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EUROPE GAS - Prices down on warmer weather and eyes on Trump tariff plan
The Dutch and British gas price fell on Wednesday morning, as the warmer weather forecasts reduced demand. Meanwhile, the market closely monitors Trump's "Liberation Day tariff plan". LSEG data shows that the Dutch front-month contract fell by 0.54 euros to 42.13 Euro per megawatt hour or $13.34/mmBtu at 0811 GMT. The Dutch day-ahead contracts was down by 0.72 euros at 41.95 Euro/MWh. The British day-ahead contracts was down 0.85 cents at 101.75p/therm. On Wednesday, U.S. president Donald Trump was ready to impose tariffs on all global trading partners. He would likely increase costs and invite retaliation. "Today's market could be volatile, with fundamentals being ignored. Liberation Day concerns could fuel concerns on global markets. Trumps decisions may have a negative impact on the global trade," said LSEG Analyst Wayne Bryan. In Northwest Europe, the forecast for heating demand is lower with an increase in temperatures. LSEG data shows that demand for the next day is down 441 gigawatt hours per day (GWh/d) and for weekends and working days in the coming week, it's down 45GWh/d. After a long and cold winter, Europe is now in the season of gas refilling. Gas storage sites are currently nearly two thirds empty. This is the first time that storage has to be refilled without pipeline gas passing through Ukraine. In a recent research note, Global Risk Management stated that the risk of refilling was at its highest ever level. The first planned major maintenance in Norway this summer will begin today at Nyhamna Gas Processing Plant and run until 7th April. The analysts of Engie EnergyScan wrote in an early morning note that, "Even if Gassco says the summer maintenance schedule will be lighter than in the previous two years, the drop in Norwegian gas flows won't improve the EU's storage situation." The benchmark carbon contract in Europe was 0.01 euros higher at 67.99 euro per metric ton. (Reporting by Marwa Rashed; Editing by Susanna Twdale)
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MUFG names its first sustainability director for EMEA
The bank announced on Wednesday that MUFG, a Japanese bank, has appointed its first Chief Sustainability Officer for Europe, Middle East and Africa to help its clients become more sustainable. Stephen Jennings is a veteran energy and renewables financier with 24 years of experience. He will now be the chief sustainability officer for EMEA in addition to his existing roles as head of EMEA energy structured finance and head of EMEA sustainable business division. The appointment comes just weeks after MUFG resigned from a UN Climate Alliance that helped banks develop policies to reduce their carbon footprint. In recent months, the Net Zero Banking Alliance saw a mass exodus and is now consulting on rules to try to retain its members. A spokesperson from MUFG stated that the bank's commitment to a future of net zero remains unchanged despite its decision. The spokesperson stated that "we aim to contribute towards real-economy carbonisation by providing advice and capital to our clients to help them transition their business models while ensuring the security and stability of the energy supply." Hideaki Takase, group chief strategy officer and sustainability officer, will continue to oversee MUFG’s climate policy. This includes a goal of being carbon neutral by 2050. Jennings is responsible for the development and implementation of MUFG EMEA’s sustainability strategy. He will also help finance clients and provide advice on their energy-transition strategies. He will chair the bank's Sustainability Committee and coordinate with MUFG. The statement stated that Cathryn Kelly will be appointed deputy chief sustainability officer EMEA. She is currently the head of the credit strategy group at the bank. MUFG Group aims to provide 100 trillion yen (668 billion dollars) in sustainable finance by 2030. ($1 = 149.6200yen) (Reporting and editing by Virginia Furness, Leslie Adler, Joe Bavier).
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SSE cuts annual earnings forecast but expects renewables to grow in UK
SSE, a British network operator and power generator, lowered its guidance on earnings per share for the year but kept its long-term profits expectations. It now expects to earn between 155 pence and 160 pence in the fiscal year 2025, compared to its previous guidance of 163 pence to 154 pence. SSE will benefit from Britain's aim to decarbonise the electricity sector by 2030, with a rapid expansion of renewable energy sources, like wind and solar. Major investments in grid connection are also planned. The company plans to invest approximately 3 billion pounds ($3.87billion) this year under its Net Zero Accumulation Programme (NZAP Plus) plan. SSE's renewables production grew by 9.8% in fiscal year 2024 compared to the previous year. SSE anticipates that renewables production will have increased by 17% for the year ending March 31, boosted in part by a capacity increase. This is despite the cold spells and stormy conditions in Britain which have disrupted SSE's distribution network over recent months. SSE, who last week promoted their chief commercial officer to chief executive, has reaffirmed that they will aim to earn between 175 and 200 pences per share in the fiscal year ending on March 31, 2027. $1 = 0.7748 pounds (Reporting and editing by Mrigank Dahniwala, Joe Bavier).
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Junta-ruled Guinea to hold referendum in September as possible step towards democracy
According to a state-television announcement on Tuesday, the military leader of Guinea has set a date for a referendum on constitutional reforms on September 21, 2025. This could be a first step in returning to constitutional democracy. Mamady Doumbouya, who seized power through a coup on September 20, 2021, proposed in 2022 a two-year period of transition before elections. However, he did not organise any vote. Guinea is a producer of bauxite, iron ore, and other minerals. West African countries Where the military has taken control and stopped a return to civil rule. The military authorities set a deadline of December 31, 2024 for the return to civilian governance. The junta may have presented a draft for a new constitution in July 2024, which could allow Doumbouya the opportunity to take part in the next presidential elections. Authorities said that a referendum would precede any elections and the return to constitutional rule. Guinea's former two ruling parties have been suspended. The Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea, another major opposition group, has also been put under surveillance. Saliou Samba, Portia Crowe, and Ros Russell edited the report.
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Dealers say that India's palm oil imports in March rose but remained below normal levels.
Five dealers report that India's imports of palm oil in March were up from the previous months, but they remained below the normal level for the fourth month running. The premium it commands over soyoil has prompted refiners and buyers to increase their soyoil purchases. India's lower-than-normal imports of palm oil, the world’s largest buyer of vegetable oil, could put pressure on Malaysian palm prices and support U.S. soybean oil futures. According to estimates by dealers, palm oil imports rose 13.2% in March to 423,000 metric tonnes. Dealers had anticipated that imports would exceed 500,000 tons in March. The Solvent Extractors' Association of India said that India imported more than 750,000 tonnes of palm oil per month on average during the marketing period ending in October 2024. It will publish its March import figures by mid-April. "Palm Oil has been more costly than soyoil in the last few months and it is reducing core demand," Rajesh Patel said, a managing partner of GGN Research, a trader of edible oils. Dealers reported that soyoil imports in march increased by 24%, to 352,000 tons, month-on-month. Meanwhile, sunflower oil imports dropped 15.5%, to 193,000 tons, the lowest since six months. Dealers estimate that the increase in palm oil and soybean oil shipments boosted the country's edible oil imports to 968, 000 tons. This represents a 9.3% rise from the previous month when imports fell to a 4-year low. "Palm Oil has held a premium to soyoil even for shipments during April and May." Sandeep Bajoria is the CEO of Sunvin Group and a vegetable oil broker. He said that palm oil imports will be below 500,000 tonnes in April. Bajoria stated that imports are expected to increase from May, and a significant rise is anticipated in July, when palm oil will be competitive with soyoil. India imports mainly palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia. It also imports sunflower oil and soyoil from Argentina, Brazil and Ukraine.
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MUFG names its first sustainability director for EMEA
The bank announced on Wednesday that MUFG, a Japanese bank, has appointed its first Chief Sustainability Officer for Europe, Middle East and Africa to help clients become more sustainable. Stephen Jennings is a veteran energy and renewables financier with 24 years of experience. He will now be the chief sustainability officer for EMEA in addition to his existing roles as head of EMEA energy structured finance and head of EMEA sustainable business division. The appointment comes just weeks after MUFG resigned from a UN Climate Alliance that helped banks develop policies to reduce their carbon footprint. In recent months, the Net Zero Banking Alliance saw a mass exodus and is now consulting Changes in the way we think about change To retain its members, the organization has made changes to its rules. Hideaki Takase, group chief strategy officer and sustainability officer, will continue to oversee MUFG’s climate policy. This includes a goal of being carbon neutral by the year 2050. Jennings is responsible for the development and implementation of MUFG EMEA’s sustainability strategy. He will also help finance clients’ energy transition strategies and provide advice to them. He will chair the bank's Sustainability Committee and coordinate with the MUFG group. The statement stated that Cathryn Kelly will be appointed deputy chief sustainability officer EMEA. She is currently the head of the credit strategy group at the bank. MUFG Group aims to provide 100 trillion yen in sustainable finance by 2030.
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Stocks tread carefully as Trump's tariff plans approach
Asian stocks sank on Wednesday as investors worried about escalating global trade tensions and awaited the details of U.S. president Donald Trump's proposed tariffs. In recent weeks, investors have been focused on a new round of reciprocal taxes that Trump is expected to announce at 2000 GMT on Wednesday. Trump has already imposed duties on autos, aluminium and steel, as well as increased duties on all Chinese goods. This has rattled the markets, with fears growing that a full-blown global trade war may trigger a sharp economic slowdown. European futures showed a subdued opening, with STOXX Futures down 0.27% while Germany's DAX Futures were 0.24% lower. After a turbulent session in the United States, Asian stocks were unable to find direction. Japan's Nikkei index was up by 0.25% at the end of the session after it had hit its lowest level since early September. South Korea's benchmark stock index fell 0.6%. Wall Street's benchmark S&P and Nasdaq both ended the session higher, after earlier losing ground. The Dow ended a little lower. Ben Bennett, Asia-Pacific Investment Strategist at Legal & General Investment Management said: "Nervousness has become the dominant emotion right now." Investors hope for clarity and the beginning of a deal-making phase. Tariffs are already impacting business sentiment and will likely lead to a drop in global economic activity over the next few months. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was barely changed, but China's blue chip index rose 0.14%. Vasu Menon is the managing director for investment strategy at OCBC. He said: "Trump called April 2, 'Liberation Day,' but it's unlikely that investors will be truly liberated from tariff uncertainty." This possibility will likely continue to make investors nervous. SOFT DATA Investors are becoming increasingly concerned by signs such as rising prices, a slowing economy and cracks on the labour market. The data showed that U.S. manufacturing shrank in March, after two months of growth. A measure of inflation in the factory gates jumped to its highest level in almost three years due to rising concern over tariffs on imported products. The Labour Department reported on Tuesday that U.S. employment opportunities fell by 194,000 in February to 7.568 millions as tariff uncertainty dampened labour demand. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury bill in the United States was 4.197% during Asian hours, having fallen to 4.133% Tuesday. This is its lowest level since February 4. Currency markets were quiet, with most pairs trading within tight ranges. The euro remained at $1.0792 while the sterling traded at $1.29175. The yen was slightly weaker, at 149.92 dollars per yen. George Boubouras is the head of research for K2 Asset Management. He says that investors should look past the noise to gauge the landscape of the second half 2025 "when the US will launch their next phase policies, which will include tax cuts and deregulation." But the focus will be on tariff details. This is especially true after a report in the media said that Trump's advisers were considering a plan to raise duties by around 20% on products from almost every country rather than target certain countries or specific products. "We are now in the midst of Trump's time to shine, with many already having deleveraged their positions to be as neutral or flat as possible on equity, USD (dollar), and Treasuries." Chris Weston is the head of research for Pepperstone. Gold, which is seen as a safe haven against economic and political turmoil, was well-priced at $3,116.96 an ounce. This price, while up by 0.2%, was still just below the record set in the previous session. Gold is up 19% this year. This follows a gain of 27% in 2024, which was the best performance it had in over a decade. As traders waited for tariff news, oil prices remained steady. Brent futures were barely changed at $74.45 per barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude futures were $71.21 a barrel.
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London copper prices rise; caution before US reciprocal tariffs cap gains
The copper price in London increased on Wednesday. However, gains were limited as investors awaited the details of reciprocal duties from U.S. president Donald Trump. As of 0336 GMT, the benchmark three-month price for copper at the London Metal Exchange rose by 0.5%, to $9,736 a metric ton. Trump announced on Sunday that his reciprocal tariffs would apply to all countries. He will announce the tariffs at 20:00 GMT. A base metals trader stated that "we sense a risk off sentiment because of the looming uncertainty ahead of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs announcement later today." Caixin/S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, released on Tuesday, rose to 51.2 from 50.8 in Feburary, indicating growth in manufacturing in spite of potential threats from an escalating U.S. Trade War. Tin on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has outperformed the base metals markets, increasing 4.3% to 298660 yuan (40404.17 USD) because of fears about supply disruptions following an earthquake that occurred in tin rich Myanmar last Friday. In a recent note, Chaos Research stated that the earthquake had affected the market's expectations of the resumption tin-mining in the country. If the mining area collapsed it is likely that there will not be a return to Wa State in this year. Wa State in Myanmar had previously considered allowing mining in the tin rich region to resume. Myanmar is the third largest tin producer in the world and the dominant supplier of tin to China. Other metals include LME aluminium, which fell 0.2%, to $2.501 per ton. Lead rose 0.2%, to $1.996, Zinc added 0.1%, to $2.825, Tin gained 1.9%, to $38,205, and Nickel was flat, at $16,110 per ton. Lead fell 0.2% to 17.325 yuan and SHFE copper increased 0.3%. Nickel rose 0.7% at 129,530.
Worldwide equities edge down with economy in focus; oil steadies
MSCI's international equities index edged down on Thursday as investors anxiously examined combined economic data while they waited on Friday's. vital jobs report and oil costs held near 14month lows as. need worries offset draws on stocks.
U.S. Treasury yields fell and two-year yields reached a. 15-month low after ADP's private sector August jobs data revealed. less new jobs than prepared for.
Thursday's information revealed U.S. private companies hired the. fewest workers in 3-1/2 years in August while the July number. was modified lower, possibly meaning a sharp labor market. slowdown.
The weak information did little to calm investor jitters as they. waited on Friday's U.S. non-farm payroll report for August,. which is anticipated to clarify how fast the U.S. Federal Reserve. will cut rates of interest at its September conference. Economic experts are. anticipating 160,000 brand-new tasks for August up from 114,000 in July.
While bets have increased to 41% from 34% a week ago that. the Fed may kick-off its long-awaited relieving cycle with a half. percentage point move this month, traders still see an approximately. 59% possibility that the cut will simply be a quarter of a. percentage point according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.
On Tuesday, Wall Street indexes suffered their biggest daily. losses in nearly a month as investor stress and anxiety about the U.S. economy magnified.
Tuesday's decline did some damage to the psyche of the. bulk of the bulls and kept individuals a little more worried. yesterday and today, stated Michael James, handling director of. equity trading at Wedbush Securities in Los Angeles.
Today's data was similarly softer making it more. likely we're going to have a meaningful move in the market on. the tasks report tomorrow early morning, said James, noting that. increased stress and anxiety levels will cause more cutting of. positions than adding to positions.
Still, Thursday's information likewise showed consistent U.S. services. sector activity in August with the Institute for Supply. Management's non-manufacturing getting supervisors index at 51.5. last month compared to 51.4 in July.
But while the services information appeared to motivate traders. previously in the U.S. trading session, stock indexes lost steam as. investors turned their focus to Friday's data.
On Wall Street, at 03:01 p.m. the Dow Jones Industrial. Average fell 186.52 points, or 0.46%, to 40,789.95, the. S&P 500 lost 13.07 points, or 0.24%, to 5,506.95 and the. Nasdaq Composite got 50.34 points, or 0.29%, to. 17,134.64. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe fell. 1.38 points, or 0.17%, to 813.67 while earlier in the day,. Europe's STOXX 600 index closed down 0.54%.
In currencies, trading was choppy as investors evaluated the. consistent services information versus the weak tasks number as they looked. for ideas on the course for rate of interest.
The services numbers alleviated some angst about the. strength of the economy, said Adam Button, chief currency. analyst, at Forexlive in Toronto. There are no indications of a tough. landing in any of the numbers. The marketplace is hanging on every. information point right now.
The dollar index, which determines the greenback. against a basket of currencies consisting of the yen and the euro,. fell 0.16% to 101.10.
The euro was up 0.2% at $1.1104 while against the. Japanese yen, the dollar weakened 0.22% to 143.42.
In Treasuries, the yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes. fell 3.9 basis indicate 3.729%, from 3.768% late on. Wednesday while the 30-year bond yield fell 4.6. basis points to 4.0207%.
The 2-year note yield, which generally moves. in action with interest rate expectations, fell 2 basis points to. 3.7497%, from 3.77% late on Wednesday.
And a closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield. curve measuring the space in between yields on 2- and 10-year. Treasury notes, seen as an indicator of financial. expectations, was at an unfavorable 2.3 basis points.
In energy markets, oil ended the session barely changed as. stress over demand in the U.S. and China and a most likely rise in. supplies out of Libya balanced out a big, bullish withdrawal from U.S. stocks and a hold-up to output increases by OPEC+ manufacturers.
U.S. unrefined calmed down 0.07% or 5 cents at $69.15 a. barrel while Brent closed at $72.69 per barrel, down 1. cent on the day.
Gold costs acquired as the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields. fell as signs the labor market was losing steam led financiers to. think about a super-sized rate cut from the Fed.
Spot gold included 0.85% to $2,515.38 an ounce. U.S. gold futures acquired 0.57% to $2,507.60 an ounce.
(source: Reuters)