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OPEC presents global oil outlook to 2050, sees no peak demand

OPEC raised its projections for world oil demand for the medium and long term in a yearly outlook, mentioning development led by India, Africa and the Middle East and a slower shift to electric automobiles and cleaner fuels.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, in its 2024 World Oil Outlook published on Tuesday, sees need growing for a longer duration than other forecasters like BP and the International Energy Company, which see oil use peaking this years.

A longer period of increasing consumption would be an increase for OPEC, whose 12 members depend on oil earnings. In support of its view, OPEC said it expected more push back on enthusiastic clean energy targets, and mentioned plans by several global carmakers to scale down electrification objectives.

There is no peak oil need on the horizon, OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais wrote in the foreword to the report being released in Brazil, a non-member of OPEC with which the group is seeking to form closer ties.

Over the previous year, there has been even more acknowledgment that the world can just phase in new energy sources at scale when they are really ready.

OPEC expects world oil need to reach 118.9 million barrels a day (bpd) by 2045, around 2.9 million bpd higher than anticipated in in 2015's report. The report presented its timeline to 2050 and expects demand to hit 120.1 million bpd by then.

That's far above other 2050 forecasts from the market. BP projects oil usage will peak in 2025 and decline to 75 million bpd in 2050. Exxon Mobil expects oil need to stay above 100 million bpd through 2050, comparable to today's level.

OPEC has been calling for more oil market financial investment and said the sector needs $17.4 trillion to be invested to 2050, compared to $14 trillion needed by 2045 estimated in 2015.

All policymakers and stakeholders need to interact to guarantee a long-term investment-friendly climate, Al Ghais composed.

HIGHER 2029 FORECAST THAN IEA

OPEC likewise raised its medium term demand forecasts, pointing out a. more powerful economic background than last year as inflation pressure. wanes and reserve banks begin to lower rates of interest.

World need in 2028 will reach 111 million bpd, OPEC said,. and 112.3 million bpd in 2029. The 2028 figure is up 800,000 bpd. from in 2015's prediction.

OPEC's 2029 projection is more than 6 million bpd greater than. that of the IEA, which stated in June need will plateau in 2029. at 105.6 million bpd. The gap is bigger than the combined output. of OPEC members Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.

In 2020, OPEC made a shift when the pandemic hit oil. need, stating intake would plateau in the late 2030s. It. has started raising projections again as oil usage has actually recuperated.

By 2050, there will be 2.9 billion automobiles on the road, up. 1.2 billion from 2023, OPEC forecast. Regardless of electrical car. development, automobiles powered by a combustion engine will account for. more than 70% of the global fleet in 2050, the report stated.

Electric automobiles are poised for a bigger market share, however. obstacles remain, such as electrical power grids, battery. producing capability and access to crucial minerals, it. said.

OPEC and its allies, referred to as OPEC+, are cutting supply to. support the marketplace. The report sees OPEC+'s share of the oil. market rising to 52% in 2050 from 49% in 2023 as U.S. output. peaks in 2030 and non-OPEC+ output does so in the early 2030s.

(source: Reuters)