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Chinese data shows that copper has fallen from its three-month high.
The copper price fell on Friday, from its three-month high after weak data out of China's top metals consumer and some profit taking. However, losses were minimal due to tight underlying conditions and high premiums. By 1000 GMT, the benchmark London Metal Exchange three-month copper fell 0.6% to $9,838 per kilogram after reaching $9,917 at its highest level since March 27. It was up by 2.7% this week. The data showed that China’s industrial profits fell sharply in May compared to a year ago, due to a slowdown in factory activity. Nitesh Sha, commodity strategist for WisdomTree, said that falling industrial profits are not good news for the industry in general. However, it does not translate directly into lower copper demand. The copper stories are still in full force, as we can see. Shah said that China has spent a lot on its grid. Citi stated in a report that it hit a new record in 2018 and increased by 19% during the first five months in 2025. The Shanghai Futures Exchange copper price rose by 1.5%, to 79.920 yuan (11,148.93 dollars), after hitting 80.060 yuan - its highest level since March 31. The copper price was up by 2% over the past week. The expectation that the United States would impose tariffs against copper imports has caused metal to be pulled into that country, causing shortages elsewhere. The data released on Friday shows that the inventories of warehouses monitored and controlled by ShFE Sliding 19% from the week before to 81.550 tons. This is a 70% drop over the last four months. LME copper stock has fallen 66% over the same period. This has sent premiums for contracts near LME copper to soar. The LME Cash Copper Contract Premium over the Three-Month Contract On Thursday, the price of a ton rose to $320, its highest level since November 2021. It was $101 on Wednesday. U.S. Comex Copper Futures dropped 1.3% to $5.06 per lb. This brings the premium of Comex to LME Copper to $1,321 per ton. Other metals include LME aluminium, which fell by 0.5% to 2,572 per ton. Zinc fell 0.6%, to $2.752, while lead dropped 0.32%, to $2.031.50. Nickel fell by 0.1%, to $15.195, and tin declined 0.6%, to $33,565. Click here to see the latest news in metals.
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Nornickel, a Russian metal, expects a negative impact from trade wars and high rates
The Russian mining giant Nornickel announced on Friday that it expects to see its financial results deteriorate in this year due to low metals prices and high interest rates. It also cited the strong rouble, global trade wars, as well as high interest rate. Nornickel is the largest producer of palladium in the world and also a major producer for refined nickel. Nornickel does not fall under Western sanctions directed at Russia. The sanctions have led to payment problems, limited its access to Western equipment, and caused some Western producers not to buy Russian metal. The CFO of Nornickel, Sergey Malyshev, said that "this year, extreme geopolitical uncertainties, continued volatility in the target markets in the context of escalating global trade wars, and risks of a slower growth rate in the global economy, as well tight monetary policies, continue to have a negative impact on financial indicators." Malyshev said that the company also faces low metals prices as a result of the strengthening rouble this year and high inflation, in addition to its debt and costs. The Bank of Russia’s key rate of 20% has been cited by government officials and business leaders as an important drag on the economy. This year, the economy is expected to be impacted dramatically. Malyshev stated that Nornickel was forced to reduce its investments and some projects were put on hold due to the difficult conditions. Last month, the company's board recommended that Nornickel not pay dividends based on its 2024 results. Malyshev stated that it was not appropriate to pay dividends through an increase in debt. (Reporting and writing by Anastasia Lyrchikova, Editing by Mark Trevelyan).
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UN tries to salvage Global Development Summit after US boycott
Next week, scores of world leaders are expected to bask in the sun of southern Spain at the once-a decade United Nations Development Financing Summit aimed at curbing poverty and disease around the globe as well as the worst threats of climate changes. The United States' decision to not attend the event earlier this month, the largest aid donor and major financier in the world, casts a chill over the event. UN countries are trying to fill a funding gap of $4 trillion per year, which they estimate is preventing the developing world from achieving Sustainable Development Goals. These goals range from reducing infant mortality rates to minimising climate change. The "Seville Commitment", as it is called, has been criticized by critics for not being bold enough. After a year-long of difficult negotiations, the measures agreed upon by consensus include a tripling of multilateral lending, debt relief, an effort to increase tax-to GDP ratios to 15% or more, and a shift in IMF special money to those countries who need it the most. The U.S. withdrawal has marred the run-up to the summit, as it cites a number red lines that were crossed, such as the push to triple the development bank lending and change tax rules, or the use of "gender" when describing the summit. The European Union joined the summit only with reservations, notably over the way debt is discussed at the UN. Amina Mohammed, Deputy Secretary General of the United Nations, spoke to reporters about Washington's boycott this week. She described it as "regrettable", particularly after Washington's "catastrophic", recent aid cuts which she claimed had cost lives and livelihoods. She said that, speaking alongside officials of the summit's host, Spain, and Zambia, who helped organize it, the final outcome document reflected "ambition and reality" and the U.N. will try to reengage the U.S. afterward. Remy Rioux said that Donald Trump's views were not a surprise. It is hoped that the agreements reached next week will enable bolder actions at the UN climate negotiations in Brazil in November. "We will push the new framework... and its operationalisation, from Seville to Belem," said he, referring the Brazilian city which will host the COP30. Aid in decline Multilateral lenders will also automatically give vulnerable countries the option of inserting repayment break clauses in their loans if they are affected by hurricane, drought or flooding. A "Global SDR Playbook" is another buzzword. It's a plan in which the richest countries transfer the Special Draw Rights (like IMF reserves) they have to multilateral banks who use them as capital to lend more. Many campaigners say that the plan will not be enough, particularly as 130 countries are now in a critical state of debt and many spend far more on repayments than they do on education or health. Aid and support from wealthy countries who are themselves in debt is also dropping. The U.S. cut more than 80% in March of the programmes within its USAID agency, following budget cuts led by Elon Musk. Britain, France and Germany have also made cuts over the past few years. The OECD predicts a drop of 9-17% in net official Development Assistance (ODA) by 2025. This follows a 9% decrease in 2024. The OECD estimates that bilateral ODA for sub-Saharan Africa and least developed countries may drop between 13-25%, while health funding might fall up to 60% since its peak in 2022. What would be the best outcome for Seville, given that the U.S. has pulled out? Orville Grey, of the International Institute for Sustainable Development said that we should not be backtracking on our funding commitments at this time. "We should remain stable."
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US dollar falls as shares rise on hopes of trade between China and the US
The European stock market indexes rose on Friday on the back of signs of progress in U.S. China trade talks. Meanwhile, the dollar fell to its lowest level in over three years. The global stock markets reached record highs in the past week as traders gained confidence following a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, and markets increased bets on U.S. interest rate cuts. Markets also viewed the U.S.-China agreement on rare earth shipment expediting to the U.S. on Thursday as a positive development, in the midst of efforts to end the trade war between the two largest economies. Early trading in Europe saw European shares rise after Asian shares surpassed their previous highs of more than three-years, following the Wall Street rally. The pan-European STOXX 600 index was up 0.9% for the day at 0852 GMT. This represents a weekly gain of 1.1%. London's FTSE 100 rose 0.5%, while Germany's DAX gained 0.8%. The MSCI World Equity Index rose 0.2% for the day, resulting in a 2.9% weekly gain. The S&P 500 is only up 4.4% for the entire year. This follows a volatile year that was dominated by President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day", tariff announcement, which sent stocks plummeting on April 2. Aviva Investors' senior economist and strategist, Vasileios Gionakis said: "What we have right now is potential optimism about some trade agreements." "We've come a long way from the lows we experienced in the wake of Liberation Day, in April. In a sense, we are also rebounding from the mini-selloff that followed the events in the Middle East. He added, "It's still early, but there is a feeling in the market that trade deals and wars are becoming a bit tiresome. We would like to move on." Trump has set a deadline of July 9 for the European Union to come to an agreement to reduce tariffs. DOLLAR DROPS Dollar index fell 0.2% in the US dollar on a single day to 97.183. This is the lowest level for more than three-years. The euro is at $1.1713 after data revealed that French consumer prices increased more than expected in the month of June. The markets are focusing on U.S. economic policy as traders assess the likelihood of Trump announcing the appointment of a new chair, who is more dovish. The traders have increased their bets that the U.S. will cut rates this year. They now expect 64 basis points of easing, compared to 46 bps on Friday. The dollar has had its worst start since the advent of the free-floating currency era in the early 1970s. Aviva Investors Gkionakis stated, "I do not think that it is just about the Fed repricing. I think there's a wider issue here of a tarnishing the U.S.exceptionalism." The U.S. Central Bank's preferred inflation measure, Core PCE prices, will be released later in the day. The benchmark German 10-year bond was little changed, at 2.567%. Oil prices are set to fall the most in commodities since March 2023. Prices have cooled down after briefly rising above $80 due to news of an Israel-Iran war. Brent crude futures traded at $68.35 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate was trading at $65.24.
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Iron ore gains the most in six weeks on declining inventories
Iron ore futures gained on Friday, posting the largest weekly gain since 16 May, on declining iron ore inventories and steel stocks, which outweighed Taiwan's antidumping duties. The day-traded price of the most traded September iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was 716.5 Yuan ($99.95) per metric ton. This week the contract gained 1.64%, ending two weeks of consecutive losses. As of 0801 GMT the benchmark July iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange was up 1.43% at $94.65 per ton, a gain of 1.11% for this week. This is a rally after five weeks of consecutive losses. Analysts at ANZ said that falling iron ore inventories were a positive factor, protecting iron ore prices from a downward trend. SteelHome data shows that the total stockpiles in China of iron ore fell by 0.74% on a weekly basis to 133.6 millions tons at the end of June. Mysteel data shows that finished steel inventories held in China by traders continue to decline from June 20 through to 26. This is the seventh consecutive week of a decrease. Mysteel said that the rate of fall was slower than the previous week, and this could be due to an increase in production at mills domestically. The Mideast ceasefire has boosted investor sentiment, and China's stocks are on track to post their largest weekly gains in over seven months. China's industrial profit is still growing swung back In May, profits at industrial firms in China fell sharply compared to a year ago, due to a combination of a price war between automakers and a sluggish demand domestically. Taiwan will impose anti-dumping tariffs as high as 20,15% on Chinese hot-rolled steel beginning July 3. Coking coal and coke both rose by 4.89% and 2.52 %, respectively. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have largely gained ground. Rebar, hot-rolled coil and wire rod all gained around 1%. Stainless steel dropped 0.04%. ($1 = 7.1685 Chinese yuan). (Reporting and editing by Janane Venkatraman, Harikrishnan Nair and Lucas Liew)
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Moeve sells 25% of its offshore Suriname stake to TotalEnergies
By America Hernandez PARIS, 27 June - TotalEnergies announced on Friday that it had acquired from the Spanish company Moeve a 25% stake of Block 53 offshore Suriname. Financial details were not disclosed. The block is located adjacent to the Gran Morgu project, which Total invested in last October. It is estimated that this development will yield more than 700,000,000 barrels of recoverable oil. South America has not yet produced hydrocarbons but it has ambitions to follow in the footsteps of neighbouring Guyana where Exxon Mobil led a consortium that discovered over 11 billion barrels worth of recoverable oil. Total has announced that Block 53, which contains a discovery of oil and gas near Gran Morgu's border, will allow the project to expand. Moeve (formerly CEPSA), Spain's second-largest oil company, sold 70% of the assets it owned for oil production since 2022, as part of a plan worth 8 billion euros ($9.4 billion), to shift its focus toward low-carbon businesses. Houston-based APA operates Block 53 and owns 45% of the company, while Petronas holds 30%.
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Copper prices set to rise on the back of a weaker dollar and tariff concerns
London and Shanghai copper were set to post weekly gains on Friday. This was largely due to a declining U.S. Dollar and the persistent concern over potential U.S. Tariffs on Copper Imports. As of 0718 GMT the London Metal Exchange (LME), three-month copper fell 0.11%, to $9,889 per ton, after earlier reaching $9,917 – its highest level since March 27. The week's increase was 2.71%. Shanghai Futures Exchange copper increased 1.5%, to 79.920 yuan (11,148.93 dollars), after hitting 80.060 yuan or its highest level since March 31. The copper price was up 2% over the past week. Copper prices are being driven higher by topics that everyone is interested in, such as a weaker US dollar, the continued flow of copper from the LME to the U.S. on the possibility of a U.S. import tariff on copper, and concerns about supply shortages elsewhere. The dollar fluctuated on Friday and hovered near its lowest levels in 3-1/2 year against the euro, sterling, and other currencies as traders bet on further U.S. interest rate cuts, while waiting for trade agreements ahead of President Donald Trump’s July tariff deadline. The greenback is less expensive to buyers of other currencies. The LME Cash Copper Contract Premium over the Three-Month Contract The price of copper on the Comex rose to $1.403 per ton or its highest level since April 25, indicating a tightening supply in the near term. LME lead dropped 0.32% to a ton of $2,032, tin was down 0.28% at $33,655, aluminum fell 0.14% to 2,580 and nickel fell 0.06% to $16,200. SHFE Zinc was up by 1.15% at 22,410 yuan. Aluminium gained 0.98% at 20,580 yuan. Tin rose 0.73% at 268,550 yuan. Lead fell 0.46%, to 17,125. Click or to see the latest news in metals, and other related stories.
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China's Iran Oil Imports Surge in June due to a rise in shipments and teapot demand
Analysts said that China's imports of Iranian oil surged in June, as shipments increased before the recent conflict and the demand from independent refineries improved. According to data from ship-tracking firm Vortexa's, the world's largest oil importer, and biggest buyer, of Iranian crude, imported more than 1.8 millions barrels per day between June 1-20. This is a new record. Kpler data puts the average month-to date of China's Iranian condensate and oil imports to 1.46 million barrels per day as of June 27. This is up from 1 million barrels per day in May. Kpler data revealed that the rise in imports is partly due to the increased discharge of large volumes of Iranian crude oil into the water. In May, exports from Iran had reached an all-time high of 1,83 million bpd. It usually takes about a month for Iranian crude oil to reach Chinese port. Analysts Kpler and Vortexa said that China's Iran imports will likely remain high, given the large volumes of cargoes loaded in May and early-June. Xu Muyu is Kpler's senior analysts. He said that independent Chinese "teapots" refineries, which are the main buyers for Iranian oil, showed a strong demand for discount barrels, as their stockpile depleted. She added that a possible relaxation of President Donald Trump’s policy regarding Iranian oil sanctions would further boost Chinese purchases. Trump said that Washington had not abandoned its maximum pressure campaign against Iran, including restrictions on Iranian crude oil sales. However, he indicated a possible easing of enforcement in order to assist the country's rebuilding. Two traders with knowledge of the matter reported that Iranian Light crude oil is being traded this week at a discount of around $2 a barrel below ICE Brent, for deliveries between late July and early August. This compares to a previous discount of $3.30 to $3.50 a barrel for July deliveries. The traders said that the tightening of discounts was prompted by fears of oil flow disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz - a vital waterway connecting Iran and Oman. The market fears of a chokepoint closure had risen after the U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear sites last weekend, but they have eased since Iran and Israel announced a ceasefire on Tuesday. The decline in futures prices coincides with a tightening of discounts on Iranian oil. ICE Brent crude oil futures were hovering at $68 a barrel on Friday. This was their level prior to the Israel-Iran war and down 19% since Monday's peak.
Dollar struggles due to Fed concerns; Asia shares reach three-year high
Asia shares reached their highest level in over three years on Friday, as they followed a Wall Street rally. However, the U.S. Dollar struggled due to concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence and the expectation of early rate cuts.
The stock indexes around the world are expected to close the week in a positive manner, as worries over tensions in the Middle East along with uncertainty about tariffs and trade agreements have been put on hold for the time being.
Early in the session MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan reached its highest level since Nov 2021, while the gauge for stocks around the world hit another record high.
The DAX and EUROSTOXX50 futures both rose more than 0.5% while the FTSE Futures were barely changed.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures both gained 0.1%.
The news that Washington and Beijing had reached an agreement on how to expedite the shipment of rare earths to the United States was one reason for the positive mood.
U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent said also on Thursday that after Washington reached an accord with the Group of Seven industrialized countries, he asked Republicans to remove Section 899 of their tax and spending bills.
When that provision was adopted by the House, it made some investors nervous, particularly foreign investors. If that provision is removed, it will ease one of the fears of foreign investors, said Khoon Gh, ANZ's head of Asia Research.
The positive developments that have been made in the market over the past few months are all contributing to this buoyant mood.
Nikkei, the Japanese stock exchange, rose 1.4% to surpass the 40,000-mark for the first five-month period.
Hong Kong stocks and mainland China's shares traded slightly lower. However, the CSI 300 was on course for a 2.6% weekly gain, the biggest since November 2024.
FED CUTS COMING
The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday that U.S. president Donald Trump was considering the possibility of announcing the replacement of Fed chair Jerome Powell by September or Oct.
The dollar was further weakened as traders worried about the erosion of Fed's independence, and began to price in additional rate cuts for this year.
The dollar was near its lowest level in three-and-a half years on Friday, and it was heading for a weekly loss of 1.4%. This would be the largest drop since over a month.
The greenback has already fallen more than 10% for the year. If it continues to fall in the coming days, this will be the biggest half-year drop since the beginning of the free-floating currency era in the early 1970s.
The euro, against a weaker US dollar, was at its highest level in more than three years. It stood at $1.1688. Last time, the pound bought $1.3725.
"Trump's wish to'shadow,' the Fed by using a designated successor for Chair Jay Powell, isn't a great way to promote perceptions of autonomy and integrity in U.S. Policymaking, and, by extension that of reserve currency status of U.S. Dollar," said Thierry Witzman, global FX rates and FX strategist at Macquarie Group.
The Fed's bets on a Fed cut have been strengthened by a series of U.S. data that were weaker than expected. Attention is now focused on the release of Friday's core PCE Price Index, the U.S. Central Bank's preferred inflation measure.
The yields on U.S. Treasury bonds were unchanged in Asia, after a previous session that saw them fall. The two-year yield was at 3.7418% while the benchmark 10-year rate was at 4.2573%.
Oil prices are set to decline by a week's end, as the ceasefire between Israel and Iran continues. This has eased concerns about Middle East supply.
Brent crude futures rose 0.58% to $68.12 per barrel, while U.S. Crude rose 0.6% at $65.63 a barrel on Friday. However, both are headed for a drop of more than 10% in the coming week.
Spot gold dropped 1% to $3.294.50 per ounce.
(source: Reuters)