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China coal market does not anticipate imports to increase this year

China's coal imports are expected to be little bit altered or decrease in 2024 regardless of an expected increase in overall need for the contaminating fuel, authorities from markets, staterun energies and traders stated on Friday.

Tepid growth in shipments by the world's leading importer of the fuel might reduce worldwide rates and aggravate worries of oversupply, with Indonesia, the world's top exporter of coal, expected to more increase exports from record levels.

Wu Wenbin, head of coal management at energy Guangdong Energy Group, informed the China Coal Import International Top in Xiamen that he expected China's coal imports to range in between 450 million and 500 million metric lots this year.

That compared to a 2023 record of 474.42 million tons, surprising experts who had forecast imports of between 460 million and 470 million loads.

Out of 6 other industry officials talked to at the conference, four of them stated they expected imports to remain flat or decline in 2024, generally due to underwhelming development in economic activity.

I am filled with despair about the state of my industry, among the traders stated.

The other 2 stated they estimated an increase in imports as they expect global prices to become more competitive with regional rates.

RECORD 2023 IMPORTS

China's record imports and a surprise uptick in shipments by No. 2 coal importer India helped stabilize coal markets in 2023. India's imports are anticipated to fall in 2024 for the very first time given that the pandemic year of 2020.

Indonesian coal exports are anticipated to increase 2.1% to 528.72 million lots, despite expectations for production to fall 8.4%. to 710 million, said Hendra Sinadia, of the Indonesian Coal. Mining Association.

Sinadia estimated greater exports as he forecasted a smaller. share of output going to meet domestic fuel need.

Guangdong's Wu expects deliveries from Indonesia to China to. fall to 200 million metric lots this year, while imports of. Australian coal will return to a regular level of 80 million. heaps.

The world's leading coal user imported a record 222 million lots. of coal from Indonesia in 2023, and 62 million lots from. Australia, data from analytics firm Kpler revealed.

Despite the mostly underwhelming forecasts for imports,. total Chinese coal usage is anticipated to grow 4% in 2024,. greater than the average annual development of almost 3% since 2021,. Wu stated.

Earnings from coal mining and washing in China. fell 25.3% in 2023 on the year to 762.89 billion yuan ($ 106. billion), in line with a fall of 25.5% in domestic area costs,. Wu stated.

Wu forecast that the typical cost of 5,500 kcal/kg coal at. northern China ports would further be up to 850-950 yuan per. metric ton in 2024, from an average of 970 in 2015.

China is constructing a 600-million-ton coal reserve to. balance supply and need and control cost variations, he. added.

(source: Reuters)