, but his ultimatums that the Palestinian militant group disarm went?unheeded.

Trump's second-term military threats have gone far beyond the 2017-2021 presidential term.

A special forces raid led to the capture in January of Nicolas Maduro, and an improved U.S.-compliant government in Caracas.

Trump acted on escalating threats made against the Islamic Republic when he attacked it with Israel on February 28. This was while Washington and Tehran continued to negotiate over the Iranian nucleus program.

The question is now whether Trump could still fail to achieve his stated goals, such as 'closing Iran’s path towards a nuclear weapon,' despite tactical military achievements. Iran has denied wanting a nuclear weapon, but still has a large stockpile believed to be mostly underground after U.S. and Israeli air strikes on June.

'MADMAN THEORY'

Trump and his advisers have insisted for years that being unpredictable was a negotiation tactic to keep opponents on their heels.

Jonathan?Panikoff is a former U.S. deputy intelligence officer for Middle East who now works at the Atlantic Council in Washington. "He brought Iran to the brink and managed to escape at least with the temporary off-ramp that he had hoped would come," said Jonathan?Panikoff, a former U.S. intelligence officer for the Middle East now working at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington.

Alexander Gray, a senior official from the first Trump administration who is now CEO of American Global Strategies, has rejected the idea that this was another example of Trump’s TACO tendencies and stated instead that the heated rhetoric aimed to "escalate to de-escalate".

Trump is believed to have embraced parts of Richard Nixon's Madman Theory. This theory, popularized during the Vietnam War, holds that extreme threats will force opponents to negotiate. Nixon wanted the North Vietnamese people to think he was insane and could use nuclear weapons.

Mark Dubowitz is the CEO of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. A nonprofit research institute that is considered hawkish in foreign policy. He said he agreed with Trump's belief that "you have to literally out-crazy the Iranians" despite the drawbacks.

Dubowitz stated that the Madman Theory is not only a bad idea, but it also scares your friends and family. Reporting by Matt Spetalnick and David Brunnstrom; Additional reporting by Andrea Shalal; Patricia Zengerle; Nandita BOSE and Dan Burns. Writing by Matt Spetalnick. Editing by Don Durfee, Nia Williams and Nia William.

(source: Reuters)