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Fuel prices in Bangladesh rise as a result of the Iran war
The Bangladeshi energy ministry announced late Saturday that retail fuel prices have been raised by 10 to 15%. They cited a sharp rise in crude oil prices globally and tightening supply due to the ongoing Middle East conflict. According to an official announcement, the new prices for petrol, diesel and kerosene are 135 taka per litre ($1.10), up from 116. The increase in import costs was unavoidable, officials said, as rising crude oil prices, supply-chain disruptions, and higher freight and Insurance costs have all contributed to the rise. This is especially true after the price of oil has risen during the seven-week Iran 'war. The rising cost of fuel in Bangladesh, where the nation relies heavily on imported fuels, is putting pressure on its already strained reserves of foreign currency. The government tried to cushion consumers initially through subsides, delayed price adjustments and tighter stock control. However, authorities stated that these measures were becoming increasingly difficult to maintain as global prices continued their upward trend. Dhaka already has more than 2? billion in foreign financing for energy imports. Fuel shortages have caused long queues at gas stations. Officials blame panic buying and hoarding as the cause of this. This latest price increase is expected to add to inflationary pressures in areas such as transport and agriculture where diesel is commonly used. It could also potentially raise food prices and overall living costs. Bangladesh has joined a growing number of countries that have adjusted their domestic fuel prices to respond to the soaring oil prices on global markets.
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Motor racing: Six injured and one dead in Nuerburgring race crash, officials
Organisers said that racing driver Juha Miettinen was killed and six drivers were injured in an accident at the 'ADAC 24h Nuerburgring qualifiers on Saturday. The race officials confirmed that Miettinen died following the early-race crash. All the other drivers who were injured were treated in hospital for injuries that were not serious. In the early stages of the first race of the ADAC 24-hour Nurburgring Qualifier, seven drivers were involved in a serious accident. The emergency medics, despite the arrival of the emergency services, were unable to save Juha Miettinen, after he was removed from the vehicle. The driver died in the Medical Centre, after all attempts at resuscitation failed. The race will not be resumed on Saturday evening and there will be a minute's silence during Sunday's grid formation. (Reporting and editing by Clare Fallon; Karolos Grohmann)
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Police in Kyiv kill a shooter who opened up fire
Ihor Klymenko, the Ukrainian Interior Minister, said that police killed a man on Saturday who had opened fire in a city district and barricaded himself inside a supermarket. Klymenko stated that the number of casualties?in this incident in the city’s?Holosiivskyi District was still being clarified. Mayor Vitali Klitschko confirmed that there were also victims inside the store. He had earlier stated the suspect killed two people. Klymenko posted on Telegram, a messaging app? that Klymenko uses to communicate with his friends and family: "The shooter was liquidated when he was arrested." Special forces from the...national police stormed a store where the attacker was. He took people hostage and fired at a policeman while he was being held. Negotiators had tried to reach him before that. Klitschko stated that 10 people were being treated in hospital. Five others were injured. (Reporting and editing by Louise Heavens, Chizu Nomiyama, and Ron Popeski)
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South Africa's central bank chief warns that the Middle East conflict clouds prospects for rate cuts
South Africa's Central Bank Governor said that it was difficult to see an easing of interest rates in the near future due to the volatile war in the Middle East, and its impact on the inflation rate. Lesetja Kganyago, the South African Reserve Bank Governor, said that the bank will not update its growth or inflation forecasts in between meetings. Instead it relies on "scenarios," to understand the impact caused by the wildly fluctuating prices of commodities such as fuel and fertilizer. Kganyago, in an interview at the International Monetary Fund's and World Bank Group spring meetings in Washington, said that the conflict would have a negative impact on growth and also increase inflation. In an environment in which you expect inflation to rise, I do not think that anyone can continue to talk about a relaxation in monetary policies in such an environment," he continued. Last month, the bank maintained its policy rate of 6.75% citing the need to be cautious due to the impact that higher energy prices will have on inflation. The bank revised its risk scenarios before the meeting to assess the impact of the Middle East crisis. The negative scenario assumed that oil would average $94 per barrel for the entire year, and that exchange rates would depreciate by 20%. "That was March. He said that we are now in a totally different environment. "We'll do new scenarios in may." The Middle East conflict and its?wild swings of commodity prices have largely halted the push for monetary easing among central banks in emerging markets. He said that South Africa did not face fuel shortages, and it would be a while before its farmers could feel the impact of a fertilizer shortage. Prices have changed in every direction...the only thing we know for sure is that there is uncertainty.
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Jalal Green shoots past Warriors to charge into the playoffs
Jalen's Green 36 points lifted the Phoenix Suns to the playoffs on Friday with a play-in victory of 111-96 over the Golden State Warriors. The Suns have earned the eighth seed in the Western Conference. On Sunday, they will host the top-seeded and defending Oklahoma City Thunder to begin a first round series. Jordan Ott, Phoenix coach, said: "Sometimes it's not the road you think it will be or the most traveled one. Sometimes it's just the road that is least traveled." "We found our path in, now we're on to the next thing." Phoenix scored 30 points on the Warriors' 21 mistakes. The Suns were able to hold on after Phoenix lost a late advantage against the Portland Trail Blazers during the play-in opening. The drama was not over yet. Golden State's Draymond green fouled out just over a minute after the final whistle. Warriors coach Steve Kerr embraced both Draymond Curry and Draymond green during a special moment. The three players were part of four NBA Championship runs. "I'm not sure what's going to occur." I love coaching, but I understand. Kerr's contract expires this summer. There's always a 'run' and, when it ends, there's often a need for fresh blood, new ideas, etc. If that's true, I'll be 'nothing' but grateful to have the opportunity to coach the franchise. Draymond green and Devin Booker, a Suns player, began a heated conversation as the game resumed. The discussion continued for a few moments before both players received a technical foul. Green was ejected. Phoenix opened up a huge lead after the Warriors scored their first two points. They then closed out the quarter with 8 consecutive points for a 33-15 lead. Golden State scored 15 points in the first quarter, their lowest total since March 7, when they scored 14 against the Thunder in the fourth. The Suns struggled in the second quarter after shooting 52.4% during the first. Golden State was within two points of Phoenix after Curry's free-throws, which he made with 19.6 seconds left in the first half. Jalen green elevated to shoot a 3-pointer on the wing as the clock ticked down. It was the Suns first field goal in over five minutes, giving Phoenix a lead of 50-45 at halftime. Brandin Podziemski, a Golden State player who leads the team with 23 points, scored 10 of them in the second. He led the Warriors in?10 rebounds. Jalen's two 3-pointers helped the Suns to gain control of the third quarter with an 11-1 run. Booker had 20 points, 8 assists and 6 rebounds. Jordan Goodwin, a Phoenix player, added 19 points and nine rebounds. Ott stated, "Truly this group has been a?special one all year. It was special again the last three or four days. They overcame the disappointment by?coming out to play that hard and against a team with every solution known." "... "... Curry scored 17 points, but he was only 4 of 16 on the floor. He also made just 3 of 10 3-pointers. De'Anthony Melton, who came off the bench to score 16 points with eight rebounds, also contributed. Field Level Media
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Australia relaxes fuel standards to boost supply
Chris Bowen, Australia's Energy Minister, said that the country would ease up on its standards for fuel quality until September. This is because of a deterioration in fuel supplies due to the war with Iran. Bowen made a televised statement: "I have decided to extend the period for higher sulphur in petrol in Australia." The relaxation announced in March increases the amount of allowed sulphur in fuel from the usual 10 parts to 50 parts. As the war, now in its eighth week, disrupted supply chain, Australia has seen localised shortages. Bowen?said that the production of diesel, jet-fuel and petrol at a Viva Energy oil refinery (VEA.AX), owned by Viva Energy in Victoria, Australia’s second most populous state, remained the same as Friday. He said that the Geelong refinery was still operating at 60% for petrol and 60% for diesel. Anthony Albanese, Australian Prime Minister, said that the fire would not trigger fuel restrictions. Albanese also secured a deal this week with Malaysian energy?firm Petronas for the supply of?excess fuel in?Australia following trips to Singapore, Brunei and other countries aimed at boosting energy supplies. (Reporting from Sam McKeith, Sydney; Editing done by William Mallard).
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World Bank launches new small state strategy to tackle challenges
The World Bank announced a new strategy on Friday that focuses on jobs to help small island states, and other small countries address challenges like remoteness, shock exposure and a limited economic base. World Bank President Ajay Banga spoke about the initiative in a closed door meeting of 50 ministers and governors of central banks from small countries, held during the spring meetings for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank. He explained that the idea was to use different tools to help smaller states attract more investment, implement policy and regulatory changes to make it easier to run and grow businesses, and create more jobs. The Bank will focus on areas like health, affordable energy and resilient infrastructure, as well as micro-and small businesses. These are the areas where officials believe there are the best opportunities to boost growth, strengthen businesses and create better jobs. Last year, the World Bank Group approved new commitments and guarantee of $3.3 billion for "small states" who face unique economic challenges, and are disproportionately impacted by shocks as was seen during the Middle East war. In a blog that was released with the new strategy, the bank stated: "For small business, a hurricane, an unexpected?surge? in fuel prices or a decline in tourism could wipe out months of income and investment in just a few days." Banga said that the Bank would take a differentiated strategy to develop regional projects in these countries. Partnerships will be an important component. "This isn't a one size fits all approach." Banga said to the finance officials that small states are diverse and our support would reflect this. "We know that the economics of small states are different," Banga told the finance officials. He said that the cost of working in smaller states can be up to four-times higher than in bigger countries. The Bank therefore planned to streamline its delivery, use more flexible funding and scale solutions in order to maximize each dollar. Several projects have already begun. The bank, in Tonga for instance, will co-finance a urban resilience project with the Asian Development Bank, under a framework agreement of mutual reliance, a first between multilateral development banks. Banga stated that he was planning to sign more agreements, including with the Inter-American Development Bank in order to extend the approach to the Caribbean. He said that the World Bank is also increasing the tools available for countries. The bank also said that better diagnostics was important. The bank said that it was preparing more detailed reports on the challenges faced by private sector hiring in Barbados, Guinea Bissau, Lesotho Mauritius Samoa and Seychelles. The blog also noted that the World Bank could leverage its power to drive investments. The 'International Finance Corp', the bank’s investment arm, for example, helped to 'fund the development of Botswana’s first utility-scale Solar Project', while the World Bank worked on a project on battery storage in parallel, enabling the integration of solar into the grid. The bank stated in its blog that the result was not just a solar power plant but also a model of how private financing can be used to open up markets and create employment. (Reporting and editing by Andrea Shalal)
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Moody's lowers Iraq's credit outlook to "negative" on Middle East conflict risks
Moody's, a credit rating agency, re-evaluated Iraq's outlook on Friday from "stable" to "negative", citing the risks to the country's "credit profile" due to 'the ongoing Middle East conflict' impacting security and energy flow. Moody's stated that "Iraq's heavy dependence on the oil industry implies that disruptions to exports through Strait of Hormuz, which account for around 90% of Iraq's oil exports, will materially reduce dollar inflows as well as fiscal revenues." Iraqi energy officials stated last month that the main southern oilfields of the OPEC'members have seen their output fall by 80% as a result of the U.S. - Iran?war, and the closing down the strait. This has pushed storage levels to a 'high and critical level. Abbas Araqchi, Iranian Foreign Minister, said that the Strait of Hormuz was now open after a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon. Donald Trump, U.S. president said he believes a deal will be reached to end the Iran War "soon", but the timing is still unclear. Four energy sources reported that Iraq resumed its southern oil exports last Friday after a hiatus of over a month. Moody's said in its report that "even if the ceasefire is maintained, it may take some time before flows in 'the Strait' return to normal." The agency kept the country's rating at "Caa1". (Reporting and editing by Unnamalai L, Bengaluru)
Trump's sudden Iran reversal reveals limits to his leverage
Donald Trump's dramatic retreat from his chilling threats?to wipeout Iran's civilisation has exposed the limits and rising risks of the U.S. President's unpredictable negotiating style.
Trump's decision to back down on Tuesday and accept a ceasefire lasting two weeks - which some critics called "TACO" or "Trump always cries out" – was the biggest step to date in de-escalating the 40-day war that has shaken the Middle East, and disrupted the global energy markets.
Trump's claim of a?victory? over Iran was based on a mix of maximalist demands and erratic language, as well as increasingly extreme threats.
Trump went further than ever on Tuesday morning, when he warned Iran via social media: "A whole civilization will perish tonight if it doesn't reach a deal."
Trump reversed his threat, which experts claim could have been war crimes. He announced a truce agreement mediated by Pakistan just two hours before the deadline he set for Iran to open up the Strait of Hormuz.
In his post, he claimed that the U.S. has "already achieved and exceeded all military objectives."
Analysts say that despite Trump's triumphalist rhetoric, Iran will likely emerge from this conflict as a persistent problem for Washington. It is militarily weaker but has a more hardline leader, de facto control of the vital waterway used to ship oil, and a stockpile buried of highly enriched nuclear material.
Trump has hailed himself as a master negotiator ever since his days as a real estate developer, but some analysts claim he can limit himself with his negotiating approach and undermine U.S. credibilities on the international stage.
Jon Alterman, a Washington-based think tank member at the Center for Strategic & International Studies, said that "the president was trapped by himself and his hyperbole." "He couldn't have destroyed Iranian culture, and the costs to even appear to try would have massive."
This approach comes with an additional risk: that the adversaries, including China and Russia, will become aware of it.
The surprise factor is fading, said a Republican legislator who was in touch with the White House Tuesday night. He was referring to Trump’s habit of reversing his position after making tough-sounding statements.
Karoline Leavitt, White House Press Secretary, denied that Trump had given in. She told reporters on Wednesday that Trump's language was part his "tough negotiation style" and the world should take his words "very seriously."
EXTREME NEGATIVE POSITIONS
Trump is known for taking extreme positions in negotiations, then reversing them.
Analysts said that at times this strategy appeared to be deliberate, while other times it seemed random, with the administration reverting in response to pressure from the financial markets or MAGA's political base.
Trump's new stance on Iran was prompted by a rise in U.S. gas prices and his own deteriorating approval ratings.
The term "TACO", which is derived from the phrase "Tariff Adjustment" (or "TACO"), dates back to around a decade ago. Faced with a loss of $6.5 trillion in U.S. stocks over the course of just four days, Trump lowered the hefty duties he announced at his "Liberation Day", event held at the White House, days earlier.
Few weeks later, he reversed another set of punitive measures against China.
Both times, after Trump's reversals, the stock markets - that Trump often cites to gauge his performance – rallied fervently.
The S&P 500 index rose 2.5% on Wednesday following the ceasefire declaration, as per usual.
Trump has also backed down on his threats to seize Greenland, a NATO member country, from Denmark and his desire to take over the war-ravaged Gaza.
His deadlines to secure a ceasefire in the Gaza war between Israel and Hamas did yield results, but his ultimatums that the Palestinian militant group disarm went?unheeded.
Trump's second-term military threats have gone far beyond the 2017-2021 presidential term.
A special forces raid led to the capture in January of Nicolas Maduro, and an improved U.S.-compliant government in Caracas.
Trump acted on escalating threats made against the Islamic Republic when he attacked it with Israel on February 28. This was while Washington and Tehran continued to negotiate over the Iranian nucleus program.
The question is now whether Trump could still fail to achieve his stated goals, such as 'closing Iran’s path towards a nuclear weapon,' despite tactical military achievements. Iran has denied wanting a nuclear weapon, but still has a large stockpile believed to be mostly underground after U.S. and Israeli air strikes on June.
'MADMAN THEORY'
Trump and his advisers have insisted for years that being unpredictable was a negotiation tactic to keep opponents on their heels.
Jonathan?Panikoff is a former U.S. deputy intelligence officer for Middle East who now works at the Atlantic Council in Washington. "He brought Iran to the brink and managed to escape at least with the temporary off-ramp that he had hoped would come," said Jonathan?Panikoff, a former U.S. intelligence officer for the Middle East now working at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington.
Alexander Gray, a senior official from the first Trump administration who is now CEO of American Global Strategies, has rejected the idea that this was another example of Trump’s TACO tendencies and stated instead that the heated rhetoric aimed to "escalate to de-escalate".
Trump is believed to have embraced parts of Richard Nixon's Madman Theory. This theory, popularized during the Vietnam War, holds that extreme threats will force opponents to negotiate. Nixon wanted the North Vietnamese people to think he was insane and could use nuclear weapons.
Mark Dubowitz is the CEO of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. A nonprofit research institute that is considered hawkish in foreign policy. He said he agreed with Trump's belief that "you have to literally out-crazy the Iranians" despite the drawbacks.
Dubowitz stated that the Madman Theory is not only a bad idea, but it also scares your friends and family. Reporting by Matt Spetalnick and David Brunnstrom; Additional reporting by Andrea Shalal; Patricia Zengerle; Nandita BOSE and Dan Burns. Writing by Matt Spetalnick. Editing by Don Durfee, Nia Williams and Nia William.
(source: Reuters)