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Singapore firms target South Africa amid global trade shake-up
This week, a delegation of Singaporean firms is visiting South Africa to explore partnership opportunities in manufacturing, logistics and consumer goods. Trade between the two countries has almost doubled in the last four years. Enterprise Singapore, Singapore's agency for trade and enterprise, stated that this mission was part of the Scale-Up Programme and aimed to link participating firms with South African counterparts, and potential partners, in a variety of sectors including agriprocessing and industrial supplies. "South Africa is already a close partner of Singapore, and there are many Singaporean firms operating in South Africa," Rahul Ghosh said on Thursday. He was the director for Enterprise Singapore Middle East and Africa. "In the longer term, this will lead to Singaporean businesses unlocking opportunities for South African business for win-win results, which is particularly important at this critical junction of global trade uncertainty and investment." REDRAWING GLOBAL TRADE ROUTES The visit coincides with the redrawing of global trade routes due to shifting tariff regimes, supply-chain disruptions and other factors. Countries are now forging new partnerships or strengthening existing ones to gain access to markets and raw materials. The delegation is made up of steel infrastructure specialist Mlion Corporation as well as car leasing firm Lumens and snack manufacturer Cocoba. Meetings with local and regional major players are being planned, including Tolaram Group, Denmark-based FLSmidth and Tolaram Group, to discuss possible collaboration and investment. Ghosh stated that manufacturing, agriprocessing and logistics were identified as priority industries. Official data show that the trade in goods between Singapore, South Africa and other countries reached $1.4 billion by 2024. This is almost twice as much as what was recorded in 2010. Colleen Goko is the reporter. (Editing by Anathi madubela and Mark Potter.
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Gold prices rise on renewed geopolitical risk; US inflation data is in focus
After two sessions of declines, gold prices rose by over 1% Thursday as investors awaited Friday's key U.S. Inflation data. As of 09:21 am, spot gold was up by 1.2% to $4,143.80 an ounce. ET (1321 GMT) after falling to near a two-week low during the previous session. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery climbed 2.3%, to $4.160.50 an ounce. The prices reached a record-high of $4,381.21 in the first session, but then experienced their steepest fall in five years during the second. This year, the value of gold has soared. All the fundamentals that drove gold higher in this year are still very much present. "There was some opportunistic purchasing on the dip, and perhaps an uptick today in trade and geopolitical conflicts fostering that," Peter Grant said. The gold price has risen by 57% in the last year due to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty. Central bank purchases have also been sustained. U.S. president Donald Trump imposed sanctions against Russia on Wednesday for the first times in his second term. The sanctions targeted oil companies Lukoil, and Rosneft. In response to Beijing’s recent restrictions on rare-earth-exports, the administration is also considering a proposal to limit a wide range of software exports to China. The Federal Reserve is now focusing on the U.S. Consumer Price Index report due out Friday, which could be its clearest inflation signal before next week's policy meetings. Data is expected to show core inflation at 3.1% for September. The markets have already priced a rate cut of 25 basis points, and another one is expected in December. In low-interest rate environments, gold, which is a non-yielding investment, tends be to gain. JP Morgan has forecast that gold prices will reach $5,055/oz on average by the fourth quarter 2026. This is based on an assumption that central bank and investor demand will be around 566 tonnes each quarter. Other metals rose in price: spot silver increased 1.6% to $49,29 an ounce; platinum increased 1.2% to $1640.61 while palladium dropped 0.1% to $1457.08.
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Canada retail sales in August grew by 1.0%, but declined 0.7% from September
Data from Canada's National Statistics Agency showed that retail sales in Canada rebounded during August, as consumers increased their spending on new cars, supermarkets, and clothing, among other things. Statista Canada reported that retail sales increased by 1% in August to C$70.40 Billion ($50.20 Billion) from a downwardly revised 0.7% drop in July. A preliminary estimate of September sales showed a likely decline of 0.7%. Analysts polled had predicted retail sales growth of 1.3% in August, excluding automotive and part sales. StatsCan's data shows that sales increased by 0.7% excluding the automotive category which accounts for as much as 28% of total retail sales. It said that the volume of retail sales for each month also saw a similar gain of 1%. Retail sales, including domestic sales of furniture, food and gasoline, and many other items are considered a early indicator of gross national product growth, and contribute approximately 40% of total consumer spending. Retail sales are closely monitored by economists and analysts to determine the state of the economy. In August, the largest boost in retail sales came from the automotive sector, which includes new and used cars, parts, accessories, and tires. The category saw a robust 1.8% growth, led by new car sales which increased by 2.3%. Clothing and accessories also saw a solid increase of 3.2%. Almost 6% of retail sales are accounted for by this sector. The second largest contributor to retail sales was food and beverages. This category saw a 0.3% increase, mainly due to purchases made at grocery stores and supermarkets. Fuel station sales and building material sales have both dropped.
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Mount Fuji in Japan sees snowfall 21 days later than normal
The top of Japan's Mount Fuji received snow on its summit for the first winter time ever, according to the Meteorological Agency. This is 21 days later than average, since records started in 1894. The snowfall this year was two weeks earlier than in 2024 when the snow fell on the 3,776 metre (12,388 ft) peak only on November 7 - the latest date since records began. The sacred mountain has been a symbol of Japan for centuries. Its snow-capped summit inspired many of Japan's greatest artworks, including Katsushika's "Great Wave Off of Kanagawa", which is now featured on the backside of the 1,000 yen note. Mamoru Mamatsumoto, of the Kofu Observatory office of the Meteorological Agency, told last year that the cause of the snowfall was unknown. In August, Japan's highest temperature ever was recorded in Isesaki, a city located northwest of Tokyo. It reached 41.8 degrees Celsius (107.8 Fahrenheit). According to the Kofu Observatory office of the Meteorological Agency, Fuji's first snowfall is the point in the summer when all or part the mountain is covered with snow or "white looking solid precipitation", as observed from below. (Reporting and editing by Kate Mayberry; Anton Bridge)
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Bulgarian fuel supply secure after Lukoil sanction, says PM
Rosen Zhelyazkov, the Prime Minister of Bulgaria, said that although U.S. sanctions have been imposed on Russia's Lukoil, which operates Bulgaria's largest refinery, there is still enough fuel to meet demand. The U.S. President Donald Trump has imposed sanctions against Russia's biggest oil companies Lukoil, and Rosneft over Moscow's conflict in Ukraine. This has sent global oil prices up and prompted India to cut Russian imports. Lukoil operates the Burgas refinery in Bulgaria which produces 190,000 barrels per day. It also has more than 200 petrol station and a network of fuel depots and transport. Zhelyazkov, speaking to journalists in Brussels before a meeting of the European Council, said that "the refinery must continue operating." He said that the country had a month to decide how it would approach the refinery, as well as the refinery and its management. Fuel supplies are secure. He said, "I am not referring to the immediate future but rather in general." In a Thursday statement, the central bank of Bulgaria said it had been in touch with the ministry of finance and other authorities in order to discuss future steps. Lukoil already felt pressured to sell its refinery because of the sanctions imposed on Russia for the conflict in Ukraine. This is not a joke. "We could run out at some point," said Boyko Borissov who is the leader of GERB, the ruling party. He said that "it is) a very complex and delicate issue. We are prepared to take all possible actions if needed." Latchezar Bogdonov, chief economist of the Institute for Market Economics, Sofia, stated that Lukoil had three options for its Bulgarian operations: sell assets, place them under government management or shut down operations. Banks are likely to stop working with Lukoil, and its subsidiaries. How will you survive if you can't use the financial system? He told.
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JP Morgan expects gold to average $5,055 an ounce by the end of 2026
JP Morgan analysts maintained a bullish view on gold on Thursday, forecasting that prices could reach $5,055 an ounce on average by the fourth quarter 2026. The bank's forecast is based "on demand assumptions which see central bank and investor buying at an average of 566 tons per quarter in 2026," it said in a statement. Natasha Kaneva is the Head of Global Commodities Strategy for JP Morgan. She said, "Gold remains the highest conviction long term we have this year. We see further upsides as the market enters into a Fed rate cutting cycle." Gregory Shearer of Base & Precious Metals Strategy believes that the combination of a Fed cutting cycle, stagflation fears, concerns about Fed independence and broader debasement hedging will support gold's upward movement. The bank stated that, in regards to the dollar, it was "not a story of de-dollarization, or debasement, but most likely, a story of dollar diversification," noting that foreign investors are slowly shifting small amounts into gold. Analysts at JP Morgan also emphasized that recent market consolidation was healthy. Kaneva said that the pullback is a reflection of the market adjusting to the rapid rise in prices since August. It's perfectly normal to be paralyzed by fear because the price has moved so quickly. She said, "It's a very simple story. You have many buyers and no sellers." She reaffirmed a long-term goal of $6,000/oz in 2028 and stressed that gold should be seen on a multiyear horizon. The spot gold price has reached several records this year. Its latest high of $4,381.21 was achieved on Monday. This represents a year-to date gain of almost 57%, and sets the stage for the strongest annual performance in the history of the metal. (Reporting from Sherin Elizabeth Varighese in Bengaluru and Anmol Chaubey; Editing by Susan Fenton & Joe Bavier.)
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Russia at war faces double trouble - Trump's ultimatum, and the impact on oil sales to India
Russia, which is the second-largest oil exporter in the world, is considering how it will respond to U.S. sanction against top oil companies Rosneft, and Lukoil, and to the possibility of reduced sales to India, its largest buyer. Since months, President Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin have been discussing a way to end the conflict. However, there has not yet been a breakthrough. What did the U.S. do? The U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, or OFAC, imposed sanctions against Rosneft, Lukoil and several of their subsidiaries on October 22, while calling on Moscow to agree to an immediate ceasefire. Around half of Russia's crude oil production is produced by these two companies, and they account for more than 5% global crude production. The U.S. Treasury announced sanctions in January against the Russian energy industry, including the oil majors Gazprom and Surgutneftegaz. However, these measures did not have a significant impact on Russian oil exports. Some lawmakers are calling for even tougher sanctions. The U.S. already has introduced sanctions against this so-called "shadow fleet" that handles Russia's oil imports. These sanctions are aimed at more than 180 ships and dozens oil traders, oilfield services providers, insurance companies, and energy officials. What did India do? According to two sources with knowledge of the situation, Indian refiners and their top buyer Reliance Industries intend to reduce or stop their Russian oil imports. India is under increasing pressure from the United States to reduce its purchases in trade talks with Washington. According to the International Energy Agency, it bought 1.9 millions barrels per day (bpd), or 40% of Russia’s total exports in the first nine month of 2025. What does it mean for Russia? In order to maintain its exports, Russia will likely be forced to offer greater discounts to buyers as a result of increased sanctions. The oil and gas revenues account for up to one quarter of the Russian budget. They are also the main source of funds for Moscow's ongoing military campaign against Ukraine. These taxes on mineral extraction are only paid in the oilfield. Sanctions will only be imposed if Russia has to reduce production. How could Russia respond? The Kremlin reacted to Trump's warning earlier this month that the Russian economy would collapse by saying that Russia has considerable reserves and is strong enough to enable Putin to achieve his objectives. Stopping its crude exports would be one option, but it would harm allies like China and achieve what the West wants - a reduction in Moscow's revenues and war coffers. Other options for Russia include cutting off important exports like enriched uranium or palladium, but that would also harm its own economy. A second option is to intensify rare-earth collaboration with China. According to U.S. Geological Survey data, Russia has the fifth largest reserves of rare-earth metals in the world. A tie-up with China, which is the top player, would thwart U.S. attempts to counter Beijing’s dominance. Russia has leverage over Western oil giants, as it controls Black Sea exports through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium that mainly transports crude from Kazakhstan. This oil is being pumped by the U.S. giants Chevron & Exxon Mobil. Kazakhstan is a country with whom Russia has strong economic and security links. What about OPEC+? Russia is a major member of OPEC+, which unites the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies. It accounts for approximately half of the oil production in the world. OPEC+ has unwinded production curbs in recent months to regain market shares, but a squeeze of Russia's exports may hamper the group's attempts to agree to further increases. What about China? China, along with India is the largest buyer of Russian crude. In February 2022, when Putin visited Beijing days before sending tens-of-thousands of troops to Ukraine, the two countries announced a partnership with "no limitations". About 20% of China's crude oil imports come from Russia China's Foreign Ministry reiterated on Oct 23 its position against unilateral sanctions when commenting about U.S. restrictions on Rosneft, Lukoil and other oil companies.
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Fuel prices are set to rise in Kyrgyzstan after Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries
Fuel prices could increase by 15% in Kyrgyzstan in the next few weeks due to a shortage of supplies from Russia. The state anti-monopoly agency said this on Thursday. Kyrgyzstan is feeling the impact of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries. Due to domestic shortages caused in part by the Ukrainian attacks that have affected up to a quarter of Russian refinery capacity, Russia has extended its export restrictions until 2025. Officials in Kyrgyzstan said that current reserves will last for about a month. However, they expect the situation to improve when autumn agricultural work, which increases demand, concludes in Russia. This week, several gas stations in Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, were temporarily out of fuel. This is not good timing for the government as it faces a snap election for parliament in November, where cost of living pressures will be the main issue. Syrgak Omorov, the deputy head of anti-monopoly services, stated that the government worked with Rosneft, a Russian oil company, and local distributors in order to stabilize prices and avoid "unjustified markups". The authorities have proposed temporary tax breaks and soft loans in order to reduce the impact of fuel traders. Official figures show that gasoline prices have increased by 8.8% in Kyrgyzstan since January. Diesel has risen by 6.3%. According to the economy ministry, these increases have been a major factor in inflation which was 8.4% annually in September. Kyrgyzstan has posted a 10% economic growth in the first nine months 2025. This is largely due to Western sanctions against Russia, which have led Moscow to import goods via Kyrgyzstan. Russia and Kyrgyzstan belong to a customs Union. The consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 have affected all five former Soviet Republics of Central Asia. Their economies are closely tied to Russia. Last week, Kyrgyzstan’s neighbor Kazakhstan implemented sweeping price controls for fuel and utility rates amid rising inflation. The fallout of the Ukraine war was blamed. The Karachaganak field in Kazakhstan has seen its production fall sharply due to a Ukrainian strike on the Russian Orenburg gas plant that processes Kazakh gas. Kyrgyzstan, under the populist and nationalist Sadyr Japarow, has adopted a pro-Russian stance on the Ukraine conflict. Several Kyrgyz bank have been sanctioned by Western countries for helping Russian sanctions to be evaded. Reporting by Aigerim Turgunbaeva; Writing by Felix Light, Editing by Mark Trevelyan
The spot crude premium is rising as US sanctions against Russian producers are driving China and India demand
Trade sources and analysts reported that spot premiums on crude markets rose on Thursday, as traders and analysts expected the U.S. sanctions against top Russian producers to spur China and India’s demand for supplies coming from the Middle East and Africa, and South America.
Washington imposed sanctions on major oil suppliers Lukoil and Rosneft over the Ukraine conflict, causing concern over a tighter supply from Russia. Russia is the largest supplier of crude oil to China and India. Brent oil futures, the global benchmark for crude oil, rose more than 4% Thursday.
Sources said that Indian refiners, as well as some Chinese companies who are among the top buyers of oil in the world, will curtail their Russian oil imports, to comply with new sanctions. They'll turn to alternative suppliers.
This prompted a surge in spot premiums Thursday for the key Middle Eastern benchmarks after they had fallen earlier this month due to an abundance of supply, as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies increased output.
Data showed that Cash Dubai's premium reached a high of $2.71 a barrel for the third consecutive session. This is more than twice the $1.26 compared to the previous session. On October 2, it hit a low of 22 months.
The data also showed that spot premiums for benchmark grades GME Oman, IFAD Murban, and IFAD Murban, both rose to new one-month highs of $3.12 a barrel and $2.86 a barrel, respectively.
Two sources who have direct knowledge of this matter confirmed on Thursday that Reliance Industries, a privately-owned company, will cease importing crude oil as part of a long-term agreement to purchase nearly 500,000 barrels of crude oil per day from Rosneft.
Sources with direct knowledge said that Indian state refiners, including Indian Oil Corp., Bharat Petroleum Corp. and Hindustan Petroleum Corp., are also reviewing their Russian trade documents in order to ensure that no oil will come directly from Rosneft or Lukoil following the U.S. sanctions against the oil companies.
Reliance purchased crude oil cargoes in recent days from Brazil and Middle East. These included Qatari al-Shaheen, Land grades and Iraqi Basra Medium. The crude could be used as a partial replacement for Russian supplies. Reliance was seen Thursday in the market scouting out supplies, according to a Middle Eastern merchant approached by Reliance.
We expect that most of the substitute crudes will come from the Middle East. Richard Jones, an Energy Aspects crude analyst, said that the urgent need for sour-barrels will allow the current Basra surplus to be cleared faster than previously expected.
The Brent-Dubai swap has fallen further into negative territory as a result of today's rally, which supports Atlantic basin arbs.
Brent's premium to Dubai quotes
Last week, Britain also sanctioned Rosneft (Russian oil company) and Lukoil (Russian oil company). Reporting by Florence Tan in Singapore and Siyi Luu in New Delhi, with additional reporting by Nidhi verma; editing by Harikrishnan Nair
(source: Reuters)