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Minister: Romania and EU agree to extend the operation of coal-fired power plants
According to Romanian Energy minister Bogdan Ivan, the European Commission agreed to postpone the shutdown of five coal-fired units in Romania until 2026 or 2029. This will reduce the risk of blackouts this winter and increase electricity prices. For electricity production, the European Union uses a mixture of coal, gas, hydroelectric, nuclear, and renewable energies. Bucharest's government had pledged to phase out hard coal and lignite by 2026, as part of its European Union-funded Recovery Funds package. Five coal-fired plants generate 2.6 GW. Romania committed to closing 1,78 GW in December as part of its EU resilience funds package. Ivan, a reporter, said that coal-fired power stations will continue to operate. "Three units until the end of 2029, and two units until the end of August 2026." Ivan stated that the postponement of the project will allow Romania to replace coal-fired units with renewable and gas-powered generation. The state-owned lignite holding company CE Oltenia partnered with OMV Petrom and Tinmar to replace coal assets by building solar parks and gas-fired plants. However, the projects are expected to be completed much later than originally planned. Private developer MAS Group Holding has built a 1.7 GW gas and steam power plant in central Romania to replace the outdated hard coal generation. Ivan stated that Romania would have had to pay 1.8 billion Euros ($2.1 billion) if Brussels refused to accept the postponement. (1 euro = 0.8575 dollars) (Reporting and editing by Luiza Ili;
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Antofagasta's copper production is lower than expected
Antofagasta, a Chilean copper miner, reported a modest rise of 1% in the third quarter of production. It also said that it expected annual output to be at the lower range of its forecast of 660,000-700,000. Antofagasta has produced 161,800 tonnes of copper during the third quarter. This brings the year-to date production to 476 600 tons, which is a 2,8% increase over the same period in 2020. The company has four copper mines located in Chile. It is increasing production to meet the growing demand of the construction, power and green energy sectors. Due to the depreciation in the Chilean peso, the company has lowered its guidance on capital expenditures for the year from $3.9 billion to $3.6 billion. Citi analysts stated that "the capex guidance for 2020 is revised... and we see it as deferred spending for 2026." Antofagasta expects copper production in 2026 to range between 650,000-700,000 tonnes, with a higher output at Los Pelambres. Citi stated that "a low guidance (for 2026) at one of the most well-run mining operations will likely be another example (of) supply constraints for (the global) copper market." Copper prices reached $11,000 per ton in October, just a few cents away from their record high of $11,104.50 per ton set in May 2024.
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Angola to begin production of its first major copper mine next week
Angola’s first major copper mining project, Tetelo will begin production on October 29. This is part of Angola’s effort to diversify its economy into minerals that are clean and renewable. Shining Star Icarus is the owner of this $250 million mine, which is a partnership between China’s Shining Star International Group with Angola’s Sociedade Mineireira de Cobre de Angola. It is expected to produce 25, 000 metric tons per year of copper concentrate in its first two years. "I'm honored to announce the Tetelo Mine, which will be inaugurated in a few short days," Mines minister Diamantino azevedo said at a Luanda capital conference. He said, "This will be the beginning of production in the first underground mine that produces this important metal." Copper is essential for the transition to renewable energy, along with battery metals such as cobalt, nickel or lithium. Shining Star Icarus' deputy managing director Rui Lópes said that the first phase of the project will be a pit operation followed by underground mining in the second half 2026. Lopes said that the mine has an agreement with commodity trader Glencore. Ivanhoe Mines, Anglo American and other companies have copper exploration projects also in Angola.
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Gold prices rise on geopolitical concerns; US inflation data is being watched
Gold prices rose Thursday, as U.S. sanction against Russia and potential new export controls to China increased geopolitical risk. Investors also awaited key U.S. data on inflation later this week to get more clues about the path of interest rates. As of 0627 GMT, spot gold was up by 0.7% to $4,123.39 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery climbed 1.8%, to $4138.10 an ounce. The Trump administration is mulling over a plan that would curb an array of software-powered products exported to China ranging from laptops and jet engines to respond to Beijing's recent round of restrictions on rare earth exports. Trump also imposed sanctions against Russia related to the Ukraine for the first in his second term. These targeted oil companies Lukoil, and Rosneft. GoldSilver Central MD Brian Lan stated that "at this time, we are still bullish in the long term on gold but short-term investors must be careful because volatility is high." This week, the U.S. Consumer Price Index report (CPI), due on Friday following a delay caused by the government shutdown, will likely show that core inflation remained at 3.1% during September. Investors are almost certain that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points at its meeting next week. When interest rates are low, gold tends to increase in value as the cost of non-yielding metals is reduced. Mark Haefele said that UBS' Chief Investment Officer, Mark Haefele stated in a report, "We still view gold as a portfolio diversifier. Further gains towards our upside case of 4,700/oz are possible should adverse macro- and political developments arise." Gold prices are up 57% in the past year. They reached a record high of $4,381.21 Monday. This is due to geopolitical, economic and rate-cutting bets, as well as sustained central bank purchases. Silver spot rose by 1.2%, to $49.10 an ounce. Platinum fell 1.1%, to $1603,70, and palladium dropped 0.9%, to $1445.43. (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu sahu, Ronojoy Mazumdar and Brijesh patel in Bengaluru)
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Andy Home: Zinc ROI-LME turns wild when bears sleep-walk and squeeze into the squeeze:
London Metal Exchange's zinc contract is on a wild ride this week, with time-spreads reaching record levels in the face of depleted stock. Since several months the zinc market has been sleeping-walking to this storm, believing that the falling LME inventories were not a true representation of a growing market surplus. Metal has been leaking out of LME's warehouses. There are only 35,300 tons left, which is barely enough for a day's global consumption. The arrivals have been very low despite the increasing premium for cash deliveries. It's a painful squeeze for the bears who misjudged zinc's changing dynamics. SINGAPORE SLING Last year, there were 300.000 tons of zinc in LME storage warehouses. Most of them were in Singapore where the warehouse operators were in a fierce competition to earn storage revenues. Over the course of 2024, there was an enormous amount of metal movement as warehouse incentives were pushed and pulled. These deals often took the form of rental-sharing agreements with trade houses. Last year, almost 700,000 tonnes of zinc were moved into and out of Singapore's warehouses, but the inventory change was only a modest 35,550 tons. Nevertheless, something changed at the beginning of this year. Zinc left LME registered stock but did not appear in the shadows of off-warrant ready for renewal warranting at another warehouse. Singapore's trade statistics show that refined zinc exports are increasing to destinations such as Djibouti, in east Africa, and Guatemala, in central America. It's safe to assume that the LME stock has been sold around the globe, since the city has no zinc refineries or smelters. Smelters Power Down How is it that the rest of world is in short supply of a metal which is supposed to have a surplus of supply? The latest bi-annual statistical update of the International Lead and Zinc Study Group provides clues. Western smelters are closing or reducing production as the zinc demand is stagnant and mine supplies are booming after two years in contraction. ILZSG predicts that global metal production will rise by 2.7% in this year, but the main contributor to this increase is China. Its refined zinc production is expected to grow by 6.2%. It is clear that production outside China has fallen as smelters have reduced run rates, or in the case Toho Zinc’s Annaka smelter, located in Japan, and Glencore’s secondary zinc operations, located in Italy, completely closed. This year, the projected surplus supply is only 85,000 tons. It's all from China. SURPLUS TOMORROW - PAIN TODAY It's not surprising that London has a higher zinc price than the Shanghai Futures Exchange, given the regional disparity in supply. The most obvious solution to the disconnect between the Chinese market and the rest of the world is by importing Chinese products into LME warehouses. Unfortunately, physical arbitrage is a slow process and LME short positions holders need metal now. Why is there a cash premium on three-month metal? The price of steel has increased to more than $300 per ton. This is the most tight market since the LME Special High Grade Contract was launched in the late 1980s. The six dominant longs have cumulative cash positions of over three times the available stock. In the "tom next" spread, it is easy to see that there are tensions between short position holders. This week, the cost of rolling over a short position was as high as 30 dollars per ton. Stocks will continue to suffer until they are rebuilt in a meaningful manner. Surplus is on its way. ILZSG predicts a massive excess production of 271,000 tonnes in 2026. It's just not there. Or at least not where the holders of LME short positions need it. Andy Home is an author and columnist. Andy Home is a columnist.
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New York Times Business News - October 23,
These are the most popular stories from the New York Times' business pages. These stories have not been verified and we cannot vouch for the accuracy of these reports. Meta has announced that it will be cutting approximately 600 jobs from its artificial intelligence division in order to keep up with the competition in this fierce battle over technology. After a failed meeting between the two Russian leaders in Budapest, U.S. president Donald Trump announced he would impose significant new sanctions against Russia. This is the first time he has done so in his second term. It also highlights a new level of frustration towards Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Trump administration has taken a number of unconventional measures in order to ensure the supply of minerals that are essential for manufacturers of automobiles, jet engines and weaponry, while China is using its control over rare earth exports as a way to cripple global industries. General Motors has unveiled a new set of technology features, including an artificial intelligence assistant people can speak to while driving, a battery that is cheaper and self-driving programs that allow some drivers to put their eyes away from the road. (Compiled by Bengaluru Newsroom)
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Mongolia's top court blocks attempt to remove prime minister, deepening the political deadlock
Mongolia's highest court has ruled that a vote in parliament to remove the prime minister was unconstitutional. Analysts say this could lead to further turmoil as factions within the ruling party fight over the economy. Montsame, an official news agency, reported Thursday that the Constitutional Court ruled that a motion by the State Great Khural (or parliament) to remove Prime Minister Zandanshatar Gombojav last Friday was without legal basis. The court agreed with the President KhurelsukhUkhnaa who, on Monday, vetoed a resolution of the Parliament to dismiss Zandanshatar citing procedural errors, such as the use an "incorrect vote formula." Zandanshatar is expected to have the ability to fend of reformists in the Mongolian People's Party, led by Amarbayasgalan Dashzegve. This was said by Xu Tianchen a senior analyst with the Economist Intelligence Unit. Zandanshatar wants to implement a conservative economic policy in advance of the 2027 election, and is resisting calls for more anti-corruption policies and progressive taxes. Analysts say that the conflict could result in a policy impasse, which would be economically harmful. It would worsen the cost of living crisis, and delay efforts to diversify beyond mining. Government instability will also hinder long-term planning, and discourage foreign investment. Mongolian People's Party is also under pressure to respond to public discontent about allegations that officials of the government misappropriated funds and engaged in corruption. These concerns sparked massive street protests, including in the capital Ulaanbaatar. This led to the removal of Prime Minister L. Oyun Erdene by parliament four months ago. Xu said, "I'm worried that the turbulence could last until 2027 as the factional war within the Mongolian People's Party will continue." "President Khurelsukh tried to defend his country, but as his presidency nears its end, his influence will decrease," he said. "Amarbayasgalan will do everything to dominate the political scene." COAL-POWERED POLITICS Zandanshatar was dismissed by the Parliament after his government proposed a change in the calculation of mining royalties from international benchmark prices, to lower domestic prices. The plan would decrease government revenue, but increase profits for both domestic and foreign mining firms. This would limit the state's capacity to finance infrastructure and social welfare projects. Customs data shows that Mongolia exported 80 million tons worth $8.6 Billion in coal to China. This cements the commodity as Mongolia's number one export. Around 90% of the coal exported to China. The International Monetary Fund stated in September that falling coal prices and unpredictable Chinese coal demand, due to a slowing Chinese economy and Beijing's efforts at curbing coal overcapacity, were impacting Mongolia's prospects for growth. They urged officials to push structural reforms. Eric Olander is the co-founder of China-Global South Project. He said that China would not be affected by politics in the north, so long as the winner can guarantee mineral supplies and remains friendly to Beijing. Olander said that the increasing number of countries in the region where young people are protesting the erosion of social contracts between the government and the society may start to cause concern. "They do not want another country on its periphery becoming a variable," Olander stated, citing the uprisings of 'Gen-Z,' in Indonesia, Philippines, and Nepal as well as the instability along China's border with Myanmar and India. "Young people feel that their governments are screwing them over, which is a kind of populist reaction. Vietnam and China are not immune to this, even though their social contracts are stronger. Joe Cash, Liz Lee, and the Shanghai Newsroom contributed to this report. Editing was done by Muralikumar Anantharaman, Lincoln Feast and Muralikumar Anantharaman.
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Dollar firms focus on US inflation data as gold falls
Gold prices fell on Thursday as a result of a stronger dollar. Investors were awaiting the key U.S. data on inflation due later in the week to get hints on interest rate changes. As of 0502 GMT, spot gold was down by 0.1%, at $4,089.21 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery climbed 1% to $4104.70 an ounce. Gold is now more expensive to other currency holders due to the 0.2% rise in the dollar index. "We have seen a normal correction after the recent rally of gold, and there is still some downward pressure." GoldSilver Central MD Brian Lan stated that we expect the prices to continue their upward trend and consolidate afterward. "At the moment, we're still bullish on the gold market in the long term, but short-term investors need to be careful because volatility is high." After a delay caused by the government shutdown, Friday's U.S. Consumer Price Index report is expected to reveal that core inflation remained at 3.1% for September. Investors are almost certain that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points at its meeting next week. When interest rates are low, gold tends to increase in value as the cost of non-yielding metals is reduced. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that he was expecting to reach a deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping. He also stated that he will raise concerns regarding China's purchase of Russian oil at their next meeting in South Korea. The Trump administration is mulling over a plan that would curb an array of software-powered products exported to China. These include laptops, jet engines and even aircraft. This move is in response to Beijing's recent round of restrictions on rare earth exports. Trump has imposed sanctions against Russia related to the Ukraine for the first times in his second term. He targeted oil companies Lukoil, and Rosneft. Gold prices are up 56% in the past year. They reached a record high of $4,381.21 Monday. This is due to geopolitical, economic and rate-cutting bets, as well as sustained central bank purchases. Other metals, such as platinum and palladium, also fell. Palladium dropped 1.7%, while platinum rose 0.1%.
Middle East dispute keeps markets nervous ahead of China's reopening
International stocks started Tuesday on a careful note while oil costs stayed elevated as the escalating conflict in the Middle East sapped threat appetite ahead of China's highly expected resuming after a long holiday.
The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield held above 4% in early Asia trade, as a robust U.S. labour market prompted traders to greatly scale back their expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Hezbollah on Monday fired rockets at Israel's third-largest city, Haifa, and Israel looked poised to broaden its offensive into Lebanon, one year after the disastrous Hamas attack on Israel that sparked the Gaza war.
Heightened fears of a widespread dispute and interruptions to supply sent out Brent crude futures rising above $80 a. barrel for the very first time in over a month in the previous. session.
It was last 0.09% higher at $81.00 per barrel, while U.S. crude futures rose 0.14% to $77.25 a barrel.
The worldwide standard struck USD80/bbl as expectations grow. that Israel will target Iran's oil infrastructure in retaliation. for a rocket attack recently. President Biden's comments. didn't ease these fears, said experts at ANZ in a note.
We still think a direct attack on Iran's oil facilities is. the least most likely of Israel's retaliation alternatives.
Still, the dour mood kept stocks on tenterhooks on Tuesday.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan. fell 0.05%, while Tokyo's Nikkei opened. 0.79% lower.
S&P 500 futures added 0.03% while Nasdaq futures. lost 0.01%.
But the mindful relocations in stocks could alter once Chinese. markets resume after a week-long vacation later in the day. Gains. and volatility might be on the cards, given Singapore-traded. FTSE China A50 futures have rallied some 14% because. China's money markets closed on Sept. 30.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng China Enterprises index was up. 11% over the same period, pointing to a catch-up rally for the. mainland.
Before the break, China revealed its most aggressive. stimulus procedures considering that the pandemic, in a relocation which sent out the. CSI300 soaring 25% over five sessions and sparked a. rally throughout global share markets.
Focus will also be on an interview from the nation's. National Development and Reform Commission due at 0200 GMT, for. further details around the stimulus pledges that drove the. market craze.
Whether the result fulfills any expectations will identify. if the Hong Kong market can go up further, stated Richard Tang,. China strategist and Hong Kong head of research at Julius Baer.
Foreign investors had taken up their positions recently,. driving a strong rally. The second leg of the rally will likely. be driven by mainland Chinese purchases.
FED BETS
In the more comprehensive market, financiers were likewise considering the. future path of the Fed's easing cycle in the wake of Friday's. blockbuster U.S. jobs report.
Any possibility of another outsized 50-basis-point rate cut next. month has given that been erased and traders are even pricing in a. 14.6% opportunity that the Fed might keep rates on hold. Simply 50 bps. worth of cuts are priced in by December.
Reflecting the less aggressive Fed reducing expectations, the. two-year U.S. Treasury yield hovered near its highest. level in over a month on Tuesday and last stood at 3.9764%.
While confidence about another 50bp cut is justifiably. dampened ... the Fed rate cut cycle is far from hindered, stated. Vishnu Varathan, head of macro research for Asia ex-Japan at. Mizuho Bank.
Undoubtedly, the all-around hit tasks report is. sensible cause to reassess overzealous 'pivot bets' on. front-loaded, outsized cuts.
Still, the U.S. dollar stopped working to get a more lift on the. revised Fed expectations, having already had a strong run last. week also owing to safe-haven gains connected to the Middle East. dispute.
It was on the back foot in early Asia trade, falling 0.17%. against the Japanese yen to 147.97, while sterling. increased 0.03% to $1.3089.
Against a basket of currencies, the greenback reduced 0.02% to. 102.44, though it hovered near a seven-week high hit on Friday.
In other places, spot gold was little changed at $2,643.33. an ounce.
(source: Reuters)