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Expiration of US oil license to Venezuela to enforce a ceiling on output development

The expiration of the best U.S. license so far given to Venezuela's oil and gas industry will put a ceiling on the South American country's. slow crude production growth unless Washington grants enough. individual authorizations to compensate, according to experts. and specialists.

Washington authorities said on Wednesday the license would not. be renewed. A 45-day license was issued by the U.S. Treasury. Department for energy firms to wind down transactions with. Venezuela. Companies likewise are welcome to submit requests for. specific permissions.

The move follows weak progress by President Nicolas Maduro. and his agents to implement a roadmap towards a. competitive election in Venezuela this year, the U.S. said,. revealing concern over repression in Venezuela and the impossibility. for the opposition to register its chosen candidate.

Oil Minister Pedro Tellechea said on Wednesday state energy. business PDVSA has a huge strength in trading for overcoming any. situation. We are ready commercially (to any sanction. reimposition). Logistically, we will continue producing.

GROWTH CUT SHORT

The license had actually permitted Venezuela's state oil business PDVSA. in the last six months to recuperate a part of its lost crude. output, reaching 874,000 barrels daily (bpd) in March, and. expand production capacity by adding 2 drilling rigs at the. country's primary producing area, the Orinoco Belt.

Also helped by specific authorizations to U.S and European. oil firms, Venezuela expanded exports to pre-pandemic levels of. around 900,000 bpd, improved cash flow and safe imports of. diluents for crude production and fuels to avoid another wave of. domestic shortage.

Individual licenses are expected to stay in force and new. ones for particular deals might be provided, the U.S. said,. but without the widest permission a planned 35% development in oil. production to 1.2 million bpd through the end of 2025 is now. anticipated to be much shorter.

Oil output will lose force, stated Caracas-based consultancy. Sintesis Financiera in a report this week, describing a. situation without a large license allowing exports of Venezuela's. oil to its chosen customers, which will cut short the production. growth to about 980,000 bpd by the end of next year.

WEAKER FINANCES

Experts likewise anticipate that lower profits coming from the. mix of stagnant oil sales, the return of cost discount rates. and the requirement for intermediaries will compromise PDVSA's finances and. the reserve bank's capability to prevent further decline, leading. to sped up inflation.

They noted, nevertheless, that individual licenses to the oil. sector can supply some relief in the coming months.

A large list of oil and gas companies have in recent years. asked for specific licenses from the U.S. Treasury Department to. work with Venezuela, consisting of for trans-bordering gas. tasks, oil location expansions and investments that could ramp up. income. However most of them stay unattended.

Venezuela's possible re-approach to political allies Iran. and Russia, especially for oil trading and shipping, might also. assist it alleviate the impact of reimposing the U.S. sanctions, first. enforced in 2019, experts have stated.

But the most catastrophic collapse of PDVSA's operations. and financial resources began years before the U.S. first enforced sanctions. in Venezuela, kept in mind Francisco Monaldi, director of the Latin. American Energy Program of Rice University's Baker Institute.

Any healing is not anticipated to be quick and in the middle of however. sanctions the effort will be even harder, the experts said.