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Analysts say that oil shock could affect emerging markets in ways beyond inflation.

Analysts say that oil shock could affect emerging markets in ways beyond inflation.
Analysts say that oil shock could affect emerging markets in ways beyond inflation.

Analysts warn that the war in Iran, and the surge?in energy costs it will cause, will have a significant impact on emerging markets. This includes pressures on currency, capital flows and external balances.

Brokerages such as J.P.Morgan, and?Bernstein expect Brent prices will rise 'above a $100 mark if conflict continues. Tehran has vowed that it would close the Strait of Hormuz, and warned any ship attempting to pass through the vital shipping route for gas and oil.

Brent crude futures rose $5.63 or 7.2% to $83.36 per barrel at 1254 GMT, after reaching their highest level since July 2024, $85.12.

A mere 10% increase in oil prices could erode?current accounts (for emerging markets), by 40-60 basis point. "Prolonged increases will only increase these deficits," analysts from ING?said. They added that Thailand, South Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, and the Philippines are most vulnerable.

The U.S.-Israeli airwar against Iran has widened. Israel attacked Lebanon, and Iran responded?with attacks against energy infrastructure and tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf countries.

The conflict has shaken the global financial markets. Both the emerging market equity and currency indexes have fallen to their lowest levels in three weeks as investors seek the safety of the U.S. Dollar.

Analysts said that higher crude oil prices are only a small risk for China, unless they escalate or last a long time. India's thin oil reserves would make it one of the most vulnerable to a disruption in supply.

Goldman Sachs estimates that an increase in Brent crude prices from $70 up to $85 will 'add about 0.7 percentage points to inflation in emerging Asia, and slash the economic growth by around 0.5 points, and widen current account deficits in almost every economy in the area, especially Thailand, Singapore, and South Korea.

Citigroup warned that a prolonged shock to oil prices could "aggressively" de-anchor inflation expectations in emerging markets. Countries with low reserves, such as Argentina and?Sri Lanka face a heightened risk of capital outflows, and their currencies may fall.

Separately, J.P. Morgan analysts added the Polish zloty currency to their list as "underweight". (Reporting from Rashika and Kanchana in Bengalur; additional reporting by Akriti; editing by Devika Syamnath).

(source: Reuters)