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Indonesian coal miners warn against layoffs and economic risks due to proposed output reductions

The Indonesian coal mining association (ICMA), has expressed concern about the steep production 'cuts' proposed by the Indonesian government for 2026. They claim that the'move' could lead to mass layoffs in the industry.

In a letter dated January 31, ICMA informed Bahlil lahadalia, the minister of energy and minerals resources, that most members of its association, which represents two-thirds (or more) of Indonesian coal producers, had received production quotas between 40%-70% below 2025 levels.

In a letter to the ICMA, the ICMA stated that it "submits our objection and requests for reconsideration" of the 2026 'coal production reductions".

The output cut proposed is an attempt to stabilize the falling thermal coal prices, amid fears that the world's biggest exporter of the fossil fuel will oversupply. Revenues from the fossil fuel have been affected by a?falling?demand in top importing countries, China and India.

The ICMA stated that companies are facing economic infeasibility due to the fact that fixed costs and obligations can't be covered adequately.

Requests for comments from the Energy Ministry and its Directorate General for Coal were not immediately responded to.

The shares of Indonesia's largest coal miners, ranked by production, plunged in 2025. This was a far cry from the 22% growth on the broader market. Adaro's shares fell by 18% in 2018, while Golden Energy Mines (GEMS.JK), which is owned by Bukit Asam, lost 24%.

Ryan Davis, a Citi analyst, said that the cuts are greater than the?rate? of decline expected after the government indicated an earlier annual production of 600 million metric tonnes. Indonesia will produce 790 million metric tons of coal in 2025. This is a 5.5% annual decline.

Davis wrote in a Monday note that "the current adjustments are abrupt, highly uneven and increase execution risk incrementally".

The association stated that the impact of the coal industry would extend beyond mining companies to contractors, shipping and transport firms and increase the risk of defaulting on loans in coal producing regions. (Reporting and editing by Bernadette B. Baum; Sudarshan V. Varadhan)

(source: Reuters)