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Gold recovers from a six-month low, inflation data is in focus
Investors?bought? the metal at bargain prices on Thursday as they awaited a U.S. inflation data that could shed light on Federal Reserve policy. Gold spot rose 0.5%, to $4,095.64 an ounce, by 0558 GMT. It had fallen as low as $4,022.09 per ounce on November 21, earlier in the day. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery were down 0.4% to $4,116.20. Matt Simpson, senior analyst at StoneX, said: "With prices soaring towards $4,000 it's a level of support which could encourage bears to make a quick profit or tempt battered Bulls off the sidelines." The U.S. Dollar Index?failed?to gain much ground after Wednesday's CPI Report. If there are no nasty surprises in the?PPI, gold may be due for a short-term technical rebound. The U.S. consumer price index increased in May at the fastest rate in three years, thanks to higher prices for energy in light of the Middle East conflict. The U.S. May PPI data will be released at 1230 GMT. According to the CME?FedWatch, traders are pricing in more than 70% of a U.S. interest rate increase by December. The United States traded air strikes with Iran on Thursday for a second day in a row. U.S. president Donald Trump threatened to launch more attacks if Tehran didn't immediately agree to a "peace deal". The oil prices rose on Thursday after Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as a result of U.S. airstrikes. While higher crude oil prices are a factor in inflation, gold is not a good hedge against it. Silver spot rose 0.4%, to $63.95 an ounce. Platinum gained 0.4%, to $1671.09 and palladium increased 2.9%, to $1248.45. (Reporting by Pablo Sinha in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu and Harikrishnan Nair)
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Mike Dolan: 'Global euro' must have more joint debt in order to be accepted.
After Christine Lagarde, the head of the European Central Bank, made a clear call for a global euro to prevent fraying Transatlantic relations, Europe has failed to significantly bolster its financial autonomy and investment autonomy. Some believe that Europe must now focus on the easy fruit, namely issuing more European Union bonds. Lagarde is more concerned about immediate matters on Thursday, as the ECB will be raising interest rates in order to reduce the inflationary impact of the?Iran-related oil shock. The report card for the first year of global euro adoption is disappointing. Last week, the ECB stated that despite a year full of opportunities for euro adoption and its place among world reserves, "very little" has changed. Even though global euro-denominated debt sales are at a record high, political disagreements continue to hinder further action. Piero Cipollone, ECB member and board member of the ECB, said Piero Cipollone last week that a stronger international role for euro would not happen by itself. He added that Europe must act deliberately to achieve this. The fragmentation of the bloc across critical areas prevents its deployment of its considerable economic power in a world that is increasingly dangerous and divided. This week, the political optics surrounding its joint defense agenda looked bad as Germany and France abandoned a groundbreaking project to build a new generation?fighter plane in favor of alternative initiatives. The EU's financial plans are centered around the Savings and Investment Union, which is a much-vaunted concept. The EU wants to eliminate intra-EU regulatory barriers, and the overlapping national supervision systems. This will help to channel large pools of domestic cash savings (EUR33 trillion or about $38.11 trillion at last count) into investment and retirement vehicles. The "E6", the six largest EU economies, were forced to take the lead in pushing forward on their own late last month. This has led to doubts over the speed at which a united front can be achieved. There has, however, been a more persuasive movement in certain areas to strengthen the euro's role as an external currency. Plans for a digital Euro are well-developed, and in February, the ECB opened up 'access to euro liquidity to more countries in an attempt to increase the currency’s international role. These are small, but important building blocks. "BLUE BOND" TRIAL BALLOON Euro?zone member countries would need to be more ambitious and serious about their joint sovereign bond offering. This would eliminate persistent doubts regarding the fragmented market for euro government bonds, create a large "safe asset" that could be used as the foundation of EU-wide investments and attract investors outside the EU. Despite the political opposition in Germany and other countries to the joint euro debt sale, the ECB is generally supportive of any way to increase the pool safe assets. The International Monetary Fund only last month urged European government to treat innovation and energy as EU-wide goods that should funded by joint borrowings, similar to how joint EU bonds were used post-pandemic for investment programmes. Over the years, many proposals have been made to expand the pan EU bond market. One proposal, however, caught the attention of policymakers over the last year and was presented by its authors again in the past month. In a paper published in June by former IMF economist Olivier Blanchard, and Citadel senior executive Angel Ubide, they proposed that national debt up to a quarter each of the member countries' GDP be replaced with jointly guaranteed "blue" eurobonds. It focuses instead on how to expand the market in order to provide a viable rival to U.S. Treasuries. This is a huge task, as there are only around a trillion euro of outstanding joint debt at the moment. The paper estimates that the blue bond concept could multiply this five-fold. Ubide and Blanchard republished their proposal with a Q&A last month, saying that the case for boosting a joint euro bond market 'was more urgent than a year earlier, as doubts over NATO's future made strategic autonomy a priority, and there was growing interest in the plan at the ECB. They concluded by saying that the "time is up." It is not a good sign that the government will adopt such a plan or support another round of joint debt issuance. If the ECB cannot or will not get their governments to agree to such a move, then it could be destined to write dreary annual reports about euro usage for many years to come. The opinions expressed are those of Mike Dolan a columnist at. This column is great! Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks. ($1 = 0.8659 euros)
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GRAPHIC - World markets walk a fine line between AI stocks, oil shocks and equities.
Investors said that the turmoil on the world markets over the past week showed the economic outlook was now on a razor's edge. There were equal odds for an AI boom to boost growth, or oil shocks from the U.S. - Iran war to send stocks and bonds into a tailspin. The global equities market hit its highest point on June 3 and then experienced their worst day since October the next day. This week, they have been reversing direction constantly to match President Donald Trump's volatile remarks about Iran. Florian Ielpo, head of multi-asset and macro portfolio management at Lombard Odier Investment Managers, said that most investors had assumed that the Strait would reopen in less than three months. He added: "If we were to expect oil prices at $95 for several months in the future, it would represent a radical change in our outlook and lead to a stagflation scenario." The market is treading a thin line. ALL? TOGETHER In recent months, as interest rate and inflation markets have become more correlated with oil forecasts and tech investment bets, assets that were not clearly linked have moved in tandem. AI-driven optimism has boosted Wall Street stocks and U.S. household assets, increased official growth forecasts in the coming years, driven rapid expansion for Asian exporters, and lifted sentiment across the board, from global bank shares, to Greek debt. Taiwan is expecting the highest economic growth for 2026, thanks to semiconductor exports. Global tech spending, on the other hand, has sent both imports and exports in China, which is the largest consumer of commodities in the world, surging. It's for this reason that the FTSE 100, which includes energy producers and miner stocks, has stopped its 'usual' habit of moving inversely with so-called growth shares in the tech sector and is now rising along side them. THE FLIPSIDE Investors warned that these tech-driven correlations would also make it harder to find "places to hide" if fears of inflation and rate hikes start to drive world markets. Investors warned that after markets priced in 70% odds of an U.S. interest rate hike, South Korea's won fell to its lowest level in 17 years and the country's technology-heavy Kospi index plummeted almost 9% within hours. Alessia Bernardi, global director of macro-economics at Amundi's research arm, Europe's biggest asset manager, still favors equities and believes that the markets are not pricing in a long-term Hormuz shut down. She warned that "a repricing (of interest rate) policy, along with higher oil costs and shortages, will mean stagflationary risk and some countries are now getting into a regressive outlook." The energy supply crisis is already affecting economies like Germany and India that aren't closely linked to technology. Buy?THE DIP? Since Trump's so called Liberation Day tariffs in April 2025, professional asset managers are accustomed to the rapid shifts in sentiment caused by short-term geopolitical events. Ben Jones, Invesco’s global head for research, said: "If you believe that the Strait will remain closed for an extended period of time that we?will see demand destruction and inflation then it's time to position your portfolio for stagflation." He said that history has taught him that "these geopolitical risk shall pass" and, when they do, the markets tend to rally very quickly. After Trump's announcements of tariffs, Wall Street's S&P 500 index fell sharply and then made a rapid and fierce rebound. The equity and bond markets also experienced the biggest swings since the COVID-19 epidemic. HEDGING Michael Nizard said that he topped up his derivatives, which profited from the stock market volatility. Many other asset managers have stated that they are now purchasing more insurance products rather than more equity. Kevin Thozet, a member of the Carmignac Investment Committee, said that he increased his holdings in inflation-linked U.S. debt because the market forecasts on U.S. consumer price were complacent. Data centre construction is capital-intensive and will drive up energy costs, said Thozet. Ielpo, a Lombard Odier employee, said that he hedged his market bets while cutting back on debt. This can provide a safe haven and also move in line with inflation predictions. The German Bund yields have reached their highest levels in 15 years, as the price of debt has dropped during the Iran War. Meanwhile, the Japanese 10-year yields have reached three-decade-highs. Bond market volatility has risen by around 5% since the beginning of the war. The stock market volatility is about the same as its long-term average but 35% more than it was year-to date.
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Gold recovers after a six-month low. Inflation data are in focus
Investors awaited the release of a key U.S. Inflation Report that could shed light on Federal Reserve policy. Gold spot rose by 0.1%, to $4,077.39 an ounce, at 0429 GMT. It had fallen earlier that day, to its lowest level since November 21, when it was $4,022.09 per ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery were down 0.8% to $4,098.90. "Bearishness had?taken a hold of gold and traders are derisking now." Prices are 'hurting towards $4,000 and this is an obvious level of resistance that could encourage bears to take a quick profit or tempt battered Bulls off the sidelines," said Matt Simpson. The U.S. Dollar Index failed to gain much ground after Wednesday's CPI Report. If there are no 'horrible surprises' in the PPI, gold could be due for a technical rebound over the short term. The Middle East conflict and the surge in energy prices were a major factor in the increase in consumer inflation in May. The markets are now awaiting the May U.S. Producer Price Index, which is due later today, to assess the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. CME FedWatch shows that traders are pricing in more than 70% of the possibility of an increase in U.S. interest rates by December. The U.S. Military announced on Wednesday that the United States had 'begun a new?round of attacks against multiple targets in Iran overnight, after President Donald Trump? vowed to launch more strikes if a peace agreement was not reached. The price of oil rose by?more that $2 on Thursday as Iran announced the closure of Strait of Hormuz in response to the U.S. strike. While gold is considered a hedge against inflation and can be influenced by higher interest rates, it tends to lose its appeal. Silver spot fell by 0.1%, to $63.64 an ounce. Platinum was unchanged at $1,663.80 and palladium rose 2.3%, to $1,241.77. (Reporting by Pablo Sinha in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)
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Russell: China's May data is confusing, but the Iran war has not affected iron ore prices.
The U.S. and Israel war against Iran has not affected the price of iron ore, but this relative calm hides a shift in the?dynamics? for the steel raw material. China purchases about three quarters of the world's seaborne iron ore. It uses it to feed mills that make just over half the steel produced worldwide. Iron ore is mostly sourced from Australia and Brazil. Other producers such as South Africa and Guinea also contribute a small amount. This trade bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. The narrow waterway that connects Iran to Oman has been closed off since February 28, when the U.S., Israel and other countries launched an air campaign against Iran. The iron ore price has remained relatively stable since the beginning of the conflict. This is in contrast to the volatile prices for commodities such as crude oil, refined goods, liquefied gas, coal and aluminium. Singapore Exchange iron ore contract prices have traded at a range of $14 per metric tonne, anchored around $105 a ton this year. The price of marine bunker fuel rose from $98.20 per ton in February to $111.91 per ton on May 11, amid concerns among Chinese buyers about a possible shortage due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Iron ore prices have fallen as concerns about?imminent fuel shortages have diminished. They ended at $101.65 per ton on 10th June. Customs data show that China imported 516.26 millions tons in the first five months, an increase of 6.3% compared to a year ago. MAY DATA DISCREPANCY According to official figures, imports in May were 97.71 millions tons, down by 6% compared to April and a three-month record low. The soft imports in May were contrary to the estimates of commodity analysts DBX Commodities Kpler. DBX estimated seaborne iron ore arrivals in May at 105.56 millions tons, while Kpler estimated 106.4 million. Although data from tracking services does not always match up with customs, an 8 million ton gap for a single month is rare. It is likely that official numbers will rebound in June, as the lower number of imports for May may have been due to cargoes arriving at the end the month being pushed forward into June for evaluation. China's iron ore imports are performing better than China's steel industry. The latter has seen its output fall by 4.1% to 331.12 millions tons in the first quarter of this year. Iron ore inventories in China's port reached a record of 166.91 millions tons during the week ending March 13. SteelHome consultants SteelHome have reported that they have declined since then to a?159.09 millions tons during the week ending June 5. The 132.0 million tonnes in the same week of 2025 were 21% more than today. The decline in domestic iron ore, both in terms of volume and quality, is another factor that drives iron ore imports. According to MySteel, China's output of iron ore was 326.8 millions tons during the first four months, a 1% decrease from a similar period last year. The drop in 2025 is 2.8%, from 1.04 billion tons in 2024 to 983.7 millions tons. China's iron ore contains between 20% and 30% iron. This means that it must be upgraded in order to match the imported grades of 60%-65%. The process is energy-intensive and costly. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of a columnist who writes for.
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Copper prices fall as the escalating conflict in the Middle East fuels concerns about slowdown
Copper prices fell on Thursday as the Middle East conflict escalated, pushing oil prices up and raising concerns about global growth. By 0300 GMT, the benchmark three-month copper price?on London Metal Exchange?had fallen 0.75% to a metric ton of $13,414.5. It had hit a new low of $13,378 per ton earlier in the day. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract fell 1.5%, to 102 910 yuan (15,187.43 dollars) per ton. SHFE prices touched?102.640 yuan per ton in the early morning hours, their lowest level since the 8th of May. Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz will be closed until further notice and the US Central Command denied this. Brent oil prices rose by 1.57%. High energy costs?squeeze the manufacturing sector, which is a major source of copper demand. The LME saw a 0.29% increase in aluminium prices and the SHFE a 0.4% rise. The production of aluminium is an energy-intensive process, and the Middle East has 9% of the global smelting capacities for the metal. Total aluminium?stocks are low. Total Aluminium? Stocks Data released on Wednesday revealed that the number of warehouses registered with LME remained at an all-time low. Data showed that U.S. inflation was above the Federal Reserve target of 2% in May, but below investors' worst expectations. The macroeconomic outlook has been dampened by persistently high inflation, and concerns have been raised about interest rates that are higher for longer. Fed?fund Futures now price in an implied probability of?51.6% that the Fed will increase rates during its two-day October meeting. Zinc fell 1.09% on the LME, while lead increased 0.36% and nickel dropped 0.07%. Tin also declined 0.58%. On the SHFE, tin fell 0.97%, whereas nickel dropped 1.46%. Nickel also lost 2.46%.
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Oil prices rise more than $1 after traders become uneasy over the escalation of US-Iran tensions
The oil prices rose on Thursday after Iran declared that the Strait of Hormuz was a 'critical energy chokepoint' and 'closed it if necessary. This came as the U.S. launched more strikes against Iran, while President Donald Trump threatened to launch even more attacks in the event of a failed peace agreement. Brent futures were up $1.48 or 1.59% to $94.58 per barrel at 0243 GMT. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), which is a blend of WTI and Brent, was up $1.71 or 1.90% to $91.74. U.S. crude oil futures rose by more than $3 in the early part of the session. Iran's top Joint Military Command announced on Thursday the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, including oil tanks and commercial vessels, saying that any vessel trying to pass will be shot. In a client note, ING analysts said that the deal was still a long way off. They also noted that energy flow from the Persian Gulf would remain severely constrained. They said that the renewed escalation of fighting caused oil prices to rise in early morning trading. The U.S. military said Wednesday on X, that commercial ships are still transiting in and out the strait. Iran's state-run media had reported that U.S. warships near the waterway have been targeted by drones and missiles. U.S. forces launched additional strikes at multiple targets in Iran, starting at 5:15 pm EDT (21.15 GMT). This is the latest of a series of escalating attacks that have threatened to reignite the full-scale conflict which was stopped in early April after the two sides reached a fragile truce. Trump said to Fox News reporter 'Trey Yingst, on Wednesday evening, that the strikes will stop soon but that he "would bomb the shite out of them", if Iran’s leaders do not sign an accord with the?U.S. immediately. The Iranian blockade, which has lasted for months, of the Strait of Hormuz, which normally transports a fifth of all oil and gas shipments worldwide, has kept 'oil prices high. The EIA reported that U.S. crude oil inventories dropped by 7.2m barrels, to 426.5m barrels, in the week ending June 5. This was compared with the analysts' expectation in a poll, which predicted a draw of 4m barrels. U.S. crude oil inventories have dropped by 79,000,000 barrels, including those in strategic reserves, since the Iran War began on February 28. The top global producer has moved to plug supply gaps as the strait was effectively closed. A survey revealed that OPEC's output fell to its lowest levels in more than two decades in May, due to the U.S. blockade of Iran's exports, and the effective closure by Tehran of the strategic waterway, which slashed shipments coming from other Gulf producers.
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Singapore bank DBS offers tokenised physical Gold to retail customers
DBS Group, Singapore’s largest bank in terms of assets, announced?on Thursday that it would offer tokenised gold to retail customers, as the demand for precious metals grows and the city-state pushes to become a hub for gold trading. Gold remains a popular store of value, despite recent price fluctuations. Gold prices reached a record $5,600 per ounce in this year due to concerns about inflation, geopolitical tensions, and market volatility. But spot gold fell on Wednesday to $4,111.95, its lowest level since March 23, and 27% below that peak. DBS, the largest bank in Southeast Asia, announced in a press release that DBS?Physical gold tokens would be available via its digibank application in the second half 2026. It stated that 'the offering will be the first to allow retail customers in Singapore to digitally access physical gold tokens, hold them and trade them through a single platform. Tokenisation is the process of turning a physical asset into a digital coin that can be electronically traded. Each token is backed by 1 gram of gold that DBS holds in a vault?in Singapore. As of Thursday, a gram of physical gold was worth approximately S$200 ($155). DBS said that customers will be able buy smaller amounts of gold, trade at any time and redeem tokens to get 'physical gold. James Tan, the?group director of investment products, said that gold as an asset class had taken off over the past few years. He added that tokenisation would enable more retail customers invest in gold. DBS is exploring the possibility of?listing the tokens on its DBS Digital Exchange, which is open to accredited investors and institutional partners. DBS Wealth said that physical gold holdings of DBS clients have doubled in the last three years.
MORNING BID EUROPE - Tech and war worries sap confidence
Gregor Stuart Hunter gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets.
Oil is back in the spotlight and equity markets are struggling to find a footing after the selloff this week triggered by new?blows against the ceasefire?in?the Middle East. U.S. has?launched a new strike against multiple targets within Iran. President Donald Trump has promised even more attacks in the event of no peace agreement.
Brent crude rose by 1.7% to $94.64 on Friday after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran announced that it had targeted U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain and threatened?to target any vessel crossing through the Strait of Hormuz.
The region's equities fell, with MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan falling 1.3%. Taiwanese shares and Korean shares led the declines while AI chipmakers fluctuated between gains and losses.
Analysts have attributed recent tech slumps to investors repositioning themselves ahead of SpaceX's upcoming share offering. The IPO, which is expected to attract more than $250 billion in investor demand, has been reported to have drawn more investor interest.
Oracle's announcement of spending plans that exceeded expectations and fueled debt concerns sent its shares plummeting by 10% after-hours.
The euro rose 0.1% against the U.S. Dollar to $1.1544 ahead of the European Central Bank’s announcement on its June monetary policy later Thursday. It is widely expected that the ECB will raise rates.
The euro held gains even as the U.S. Dollar index remained at its highest levels since the ceasefire negotiations with Tehran began in early April. According to CME's FedWatch, Wednesday's strong U.S. inflation data has pushed market bets towards an October rate hike. However, expectations are still finely balanced.
The yield of the 10-year Treasury Bond in the United States was 4.552%, up 1.4 basis points.
U.S. equity contracts are on a tentative footing. S&P 500 e-minis futures rose 0.2%, and they're expected to end a two-day loss streak. Early European futures dropped?0.8%. German DAX was down?0.6%. FTSE futures also fell 0.8%.
The following are key developments that could impact the markets on Thursday.
Economic events in Germany: Current Account Balance for April
Euro Zone: ECB monetary Policy Decision for June and Press Conference
U.S. PPI for May
Debt auctions
UK: 3-year government debt
(source: Reuters)