Latest News

China crude oil imports set for November rebound, but it's cost not demand: Russell

China's crude imports are on track to rebound in November to the highest in three months, but the increasing cravings of the world's biggest oil importer is more about cost than rising need.

Crude oil arrivals may reach around 11.4 million barrels per day (bpd) this month, the most because August and the third-highest month so far in 2024, according to vessel-tracking and port information assembled by commodity experts Kpler and LSEG Oil Research.

If the final result for November is in line with the projections, it will be the highest regular monthly imports since August's. main figure of 11.56 million bpd, and the third-strongest. month up until now this year.

Nevertheless, presuming the increase in unrefined imports is because. of a healing in need might be optimistic, offered China's. refinery throughput stays weak and financial indicators. continue to reveal the world's second-biggest economy is. struggling for growth momentum.

Most likely the boost in November imports is down to. price, with refiners benefiting from the weakening prices at. a time when cargoes arriving this month would have been. arranged.

International benchmark Brent crude futures dropped to. their lowest level for 33 months in early September, trading as. low as $68.68 a barrel on Sept. 10.

The rate had been trending lower given that early July, when it. reached as high as $87.95 a barrel amid rising stress in the. Middle East and the decision by the OPEC+ group of exporters to. defer an organized increase in production.

The lag between when cargoes are bought and physically. delivered to China ranges from about six weeks to three months,. depending on where the oil is sourced from.

This indicates that unrefined getting here in November was protected at a. time when oil rates were hitting the lowest levels in almost. three years.

China's refiners have in the previous shown that they will buy. more crude than they need when they deem rates to be low, and. cut back on imports when they see rates as having increased too. high, or acquired too rapidly.

This dynamic has actually been apparent in China's imports of crude. oil up until now in 2024, with arrivals decreasing by 420,000 bpd in. the very first 10 months of the year, with much of the weak point. coming after crude rates rallied highly in the 2nd. quarter.

Given that the September low crude rates have actually recovered. somewhat, reaching above $80 a barrel in early October before. settling into a range largely in between $70 and $75, ending at. $ 73.10 on Wednesday.

The consistent rates might suggest that Chinese refiners will be. delighted to purchase unrefined volumes enough to satisfy their requirements,. instead of purchase surplus oil to store for later processing.

However, the election of Donald Trump to a 2nd term as. U.S. president may modify the computations of Chinese purchasers,. especially those who acquire Iranian crude.

IRAN CONCERNS

Trump and members of his inbound administration have made. it clear that they intend to return to his hardline policy of. enforcing sanctions versus Iran due to the fact that of Tehran's nuclear. programme and its assistance of militants groups battling Israel.

Traders report that this is already leading to some Chinese. refiners, particularly independent processors, pulling back from. buying Iranian crude.

While total crude supply suffices to comfortably. manage any loss of Iranian barrels from the market, it is likely. to impact local rates.

If Chinese refiners turn to other Middle Eastern grades,. it's likely that rates in the region will increase relative to. other crudes.

Already there is some evidence to suggest this is happening,. with the Brent-Dubai exchange for swaps << DUB-EFS-1M >, which. tracks the premium of Brent crude over regional Middle East. marker Dubai, declining in recent weeks.

The premium for Brent over Dubai was $1.44 a barrel on. Wednesday, below the 2024 high of $2.98 on Aug. 30.

The views expressed here are those of the author, a writer. .

(source: Reuters)