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As Trump tariffs cause recession fears, US Treasuries rise as shares fall

The financial markets were gripped with recession fears on Friday as stocks continued a punishing selloff in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs. This helped drive a rally for U.S. Treasuries, and supported gold near its record high.

Wall Street stock prices have suffered their worst performance in 24 hours, since the COVID-19 Pandemic. Investors are struggling to catch their breathe.

After Trump announced Washington's most severe trade barriers in over 100 years on Wednesday, investors scrambled for safe havens such as government bonds, yen, and gold.

Investors' nerves have not been eased as the week comes to an end.

U.S. Stock Futures indicated further weakness. Nasdaq futures fell 0.7%, while S&P500 futures dropped 0.66%.

This came after S&P 500 Companies lost a total of $2.4 trillion overnight in stock market values, their largest one-day loss ever since the global coronavirus outbreak hit markets on March 16th, 2020. Other Wall Street Indexes also suffered sharp drops.

The futures of the FTSE and DAX also fell by 0.32%, 0.52% and 0.53% respectively.

Japan's Nikkei fell 3.4%, and was on track to lose almost 10% for the entire week. This is its worst performance since March 2019.

MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan dropped 0.5% on a thin market, as markets in China Hong Kong and Taiwan were closed for holidays. The index was expected to drop more than 2% in the coming week.

David Bahnsen is the chief investment officer of The Bahnsen Group. He said that if tariffs remain unchanged, a recession in Q2 or Q3 is possible as well as a bear market.

The question is whether President Trump wants to take these policies off the table if we experience a stock market bear market. We think Trump will pivot and focus on companies making significant investments in America, but it is unclear if that would change the market sentiment.

Investors have flooded into safe-haven bonds, causing yields on U.S. Treasury bonds to fall. Bond yields are inversely related to bond prices.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury rate hit a low of 3.970% six months ago, and the yield on two-year Treasury notes also reached its lowest level in October at 3.6200%.

In response to the increased fears of a global economic recession, especially in the United States of America, traders have bet on more Federal Reserve rate reductions this year. They believe that policymakers will have to ease up more aggressively in order to boost growth in the largest economy in the world.

Fed Funds Futures point to a reduction of over 100 basis points by December. This was closer to 70 basis points just before Trump announced his tariffs on Wednesday.

David Doyle, Macquarie Group's head of economics, said that central banks were not equipped to handle stagflation because the effects of lower growth and higher inflation push policy in opposite directions.

This means that a stronger core inflation will likely limit the extent of the Fed's policy response due to the headwinds for growth created."

Investors will be watching for Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Friday. They are interested in his assessment of the U.S. economic situation and the outlook on policy following Trump's latest tariff salvo.

The risk-sensitive Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar both fell more than 1% on the foreign exchange markets.

The dollar fell 0.3% to 145.68 yen after falling 2.2% the previous day, the steepest daily decline in over two years.

The euro gained 0.38%, to $1.10935, after a 1.9% increase on Thursday. Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc advanced 0.7%, to $0.8530, after also gaining 2.6% the previous session.

The dollar was near its six-month low of 101.67 against a basket.

The U.S. Dollar has been weakening this year due to the accumulation of long positions at the end of last year, as well as the renewed focus on U.S. economic growth risks which have accompanied the tariff talks for several weeks.

Spot gold, meanwhile, was nearing a record high of $3,096.37 per ounce, and on course for a fifth consecutive weekly gain as concerns about the impact Trump's tariffs would have on the global economic system boosted its appeal as a safe-haven metal.

The oil price, which is a proxy of economic activity, continued its steep fall from the previous session.

Brent futures dropped 0.93% to $74.49 per barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude futures declined 1% to $66.30 per barrel. Both are on course for their worst weeks in months

(source: Reuters)