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China's petroleum imports rebound, however it's rates, not intake: Russell

China's petroleum imports staged a rebound in August, increasing to the greatest in a year, but the increase is mostly due to previously lower prices instead of any recovery in consumption.

The world's most significant crude importer saw arrivals of 49.1 million metric lots in August, equivalent to 11.56 million barrels each day (bpd), according to customs information released on Sept. 10.

This was the greatest month-to-month overall considering that August last year, and also a strong gain on the 9.97 million bpd seen in July, which was the weakest monthly overall for nearly two years.

While the August imports look strong, it's worth noting that they are still down 7% from the very same month in 2023, and imports for the very first 8 months of this year are 3.1% below those for the very same period in 2015.

The concern for the market is whether August's rebound in imports is the start of a recovery in China's crude need, or is it most likely a reflection of the lower oil prices that prevailed when August-arriving cargoes would have been set up.

The purchasing pattern of China's refiners is that they tend to increase imports when they deem prices to be at a competitive level, and alternatively they draw back when they think prices have actually increased expensive, or too rapidly.

Cargoes that arrived in August were most likely organized in May and June, a time when worldwide crude rates were trending lower.

International standard Brent futures reached their highest level so far this year of $92.18 a barrel on April 12, previously starting a sag to a low of $75.05 on Aug. 5.

This means that China's refiners would likely have actually been encouraged to purchase more crude throughout this window, implying August and September imports may be relatively strong relatively to the earlier months this year.

However, Brent crude staged a little rally after the Aug. 5 low, reaching a high of $82.40 a barrel on Aug. 12, and then staying in a relatively narrow range either side of $80 till the end of the month.

Ever since, worldwide demand concerns, especially in China, have actually seen Brent fall sharply to $68.68 a barrel throughout trade on Sept. 10, the lowest level since Dec. 21.

IMPORT BOOST COMING?

The current weak point in worldwide crude rates suggest that China's refiners might improve imports, and if they are buying freights now, this boost will appear in arrivals in November, December and even into January.

It's also the case that China's refiners more than happy to construct inventories when rates are low, and even dip into these stockpiles when costs rise.

China does not disclose the volumes of crude flowing into or out of strategic and industrial stockpiles, however an estimate can be made by deducting the amount of unrefined processed from the total of crude readily available from imports and domestic output.

Using this approach, China included about 800,000 bpd to stocks in the first seven months of the year, and it will not. be a surprise if this rate accelerated in August, offered the. strong imports and the likely continuous softness in refinery. processing rates.

There is maybe a minor irony in the possibility that. China purchases more oil because the rate has dropped, simply as the. Company of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) trims. its need forecast for the world's second-biggest economy.

OPEC's most current report, launched on Sept. 10, cut its projection. for China's need growth for a second straight month, to. 650,000 bpd for 2024 from 700,000 bpd the previous month, and. 760,000 bpd the month before that.

Even the revised forecast is likely still too optimistic,. offered China's petroleum imports for the very first eight months of. 2024 are 10.98 million bpd, some 390,000 bpd below the 11.37. million bpd from the exact same duration in 2023.

For OPEC's projection to be understood China's unrefined imports. would need to rise in the 4th quarter, and while the present. weak costs may well see them increase, it would be a major. surprise if they rose by the volumes required to meet the OPEC. price quote.

The viewpoints revealed here are those of the author, a writer. .

(source: Reuters)