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India is looking to increase its coking coal imports.
Vikram Dutt is the top official in the coal ministry of India. He said that India has a significant opportunity to import more coal from the United States, as it expands its steelmaking capability. Dutt stated that India had bilateral discussions with officials of the U.S. Department of Energy in advance of the India Energy Week event currently underway. About 85% of the world's second largest?crude-steel producer?s coking coal requirements are imported, and more than half comes from Australia. New Delhi is trying to diversify its supplies. About 10% of India's coal imports are currently imported from the U.S. India's coal is not suitable for steel production due to its high ash content. Kyle Haustveit of the U.S. Department of Energy said that the United States "actively tries" to support and increase its coal industry. Haustveit stated, "We are here to meet with the Indian Government to ensure that we're partnering through innovation and technology transfers." Haustveit and Dutt did not indicate how much India might increase its coking coal imports. Indian and U.S. government officials are also holding talks on a possible bilateral trade agreement, after last year's talks fell apart due to a breakdown of communication between the two countries. Sethuraman N.R., Kirsten Donovan (Editing)
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Solway restarts Guatemala nickel plant following price surge
Solway Investment Group, a Swiss company, plans to restart nickel operations in Guatemala within months. This is after a dramatic?rise of the nickel price, and the removal of sanctions by the United States. Analysts estimate that the amounts involved represent a tiny fraction of the global nickel supply, which is estimated to be around four million tons in this year. Industry sources claim that the plan indicates that the prices are high enough to allow some smelters to re-start profitable production after prices fell to three-year lows at the end of 2024. Nickel, which is also used in the production of electric vehicle batteries, reached a 19-month high on Monday at $19 160 per metric ton, according to London's Metal Exchange. Nickel prices have risen by?nearly 20 percent since Indonesia, the world's largest nickel producer, announced late last year that it would reduce its nickel mining quotas. Solway's Guatemalan operation includes the PRONICO plant with a production capacity of 25, 000 metric tons nickel ferronickel per year and CGN mine, which can extract up to 2, 2 million tons nickel ore. Solway stated that the anticipated timeline for re-starting CGN will be around April or May 2026. This is in line with the restart of PRONICO. Solway shut down PRONICO and CGN in November 2022 after the U.S. imposed sanctions on its 'Guatemalan subsidiaries. The U.S. lifted them in January 2024. According to an industry source, ferronickel trades at a discount of $2,000 per ton to the LME nickel price. Solway, which owns its mine in Guatemala would have to pay around $12,000 per ton to produce the ferronickel. (Reporting and editing by Barbara Lewis; reporting by Pratima Deai)
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Cyclic Materials invests $82 Million in a new US rare earth recycling facility
Cyclic Materials announced on Thursday that it would invest over $82 million in South Carolina to build a rare earth?recycling facility. This will expand?U.S. The company will invest more than $82 million to build a rare-earth?recycling campus in South Carolina, the company?said on Thursday. This investment will expand?U.S. U.S. production of rare Earths has been limited. Rare earths are a group of 17 elements that are critical to the manufacture of magnets for a wide range of products, such as cell phones, fighter planes, electric vehicles, and medical kits. China is currently the largest rare-earth processor in the world. Cyclic stated that the?campus is initially able to produce around 600 tonnes of mixed rare earth oxides (MREO) a yearly, with a plan to expand to 1,800 tonnes. The ecosystem in South Carolina is really well connected, said CEO Ahmad Ghahreman. He added that Cyclic has "quite a lot" of production planned tied to?offtake contracts. The facility will use a Canadian company's process to separate MREOs and recover them from products that are usually not recycled. This will create a North American-based supply of rare-earth metals. Cyclic stated that the project will begin operating in 2028. (Reporting from Katha Kalia and Ernest Scheyder, both in Houston; editing by Jonathan Ananda).
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Russell: The Trump-China metals rally goes beyond gold and silver
Gold and silver have been making headlines for their massive rise in recent months, but industrial metals are also performing well. The fundamentals of copper, aluminium, and nickel have been a strong factor in the recent gains. These metals are at record highs or multiple-year highs, even though they do not appear to be sufficient for these rallies. Base metals are showing strength for a number of reasons, the majority of which relate to Chinese import demand and easing exports. Metals may also be benefiting from the same speculative dynamics that drive gold and silver. This is a desire for real assets in the face of investor uncertainty about the policies of U.S. president Donald Trump. Prices in other major currencies are also surging. Spot gold reached a new record high of $5400.91 per ounce on Wednesday. It has increased by 39% from its previous low of $3886.02 an ounce, on October 28. Silver's surge has been even more impressive. It rose 158% between the low of $45.51 per ounce on October 28 and the high of $117.41 an ounce on Wednesday. This is just a little bit short of the record-breaking $117.69 on January 26. Silver also has benefited from the concern that China's licensing rules for exports could lead to a decrease in shipments. Only 44 companies are allowed to export this metal next year. China has not yet imposed any restrictions on the export of silver, despite the fact that it exported 5,100 metric tons last year - the highest amount since 2008. Silver is used in solar panels, and it's possible that China would prioritize domestic consumption over exports. ALUMINIUM SUPPLY China's reduced aluminium exports has a?significant impact on the global aluminum markets. Customs data shows that exports of aluminium products and unwrought aluminum fell 8% from 2025 to 6,13 million tonnes. Aluminium prices have been rising since April due to the loss of supply from the largest producer in the world. Aluminium has increased 16.1% since the lowest price of $2,805 per ton in November. On Wednesday, aluminium closed at $3,257, its highest closing level since April 2022. London futures have seen a 24% increase from the low of $10 580 per ton that was reached on November 5, to the closing price of $13,086.50, which is slightly below the January 14 record high of 13,407 a ton. China is importing more copper in recent years, particularly during the second half 2025. Arrivals of 437,000 tonnes in December were up 2.3% compared to the previous month. The rally in copper last year was largely based on the fear that Trump would impose tariffs on imports. However, those fears?easened after duties were only imposed on certain copper products. Nickel, another industrial metal, has also seen impressive gains over the past few months. It rose 27.5%, from a low price of $14,330 per ton in November to a high of $18,270 last Wednesday. This is close to a 21-month peak of $19160 in January. Markets must decide whether gains in copper and aluminium, as well as in?nickel, can be justified based on fundamentals of supply and demand and the outlook through 2026 or if they are driven by speculation. In 2026, most analysts believe that copper and aluminum will be fairly balanced markets in terms of supply?and-demand. Nickel is expected to remain oversupplied. The recent rally in industrial metals is likely to be a result of precious metals riding on the coattails. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of a columnist, who is also an author.
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TASS reports that Russia is prepared to evacuate its nuclear staff from Iran's Bushehr plant if needed.
Alexei Likhachev was quoted as saying that Russia would be prepared to evacuate staff from Iran’s Bushehr nuclear plant if needed. Last year, President Vladimir Putin stated that hundreds of Russians worked at the facility. It is Iran's sole operating nuclear power station, which Moscow built for Iran. Russia is currently building more nuclear facilities at Bushehr. Bushehr was not targeted by the U.S. attack on Iran's nuclear facilities last June. Likhachev warned that an attack could cause a catastrophe comparable to 1986's Chernobyl. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, urged Iran on Wednesday to make a deal with the United States that would see the nuclear weapons renounced. Otherwise the next U.S. strike?wouldn't be as bad. Likhachev said: "We hope that all parties in the conflict will honor their commitments to protect this territory (Bushehr). "But as they say, keeping our finger to the pulse, and in cooperation with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Defence, will be prepared to carry out evacuation measures, if necessary." Iran denies wanting nuclear weapons and Russia supports Tehran's use of nuclear energy for peaceful reasons. (Reporting and editing by Andrew Osborn)
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US sources claim that the US has moved away from critical minerals price floors
Multiple sources have reported that the Trump administration has backed away from its plans to guarantee a price minimum for U.S. vital minerals projects. This is a tacit acknowledgement of the lack of funding by Congress and complexity in setting market prices, they said. This shift comes at a time when a U.S. Senate Committee is reviewing a price floor granted to MP Materials in the past year. It represents a change from previous commitments to industry, and it could separate Washington from other G7 partners who are discussing some form of joint pricing support or similar measures to boost production of vital minerals used in electric cars, semiconductors and consumer electronics. Three attendees said that two senior Trump officials, at a closed-door event this month, told U.S. mineral executives their projects must prove their financial independence, without government price support. Audrey Robertson, Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Department of Energy and Head of its Office of Critical Minerals and Energy Innovation told the executives that Audrey Robertson was not there to support them. "Don't expect that from us." In premarket trading, shares of U.S. listed miners that produce critical minerals dropped between 3% to 8% on Thursday. Trilogy Metals fell 3.3%, MP Materials dropped 4.7% and Critical Metals and NioCorp Developments both lost more than 5%. Ramaco Resources dropped 6.4%, and USA Rare Earth fell nearly 9%. Rare Australian Earth Shares Slide The price floor set by the MP is not affected. Robertson was joined in his efforts by Joshua Kroon, deputy assistant secretary for textiles and consumer goods at the Department of Commerce International Trade Administration. Sources claim that Kroon and Robertson said at the meeting Washington was no longer able to offer floor prices. In a written statement, the Energy Department said that the article was "false" and that it relied on sources who were either misinformed or intentionally misleading. The statement didn't elaborate on the errors that the department had discovered. The Energy Department did not respond immediately to a request for more information. The Department of Commerce stated that the claims made in the article are false, and the administration is "committed to reshoring critical mineral supply chains and securing them using all available options". MP Materials didn't respond to a request for comment sent by X, but in a subsequent statement published on X said that the contract between the company and the government had not changed. It said that any implication the U.S. Government has retreated from their?commitments towards MP Materials was false. I did not imply that the MP's agreement was at risk. The report today is inaccurate, false, and contradictory with the facts. The company stated that the report follows a pattern where speculative, misleading reporting has been used to misrepresent government policy. Kroon and Robertson have not responded to any requests for comment. After the publication of the article, shares in Australian listed rare earths companies fell, and at one stage, those of Lynas Rare Earths - the largest company outside China - were down by more than 10%. A spokesperson for Lynas said that the company was benefiting by the U.S. decision, which has boosted rare earths prices. Price protection is important for producers who are currently in business, because it addresses the market's dysfunction immediately. She said that other policy instruments were available and had been used for early-stage projects. Reg Spencer, an analyst at Canaccord in Sydney, believes that the steep fall for shares related to rare earths was exaggerated. The comments were in line with his interpretation of White House policy, which is that the White House does not intend to support every rare earths project by using a floor price mechanism. Projects will be developed according to their merits. The U.S. continues to support the development of a critical minerals supply chain in ex-China. He added that they may use different methods. Change in Tack The current administration stance contrasts with a closed door meeting held in July where two officials told separate minerals executives that an MP Materials floor price extended days earlier was "not a single-off", and that the administration is working on other price support projects. Since then, the administration took equity positions in Lithium Americas and other companies, including USA Rare Earth, Trilogy Metals and USA Rare Earth. There were no price floors offered, which raised questions about the government’s commitment to this financial tool. U.S. mining companies and processing firms have called for government price floor and other?backstops? to help them compete against China. Industry executives claim that China's state producers can cut prices to punish competitors, undermine projects, and discourage private investment. The White House has declined to confirm whether it intends to set new price floors. However, it said that it would continue to pursue tax cuts, deregulation and targeted investments in high-priority sectors "while being a good steward of taxpayer dollars." Price floors are criticized by critics who warn that they expose U.S. tax payers to financial risk, forcing the government to subsidise minerals when prices drop. This could result in a long-term liability if prices continue to fall. Legal experts warn that guaranteeing minimum price could be challenged under U.S. budget, procurement and trade laws. This is especially true if such support is perceived as a market distortion, or if it lacks explicit congressional approval. While Washington may be moving away from price floor restrictions, it could still take other measures to support mineral projects and stabilize prices. These include stockpiling and equity investments, as well as local content stipulations. Australia and other countries have also looked at price floors for critical mineral. A DEAL BETWEEN MPS IS PUBLISHED IN THE SPOTLIGHT Two additional sources said that the MP Materials investment caused concern among some administration officials and Congress members, who were concerned that Congress had not authorized funding for a floor price of at least $10 per kg for 2 types of rare Earths. Since the MP investment, the economics have changed in?mineral markets. USA Rare Earth announced this week that it plans to purchase the same types of rare Earths on the open markets for $125 a kg. The MP investment included a guarantee purchase agreement. This caused confusion about whether Washington would guarantee price floors for others. Sources said that as the Trump administration looked at other equity investments it could make after MP, they realized it didn't have the authority from Congress to fund a floor price. According to two sources, this realization was partly fueled by an inquiry made by members of the Senate Armed Services Committee. They asked Pentagon staff to meet last year in order to explain why MP Materials had received support for a price floor and the administration's investment strategy in the minerals sector. The committee member confirmed the request for a meeting but declined to comment further.
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Reliance, an Indian oil company, will buy up to 150.000 bpd from Russia in February
Reliance Industries, India's operator of the largest refinery complex in the world, said it would 'buy up to 150.000 barrels of Russian oil per day' from February, for its domestic-market-focused refinery. Reliance is set to receive Russian oil that complies with sanctions in February and march after a month-long pause, it was reported earlier this month. Reliance received its last shipment of Russian crude oil in December, after it secured a one-month U.S. It was able to extend its contract with Rosneft, the Russian oil producer beyond the November 21 deadline after securing a one-month?U.S. In October, the U.S. sanctioned Rosneft and its fellow Russian oil giant Lukoil. However, non-sanctioned Russian firms and trading intermediaries continue to sell. The executive, who declined to be identified in accordance with the company's policies, said that Reliance will buy up to 150.000 barrels of Russian oil per day from February from sellers not subject to sanctions. The executive declined to name the sellers, and Reliance didn't immediately respond to a comment request. Reliance previously imported Russian crude as part of a long-term contract with Rosneft, for a total of?500,000 barrels a day (bpd), for its 1.4-million-bpd Jamnagar Refinery Complex in Gujarat. The conglomerate buys oil, including from Saudi Arabia, Iraq and others, as part of a term-deal to meet the requirements for its Jamnagar refinery complex in Gujarat. It also purchases Canadian crude oil. Reliance also seeks U.S. approval for?resuming purchases of Venezuelan oil, reported earlier in the month, as it looks to secure supply with its move away from Russia's biggest oil companies. (Reporting and writing by Nidhi verma, Mayank Bhardwaj, editing by Philippa fletcher).
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Dutch lithium supplier AMG wants to bypass China
AMG Critical Materials, a Dutch lithium miner and supplier, plans to reduce its dependence on China through the processing of?battery grade lithium for electric cars in Brazil, Portugal, and Germany. AMG Development Head Michael Connor stated that the?firm aimed to create a "lithium road" connecting these three countries, allowing the company to bypass China which he said was the only option currently available for processing this material. He said, "Our goal is building this processing capacity both in Brazil and Portugal to establish a Western provider for this expertise. This does not exist yet." EUROPE CAN CATCH-UP WITH CHINA Europe wants to reduce its dependence on Chinese lithium, but the region has a very limited capacity for extraction and refinement. South America, Australia, and China are the world's top producers. AMG produces spodumene, a mineral rich in lithium, at its Mibra Mine in Brazil. The material is then shipped to China to be converted from 6% to almost 100% lithium. Then, it's sent to AMG in Bitterfeld Wolfen, Germany, where it's processed into lithium hydroxide, which is a cathode for stationary storage and EV batteries. Connor stated that Europe can catch up despite being behind the rest of the world. However, lithium extraction and processing are 'complex' and take years to scale up. He added: "Even though China is a major leader, Europe has no reason to fall behind." "Once production is in Europe, it's cheaper to make lithium here rather than ship it via China." SLOWER THAN EXPECTED RAMP-UP AT GERMAN SITE AMG's Bitterfeld is expected to reach full capacity of 20,000 metric tons lithium hydroxide by the end of 2026, two year later than originally planned. This means that AMG will miss its earlier goal of 100,000 tonnes by 2030. Connor attributed the delay to a weaker than expected market demand, and ongoing customer checks. AMG is the largest shareholder of London-based Savannah Resources. This company is developing a project for lithium in northern Portugal. Barroso spodumene is the largest deposit in Europe, with estimated reserves of more than 39 millions tons.
MORNING BID EUROPE: Building AI is expensive, but I hope it will be worth it
Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets.
Who would have thought that building AI could cost so much? Microsoft and Meta both reported a staggering amount of money spent on capex. Microsoft spent almost $38 billion during the first quarter, a two-thirds increase over the previous year. Meta increased its capital expenditure plans by 73% for this year, to a range of between $115 billion and 135 billion.
Investors reacted to these plans very differently, knocking $240 Billion off Microsoft's value and lifting Meta $140 Billion. Microsoft's drop in value was greater than Citigroup's capitalisation, but banks are so 20th century.
Meta's upgraded earnings outlook has really impressed investors. However, the Redmond-based company is still struggling to calm down concerns that cost growth will ultimately exceed profit growth.
Samsung Electronics has tripled its operating profit, despite the fact that one company's cost is another's revenue. Memory chips were once a dull part of the market.
The Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday was also called boring. However, Chair Jerome Powell seemed pretty upbeat in his presser. He said that the economy was "on solid footing", with "clearly improved outlook" several times.
The?committee was overwhelmingly in favor of keeping rates the same, except for two members who voted to cut them.
He said that the Fed has "already" done a great deal of "normalising", and now policy is only "somewhat restricting", or "loosely neutre". The markets interpreted this as confirmation that an April rate cut is off the table. June will remain at 61%, in part because investors believe President Trump has found a more dovish chair by then.
Powell would not say whether he will step down in May or remain as Fed governor until 2028. Powell smiled when a reporter asked him why he'd want to leave the Fed at all, given the threats against its independence.
The dollar was still vulnerable in the currency market despite Treasury Sec. Bessent's assurance that the U.S.?still maintains a "strong" dollar policy, regardless of what Trump may say.
The murmurs of EU and ECB officials that the euro's increase against the dollar is harmful for exports and a risk to inflation could be more meaningful.
The ECB is unlikely to intervene, but the 'Swiss central banks has more experience and the flight of the dollar is pushing up the franc, even against the euro.
The Swiss must be worried that the franc is now trading below a huge chart support. The SNB's intervention can cause a mess for the markets, as it sells francs to euros and then distributes some of these euros among dollars, pounds, etc., causing cross currents in various currencies.
The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Thursday.
Consumer confidence and business sentiment in the Eurozone for January
ECB member Piero Cilpollone addresses the Riksbank's policy meeting
Weekly jobless claims and November U.S. trade data
(source: Reuters)