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UAE: Oil markets absorb more barrels, but stocks are not rising
Suhail al Mazrouei, United Arab Emirates Energy Minister, said that oil markets were absorbing OPEC+ increases in production without building up inventories. This means they were thirsty for even more oil. OPEC+ has cut production to support the oil market for many years. It reversed its course in order to gain market share, and after U.S. president Donald Trump asked the group to pump more oil to keep gasoline prices low. OPEC+ started to reverse its 2.17 million barrels a day cut in April, with a 138,000 bpd increase. In May, June and Juli each month saw increases of 411,000 barrels per day. The group approved on Saturday a 548,000-bpd increase for August. Mazrouei stated that he is not concerned about the supply overhang, even after recent production increases. He said: "You can see, even though we've seen increases in the past few months, there hasn't been a significant buildup of inventories. This means that the market required those barrels." You cannot look at price alone and be shortsighted. "Investments can only happen if the price is right," he said. He added that even countries with large oil reserves do not invest enough. Reporting by Ahmad Ghaddar. Dmitry Zhdannikov wrote the article. Emelia Sithole Matarise, Mark Potter and Emelia Sithole Matarise edited the book.
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Saudi chemical group SABIC studies IPO of its Gas Unit
Saudi chemicals group SABIC announced on Wednesday that it is evaluating strategic options, including an IPO, for its National Industrial Gases Company. This comes amid a review of the company's business. SABIC stated in a press release that the move is in line with the company's portfolio optimization strategy and its core business focus. It added that an IPO for GAS will be aimed at improving "the group's financial position and value added to shareholders". Chemicals industry is struggling with low demand and high input cost, which has led to lower prices and squeezed profit margins. SABIC is one of the largest petrochemicals firms in the world and 70% owned by Saudi Aramco. In May, it reported a net loss for its first quarter of $323,000,000, citing an increase in operating costs as well as high feedstock prices. It also announced earlier this year that it would cut costs, find new investment options and restructure some core assets while offloading noncore businesses. The company has already sold its stakes to state-owned Saudi entities in Aluminum Bahrain (Alba), and Hadeed Steel. SABIC announced on Wednesday that the study "remains ongoing" and that each option is subject to financial, technical, regulatory, and economic assessments. According to LSEG, its shares have dropped 16.3% since the start of the year.
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QUOTES-Markets react after Trump announces 50% copper tariff
U.S. president Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that he would announce 50% tariffs on copper imports. This sent U.S. Comex Copper Futures to a record-high of more than 12%. The announcement marked the end of a long-running arbitrage that had drew metal from the global markets. Prices fell on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and London Metal Exchange. Here is the reaction of analysts and smelters from Asia. GOLDMAN SACHES HAS ANALYSTS As with previous tariffs this higher initial rate of tariff could be used to negotiate, then concessions or exemptions can follow. We expect an increase in shipments to the U.S. over the next few weeks due to the increased incentive for companies to get ahead of the tariff implementation. We maintain our Dec-25 LME Copper Price Forecast at $9,700. However, we now see a lower risk of the price rising above $10,000 in the 3Q. ANALYSTS AT CITI Our base case now is a headline Section 232 Copper Import Levy of 50%. We adjust our expectations that the COMEX/LME arb will be priced at 25-35% LME, or $2,300 - $3300/t compared to 15-20% previously. The drawdown of excess copper based in the United States could completely replace the imports of refined copper from the United States for the rest of 2025. ZHAO YONGCHENG ANALYST BENCHMARK MINERAL INTELLIGENCE The SHFE copper prices are under pressure at the moment, but will rebound once the U.S. tariffs on copper are finalized. Fundamentals remain tight in the near-term. The widening differential in price between COMEX & LME will encourage trading arbitrage, preventing the price from dropping more. Overall, the downside risk is higher in near-term." MATT HUANG ANALYST, BRANDS FINANCIAL "In the short term, the spot metal market will get a boost: Deliverable metals from South America are in high demand, driving premiums up. "Chinese holders of physical copper will still be able to rush shipments into the U.S. but the arrivals following them are likely to sit on the sidelines and let premiums slide back." Once the tariff is in place, the 'vacuum of demand' from the U.S. will diminish, and the outlook for LME/SHFE will turn negative. MARCUS GARVEY HEAD OF COMMODITIES STRATEGY MACQUARIE The loss of an arbitrageable physical price difference between CME-LME copper will result in a fall in U.S. import demand from the current 200kt/mth to something closer 30kt/mth. This should continue for several months, as excess inventories are reduced in the U.S. The CME-LME spread would not be required to incentivise marginal spot flows because of the surplus inventories in the U.S. MICHAEL WU ANALYST SHANGHAI METAL MARKET There is little time left before the deadline for shipments to the U.S., so shipments from Latin America may be the only ones that can make it." A CHINESE SMELTER MANAGER After U.S. tariffs are implemented, copper will flow into China and other countries. Prices will then return to normal fundamentals.
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Kommersant reports that 'Fortress Russia has confiscated 50 billion dollars in assets over the past three years'
The Kommersant newspaper reported that Russia confiscated assets valued at 3.9 trillion Russian roubles (or around $50 billion based on current exchange rates) over the last three years. This highlights the extent of the transformation to a "fortress Russia' economic model. Since Russia's troops entered Ukraine in February 20, 2022, foreign companies have faced the threat of state seizing their assets. However, Moscow has been increasingly focused on domestic assets, citing domestic security and strategic stability. Kommersant, a respected newspaper in Russia, stated that the size of asset seizures calculated by NSP Law Firm shows how Russia has moved from a relatively "open" economy to a fortress model. Kommersant reported that the law firm advised clients to eliminate any weak points in their business, such as second passports and economic ties to countries Russia considers "unfriendly", which is to say, all of Western Europe. Kommersant also said that owners should consider doing business with partners who are state-owned. Kommersant reported that assets worth 1.54 trillion rubles were seized in accordance with the law on strategic corporations. Another 1.07 trillion roubles was seized due to allegations of corruption, 385 billion on suspected privatisation violations, and 621,5 billion roubles for claims of poor management. In the 1990s, the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 sparked hopes that Russia would become a free-market economy. However, widespread corruption, economic turmoil, and crime undermined the confidence in democratic capitalism. In his first eight-year tenure, President Vladimir Putin supported economic freedoms and targeted some oligarchs. He also presided over significant growth in the economy, which grew to $1.8 trillion by 2008, from $200 billion. According to the International Monetary Fund, between 2008 and 2022, the economy reached $2.3 trillion. However, Western sanctions were a major factor after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. According to IMF data, the nominal dollar value of the Russian economy in 2024 is only $2.2 trillion.
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Kongsberg orders increase by 5% as the company expands its defence capacity to meet demand
The Norwegian defence manufacturer Kongsberg Gruppen announced on Wednesday that it had received more orders for the second quarter 2025, which reflects an increase in military spending by European nations. Kongsberg has customers from the defence, aerospace and maritime industries. It also serves energy, fishing, and the energy industry. Geir Haiy, CEO of the company, said in a press release that "there is a need to enhance defence capabilities and we are expanding capacity to meet growing demand." In response to Russia's invasion in Ukraine, and the threat by President Donald Trump to reduce military support to the region, many European nations have committed to increase their defence budgets significantly. Haoy stated that the company was experiencing record market activity. In the third quarter, 54% of orders were received by its Defence & Aerospace division. Kongsberg stated that there was a high level of activity in relation to the delivery of subsea technologies and solutions. The company's earnings before interest taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), which is the quarterly profit before interest taxes, depreciation, and amortisation, rose by 28% to 2,33 billion Norwegian crowns. LSEG polled five analysts who expected an average of 2.25 billion Norwegian crowns. Orders and profits for the group also soared in the first quarter, boosted by Europe’s defence spending. $1 = 10.0974 Norwegian crowns (Reporting and editing by Milla Nissi-Prussak, Gdansk)
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Copper prices fall outside US after Trump's 50% tariff
The London Metal Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a drop in copper prices on Wednesday, as the announcement of U.S. tariffs on copper signaled the end of a long-running arbitrage trade which had pulled the metal from the global markets. U.S. president Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that he would announce 50% tariffs on copper. U.S. Comex Copper futures rose more than 12%, reaching a new record high. The U.S. Commerce Department's Howard Lutnick announced shortly after that the copper tariffs were likely to be implemented by the end or August 1 of this year. The announcement was like a thunderous boom in the middle night. A 50% tariff is higher than expected. Since the announcement of the tariff investigation in February, traders from around the world have sent copper to the U.S. as they anticipated higher prices. Comex inventories have reached their highest level since last year. The days of this trade are numbered, given the short time left to move the copper before the deadline. This could potentially lead to a release of supply from outside the U.S. Prices reflected a shift in the market. In the wake of a Comex record, the LME three-month contract for copper fell by 1.2%, to $9,675 a metric ton, at 0346 GMT. The most traded copper contract on SHFE also dropped 1.1%, to 78.580 yuan (10,944.29) per ton. Michael Wu, an analyst for copper at the Shanghai Metals Market said that there are few buyers in Asia who want to deliver copper to the U.S. given the short time left before the deadline. He added that the only shipments likely to meet the deadline will be those from Latin America. LME nickel dropped 0.5% to $14,965 per ton. Lead fell 0.6% to $2,000, while tin eased by 0.2% to $33,370. Zinc was down 0.4% to $2709 and aluminium was down 0.5% to $2574. SHFE nickel dropped 1.4% to 118.960 yuan per ton. Lead gained 0.5% at 17,195 yuan. Zinc was unchanged at 22,010, aluminium rose 0.2% to 20.525 yuan and tin increased 0.2% to 264.880 yuan. Click or to see the latest news in metals, and other related stories.
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A flash flood in a New Mexico resort town traps many in their homes and vehicles
A state official reported that flash flooding in New Mexico caused by monsoon rains trapped dozens in their homes and vehicles around Ruidoso, a mountain resort village. The floods also swept an entire home away. The house was ripped apart from its foundations and careened through the brown, muddy water of the flood-engorged Rio Ruidoso. It smashed trees on the way. "I have seen the video." Danielle Silva, spokesperson for New Mexico Department of Homeland Security and Emergency Management said: "We don't know who was inside the house." No immediate reports of death or injury from Tuesday's floodwaters have been confirmed. Silva reported that emergency teams, pre-positioned in Ruidoso by local law enforcement, and the National Guard, conducted at least 85 rapid-water rescues, including many victims who had been stranded by flooding in their homes and cars. Silva reported that the river rose quickly to a record-breaking 20.24 feet (6.22 metres) during the flood of late afternoon. As the floodwaters started to recede, the authorities began searching through the debris for survivors. She said that the intensity of the debris flow had been heightened by the charred landscape that was left by the wildfires that swept through the area in June last year, and the subsequent flooding that eroded soil. Ruidoso, a popular ski resort and summer getaway in south-central New Mexico's Sierra Blanca range is located about 115 miles south of Albuquerque. The latest flooding occurred in Texas Hill Country four days after a flash flood caused by torrential rainfall along the Guadalupe River devastated a large area of Texas Hill Country. At least 109 people were killed and scores more are still missing. Reporting by Steve Gorman, Los Angeles; editing by Michael Perry
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Investors await clarity on tariffs, which has led to a drop in oil prices from their two-week highs
The oil prices fell on Wednesday, after reaching two-week highs the previous day. Investors were waiting for new developments regarding U.S. Tariffs and the expectation of rising crude stocks in the United States. Brent crude futures fell 7 cents or 0.1% to $70.08 per barrel at 0400 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude fell 8 cents or 0.1% to $68.25 per barrel. The latest delay in tariffs by U.S. president Donald Trump gave some hope to the major trading partners Japan, South Korea, and the European Union, that deals could be reached to reduce duties. However, it left some smaller exporters, such as South Africa, confused and without clarity about the way forward. Trump has pushed the previous deadline of Wednesday back to August 1. He declared on Tuesday that "no extensions will be granted." Trump said he will impose a tariff of 50% on imported copper, and introduce levies that have been threatened for years on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. This will intensify a trade conflict that has roiled markets around the world. Priyanka Sackdeva, a senior analyst at Phillip Nova, said: "Investors constantly deal with 'tariff headlines' and their potential impact on global trade." "... "... While there was a strong demand for travel during the U.S. holiday on July 4, industry data showed that crude inventories in the U.S. could have increased by around 7.1m barrels. Fuel products' stock levels were also lower. In a note to clients, ING analysts said that the API numbers overnight were negative for oil. They added that "changes made in refined products have been more positive". The U.S. Energy Information Administration will release official data at 1430 GMT today. The Energy Information Administration said in its monthly report on Tuesday that the U.S. would produce less oil than expected in 2025 due to the lower oil prices this year. In its report on short-term energy outlook, the EIA stated that it expects to see 13.37 million barrels of oil produced per day by 2025. This is a decrease from last month's prediction of 13.42 millions bpd.
Gold nears a one-week low amid firmer US dollar and yields
The gold price hovered near its lowest level in over a week on Wednesday, under pressure due to a stronger U.S. Dollar and rising Treasury yields. Meanwhile, fresh tariff threats by U.S. president Donald Trump unnerved the markets.
As of 0234 GMT, spot gold remained at $3.301.50 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures dropped 0.2% to $3310.10.
Trump announced that he would impose tariffs of 50% on imported copper, and levy the long-promised levies against semiconductors and pharmaceuticals.
Trump reiterated on Tuesday his threat to impose 10% tariffs on BRICS countries. A day earlier, he had notified 14 countries including Japan and South Korea of the tariff increases that would take effect August 1.
The U.S. Dollar Index steadied on Wednesday after reaching a new two-week-high late Tuesday. Meanwhile, the yield of benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Notes hovered around a three week high.
Ilya Spirak, global macro head at Tastylive said: "Gold prices have held up well against the backdrop of rising yields as well as a stronger dollar. Its ability to resist pressure indicates underlying strength and bullish bias."
A higher yield increases the cost of non-yielding gold, while a weaker US dollar makes it more affordable to holders of other currencies.
Investors are closely examining the minutes of the latest U.S. Federal Reserve meeting, which is due later today, to look for any hints about possible interest rate reductions, despite the central bank’s wait-and see approach.
Spivak stated that "it's been a quiet week in terms of economic data. However, the reaction of prices to the minutes from the June FOMC meeting could help determine where we stand on this debate between Fed and markets."
The New York Fed's most recent survey showed that Americans' expectations for inflation remained unchanged. One-year inflation was estimated at 3% in the latest survey, down from the 3.2% of May. Three- and five year inflation expectations were also maintained at 3% and 2,6% respectively.
Spot silver dropped 0.5% to $36.58 an ounce. Platinum was down 0.8% to $1,348.78, and palladium fell 0.4%, falling from $1,106.29.
(source: Reuters)