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China's tariff retaliation is aimed at its modest US energy imports

China is the largest energy importer in the world, but its purchases of US crude oil, LNG and coal are relatively modest. This reduces the impact of Beijing’s Tuesday move to impose retaliatory duties on the imports of U.S. natural gas, LNG, and coal.

China's Finance Ministry announced that, on February 10, it will impose tariffs of up to 15% on the importation of U.S. coal, LNG, and crude oil, as well as some autos and farm equipment.

Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration revealed that Chinese imports of U.S. Crude Oil fell 52% in the first eleven months of 2024 compared to the same period a previous year.

According to Chinese customs figures, U.S. crude imports made up 1.7% of China’s total imports in the year. This is down from 2.5% a decade ago.

Customs data revealed that China's LNG imports to the U.S. increased in 2018. The fuel is used for power generation, and the volume was nearly doubled from 2018's purchase. It accounted for 5.4% of China’s purchases.

Even with the tariffs, U.S. LNG imports via long-term contracts can be cheaper for Chinese buyers than spot prices Alex Siow, ICIS analyst, said that they will likely avoid buying U.S. spot cargoes.

He said that "Chinese firms will likely search for other sources of spot products, like those in Asia." It might not be that easy to locate, however, as the market for 2025 is still very tight.

A Beijing-based LNG dealer said that the tariffs would also affect Chinese importers who are looking for new long-term deals with America, particularly second-tier customers like utilities and city gas companies, which lack trading capability.

The U.S. ranks as the world's top LNG exporter, but China is its No.5 customer. It still has ambitions to increase LNG exports under Trump in the coming years, and China, which is the largest importer in the world, could be a customer for more.

MST Marquee analyst Saul Kavonic stated that the tariffs by China will increase U.S. LNG volumes in Europe, and benefit other producers like Australia.

The negative impact of these tariffs on U.S. LNG will only partially offset the strong desire from other buyers, under pressure from Trump, to rebalance their trade deficits.

CRUDE COSTS

FGE analyst Mia Geng stated that when China imposed 25% on U.S. Crude Oil during the Trade War in Trump's First Administration, China stopped purchasing 300,000 to 400,000 barrels of U.S. Crude and began buying alternatives, such as West Africa or Asian supply.

"We're still assessing it internally, but we expect to see a pause on purchases while lighter sweet alternatives are sought. She said that this impacts around 100,000 bpd from recent U.S. imports.

According to Sparta Commodities analyst June Goh, the tariffs will increase the cost of U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude in China compared with alternatives like Kazakhstan's CPC or Abu Dhabi's Murban grades.

Goh stated that the WTI price should not be affected by this as WTI is still able to flow into other regions.

Sinopec, the largest Chinese buyer of U.S. crude oil, is the biggest target for the tariffs.

He expects Chinese exporters to continue to request waivers from Beijing. Refiners will seek out alternative supplies, and may increase their shipments to the Middle East.

They spoke under condition of anonymity, as they weren't authorized to speak with the media.

Sinopec didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment about a Chinese public holiday.

Customs data revealed that China was not a major importer of coal from the United States. However, the value of the shipments of coal used in steelmaking rose by almost a third, to $1.84billion in 2024.

(source: Reuters)