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China's petroleum imports rebounded in November, but so did storage circulations: Russell

China's crude oil imports in November struck a 14month high, however much of the extra volume is likely to have ended up in storage as refinery processing stayed suppressed.

China, the world's most significant crude importer, had a surplus of about 1.77 million barrels daily (bpd) in November, according to estimations based upon official information.

This is the second-biggest regular monthly surplus this year and behind just the 1.85 million bpd in August.

The scale of the excess crude deteriorates any bullish interpretation of the rebound in November's oil imports.

China does not reveal the volumes of crude streaming into or out of strategic and commercial stockpiles, however a price quote can be made by deducting the quantity of crude processed from the overall of unrefined available from imports and domestic output.

China's refineries processed 58.51 million metric tons of crude in November, equivalent to about 14.24 million bpd, according to data launched on Monday by the National Bureau of Data.

This was up a tiny 0.2% from November in 2015, marking the first month in 7 that refinery throughput has risen from the very same month in 2023.

China imported 11.81 million bpd in November, the strongest month since August in 2015 and up 14.3% from November 2023.

Domestic output increased 0.2% in November from the year-earlier month to 4.20 million bpd.

Combining imports and domestic production offers a total of 16.01 million bpd of unrefined offered to refineries.

Deducting the volume processed of 14.21 million bpd leaves a surplus of 1.77 million bpd.

For the first 11 months of the year, China's surplus crude was about 1.12 million bpd, about 360,000 bpd more than what was saved over 2023 as a whole.

It's worth keeping in mind that not all of this surplus crude is likely to have actually been added to storage, with some being processed in plants not caught by the official data.

However even permitting spaces in the official data, it's most likely that China has been importing crude at a far greater rate than it requirements to fulfill its domestic fuel requirements.

LOWER RATES

The concern is why are China's refiners purchasing vastly more crude than they are processing?

It's quite clear that domestic fuel demand is not strengthening, and might have currently peaked when it concerns fuel given the surge in sales of electric vehicles.

Diesel need is also weaker, having actually been struck by the switch to trucks powered by liquefied natural gas.

It's more likely that China's refiners are stocking up on crude due to the fact that they deem current prices to be sensible and they are hedging against any rally next year.

Worldwide criteria Brent crude futures remained in a. drop at the time when November-arriving cargoes would have. been set up.

Brent went from a high of $87.95 a barrel on July 5 to a low. of $69.00 on Sept. 11, just around the time that a lot of. November's freights would have been organized.

Given that the September low Brent climbed to a peak of $81.16 a. barrel on Oct. 7, but if this rally did trigger China's refiners. to reduce back on purchases, this will just appear in cargoes. getting here in January.

However, since the October high, Brent has actually reduced back to. sell a fairly narrow variety anchored around $73 a barrel,. which is a level likely to be low enough to motivate continuous. buying interest by China's refiners.

The trick for the oil market is not to confuse higher. imports by China with a recovery in actual usage of fuels.

While more powerful imports will act to support crude costs, it. will take a sustained recovery in refinery processing to. encourage the market that China is as soon as again revealing strong oil. need development.

The views revealed here are those of the author, a columnist. .

(source: Reuters)