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Dollar slips on markets that reduce Fed rate risk

Dollar slips on markets that reduce Fed rate risk
Dollar slips on markets that reduce Fed rate risk

Asian shares edged higher on Monday, led largely by Chinese stocks, ahead of important economic data. Investors kept a watchful eye on oil prices, after a large gain last week, amid a deadlock in the Gulf conflict.

After a string of weak data, including a surprise drop in retail sales and a lackluster run of economic reports, markets have given up on betting that the Federal Reserve will soon raise interest rates. According to CME Group's FedWatch, a rate hike in the next month has been priced at 30%. This is down from 50% a week ago.

The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan rose by 0.5% while Japan's Nikkei gained 0.3%.

The Hang Seng index rose 1.6% and Chinese blue-chips gained 0.8% ahead of the release of China's July activity data. Investors could be in for a surprise, as forecasts call for a slower industrial growth rate of 4.8% from 5.3%.

The South Korean stock exchanges were closed Monday due to a holiday. The Korean won was not affected by the directive from Donald Trump, U.S. president to the Pentagon to reduce the number of joint military exercises.

After last week's gains, oil prices are mixed. Iran called on the U.S. on Saturday to accept defeat while Trump encouraged Americans to accept higher gasoline prices as long as the conflict continues.

The Lebanese Health Ministry said that at least 11 people died in Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon, on Saturday. These strikes were some of the most deadly in recent weeks, since the country signed a peace agreement with Israel, mediated by the United States.

Brent crude rose 0.2%, to $88.67 per barrel, after gaining 6% the previous week. U.S. crude fell 0.2%, to $82.19, after gaining 5.4% the week before.

The U.S. will try to calm down the situation whenever oil prices rise above $100. This is the base case, according to Shane Oliver, Chief Economist at AMP.

The risk is that there won't be a sustainable peace deal and the flow of oil from the Middle East will remain down by 10%-15% compared to normal levels. We will also have to pay higher oil prices due the depletion of reserves.

FED RATE RISK DISAPPEARS

EUROSTOXX futures in Europe rose by?0.3%. S&P futures rose 0.1% after hitting a record high last week. Nasdaq Futures also gained 0.3%.

Stocks have been gaining momentum due to the decreasing risk that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates next week. U.S. Retail sales declined for the first time in nine months and consumer sentiment deteriorated more than expected in July, contributing to low inflation.

Investors will be examining the strength of U.S. consumer spending. Earnings this week are lighter, but still include Home Depot and Target. This week, the main data point is the August S&P PMIs to determine whether the acceleration of U.S. businesses at mid-year can be sustained.

U.S. Treasury rates dropped on bond markets after a mixed week last week. The yield on the?two-year U.S. Treasury fell 2 basis points, to?4,154%. It had fallen 3 basis point last week to reach a seven-week low of 4.0977%.

After a 4 basis point increase last week, the yield on ten-year bonds fell 2 basis points this week to 4.680%.

The dollar has been impacted by the soft data, and the euro hit a two-month peak of $1.1588. Australian and New Zealand dollar also reached 10-week highs at $0.7105 apiece and $0.5910 respectively.

Gold prices rose 0.4% this week to $4,391 per ounce, after a 0.8% increase last week. (Editing by Stephen Coates & Jacqueline Wong).

(source: Reuters)