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Talks at a standstill in the Iran war as hostilities flare up again
On Wednesday, the Gulf was roiled again by reports of missile attacks against Kuwait. Meanwhile, diplomatic talks between Iran & the United States made little progress. Kuwait's army claimed that its air defenses intercepted hostile missiles and drones, while Bahrain reported a warning siren and advised residents to "go to the closest safe space". The United States claimed it had fired at a tanker heading toward Iran. The?news agency of Iran reported that there were explosions heard near Qeshm Island which is near the disputed Strait of Hormuz. This was just the latest in a series of similar flare-ups. The conflict has been at a standstill for more than three months since the U.S., Israel and other countries launched attacks against Iran. A shaky truce is in place, but the Strait of Hormuz still remains closed to most maritime traffic. Last week, Iran and the United States announced that they reached an initial tentative agreement to stop the war. The two sides have yet to sign the agreement. Iranian media reported that Tehran had not spoken to Washington in several days. However, U.S. president Donald Trump stated that negotiations haven't stopped. He said, in a post on social media, that "the conversations between us had been ongoing for four days, three days, two days, one day, and today." Discussions on Nuclear Program Since mid-March Trump has said that he's close to a agreement which would end the fighting, and allow negotiators the opportunity to address thorny questions such as the future of Iran’s nuclear program. Trump has said that his number one priority is to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear arms. Iran denies that it is working on a nuclear weapon and claims its atomic program is for peaceful purposes. Tehran wants?access billions in oil revenue, waivers for crude exports, the lifting of an American blockade of its ports, and to maintain leverage over the Strait. U.S. Secretary Marco Rubio said to lawmakers on Tuesday that Washington would only agree to a reduction in sanctions if Iran agreed to stop its nuclear activities. Rubio said, "The War is Over," in a heated exchange with Democratic New Jersey Senator Cory Booker, who disagreed. ISRAEL CONTINUES TO IMPLEMENT STRIKES IN LEBANON The war, which began on 28 February, has claimed thousands of lives, mostly in Iran and Lebanon. The war has caused global pain, as it has pushed up energy prices. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz which was previously used to transport about a fifth of world oil and gas. Israel's deepest incursion in Lebanon since 25 years was sparked by the latest conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. According to?Lebanese sources, Israel continued its strikes on Tuesday on a'string of southern Lebanon towns,' despite the partial ceasefire that was announced by the U.S. on Monday. An Israeli drone hovering over Beirut on Tuesday kept residents on edge. "Each time we return home, there's a warning that we may be displaced again," Faten Al Chehime said, after fleeing her home in Beirut suburbs south on Monday. She had only returned to the area two weeks earlier. MSC, the largest shipping company in the world, announced on Tuesday that two projectiles had struck one of its ships the day before while it was docked at Iraq's Umm Qasr Port. Iran's Revolutionary guards?said that they carried out the attacks in retaliation to a U.S. strike on an Iranian vessel within the Gulf of Oman. UNICEF revealed the wide-reaching effects of this crisis. It said that rising transport costs and disruptions in supply chains were preventing life-saving aid from reaching Gaza, Lebanon and other countries. (Writing and editing by Cynthia Osterman; Andy Sullivan)
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Enel aims to reach agreement with Brazil regulator on Sao Paulo electricity contract
According to the official minutes, Enel, an Italian company, met with Brazil's power regulator last week. The meeting took place amid a dispute over the firm's concessions in Sao Paulo. Authorities are considering revoking approvals due to several outages that have occurred in recent years, during heavy rains. Two sources with knowledge of the matter said that Enel asked for the meeting to be held on Tuesday to find alternatives to the revocation process. Sources said that, although no formal proposal was made, Enel discussed increasing its investments or committing to "conduct adjustments" in Brazil. Enel has changed its approach after meeting Brazil's energy watchdog Aneel. Earlier this year, the company had gone to court in order to prevent the regulator from possibly forfeiting the contract. Minutes show that the topic of the meeting was "possible solutions based on consensus" for the concession. Enel stated in a press release that it had made itself available to the authorities for the evaluation of complementary measures and to make additional investments. The focus was primarily on the improvement of service in the concession area. The 'company, who has stated that it is in compliance with its contract obligations, and does not intend to renounce the concession, filed their 'final defense' last month. They requested a technical expert examine the alleged misunderstandings between the regulator and the?company. Aneel is analyzing Enel’s arguments before deciding if it will propose revoking concession. The government has the final say. The final decision rests with the government.
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CopperTech Metals announces revenue surge in US IPO filing
CopperTech Metals, which is pursuing the Trump administration's push for mineral self-reliance, reported an increase in revenue when it filed for its initial public offering in the United States on Tuesday. The IPO market in the United States has recovered with big names like Elon Musk’s SpaceX, and AI giant Anthropic seeking to go public. Vedanta Resources, the global mining conglomerate, set up CopperTech Metals as a U.S. based integrated copper and cobalt manufacturer to own and run the Konkola Copper Mines located in Zambia's Copperbelt Province. Vedanta has announced that it will launch CopperTech in November of 2025. The company has filed confidential documents to go public the same month. The company wants to take advantage of a structural change in the demand for copper, which is fueled by the growth in data centers and AI infrastructure, as well as economic growth in developing markets. The company intends to invest in exploration across its operating sites and selected international jurisdictions, to support long-term resource development, beyond its production expansion at Konkola. The move comes at a moment when the Donald Trump Administration added 10 minerals to a list that it considers essential for the U.S. national security and economy, including copper. The Administration is expanding its?list in an effort to boost domestic mining, and reduce reliance on imports from China. The?company's Konkola Copper?Mines reported net sales of $1.33 billion for the year ending March 31, 2026. This is up from $398 million a?year ago. The copper producer plans to list its shares at the New York Stock Exchange with the ticker "CUX". Citigroup, Cantor Capital, BMO Capital Markets and RBC Capital Markets were among the underwriters for the offering. Reporting by Pritam Biwas in Bengaluru, editing by Arun K.
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Venezuelan legislator gives initial approval to privatized investment in the electricity sector
The National Assembly of Venezuela approved initially on Tuesday a reform that would allow joint ventures to be created after almost?two decades under state control. The bill is the latest attempt?by a?interim president Delcy Rodriguez who came to power in January following the U.S. removal of her predecessor. She has changed the hydrocarbons laws and mining laws to open up the country's economic system to foreign capital. The U.S. administration is supporting the reforms, which are also backed by President Donald Trump. He has said that his government will revive Venezuela's economic situation to benefit U.S. businesses and Venezuelans. Analysts say that Venezuela's power sector is in a serious crisis because of a lack investment and maintenance. Analysts say that large parts of the country are affected by long-lasting power outages. This affects water and telecommunications. Investors have also been hesitant to move forward on projects due to the lack of reliable electricity. After a first debate, lawmakers approved the 42-article bill. They must now conduct a consultation and hold a second discussion to approve this reform definitively. The draft legislation reviewed by allows the development of the energy sector, including generation, transmission and distribution, to be carried out either by the government, by joint ventures where the state holds the majority stake or by companies with a state minority shareholding. According to the?explanatory _statement that was approved at Tuesday's meeting, "the President of the Republic will have to approve the establishment of any joint-venture and its terms of concession." The reform, if approved, would be a major overhaul of a sector that was nationalized by the late president Hugo Chavez in 2007. In 2010, his government supported a?law reserving the generation, transmission and distribution of electricity to the state. Joint ventures could be extended up to 15 more years under the proposed proposal. Sources told us in May that ensuring a stable supply of electricity is one Rodriguez's highest priorities. However, the cash-strapped nation has not been able to pay suppliers on time, despite its need. Reporting by
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The world stock market rallies on AI optimism, but concerns about Iran continue
Oil prices rose amid rising uncertainty over a potential deal to end the U.S. - Iran?war. Global stocks also rallied Tuesday. Donald Trump, the U.S. President, said that talks with Iran continue. Iran has been reviewing an agreement to end their war with the U.S. but hasn't communicated with Washington in a few days. Brent futures rose by 1.1%, settling at $96 per barrel. This is the highest price since May 26. AI ENTHUSIASM Anthropic announced on Monday that it had filed a confidential application for a U.S. Initial Public Offering, edging out rival OpenAI in a closely-watched race to reach the public markets. Alphabet, the parent company of Google, is also looking to raise $80 Billion in equity to finance its AI infrastructure expansion. This is a clear indication of the enormous sums required to keep pace with the AI arms race. This represents a major shift from a period where cash was flowing freely to a time when the market had to be tapped to fund its expansion. Russ Mould is an investment director at AJ Bell. According to Labor Department figures, U.S. jobs?openings - a measure for labor demand - increased in April more than was expected, reaching the highest level since nearly two years. This came after data showed that U.S. Manufacturing beat expectations and hit a 4-year high on Monday. It was likely due to firms front-loading their orders in response to rising prices and concerns about supply linked to the U.S./Israeli war against Iran. Gerry Sparrow is the chief investment officer of Sparrow Capital Management. He said that "the jobs data was higher than expected. You would think it would have increased rates, but they did not go up." "Employment levels are high, which is good for consumer spending." "I think the market is healthy due to the employment data." All three Wall Street indexes ended higher, after initially losing ground. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.45%. The S&P 500 gained 0.13%. And the Nasdaq composite?rose 0.03%. The STOXX 600 index in Europe was up by 0.66% as the chipmaker STMicroelectronics raised technology stocks. MSCI's index of global?stocks? was up 0.43%, after reaching a new record high. Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang told reporters in Taipei that the company has enough supply to support a strong growth of central processing units (CPUs) and graphics processing units. However, he admitted supply constraints remain a concern. The dollar has risen slightly on the currency markets. The euro was unchanged at $1.1629. The Japanese yen fell 0.17% to 159.93 dollars. The pound rose 0.08% to £1.3462. The euro zone core inflation rate was 2.5% in May, which is higher than the 2.4% expected and the 2.1% for April. Money markets are pricing in a quarter point increase by the European Central Bank this month and at least another one before year's end. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10 year notes dropped 3.2 basis points, to 4.445%. Gold increased 0.09%, to $4487.49 per ounce.
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Top US spy agencies fight over turf and mission
People familiar with the situation say that the CIA has stopped contributing to certain intelligence assessments produced by the office nation's top spy, such as those regarding the Iran War. This is because disputes have erupted over intelligence sharing and areas of responsibility. A?U.S. official and three people with direct knowledge of the matter said that the infighting between the CIA (Central Intelligence Agency) and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence has been raging for over a year. This has disrupted collaboration on national intelligence analyses?onwhich presidents have long relied to navigate through complex foreign challenges. Officials and people who have direct knowledge of the issue. Sources spoke under condition of anonymity in order to discuss?sensitive internal?matters. Sources said that the core of the disagreements was a dispute over the task force created by Tulsi Gabrield, director of national intelligence in April 2025. Two people said that the CIA, under Director John Ratcliffe's leadership, believes that Gabbard’s Director’s Initiatives Group acted recklessly in circumventing declassification and intelligence sharing protocols. ODNI officials claim that the CIA has consistently denied the group access to intelligence. The collapse in intelligence agency collaboration comes at a dangerous time for the Trump Administration, as the U.S. is embroiled in a conflict with Iran and faces national security challenges from China's military expansion to Russia’s war in Ukraine. This also indicates that the reforms implemented after September 11, 2001, which created the director of national Intelligence to coordinate the 18 U.S. spy agencies, did not end the dysfunction. "ODNI should be the oil that keeps the arteries in the intelligence community flowing, and that removes any blockages," said Beth Sanner. She was a former assistant director of national Intelligence during the first term of President Donald Trump. If you don't do that, you risk intelligence failures because agencies will retreat into their stovepipes. The CIA can also reach the President and other policymakers through other channels, besides the?assessments prepared by ODNI. The intelligence is a major part of the Presidential Daily Brief - a highly classified compendium of daily intelligence reports for the President. Gabbard announced last week she would step down from her position as Trump's chief?spy by June 30. She cited the illness of her husband. Trump announced on Tuesday that he had appointed Bill Pulte, the chief of the Federal Housing Finance Agency as acting director for national intelligence. Olivia Coleman, a spokeswoman for the ODNI, stated that "the president and policymakers are receiving the best intelligence and analyses" from the intelligence services. She added that ODNI, and the agencies under its supervision, "communicate daily and collaborate with CIA counterparts on the full spectrum of intelligence operations and products." Coleman stated that the Director's Initiatives Group operated within ODNI oversight authorities, and supported President's Executive Orders. In February, it was reported that Gabbard has wound down her group and reassigned their personnel to other departments within her agency. This is due to congressional scrutiny of the group's activities. Liz Lyons, CIA's Director of Public Relations, said that under Director Ratcliffe the CIA moved quickly to meet President Trump's priorities. The agency became more aggressive and took smart risks in order to outmaneuver its adversaries. This gave the United States a decisive edge. Davis Ingle, a White House spokesperson, said that Trump's "peace-through-strength foreign policy" is a tried and true approach to keeping America safe and deterring global threats. Media efforts to sow division within the country would also fail. Ingle stated that "President Trump is confident in the entire team of exceptional national security experts." LESS COOPERATION IN INTELLIGENCE EVALUATIONS The mutual distrust between the agencies is evident in the CIA's decision to drastically reduce its contribution to Gabbard’s office's assessments. The National Intelligence Council, the leading U.S. intelligence analysis body, has relied heavily on the CIA to produce its reports. These reports are important, especially in times of war. Two sources who have direct knowledge of the issue said that the agency is no longer involved in regular assessments of Iran, where the U.S. Military has been fighting against since February. Sources said that the CIA and ODNI operate largely in two separate analytic operations. Sources said that at one point in the past year, due to friction between two agencies, the CIA stopped publishing NIC reports through the distribution service for the internal intelligence communities it controls. This temporarily limited the availability of analytical products. An official in the United States said that reports were withheld only for "a few" hours due to a "processing problem." Four sources claim that the interagency friction began soon after Gabbard took up her post in February 2025. Sources said that one of her first actions was to tighten up the production of the Presidential Daily Brief. Sources said that the CIA had long played a leading role in compiling this brief. Sources say that the relationship soured even more with the creation of a Director's Initiatives Group to "root out", alleged politicization in the intelligence community. The group also investigated the origins and security of COVID-19, as well the security of voting machines. Some critics, including former intelligence officials claim that the group was created to exact revenge against Trump's perceived political enemies. Two people familiar with the situation say that task force members pressed the CIA at various points to share the intelligence and materials required to complete ODNI assigned probes. However, they felt not enough was shared. CIA OFFICERS OUTTERED Gabbard removed two of the top CIA officials who headed the NIC in May 2025. A government official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that the ODNI had removed the two because "they created a toxic workplace, as documented by a survey of the workforce, and they had a long history of politicizing the intelligence." The official failed to provide any evidence that would support these claims. Gabbard then stripped security clearances from 37 current and ex-officials in 'August', revealing in the meanwhile the identity of a CIA agent working undercover overseas. Gabbard claimed that the 37 had politicized intelligence and leaked it, but did not provide proof. Former officials and other people charged that this move was partly in response to a 2017 intelligence assessment which found that Russia used an extensive influence campaign to sway 2016 presidential votes to Trump. Last month, tensions between the CIA and ODNI became public when a CIA agent assigned to the Director’s Initiatives Group told a Senate panel the agency had denied the group access to intelligence about the origins COVID-19. Two people familiar with the investigation said that the dispute triggered an inquiry by the Inspector General's Office, an independent watchdog located at ODNI. Could not determine the scope. (Reporting and editing by Don Durfee, Daniel Wallay and Errin Banco)
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IAEA offers technical support to UAE following attack on nuclear plant
IAEA Chief Rafael 'Grossi announced on Tuesday that the agency is providing technical and moral support to the United Arab Emirates after visiting the site of a nuclear plant which was attacked by a drone last month. Grossi stated that Emirati authorities reacted quickly to the attack on the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant, shutting down one reactor due to the loss of external power. Last month, the plant, which is the first commercial nuclear power plant in the Arab World, was attacked by a drone that the Gulf state claimed had been launched from Iraq. According to Emirati officials, the drone that breached the UAE defences struck an electric generator located outside the inner perimeter. According to the UAE defense ministry, only two drones were intercepted. The IAEA director said that a number activities will be undertaken to complete the repairs at this plant. He said that the plant could be repaired in "a matter of weeks". Grossi stated that there was a requirement for both physical repairs and maintenance of an external powerline. He said, "The repairs have already begun." The UAE's Federal Authority for Nuclear Regulation (FAN) said that the plant was safe, and that there had been no release of radioactive materials as a result of the drone attack. Although hostilities are mostly quiet since the ceasefire came into effect in April of this year, Iraq has launched drones towards Gulf countries including Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Iraq has a number of powerful Iranian-backed militias that have claimed attacks on "enemy base in Iraq and the area" during the U.S./Israeli war against Iran. Reporting by Yousef SABA; Writing by Menna A. Alaa El Din; Editing and Gareth Jones, Cynthia Osterman.
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Goldman CEO: High oil prices could change consumer behavior in the second half of 2026
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon believes that consumer behavior will change in 2026, as inflation rises due to higher oil prices. Solomon, speaking at the Economic Club of New York's?event, said that "you will see more changes in consumer behavior." The U.S. Inflation rate increased in April at the fastest rate in three years, largely due to higher energy prices resulting from the Iran War. This has led economists to believe that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates the same well into next. He said that he could see economic data over the next six-months that would change the sentiment. "But at the moment, it's not happening." Solomon said that he has a lot of confidence in the Federal Reserve, its Governors and Kevin Warsh. He said that "there is enough capital at this time to cover what we are talking about." SpaceX, Elon Musk’s rocket and satellite firm, is planning to aim for a $1.75 trillion valuation in its massive initial public offering. Two people familiar with this matter said on Tuesday. The listing will kick-start a "wave" of mega-IPOs. SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are all poised to add almost $4 trillion in market capitalization and increase competition for investors. Solomon noted that history has shown that the market's exuberance can last for a long time. He said that we are in a time where 'greed' is more prevalent than fear. Solomon said his meeting with New York Mayor Zohran?Mamdani was productive. I'm hopeful that as the mayor transitions from campaigning into governing, he will talk about, communicate with, and support the entire business community. (Reporting by Saeed Azhar in New York and Manya Saini in Bengaluru; Editing by Arun Koyyur)
ROI-Bumper US tax refunds soften energy blow. McGeever: But not for much longer
Tax deadlines in the U.S., such as April 15, are often met with both anticipation and dread -- the "administrative grind" of filing and the possibility of a windfall refund. This year's refund may be much larger than usual and could not come at a better time.
Goldman Sachs economists estimate that tax refunds will be 17% higher this year than they were last year. This means consumers could receive $50 billion more by the end of the month compared to last year.
The increase in fuel prices following the Iran War two months ago should provide a much-needed boost to the economy and consumers.
Last month, it appeared that consumers were already preparing to receive their refunds to cover the record rise in gas prices. The figures released on Tuesday show that retail sales rose more than expected in March.
The Atlanta Fed, citing this resilience, increased its GDPNow model's estimate of the first-quarter rate of growth from 0.9% to 1.2% annualized - the only upward revision for a whole month.
The upturn is small, but welcome. The consumer outlook at the beginning of the year was relatively bright. However, the Iran War has dimmed it significantly and forced growth forecasts be cut.
How long will any boost based on refunds last?
Consumer spending should be good in April. One-time, large refunds tend to be viewed as a discretionary income, and are therefore spent rather than saved.
This timeline means that the initial boost will fade as the energy prices continue to rise, forcing consumers into dipping into their savings.
SWALLOWING UP REBATES
Morgan Stanley's economists provide a sobering assessment. The average increase in refunds from tax will only be able to offset the gasoline price spike if this year's average pump prices are no higher than $3.60 a gallon. This figure is still above $4.00.
The pump will eat up the rebates if prices don't fall quickly. Oxford Economics predicts that consumer spending could grow at a slow pace in the second quarter despite the windfall of rebates, possibly dipping below 1 percent.
Goldman economists are also not optimistic that consumers will be able to endure higher gas prices before they cut back on their spending.
According to their baseline scenario, Brent crude will drop to $80 per barrel by the end of the year - from around $100 since the outbreak of the war on February 28 and $70 the previous day - causing a $70bn annualized hit to consumers. This headwind, at current prices is estimated to be $140 billion annually.
Not So Fast
Hold off calling for the U.S. consumers to capitulate just yet.
The average household's balance sheet is in good shape, particularly with equity prices showing such a?resilient? performance. The 'wealth effects' have been underestimated by those who predicted the end of the U.S. Consumer in recent years.
According to Motio Research, the real household income has reached its highest level since the series began in 2010. This excludes the pandemic-distorted 2020 year.
A consumer stress index, released by the Kearney Institute on Wednesday, shows that 37% U.S. consumers were stressed out about debt and saving in the first quarter. This is up from 10% at the end of the last year. One persistent trend over the past few years has been the huge disconnect between what consumers say they feel and how their anxiety affects their spending.
Lower income consumers are more vulnerable because they spend a greater?proportion of income on energy. They are only responsible for a small portion of total U.S. expenditure, so headline figures could remain strong despite the fact that large segments of population are in serious financial difficulty. The bumper tax refunds will delay the impact of higher fuel prices. But, as with all things in this crisis, the question is for how long.
Save the date: On April 23, at 1300 GMT/9 a.m. ET, ROI columnists Mike Dolan & Jamie McGeever, along with LSEG, will be hosting a webinar entitled "Markets Unpacked With Open Interest: Rethinking Safe Havens in Uncertain Times." Sign up here.
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(source: Reuters)