Latest News

Middle East dispute keeps markets nervous ahead of China's reopening

International stocks started Tuesday on a careful note while oil costs stayed elevated as the escalating conflict in the Middle East sapped threat appetite ahead of China's highly expected resuming after a long holiday.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield held above 4% in early Asia trade, as a robust U.S. labour market prompted traders to greatly scale back their expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Hezbollah on Monday fired rockets at Israel's third-largest city, Haifa, and Israel looked poised to broaden its offensive into Lebanon, one year after the disastrous Hamas attack on Israel that sparked the Gaza war.

Heightened fears of a widespread dispute and interruptions to supply sent out Brent crude futures rising above $80 a. barrel for the very first time in over a month in the previous. session.

It was last 0.09% higher at $81.00 per barrel, while U.S. crude futures rose 0.14% to $77.25 a barrel.

The worldwide standard struck USD80/bbl as expectations grow. that Israel will target Iran's oil infrastructure in retaliation. for a rocket attack recently. President Biden's comments. didn't ease these fears, said experts at ANZ in a note.

We still think a direct attack on Iran's oil facilities is. the least most likely of Israel's retaliation alternatives.

Still, the dour mood kept stocks on tenterhooks on Tuesday.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan. fell 0.05%, while Tokyo's Nikkei opened. 0.79% lower.

S&P 500 futures added 0.03% while Nasdaq futures. lost 0.01%.

But the mindful relocations in stocks could alter once Chinese. markets resume after a week-long vacation later in the day. Gains. and volatility might be on the cards, given Singapore-traded. FTSE China A50 futures have rallied some 14% because. China's money markets closed on Sept. 30.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng China Enterprises index was up. 11% over the same period, pointing to a catch-up rally for the. mainland.

Before the break, China revealed its most aggressive. stimulus procedures considering that the pandemic, in a relocation which sent out the. CSI300 soaring 25% over five sessions and sparked a. rally throughout global share markets.

Focus will also be on an interview from the nation's. National Development and Reform Commission due at 0200 GMT, for. further details around the stimulus pledges that drove the. market craze.

Whether the result fulfills any expectations will identify. if the Hong Kong market can go up further, stated Richard Tang,. China strategist and Hong Kong head of research at Julius Baer.

Foreign investors had taken up their positions recently,. driving a strong rally. The second leg of the rally will likely. be driven by mainland Chinese purchases.

FED BETS

In the more comprehensive market, financiers were likewise considering the. future path of the Fed's easing cycle in the wake of Friday's. blockbuster U.S. jobs report.

Any possibility of another outsized 50-basis-point rate cut next. month has given that been erased and traders are even pricing in a. 14.6% opportunity that the Fed might keep rates on hold. Simply 50 bps. worth of cuts are priced in by December.

Reflecting the less aggressive Fed reducing expectations, the. two-year U.S. Treasury yield hovered near its highest. level in over a month on Tuesday and last stood at 3.9764%.

While confidence about another 50bp cut is justifiably. dampened ... the Fed rate cut cycle is far from hindered, stated. Vishnu Varathan, head of macro research for Asia ex-Japan at. Mizuho Bank.

Undoubtedly, the all-around hit tasks report is. sensible cause to reassess overzealous 'pivot bets' on. front-loaded, outsized cuts.

Still, the U.S. dollar stopped working to get a more lift on the. revised Fed expectations, having already had a strong run last. week also owing to safe-haven gains connected to the Middle East. dispute.

It was on the back foot in early Asia trade, falling 0.17%. against the Japanese yen to 147.97, while sterling. increased 0.03% to $1.3089.

Against a basket of currencies, the greenback reduced 0.02% to. 102.44, though it hovered near a seven-week high hit on Friday.

In other places, spot gold was little changed at $2,643.33. an ounce.

(source: Reuters)