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Metalshub, an EU-funded agency, is working with Metalshub to create a European platform for critical minerals trading
Metalshub, a digital platform funded in part by the EU, and an agency that is partially funded by the EU are working on establishing regional critical mineral prices separate from those of dominant producer China to allow the financing of new projects. The European Union, United States, and other Western countries strive to set their own benchmark prices of critical minerals in order to reduce their dependency on China. China accounts for 90% of the global production of rare earths processed, which are vital for electronics, clean energy and defence. Bernd Schaefer said that "Europe lacks a deep, transparent, and EU-relevant benchmark for critical minerals...the lack of transparency is an absolute deal breaker" for many investors. A number of new mines and facilities that process minerals are struggling to get financing because the outlook is uncertain. Prices, which are set largely in China and fluctuate wildly, have been unpredictable. Metalshub, a privately-held German group, and the public-private partnership, EIT 'RawMaterials (with more than 300 companies and academics involved in the industry), are working together to expand Metalshub's platform. This includes adding spot trading for rare earths and critical minerals, and developing reliable price indices. Metalshub's Managing Director Frank Jackel stated that the company could technically launch trading right away, but it would need approval from regulators and policymakers. Schaefer declined to name the companies or provide feedback from those who were spoken to. Schaefer stated that they were aiming to have the pilot project running within 12 months. Metalshub provides trading services for raw materials such as nickel and alumina for the aluminium industry, materials that are used in steel production. It was also used to conduct online graphite and lithium auctions. Jackel stated that Metalshub can host transactions but an index of prices would be outsourced in order to maintain credibility and comply with regulatory frameworks. He said that the markets for critical minerals remain "fragmented and opaque" and are heavily dependent on bi-lateral negotiations and price assessments based on limited data collected manually. Schaefer stated that the EU demand aggregation platform launched last week for critical materials is not designed to set regional prices which are crucial to underpin local production. On April 13, the EU launched its Energy and Raw Materials Platform's section on critical minerals. The EU aims to link buyers and suppliers of 17 EU strategic materials, but it is up to the two parties to finalise any trades. Some have pointed out that there is little?liquidity outside of China in the critical minerals trade, but Schaefer and Jackel say that it's enough to set benchmark prices in Europe. Schaefer stated that there are currently enough data points in Europe from recent transactions to establish a representative price for rare earths, as an example. Schaefer and Jackel stated that the initiative would start in Europe but would include other Western nations. (Reporting and editing by Veronica Brown, Alexander Smith and Eric Onstad)
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Oil gains and stock prices rise as ceasefire is tested
Wall Street stocks rose on Wednesday after U.S. president Donald Trump unilaterally declared a ceasefire extension. Oil prices also increased as Iran broke the fragile truce and seized two cargo ships at the Strait of Hormuz. A broad rally lifted all three major U.S. stock indexes, while gold?advanced?and U.S. Treasury Yields dropped. "Things have slowed down a bit, so (investors can) focus on the economy for a while and not worry about the bombs that are flying in the Middle East," said Paul Nolte. He is a senior wealth advisor & Market Strategist at Murphy & Sylvest, located in Elmhurst. There's some concern about the fact that there is a ceasefire but that it hasn't been resolved. It only delays a decision." Iran's Revolutionary Guards seize two ships for maritime violations, just hours after Trump agreed that the ceasefire would be extended until?negotiations were concluded. The U.S. stock market, which was initially impacted by the war against Iran, has since recovered. Both the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq, have reached new highs in recent sessions. Geopolitical uncertainties persist and a prolonged period with high oil prices is a danger. According to transcripts, about two thirds of S&P 500 companies who have reported quarterly earnings in the last few months have expressed concern about energy prices. The first-quarter earnings season has begun amid high expectations. According to the latest LSEG data, analysts currently expect S&P 500 earnings growth of 14.4% year-on-year for the period January-March. The first quarter was before the Iran War. Nolte said, "I do not think that we will feel the full impact of the war on earnings until we receive second quarter reports next July." The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 364.21 or 0.75% to 49,513.59; the S&P 500 gained 59.43 or 0.84% to 7,123.44; and the Nasdaq Composite increased 283.12 or 1.17% to 24,543.08. The European share price was slightly lower after the extension of the U.S. - Iran truce. Middle East turmoil continued to affect markets, and investors weighed corporate earnings. Since the start of the conflict, dozens of international companies have announced price increases or withdrawn their guidance. MSCI's global stock index rose by 3.98 points or 0.37% to 1,070.44. The STOXX 600 pan-European index dropped 0.23% while the FTSEurofirst 300 broad index in Europe fell 6.06 points or 0.25%. Emerging market stocks dropped 8.34 points or 0.52% to 1,607.14. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan ended lower by 0.57% at 822.53, whereas Japan's Nikkei gained?236.69 or 0.40% to 59585.86. Amid lingering geopolitical concerns, the dollar edged higher against euro. The dollar index (which measures the greenback against a basket including the yen, the euro and other currencies) rose by 0.06% at 98.44. Meanwhile, the euro fell 0.11% to $1.1728. The dollar fell 0.09% against the Japanese yen to 159.23. Bitcoin gained 3.97%, reaching $78,750.99. Ethereum rose by 3.57%, to $2400.37. Investors remain cautious after the extension of the ceasefire. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes dropped 0.6 basis points from 4.292% to 4.286% late Tuesday. The 30-year bond rate fell 0.9 basis point to 4.8887%, from 4.898% on Tuesday. The 2-year bond yield, which is usually in line with expectations of interest rates for the Federal Reserve, increased 1.3 basis points from late Tuesday to 3.792%. The oil prices rose following reports of attacks against container ships in the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. crude climbed 2.09% to $91.54 per barrel while Brent rose 2.15% to $100.58 a barrel. The gold price rose as geopolitical uncertainty eased and the pressure to liquidate metals decreased. Gold spot rose by 0.45%, to $4.732.98 per ounce. U.S. Gold Futures increased 0.93% to $4.742.20 per ounce.
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Gold prices rise on the drop in Treasury yields and bargain-hunting
On?Wednesday, gold?rose about 1 percent after falling to a more than a week-low in the previous session. This was due to the fact that longer-dated U.S. Treasury rates fell as well as bargain-hunting as investors waited for a possible resume of U.S. - Iranian peace talks. By 9:42 am EDT (1342 GMT), spot gold had risen 0.8% to $4,749.61 an ounce after earlier rising 1%. It recorded its biggest daily loss on Tuesday since March 26. U.S. Gold Futures for June delivery rose 1% to $4 767.70. The gold price is experiencing a "bit of respite" as the rates on the curve have dropped and investors are hoping that Donald Trump's statements about the Strait of Hormuz will be resolved. Bart Melek is global head of commodity strategy for TD Securities. He said that the situation was very uncertain and tenuous. Iran seized on Wednesday two ships in the Strait of Hormuz which is responsible for 20% of world oil supplies, after U.S. president Donald Trump called off the attacks indefinitely so that Tehran could come up with an unified peace offer. Peace talks have not resumed. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rates fell by 0.24%. Jim Wyckoff is a senior analyst at Kitco Metals. He said that the precious metals market also exhibited a perception of bargain-hunting following Tuesday's losses. Since the beginning of 'the war' on February 28, gold prices have dropped by close to 11 percent, as rising oil costs have increased inflation fears. Higher interest rates reduce demand for non-yielding gold, which is often seen as a hedge against inflation. Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve's chief nominee, said that he made no promises about interest rate cuts to Trump on Tuesday. He was trying to reassure U.S. senators who were considering his confirmation. Silver spot rose 1.6%, to $77.92 an ounce. Platinum gained 2.1%, to $2,079.21. Palladium increased 1.5%, to $1,556.49. (Reporting by Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; Editing by Paul Simao)
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Chile's copper king faces an acid shortage as China exports dry-up
China's exports to Chile of sulphuric acids sank to zero in March according to Chinese 'customs' data. The world's largest 'copper-producing nation' is now facing a shortage of the chemical that's used to refine around half of it. China plans to ban exports of sulphuric acids from May, to avoid a shortage in its domestic market. This includes the fertilisers industry. The shipment of acid to Chile has already stopped. It was the biggest market for China's acid exports in 2025, and it accounted for almost one-third. Comparatively, China exported 31,870 tons of acid to Chile between February 2026, and 151 268 tons in March 2025. The smelting of copper ore produces sulphuric acid. It is also used in the production of refined copper through a process called leaching. HSBC reports that Chile imports 37% of its acid, which comes from China. HSBC reports that Chile relies on imports, 37% of which come from China. The relationship between China's smelters and mining companies has been strained in recent times due to the fact that ore supply is tight, which means treatment charges (the fees paid for processing ore) are heavily in favour of the miners. COPPER OUTPUT IS AT RISK Alexis Urbani is a sulphuric-acid trader at Incotrade Chile. This can have a direct impact on cathode production, particularly for operations that rely on lower-grade ore, which has a higher acid consumption. Morgan Stanley stated in a report this month that the Chinese ban on acid exports could threaten Chile's annual production of 1.1 million tonnes of leached copper. This is more than half of Chile's refined output of about 2 million tonne and one fifth of its total copper-contained production of 5.5 millions tons. The bank estimated that 20% of the acid used in Chilean copper leaching comes from China. China's total sulphuric exports in March remained steady on a month-to-month basis at 143381 tons, with shipment to the Philippines, India, and Indonesia all increasing sharply. Bold Baatar, a Rio Tinto co-owner and chief commercial officer of Chile's Escondida mine, said at a Wednesday conference that Chile is particularly vulnerable to fluctuations in supply. He said that Chile was the most vulnerable country in terms of importing sulphuric acids, as it has the most copper leached.
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Carney: Canada won't let the US dictate terms for USMCA review
Mark Carney, the Prime Minister of Canada, said that Canada would not allow the United States to dictate the terms for the scheduled review of United States-Mexico Canada trade treaty. Mexico has held two rounds with the United States regarding the'review' and its first formal round will be next month. Canada has not been given a date for the start of any discussions. The review is expected to be completed by July 1. Jean Charest, the former Quebec premier, who sits on Carney's panel to advise him on Canada-U.S. relations, said on Radio-Canada that Washington wanted "a lot of concessions" from Canada before negotiations began. "It is not the case that the United States dictates terms." Carney told reporters that we have a discussion, and can reach a mutually beneficial outcome. "It will take time", he said. Last year, President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Canada's?key imports. Canada responded by implementing countermeasures. Carney says that Trump's actions have forced Canada to diversify its trade and reduce its heavy dependence on the United States. Janice Charette said that Canada's chief trade negotiator, with the United States was not expecting all issues to be resolved by July 1. However, that does not mean that the North American Trade Agreement will collapse. (Reporting and editing by Hugh Lawson; David Ljunggren)
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Investors ask UK audit watchdog for a closer look at HSBC's climate accounting
A group of 'institutional investors' has asked Britain's accounting'regulator' to review HSBC 2025 accounts and 'audit' in order to gauge if the bank is correctly assessing the risks posed by the climate change. Investors also said that they lacked visibility into how HSBC’s auditor PwC verified the bank’s accounting. A letter sent to the Financial Reporting Council with copies to the Prudential Regulation Authority, the bank, and by revealed. The letter stated: "In view of the ongoing 'lack of disclosures' by HSBC, PwC and other firms on matters that we believe are material to investors' understanding the 'bank's capital resilience', we write to request the FRC review HSBC accounts and audits to determine if they'meet' the required standard." Sarasin & Partners was among the signatories, as were Merseyside pension fund, NEST workplace pension investor, and asset managers Edentree Investment Management & Lombard Odier Investment Management. A spokesperson for the FRC confirmed the letter was received, but stated that the "watchdog" would not be able to comment further. PwC refused to comment, and HSBC didn't immediately respond to a comment request. Accounting and finance experts, as well as investors, have long claimed that certain companies do not disclose the full risk associated with climate changes. HSBC's three most recent financial statements conclude that it will not be adversely affected by climate change in the short to medium term. Investors expressed concern that this could be "excessively optimistic" given the bank's exposure to physical risks like floods and fires, as well as transition risks, such as changing regulatory requirements. Investors said that they had been in contact with the audit committee chair and chief comptroller of the bank since 2023, but saw "little evidence"?of progress. The group stated that in discussions with the bank between 2025 and 2026, it asked the board to review its assessment of climate risks. It also requested the board'reflect these assumptions into critical accounting assumptions, and publish a sensitivity study based on more severe climate impacts. The letter stated that "at a time when climate instability is increasing and decarbonisation is accelerating in key industries, failure to account for possible losses or liabilities could put the capital of investors at risk." The group said that HSBC Chairman Brendan Nelson’s dual role as chair of audit committee posed a conflict of interest. It also welcomed a review on how financial institutions report climate change. (Reporting and editing by Simon Jessop, Kirstin Ridley)
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Copper prices rise after Trump extends Iran ceasefire
The price of copper rose on Wednesday, as President Donald Trump extended a ceasefire agreement with Iran. However, lingering uncertainty over the Middle East conflict limited gains. In official open-outcry trade, the benchmark?three-month?copper price on London Metal Exchange rose 0.3% to $13,270 per metric tonne. This month, the renewed premium in Comex copper over the LME benchmark has been a key feature of the copper markets for 2025. It encourages shipments to the United States. More copper is expected to flow into the United States. While the premium price persists until the end of July, a decision will be expected to be made on whether or not to impose tariffs. Kostas bintas is the global head for metals at the trade house Mercuria. Comex copper stocks Since mid-April, the number of metric tons has increased by 2%, to 544,887, which is close to February's record 545,867. After recent stockouts from LME registered warehouses in Asia, inventories on the LME system were 395,575 tonnes. Market participants at the Financial Times Commodities Global Summit held in Lausanne in Switzerland were bullish about copper over the long-term but warned of the risks to demand in the event of a prolonged conflict. According to Mercuria's top metals analyst, the global aluminum market is already experiencing "black swans" in supply due to disruptions caused by?the conflict. This is expected to lead to major shortages for this year. LME aluminium increased by 1.3% to $3,604.5 per ton. On April 16, the contract reached a record high of $3,672. Nickel rose by 0.8% to $18,370. This was supported by a forecast from an industry group that a global deficit is expected this year. Zinc rose 0.7% on the LME to $3.467. Lead fell 0.6% at $1.951 while tin increased 0.5% at $50.175. (Reporting and editing by Sonia Cheema, Diti Pjara).
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Morgan Stanley says that the gaming industry could make $22 billion on AI-driven cost reductions.
Morgan Stanley analysts stated that advanced artificial intelligence tools can 'help reduce video game development costs by nearly half and unlock about $22 billion per year in profits for game makers around the world. In a note published on Tuesday, the brokerage stated that AI tools could be used to automate tasks such as creating game environments, generating dialog and testing software. This would help reduce production times and costs and increase margins. It added that gains will not be distributed equally across the gaming industry. Wall Street brokerage estimates that global consumer spending will reach $275 billion in video games this year. Of this amount, approximately 20% or $55 billion is expected to be reinvested into game development and operation. Morgan Stanley said that game development, which is typically expensive and labor-intensive, could become leaner if AI allows smaller teams to work together and for faster post-launch improvement. Take-Two Interactive’s Grand Theft Auto VI is an example of how modern games are developed. This is one of the most anticipated titles in the industry. It has been?developed from around 2018 and is scheduled for release in November. After multiple delays, the game is now scheduled to launch in 2026. The brokerage stated that "we see value in concentrating on scaled platforms and discovering, especially among companies with proprietary IP and data and those who have live operations." The biggest beneficiaries could be those who have control over distribution, data and "engagement." Morgan Stanley said that operators and gaming platforms such as Tencent, Sony, and Roblox, along with large publishers like Take-Two and Electronic Arts, who have the ability to implement AI in multiple titles, may also benefit. AI will lower the cost of making mid-scale games, which will encourage more competition. The brokerage stated that "game engines like Unity and Unreal Engine?face a binary outcome: adapt, or be disrupted." AI can boost revenues beyond cost savings. It could do this by keeping gamers engaged for longer and increasing spending on in-game purchases, add-ons, and subscriptions. The brokerage suggested that instead of focusing on new releases, publishers should focus on upgrading existing franchises with AI-driven content. This would cushion the financial impact. (Reporting and editing by Diti Pjara in Bengaluru, Siddarth Singh in Bengaluru)
ROI-Bumper US tax refunds soften energy blow. McGeever: But not for much longer
Tax deadlines in the U.S., such as April 15, are often met with both anticipation and dread -- the "administrative grind" of filing and the possibility of a windfall refund. This year's refund may be much larger than usual and could not come at a better time.
Goldman Sachs economists estimate that tax refunds will be 17% higher this year than they were last year. This means consumers could receive $50 billion more by the end of the month compared to last year.
The increase in fuel prices following the Iran War two months ago should provide a much-needed boost to the economy and consumers.
Last month, it appeared that consumers were already preparing to receive their refunds to cover the record rise in gas prices. The figures released on Tuesday show that retail sales rose more than expected in March.
The Atlanta Fed, citing this resilience, increased its GDPNow model's estimate of the first-quarter rate of growth from 0.9% to 1.2% annualized - the only upward revision for a whole month.
The upturn is small, but welcome. The consumer outlook at the beginning of the year was relatively bright. However, the Iran War has dimmed it significantly and forced growth forecasts be cut.
How long will any boost based on refunds last?
Consumer spending should be good in April. One-time, large refunds tend to be viewed as a discretionary income, and are therefore spent rather than saved.
This timeline means that the initial boost will fade as the energy prices continue to rise, forcing consumers into dipping into their savings.
SWALLOWING UP REBATES
Morgan Stanley's economists provide a sobering assessment. The average increase in refunds from tax will only be able to offset the gasoline price spike if this year's average pump prices are no higher than $3.60 a gallon. This figure is still above $4.00.
The pump will eat up the rebates if prices don't fall quickly. Oxford Economics predicts that consumer spending could grow at a slow pace in the second quarter despite the windfall of rebates, possibly dipping below 1 percent.
Goldman economists are also not optimistic that consumers will be able to endure higher gas prices before they cut back on their spending.
According to their baseline scenario, Brent crude will drop to $80 per barrel by the end of the year - from around $100 since the outbreak of the war on February 28 and $70 the previous day - causing a $70bn annualized hit to consumers. This headwind, at current prices is estimated to be $140 billion annually.
Not So Fast
Hold off calling for the U.S. consumers to capitulate just yet.
The average household's balance sheet is in good shape, particularly with equity prices showing such a?resilient? performance. The 'wealth effects' have been underestimated by those who predicted the end of the U.S. Consumer in recent years.
According to Motio Research, the real household income has reached its highest level since the series began in 2010. This excludes the pandemic-distorted 2020 year.
A consumer stress index, released by the Kearney Institute on Wednesday, shows that 37% U.S. consumers were stressed out about debt and saving in the first quarter. This is up from 10% at the end of the last year. One persistent trend over the past few years has been the huge disconnect between what consumers say they feel and how their anxiety affects their spending.
Lower income consumers are more vulnerable because they spend a greater?proportion of income on energy. They are only responsible for a small portion of total U.S. expenditure, so headline figures could remain strong despite the fact that large segments of population are in serious financial difficulty. The bumper tax refunds will delay the impact of higher fuel prices. But, as with all things in this crisis, the question is for how long.
Save the date: On April 23, at 1300 GMT/9 a.m. ET, ROI columnists Mike Dolan & Jamie McGeever, along with LSEG, will be hosting a webinar entitled "Markets Unpacked With Open Interest: Rethinking Safe Havens in Uncertain Times." Sign up here.
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(source: Reuters)