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Wall Street indexes set records as Nvidia soars and megacap earnings are ahead
Investors were confident about corporate earnings as they awaited the key results of megacaps due this week. The three major U.S. indexes also posted record highs on Tuesday. Jensen Huang said that Nvidia will build seven supercomputers to be used by the U.S. Department of Energy. He also said that the company had $500 billion worth of bookings on its AI chips. Nvidia announced details about a new partnership with Nokia, a Finnish telecom equipment manufacturer. The two companies will target the AI communication market. Microsoft shares rose after a deal was reached that allowed OpenAI to become a public benefit company while Microsoft received a 27% stake in ChatGPT. Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon are all expected to release their quarterly results this week. Investors want to know more about the AI expenditure of these companies. Peter Cardillo is the chief market economist of Spartan Capital Securities, New York. He said that "momentum and earnings" are driving the market higher. He said, "Earnings are good." "We're still waiting for big tech stocks." Trump lavished praises on Japan's first woman leader, Sanae Takayichi, on Tuesday in Tokyo. The two nations signed an agreement to boost supplies of rare earths and critical minerals, in order to counter China's dominance over some electronic components. The preliminary data shows that the S&P 500 rose 15.79 points or 0.24% to 6,890.95 while the Nasdaq Composite rose 190.04 or 0.80% to 23,827.49. The Dow Jones Industrial Average grew 162.06 points or 0.34% to 47,706.65. United Parcel Service's shares climbed after the company forecast revenue for the fourth quarter that was above expectations. FedEx, the rival company, also rose. Earnings up by Quarter According to LSEG, the third-quarter earnings of S&P 500 firms are expected to have increased by 10.5% compared to the previous period. This is an increase from earlier estimates. Federal Reserve will likely announce a rate cut this week. Investors are eager to learn more about the outlook for interest rates, given that the U.S. Government has been closed for almost a month. This has delayed important economic data, forcing traders to rely solely on corporate and private announcements. A preliminary estimate from the ADP National Employment Report revealed that the U.S. added 14,250 jobs on average in the four-week period ending October 11, according to the report.
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Mondelez defeats greenwashing lawsuit over 'climate neutral' Clif Bar claim
A federal judge dismissed an attempted class action lawsuit that accused Mondelez International, of misleading consumers into paying more for Clif bars labeled as "climate-neutral certified." U.S. district judge Manish Shah found that the labels of Clif Kid Zbar products and Zbar Protein that showed a certification by Change Climate Project (a nonprofit that assists companies in reducing emissions) were not wrong. Shah dismissed the case with prejudice, which means it cannot be brought back. Cynthia Salguero, a plaintiff from Chicago, accused Mondelez, a Chicago-based company, of "greenwashing," or exaggerating a product's environmental impact, by labeling Zbars "climate neutral." She stated that the Zbars manufacturing process emits 54,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide per year, which is the equivalent of 12,596 gasoline powered cars. This causes a higher concentration in greenhouse gases, and contributes to climate change. The judge ruled that Mondelez had not advertised that Zbars are climate neutral. Only that they have been certified as such. Shah wrote, "This is an important distinction." Mondelez's inclusion of a true statement .... on its packaging is not deceptive. Salguero’s complaint misstated the promise Mondelez made to potential customers. Salguero's lawyers and Mondelez did not respond immediately to comments. Salguero is a resident from Anaheim in California. He had requested unspecified damages due to Mondelez's alleged false statements and violation of California consumer protection laws. Salguero V. Mondelez International Inc., U.S. District Court Northern District of Illinois No. 25-02139. Reporting by Jonathan Stempel, New York; editing by Lisa Shumaker
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Wall Street indexes rise amid optimism about earnings; Nvidia gains
Investors were optimistic about corporate earnings as they awaited the key results of companies such as Apple, which are due this week. Nvidia shares were up last by 4.1%. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang announced that the company would build seven supercomputers to be used by the U.S. Department of Energy. He also said the company had $500 billion of bookings on its AI chips. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, had said earlier that he would be meeting Huang. Microsoft shares gained 2.4% following a deal in which the company agreed to allow OpenAI's restructure as a public benefit corporation, while also giving Microsoft a 27% stake in ChatGPT. Apple shares were almost flat on the day after the company's market cap surpassed $4 trillion for the first. The company will report its quarterly results on the following Thursday. Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon are also scheduled to release their quarterly results this week. Investors want to know how much money companies are spending on artificial intelligence. Peter Cardillo is the chief market economist of Spartan Capital Securities, New York. He said that "momentum and earnings" are driving the market higher. He said, "Earnings are good." "Of Course, We're Waiting for the Big Tech Stocks." Trump lavished praises on Japan's first woman leader, Sanae Takayichi, on Tuesday in Tokyo. The two nations signed an agreement to boost supplies of rare earths and critical minerals, in order to counter China's dominance over some electronic components. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 346.20, or 0.7%, to reach 47,890.00. The S&P 500 rose 29.56, or 0.4%, to 6,904.72, while the Nasdaq Composite grew 225.51, or 1.5%, at 23,862.96. United Parcel Service's shares rose 7.8% after it forecasted fourth-quarter revenues above expectations. FedEx, the rival company, added 1.5%. Earnings up by Quarter According to LSEG, the third-quarter earnings of S&P 500 firms are expected to have increased by 10.5% compared to the previous period. This is up from an 8.8% increase earlier in the month. The U.S. Government has been closed for almost a month. This delays important economic data, forcing traders to rely solely on corporate and private announcements. A preliminary estimate from the ADP National Employment Report revealed that the U.S. added 14,250 jobs on average in the four-week period ending October 11, according to the report. Investors have also examined layoff reports by companies such as Amazon, Paramount and UPS. Federal Reserve will likely announce a rate cut this week. Investors are eager to learn more about the outlook for interest rates. On the NYSE, declining issues outnumbered advancing ones by a ratio of 1.13 to 1. On the NYSE, there were 504 new lows and 89 brand new highs. On the Nasdaq 2,086 shares rose, while 2,535 declined. Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones by a ratio of 1.22-to-1.
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US appeals Court revives $2.5 Billion opioid lawsuit in West Virginia
The 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals on Tuesday reinstated a lawsuit for $2.5 billion against drug distributors who were accused of contributing towards an opioid crisis in West Virginia. This decision overturned a 2022 trial victory by the biggest drug suppliers in the U.S. The 4th U.S. The 4th Circuit Court of Appeals ruled a lower court erred in concluding that Cencora Corp, McKesson Corp, and Cardinal Health had not created a "public inconvenience" by supplying a large number of addictive pills to the pharmacies of Cabell County and Huntington. The 4th Circuit has reopened this case and said that the lower court must re-evaluate if the drug companies are responsible for paying for addiction prevention and treatment efforts in Cabell County and the City of Huntington, due to their alleged failures to stop large orders from pharmacies. Cencora Cardinal Health, and McKesson have not responded to comments immediately. Huntington Mayor Patrick Farrell stated that the city is looking forward to this new opportunity to hold drug companies accountable for "the devastating damage that they have done to our city and to far too many families." Distributors had agreed to pay as much as $21 billion in order to settle thousands of lawsuits filed against them by local and state governments across the country. Communities in West Virginia, which was hard hit by the opioid crisis, chose not to join the national settlement and instead sought a larger recovery. In 2022, U.S. district judge David Faber ruled in favor the three drug companies, concluding that West Virginia's law on "public nuisances" did not create any liability for companies who sold prescription drugs and that the companies had met their obligation to report suspicious orders of drug to U.S. regulatory agencies. The 4th Circuit reversed those findings. The appeals court determined that the three drug manufacturers shipped opioids in quantities exceeding the thresholds set by distributors for "suspicious orders" without reporting sales to the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration. According to the 4th Circuit, Cencora (formerly AmerisourceBergen) supplied 775 potentially suspect orders over a period of five years from a single Cabell County pharmacy, but only reported 16 orders to the DEA.
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Dollar slips ahead of Fed meeting and earnings are eyed
Investors awaited Federal Reserve policy decisions, and digested the corporate earnings, as global shares reached an intraday high. Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to kick-off a series of announcements by global central banks. This includes those from Japan, Canada and Europe. According to CME's FedWatch Tool, the Fed is widely expected at this meeting to reduce interest rates. Markets are pricing in a 95.8% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut. The recent signs that trade tensions between China and the U.S. were easing have helped to boost risk appetite. Stocks are higher, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury is still near its multi-month low. The ongoing U.S. shutdown has also led to an absence of economic data that investors can parse. Investors are looking at other sources of information to gauge the health of the economy, as government data is lacking. The ADP National Employment Report released its first weekly estimate on Tuesday. It showed that private payrolls in the United States increased by 14,250 jobs per week over the last four weeks. Subadrarajappa, the head of U.S. Rates Strategy at Societe Generale, New York, said: "Volatility is extraordinarily low, which in some ways, is surprising, given the uncertainty. But it appears to be very, stable and you are seeing the kind of continued rally in risks assets." "So, you've got a combination of lower yields, more favourable financial conditions, a drop in inflation, and a somewhat stable job market, which is a difficult read for the economy, especially at the Fed meeting." At their meetings, the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan will likely keep rates largely unchanged. Dow leads gains among major indices Wall Street saw a rise in U.S. stock prices, thanks in part to a 2.1% increase in Microsoft following a deal which allows OpenAI's restructure as a public benefit company while giving Microsoft a 27% stake of the ChatGPT maker. Sherwin-Williams also saw a 5.5% increase after it reported earnings for the quarter that exceeded expectations. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 281.40 points or 0.59% to 47,826.92. The S&P 500 rose by 6.05 points or 0.09% to 6,881.21. And the Nasdaq Composite climbed 50.84 points or 0.22% to 23,688.29. Each of these reached intraday records. "It is impressive that we are still hitting all-time records," said Jack Herr, primary investment analyst at GuideStone. Jack Herr, GuideStone's primary investment analyst, said that tech and AI, as well as the Big Seven, have driven performance in recent months, but earnings are also good. The market has rallied recently as U.S. president Donald Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping meet Thursday to discuss a framework which could pause the tougher U.S. duties and China's export restrictions on rare earths. This would ease concerns about a possible trade war. This week, Microsoft, Alphabet Apple, Amazon, and Meta Platforms will report their earnings. Investors will be watching closely to see if the results justify high valuations. More than four out of five S&P companies beat expectations LSEG data shows that 86.7% of the 180 S&P companies who have reported earnings to date have surpassed analyst expectations. MSCI's global stock index rose 2.18 points or 0.22% to a new record of 1,014.68. The pan-European STOXX 600 closed at a loss of 0.22%. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes dropped 1.6 basis points to 3,981%. The dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket of currencies) fell by 0.09%, while the euro rose 0.15%, reaching $1.1661. The dollar fell 0.46% against the Japanese yen to 152.16, after comments by a Japanese Minister and U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent helped ease some concerns over a more expansive fiscal policy and monetary policies in the country. The value of the pound fell by 0.45%, to $1.3275. U.S. crude oil fell by 2.07%, to $60.04 a barrel, while Brent dropped to $64.26 a barrel. Investors weighed the impact of U.S. sanction on Russia's largest oil companies, as well as a possible OPEC+ production plan.
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Gold falls to a three-week low amid US China trade progress
Gold fell to its lowest level in three weeks on Tuesday, as investors turned their attention to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate announcement this week. As of 1:45 pm EDT (1745 GMT), spot gold was down by 0.4% to $3,964.35 an ounce after reaching its lowest level since 6 October. U.S. Gold Futures dropped 0.9% and settled at $3,983.1 an ounce. Gold, traditionally a hedge in times of uncertainty, and an asset that does not yield, has gained over 51% this past year. This is due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade conflicts, as well the expected U.S. rate cuts. "The U.S. - China trade tensions have diminished significantly, with a potential trade deal this week following a meeting between Presidents Xi & Trump. This is bad news for safe-haven precious metals," said Jim Wyckoff. Senior analyst at Kitco Metals. This weekend, top Chinese and U.S. officials in the economic field finalized a framework for a possible deal that President Donald Trump will review with Chinese President Xi Jinping at their Thursday meeting. The hopes of an easing in trade tensions has stoked global optimism, with Wall Street’s main indexes setting new records on Tuesday. Investors are also awaiting the Fed's policy meeting of two days on Wednesday. It is widely believed that the U.S. Central Bank will cut interest rates by one quarter of a percent. Analysts are divided on the outlook for safe-haven metals. Some see continued highs while others are cautious. Citi and Capital Economics both lowered their gold prices forecasts for Monday. The London Bullion Market Association held its annual meeting on Saturday, predicting that the price of gold would be $4,980 an ounce in 12 months. Bank of America stated in a report that the market had become overbought and this was what finally caused this week's price correction. They also noted that gold is nearing its bearish forecast of 3,800 per ounce for the fourth quarter. After reaching its lowest price on September 26, spot silver rose 0.7% to $47.21 an ounce. Palladium fell 0.1%, to $1401.63, while platinum remained at $1589.87. (Reporting and editing by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru, Pablo Sinha at the London Stock Exchange; Alan Barona).
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US citizens in Mali warned to leave the country immediately
Tuesday, the United States warned Americans living in Mali to immediately leave using commercial flights. The government is under increasing pressure by insurgents linked to al Qaeda, who have imposed a fuel embargo. Early September, militants from Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam and Muslimin announced a ban on fuel imports into the landlocked West African nation. Since then, they have attacked convoys of tankers trying to enter the country and reach Bamako. Due to fuel shortage, the government ordered on Sunday the suspension of all school and university classes in Mali for a period of two weeks. The U.S. Embassy in Mali issued a statement that said: "Persistent challenges with infrastructure in Mali, including the continued disruption of gasoline and diesel supply, the closing of public institutions like schools and universities throughout the country, and the ongoing armed conflict in the area of Bamako between the Malian government, terrorist elements, and the Malian government, increase the unpredictable nature of Bamako’s security situation." Analysts describe the fuel blockade by militant groups as part of an effort to pressure Mali's government, which is led militarily. They want to cut the oxygen supply for the economy. The embassy stated that the airport in Bamako is still open and advised Americans to use commercial flights to leave rather than travel over land to other countries because of the dangers associated with "terrorist acts along national highways." It said that U.S. citizens choosing to stay in Mali need to prepare contingency plans. This includes sheltering in place in case of an extended period. The embassy cannot provide assistance to Americans living outside of the capital. The State Department has authorized the departure from Mali of U.S. government employees and their families who are not in an emergency. This is due to safety concerns. Travel advisories for Mali are at level 4, which means "do no travel".
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Dominion, a US utility company, expects the demand for data centers to double by 2039
Dominion Energy in the United States, which is responsible for the world's largest concentration of data centres, has said that it expects the power consumption to double within the next 15 years, mainly due to the surge in demand from these facilities. Robert Blue, the CEO of Virginia's utility, said at a Denver conference on Tuesday that data centers account for 27%. Blue stated that "we expect the demand to double by the year 2039, driven by no small part by expansion of the data centers industry." Richmond, Virginia based company stated that its top 10 all-time peaks of customer demand happened in 2025. Dominion is part of the PJM Interconnection which is the largest grid operator of the United States, encompassing 13 states plus the District of Columbia. Data centers are driving PJM's explosive growth. The demand for artificial intelligence to power these data centers is pushing the expectations of annual growth up to over 6% from 0.5% during summer 2021. Blue explained that "all of this requires some significant changes." Blue's company is targeting more than 33 gigawatts in new power generation within the next 20-year period. In 2027, it will spend $2.8 billion on the transmission system. This is an increase of $2.1 billion from last year. The increase in 2024 was 18% compared to the previous year. Blue stated, "We must find a way to distribute the costs fairly and get the power to the new customers." The growing demand for data centers has led to concerns about higher electricity prices. Dominion has announced that it is proposing a tariff to be paid by large-load or heavy energy consumers. This would require these customers to pay minimum charges for different services. The proposal would require large-load clients to sign 14-year contracts and adhere to new credit and deposit requirements. (Reporting and editing by Paul Simao in Denver, Liz Hampton is Denver.
MORNING BID - EUROPE - Gold at $4K. Be very, very afraid
Ankur Banerjee gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets
The markets are battling political turmoil in Japan, France, and the U.S. This is pushing gold to record highs, with the metal being used as a safe haven by investors.
Spot gold is in a flurry - to say it has been on fire would be an understatement. The eye-watering 50 percent gain this year comes on top of the 27% increase in 2024, and 13% in 2023.
Investors' appetite for gold is still insatiable. According to World Gold Council data, global inflows into gold-related ETFs have reached $64 billion for the year. September saw a record-breaking $17.3 billion.
Gold has been touted as the preferred hedge due to the expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in the short term, concerns over geopolitical uncertainties and economic uncertainty along with the fear of an AI bubble.
This is a sign that you should be concerned.
Investors are captivated by the French political scene, where President Emmanuel Macron is under increasing pressure to resign and hold a snap parliamentary elections.
France experienced further political turmoil this week, after its fifth Prime Minister in less than two-years resigned. The markets have been frightened, as the risk premium for French government bond rates is near a 9-month high.
Even though the U.S. government shutdown is now in its eighth day, the euro has suffered and this has given some relief to the dollar.
The Japanese yen continued to fall, extending its losses of over 3% within just three sessions. The Japanese yen has returned to its mid-February level, hovering at 152.50 dollars per yen as whispered-about intervention risks are emerging.
Market reaction to Sanae Takaichi’s victory was explosive. The yen collapsed, Nikkei reached record highs, and long-end bonds yields surged due to concerns about fiscal health and declining bets on another rate increase this year.
Yet, it is difficult to predict the direction of fiscal policy in the short term. Investors hope that her stance is softer this year than it was last year.
The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Wednesday.
German Industrial Data for August
(source: Reuters)