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The Wall Street most at risk from lost trust is MORNING BID EUROPE

Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets.

The Nikkei has dropped 3% today and 9.6% this week. This is the largest drop since March 2020 when the pandemic began. Wall St futures began steady, but have since fallen around 0.7%. European stock futures have also dropped between 0.3% and 0.6%.

The dollar has lost 2.7% against the yen, 3.0% versus the Swissy and 2.4% versus the euro. The USD is not benefiting from tariffs.

Investors are not surprised by the sudden changes in U.S. foreign policy. If you wage a trade war without provocation on your allies or opponents, with no apparent goal other than to extract money and favours, you shouldn't be shocked when you don't make it onto their Christmas cards.

Analysts have noted that for decades, global investors have allocated 70 percent of their equity funds to U.S. shares, far above the 26% of global GDP that is accounted for by this economy. Money could flow in the opposite direction if this preferred status was lost, for example, by starting a trade war on a global scale.

The amount involved dwarfs any dollar boost from the U.S. purchasing fewer imports. It also squeezes foreign investors who have unhedged Wall Street positions - which is most of them.

What firm would be willing to risk its capital in order to encourage more investment in U.S. Manufacturing when the White House has the power and ability change the rules at any time?

The problem is exacerbated by the notion that the punishing tariffs are a bargaining tactic that can be moderated as long as countries pay Trump enough. It's fine to be unpredictable in game theory, but it is not acceptable when you are a company investing billions in a long-term investment.

Apple is a good example. Apple's supply chain is deeply embedded in Asia where tariffs range between 24% and 54%. If it were to move some manufacturing to the States - a huge ask - the iPhones that resulted would be priced at multiples of their current price.

Apple's large profit margins make it better equipped than others to absorb tariffs in the short term. But it is those margins, which are comparable to Kobe beef, that have pushed the stock price so high.

Spare a thought for Fed, which is caught between a nearly certain rise in consumer prices as well as the growing risk of recession due to the reductions made by consumers and business. Fed fund futures have risen 9 basis points today for December, which implies 99 basis points in cuts this year. This is a sure sign that the markets believe rising unemployment will overshadow (sorry!) the rise in inflation, and force the Fed into easing.

Bet Fed Chair Powell really looks forward to his speech about the economy that will be delivered later today.

The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Friday.

- EU construction PMI, German industrial orders, UK PMI

- Addresses of Fed Chair Powell and Governors Waller & Barr

US payrolls report - March

(source: Reuters)