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Weaker dollar, Fed cut bets drive copper up
The copper price rose on Wednesday, thanks to a weaker US dollar and expectations for further interest rate reductions in the U.S. The price of three-month copper at the London Metal Exchange increased by 0.9%, to $10.673.50 per metric ton as of 0939 GMT. Copper reached its highest level in 16 months of $11,000 Oct. 9 due to the increased investment into hard assets, and concerns about reduced mine supplies after disruptions occurred in Indonesia, Chile and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Analysts added unexpected production accidents to their estimates of the supply-demand balance for metals used in construction and power by 2025. Amy Gower is a commodities strategist with Morgan Stanley. In his speech on Tuesday, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell opened the door to more rate cuts. The prospect of lower interest rate increases the appeal of metals priced in dollars for buyers who use other currencies. China, the world's largest metals consumer, was hoping for a fresh round of monetary stimulus after September data showed deflationary pressures continued, as both consumer and producer price fell amid a prolonged housing market slump and tensions with America. The premium between the LME Cash Copper Contract and the Three-Month Contract continued to drop, reaching its lowest point at $37 per ton. On Monday, it widened up to $227 - its highest level since June - due to activity in the run up to Wednesday when holders of short positions will have to reduce or rollover contracts. Zinc premium The price of a ton dropped to $75 from the previous day's $200. Gower stated that the LME contract is vulnerable to price volatility because zinc stocks are at their lowest levels since early 2023 in LME-registered storage warehouses. LME aluminium increased 0.4% to $2.747.50 per ton. Zinc rose 0.2% to $2.946.50, lead climbed 0.6% to $1.994, tin shot up 0.9% to $35.465, while nickel increased 0.3% to $15.175. (Reporting and editing by Louise Heavens; Polina Devitt)
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Poll: Swiss voters are likely to reject a proposed 50% tax on the super-rich -
According to a Wednesday poll, the Swiss referendum to impose a tax of 50% on inheritances worth 50 million Swiss Francs (62.53 millions) will likely be rejected by the voters. The October 8-9 survey by 20 Minuten and Tamedia of 11,178 Swiss citizens showed that two-thirds opposed the initiative to raise funds for climate change. Only 31% were in favor. The referendum will take place on 30 November. According to Swiss tax authorities there are currently around 2,500 taxpayers with assets of more than 50 millions francs. This represents a wealth totaling about 500 billion Swiss francs. The proposal, if adopted, would theoretically result in an additional 4 billion francs of tax revenue. Supporters of the RICH say that they damage the environment disproportionately. According to the JUSOs, the youth section of Social Democrats of the Left (leftist Social Democrats), who launched the initiative, these revenues should be invested into projects that reduce the impact on climate change. JUSO leader Mirjam Hostetmann said that those who consume luxury most are the ones responsible for the worst climate damage. She said, "The 10 wealthiest families in Switzerland cause as much emissions as 90% the Swiss population." "It is not fair that the entire population pays the cost." Business leaders have criticized the proposal and warned that it could lead to an exodus wealthy Swiss people, which would reduce overall tax revenue. One senior banker compared it to a nuclear bomb for the country. The government has called on voters to reject this initiative. Karin Keller Sutter, Swiss Finance Minister, said that the initiative would reduce Switzerland's appeal to wealthy individuals. Reporting by John Revill, Editing by Dave Graham. $1 = 0.7996 Swiss Francs.
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India's steel industry will be hit by a shortage of met coke in the first half 2025
India's steelmills only obtained about half their metallurgical coal needs from domestic suppliers during the first half 2025. This highlights shortages, and intensifies their calls for a easing of the import restrictions on this key steelmaking material. India produced 1.5 millions metric tons between January and June of metallurgical coal, but the demand was almost double at 3.09million tons, according to an insider and government data. India, which is the second largest crude steel producer in the world, implemented import restrictions on metallurgical coal in January, to stimulate the industry. In June, the country extended its curbs by setting country-specific quotas. It also capped overseas purchases between July 1 to December 31 at 1.4 millions tons. Steelmakers call for a reduction in import curbs Several steel mill executives who spoke on condition of anonymity as they were not authorized to speak to the media said that the latest data regarding the local metallurgical output raised doubts about this decision. Indian steel producers are urging the government to increase import quotas by nearly seven times to alleviate what they describe as a critical shortage. The Federal Ministry of Commerce and Industry has not responded to an email asking for comment. The Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers sent a letter to the government last year warning of possible supply disruptions of auto components. The industry group has not responded to an email seeking comments. Steelmakers such as JSW Steel, ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India, and ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India, have expressed concern about curbs. They claim that they interfere with their expansion plans because it is difficult to obtain preferred grades locally. The imports of low-ash coke have more than doubled over the past four years, with the major suppliers being China, Japan and Poland. (Reporting and editing by Mayank Bhahardwaj, Mark Potter and Neha Arora)
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Shanghai copper pares its losses amid optimism about rate cuts; trade tensions to be watched
Shanghai copper pared early losses on Monday, boosted by expectations for further U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Investors remained vigilant of U.S. China trade tensions. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most active copper contract closed the daytime trading lower by 0.2% at 85,650 Yuan ($12 020.55) per metric tonne. Early in the session, the contract traded at a low of 83,820 Yuan per ton. This was a drop of more than 1%. As of 0822 GMT, the benchmark three-month price for copper had also recovered from Tuesday's losses, rising by 1.06% and trading at $10,690 per ton. Red metal prices were supported by renewed U.S. interest rate cuts as Jerome Powell, the U.S. Federal Reserve chair's Tuesday speech signaled an unchanged economic outlook compared to weeks ago when policymakers cut rates and predicted two more reductions this year. Powell pointed to the weakening job market as a sign that he should consolidate a rate reduction later this year despite the still high and possibly rising inflation. Copper prices rose after Powell's speech as the dollar weakened. Investors using other currencies can get cheaper commodities when the dollar is weaker. The market was supported by concerns over a shortage of supply due to disruptions in the mining industry, including the Grasberg mine suspension. This helped to limit any price decline. The market continued to focus on the tensions surrounding US-China trading relationships. On Tuesday, Donald Trump, the U.S. president, threatened to end some trade relations with China over cooking oil. Trump's threat was the latest escalation of trade tensions ahead of a high-stakes summit between Trump and his Chinese equivalent Xi Jinping in South Korea later this month. Beijing has sent a conciliatory message, stating that its export control on rare earths does not represent a complete export ban. However, it left the door open to talks. Scott Bessent of the U.S. Treasury Department said that talks between leaders in South Korea were still proceeding according to schedule. Nickel grew 0.37%. Lead climbed 0.91%. Tin was up 0.2%. $1 = 7.1253 Chinese yuan renminbi $1 = 7.1253 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Janane Vekatraman; Lewis Jackson, Dylan Duan)
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Indonesia resumes international carbon trading after four years
According to a copy seen on Wednesday, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto has issued a decree to resume international carbon trading after a hiatus of four years. In 2021, the Southeast Asian country published carbon market regulations that focused more on compliance than voluntary markets. The regulation effectively ended all trading of carbon credits across borders, even those generated by large projects such as the Katingan Mentaya Conservation Project. Indonesia claimed that the moratorium allows the country to prioritise meeting its own greenhouse-gas reduction targets instead of selling the reductions abroad. The suspension was also a result of concerns that carbon prices were too low and countries selling the product weren't benefiting from it. Until now, Indonesia had been one of the largest suppliers of carbon credits on the international market. This was mainly through the REDD+ reforestation program. The new decree signed by the president last week, and made public on Tuesday, allows for the international trade of carbon offset units in accordance to Indonesian standards or standards set forth by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, and other international certifiers. In order to avoid double counting, the decree calls for a decentralised registry of carbon units. This registry will be transparent and operate in real-time. Prabowo who is about to celebrate his first anniversary as president, on October 20, plans to generate capital from the sale of carbon offsets by foreign buyers for projects like rainforest preservation. This year, Indonesia signed agreements of mutual recognition with international organisations which certify projects to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. These include Verra Gold Standard, Global Carbon Council Plan Vivo, and Joint Credit Mechanism. Officials have stated that these deals are meant to facilitate international trade in carbon and foreign investment to support Indonesia's goals on climate change. Indonesia's local Carbon Exchange, which was launched in September 2023 and offers carbon credits to foreign buyers, began offering certificates of carbon credits to foreign buyers last year. However, trading has been very thin. Indonesia has committed to achieving net-zero emissions of greenhouse gases by 2060, or sooner. (Reporting and editing by David Stanway; Gayatri Suryo)
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Aurubis shares fall as Salzgitter's share shrinks in bond deal
The shares of German copper producer Aurubis dropped on Wednesday, after Salzgitter, the company's largest shareholder sold bonds worth 500 million euros ($582 millions) that could be exchanged for 7.6% Aurubis stock. Aurubis shares, which had been boosted by the booming copper market, dropped 6.7% at 0752 GMT to 108.2 Euros, erasing gains made earlier in the month. This move quenched simmering speculation about a takeover. Salzgitter held 29.99% in Aurubis, and a stake greater than 30% would have required a mandatory offer for remaining shareholders. The bonds are due in 2032 and offer a fixed interest rate of 3,375%. They can be exchanged for Aurubis shares, at a price of 145.80 euro, initially. BNP Paribas acted as global coordinators, Commerzbank acted in the capacity of bookrunners, and UniCredit was the joint global coordinator. The transaction aims to diversify Salzgitter’s maturity profile and financing structure. Salzgitter's shares rose 0.5% and the company plans to list its bonds on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange Open Market segment.
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Iron ore prices continue to fall as US-China trade tensions and rising steel stocks weigh
Iron ore futures declined on Wednesday for the second consecutive session. This was due to concerns about demand, resulting from an escalating Sino-U.S. Trade spat as well as rising steel inventories in China, which is the top consumer. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that Washington is considering ending some trade relations with China. The U.S., and China began Tuesday charging each other additional port fees for ocean shipping companies. This is another sign that tensions are rising between the two world's largest economies. These tensions have impacted the market sentiment and pushed down commodity prices. The daytime trading price of the most traded January iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange closed 1.46% lower, at 776.5 Yuan ($108.97), per metric tonne. On Tuesday, the contract reached a low of more than a month. As of 8:10 GMT, the benchmark November iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange fell 0.45% to $104.7 per ton. Accumulated steel stocks could also affect the price of this key ingredient, as they can reduce margins, and make mills less interested in acquiring more feedstock. Analyst Zhuo Guqiu at Jinrui Futures said that the latest data revealed steel inventories continue to accumulate, causing concern over ore supply outlook. The hot metal production may continue to fall due to the increasing losses in some mills. Analysts at Everbright Futures say that ore demand is expected to remain strong in the short term and support prices. The data released by the China Iron and Steel Association, a state-sponsored organization, showed that the daily crude steel production among members steelmakers increased by 7.5% compared to the same 10-day period in September. Coking coal, coke and other steelmaking materials have risen by 1.01% apiece and 0.34% respectively. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are mixed. Rebar dropped 0.85%, while stainless steel fell 0.24%. Hot-rolled coils lost 0.86%, and wire rod gained 0.45%.
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OPEC Secretary general says that oil and gas industry requires more investment
Haitham Al Ghais, Secretary General of OPEC, reiterated Wednesday that oil and gas will continue to make up about 30% in the global energy mix until 2050. He said that a growing economy, population increase and urbanisation are all signs "that the world will require much more energy than what it consumes today", in his remarks at the Russian Energy Week Conference in Moscow. He predicted a 23% increase in the primary energy demand between 2050 and 2050. "Yes, the world is turbulent and there's much going on. But that's constant." "For us at OPEC, the constant is our ability to separate all the noise from the detailed, technical analysis we perform," he said. OPEC's forecasts of demand are higher than industry estimates. It expects a more gradual energy transition, unlike other forecasters such as the International Energy Agency. The latter has predicted a peak in oil demand by 2029, and a glut of up to 4 million barrels of oil per day in 2026. OPEC+ - a grouping of OPEC and Russia, as well as other allies - is adding crude oil to the market, after some member countries decided that they would unwind production cuts faster than originally planned. This extra supply adds to fears about a glut, and is weighing down on oil prices in this year.
India's palm-oil imports have fallen to a four-month low, as refiners prefer cheaper soyoil
The Solvent Extractors' Association of India reported on Wednesday that India's palm oils imports fell to their lowest level since May, as refiners switched to soyoil which is cheaper. Soyoil shipments reached a three-year record.
The benchmark Malaysian palm futures are expected to be impacted by lower palm oil imports from India, which is the largest buyer of vegetable oil in the world. Meanwhile, U.S. soybean futures will benefit.
The industry trade group said that India's imports of palm oil in September fell 16.3% to 829.017 metric tonnes, their lowest level since May.
Imports of sunflower oil rose 6%, to 272,386 tonnes, which is the highest since January.
According to the trade association, India's total imports of edible oils in September fell by 1% on a month-on-month basis. This equated to 1,60 million tons.
India's palm-oil imports in October are expected to drop to about 600,000 tonnes, while imports of soyoil will likely surpass 450,000 tons. This is according to a Mumbai-based trader with a global trading house.
India imports mainly palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia. It also imports sunflower oil and soyoil from Argentina, Brazil and Ukraine.
Dealers said that India bought 300,000 tonnes of soyoil in Argentina between September 23 and 24, making it the largest purchase ever made within a two-day time period. They took advantage of Buenos Aires’ decision to abolish export taxes on soybeans, and other food items.
The demand for edible oils in India, especially palm oil, usually increases during festival seasons due to increased consumption of sweets, fried foods, and other fried food. Reporting by Anmol Chaubey, Mumbai; editing by Himani Sarkar & Mrigank Dhaniwala
(source: Reuters)