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Turkish assets fall while U.S. Futures rise, European stocks remain steady

Turkish assets fall while U.S. Futures rise, European stocks remain steady

Investors awaited the Federal Reserve's rate decision, which was due later that day.

Turkish stocks, bonds, and the Turkish lira have all fallen, which has helped boost the U.S. Dollar as a safe-haven currency, following the arrest of President Tayyip Erdoan's principal political rival.

The pan-European STOXX 600 Index was flat last session after increasing for three previous sessions. This was boosted by Germany’s revamp of its debt regulations to spend much more on infrastructure and defence.

The DAX Index in Germany fell by 0.3% on Wednesday after reaching a new record high.

U.S. equity indexes fell on Tuesday, as investors worried about a possible slowdown in the growth. The S&P 500 fell by 1.1%, and the Nasdaq Index dropped 1.7%.

S&P futures contracts rose 0.3% on Wednesday, indicating a higher Wall Street opening.

The U.S. stock market has fallen this year due to uncertainty caused by President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

The European share market has performed much better thanks to the plans to increase defence spending to counter Trump's isolationist policies. Also, Germany's major fiscal changes and the hope of an end to war in Ukraine have all contributed to this improvement.

Tim Graf, State Street's head of EMEA Macro Strategy said: "There is still a continued notion of a U.S. slowdown in comparison to expectations."

"It's becoming clear that the growth is likely to get worse before getting better."

Investors also kept an eye on geopolitics after Israeli airstrikes Tuesday killed over 400 people in Gaza, and Russian president Vladimir Putin refused to endorse a 30-day ceasefire for Ukraine.

The dollar index rose 0.3%, to 103.61, after falling to a low of 103.19 for five months on Tuesday. Meanwhile the euro surged following the lower house of parliament's approval of a German spending bill. Analysts said that flows out of Turkey helped boost the U.S. dollar.

The dollar rose against yen following the Bank of Japan's decision to hold rates at the expected level. It was last up by 0.4%, closing at 149.83.

The Fed is the focus of traders' attention, who expect the Fed to hold rates between 4.25% and 4.50%. Investors are focusing on new economic forecasts in the face of tumbling stocks and signs that credit is tightening.

LSEG data revealed that the markets have priced in a Fed easing of almost 60 basis points this year, with the first reduction fully priced for July.

TURKISH SELL-OFF

The Turkish Lira fell in its largest daily drop since the country's currency crisis peaked in June 2023. It last traded around 38 dollars per lira, down about 4%.

Investors sold their Turkish assets on Wednesday after the authorities arrested Ekrem Imanoglu, Istanbul's mayor, for charges of corruption and aiding terrorist groups. The main opposition party called this arrest "a coup on our next president".

Analysts said that the arrest raised concerns about Turkey's economic reforms.

Nick Rees is the head of macro-research at Monex Europe. He said: "Traders were complacent and this spell has been broken. The dramatic results are that traders have repriced Turkey's political risks premia, which triggered today's sharp selloff in the lira."

Overnight, Asian stocks were unable to find direction. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 0.25% while China's CSI300 edged slightly higher.

(source: Reuters)