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Reports of a 15-point ceasefire proposal sparks hopes for oil to fall
The oil prices fell by about 5% after it was reported that the United States sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the war. This prompted a 'talk' of progress towards a ceasefire, despite Israel and Iran trading airstrikes. Brent crude futures were down $5.66 or 5.42% to $98.83 per barrel at 1022 GMT after having fallen as low as $97.57. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures were down by $4.82 or 5.22% at $87.53 after falling as low as $86.72. Both benchmarks gained nearly 5% Tuesday before losing some of their gains in the volatile trading that followed settlement. While oil prices were falling on the prospect that a ceasefire would be reached, PVM Oil Associates analyst?Tamas Vaga pointed out that reports had been made of U.S. troops being deployed in the Middle East. U.S. president Donald Trump stated on Tuesday that the U.S. is making progress in negotiations to end the war. A source confirmed Washington has sent Iran the 15 point proposal. Some analysts were, however, sceptical about the progress of these talks and expected markets to remain volatile. According to the BBC, if Iran continues to pose a threat in Hormuz, the world may face years with oil prices between $100 and $150 per barrel. Larry Fink, CEO of Blackrock, one of the largest asset managers in the world, said this. Fink replied, "We'll have a global recession" when asked what would happen if oil stays at $150. OIL SHIPMENTS VIA HORMUD ARE LARGELY?HALTED Priyanka Sackdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, said that Middle East developments will remain "the dominant price driver", keeping oil prices in a range of movements in the short term. The war has almost completely stopped shipments of gas and oil through the Strait. This is a route that typically transports about a fifth of the world’s crude and gas supply. The International Energy Agency called it the largest oil supply disruption ever. After 25 days, the global supply has been reduced by 500 million barrels or five full days. "The outlook for the market remains tight, despite the prospect of a war-off-ramp", said Saul Kavonic. He is head of MST Marquee's energy research. He stated that even if the flow through the strait resumes, "it is not clear whether all production shut down will resume until more clarity is gained on 'the durability of a ceasefire. According to a Tuesday note, Iran told the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and the International Maritime Organization (IMO) that "nonhostile vessels" could transit the Strait of Hormuz if coordinated with Iranian authorities. Shipping data revealed that to offset the disruptions caused by the Hormuz war, Saudi Arabia's Red Sea Yanbu Port saw oil exports rise last week from 1.4 million barrels a day to almost 4 million. This is a significant increase over the levels before the outbreak of the conflict. Two sources said that the Russian Baltic ports of Primorsk, and Ust-Luga - major 'export terminals' - suspended crude oil and?products?loadings on Wednesday, after Ukrainian drone strikes sparked an?inferno? which could be seen in Finland. The strike was the biggest against Russia's oil-export facilities during the four-year conflict and will increase the level of uncertainty on the oil market. Reporting by Seher DAREEN in London, Yuka OBAYASHI in Tokyo, and Trixie YAP in Singapore. Editing by Jamie Freed Bernadette BAUME and Jason Neely.
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Copper prices stabilize on stronger demand and talk of an Iranian ceasefire
The copper price jumped on Wednesday, after the U.S. reported that it was seeking a ceasefire during the Iran War and because of a stronger Chinese demand. However, the market remained cautious -after Tehran denied any negotiations. The benchmark three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange rose 1.3% at 1030 GMT to $12,257 a metric ton, after falling by 0.6% the previous session. Ole Hansen is the head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, in Copenhagen. Israel and Iran exchanged strikes on Wednesday after the Iranian military rejected the assertion by President Donald Trump that the U.S. is in negotiations to end this war. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract snapped a two session losing streak and ended daytime trading up 1.1%, at 95,590?yuan? ($13,864.67) a ton. Prices were also supported by signs of improved physical demand from China, the world's largest metal consumer. Hansen said that the pent-up demands are now coming back to these lower prices, which will help stabilize prices over time. The next battle could take place at the $12,500 technical level. Inventory data showed that stocks in SHFE registered warehouses dropped by 5.2% in the last week for the first time this year. The Yangshan Copper Premium, a measure of China's appetite for importing copper, soared by 33% on Wednesday to $69 per ton, the highest since June last. Aluminium was the only LME Metal in?negative terrain, with a 0.7% decline to $3,236.50 per ton. After the beginning of the conflict, the price of lightweight metals used in transport, packaging, and construction jumped due to supply concerns. The Gulf is a major producer. However, a 'potential end of war' could ease those fears. Other metals include LME zinc, which rose 0.2% to $3.046.50 per ton. Nickel climbed 3.1% to $17.475, while lead gained 0.8% at $1.907.50, and tin grew 1% to $44,675. (1 US dollar = 6.8945 Chinese Yuan) (Reporting and editing by Alexander Smith; Eric Onstad)
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Mitsubishi Materials will end certain Onahama smelter activities by March 2027
Mitsubishi Materials announced on Wednesday that it would stop processing copper concentrate at its Onahama facility - and all related smelting operations - by the end of March 2027. Mitsubishi Materials stated that the outlook for business was becoming more uncertain due to an intensifying competition with overseas smelters, and a steep decline in treatment and refinement charges (TC/RCs). It is expected to book an impairment loss of 132 million yen (21 billion yen) in the fourth quarter of this year's financial year, which ends on the end of this month. This loss will be mainly due to the fixed assets of the smelter. Fees paid by miner to refine concentrate, known as TC/RCs (Transfer Charges/Refined Metals), are under pressure due to the rapid expansion of global smelting capacities, led by China. This has squeezed margins. Mitsubishi Materials, as part of its structural overhaul, decided to stop concentrate processing at the plant that has been operating since 1965. The Electrolytic Plant will continue to refine scrap copper anodes as well as anodes produced by the group. The 'platinum group' metals recycling plant, as well as the foundry that produces copper ingots will continue to operate. The smelting margins of Japanese copper smelters have been shrinking as TC/RCs are in a downward spiral. JX Advanced Metals, its partners and Mitsubishi Materials announced in November that they planned to integrate Mitsubishi Material's copper concentrats procurement, as well as copper product sales, into Pan Pacific Copper. ($1 =159.0300yen) (Reporting and editing by Christian Schmollinger, Alexander Smith).
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BBC reports that BlackRock CEO Fink has warned of a 'global economic recession' should oil reach $150.
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink stated that oil prices could rise to $150 per barrel and cause a global recession if Iran "remains" a threat even after the end of the war. Fink said on BBC's Big Boss Interview podcast published on Wednesday that "we could have years of oil above $100, closer to $150, which would have profound implications for the economy." When asked what would happen if oil stayed at $150 per barrel, he replied: "We'll have a global recession." Since the U.S. and Israeli war against?Iran started, oil prices have been volatile and sharply risen. Prices fell about 4% Wednesday following reports that the U.S. sent Iran a 15 point proposal to end 'the war,' raising hopes of a possible ceasefire. The Strait of Hormuz is the main route for?oil, gas, and crude oil shipments. It carries one-fifth of global gas and oil supplies.
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Minutes of the March decision show that Swedish rates will remain at 1.75%
The minutes from the most recent meeting of the Riksbank on monetary policy showed that the future is uncertain. Erik Thedeen, Governor of the Riksbank, said that it was difficult to assess?the effects? of war but warned of the dangers of stagflation (higher inflation and lower growth). Thedeen stated in the minutes that "given the length of time the crisis has been going on and the effects already being felt by the energy infrastructure, I am concerned about the long-term impact this may have on the supply of oil and natural gas in the world." On March 19, the Riksbank maintained its policy rate at 1.75 %. Central banks are trying to gauge the impact of U.S. Tariffs, the Ukraine War and AI adoption in countries that still haven't gotten over their pandemic hangovers. "In this case, it's important to not act too quickly and then have to?make a U-turn or?to fall behind and be late," Riksbank Vice Governor Per Jansson said. He added, "For the moment, everyone is in agreement that a wait-and see?approach would be the best approach."
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Valero is preparing to restart Port Arthur oil refinery in Texas after the blast, according to sources
Valero Energy Corporation is preparing to restart the 380,000 barrels-per-day (bpd),?Port Arthur oil refinery in Texas this week. The plant was shut down on Tuesday following a blaze and explosion the day before. Sources said that workers were blocking pipelines feeding the damaged 47,000 bpd Unit 243 Diesel Hydrotreater on early Wednesday morning. They added that the shutdown was necessary to put out the fire that started on Tuesday. In a regulatory filing, Valero stated that no injuries had been reported from the explosion, which was triggered by the release of process fluid on unit 243. The explosion could be felt up to 18 km away from the plant, which is located in east Texas near the Louisiana border. The 'outage' comes at a time when refining margins are high due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz (by Iran) amid the conflict that has impacted the Middle East region. This has led to a significant reduction in supply of refined products. Sources said that once the feed lines for unit 243 are blocked, Valero would return natural gas to plant, and light the safety flare system and boilers in order to generate steam to drive utilities and heat production units. Once 14 other production units are back to operating temperatures, feedstock can be introduced and the process will begin of getting output to specifications. Refinery production will be brought to planned levels as close as possible to maximum capacity. In compliance with U.S. Environmental Rules, hydrotreaters remove sulfur during production using?hydrogen. (Reporting and editing by Christian Schmollinger, Bernadettebaum and Erwin Seba)
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Russian attacks knockout power to thousands of Ukraine's north
Two?energy?facilities in Ukraine's Chernihiv Region were damaged by Russian attacks, leaving?212,000 customers without?power. A?regional?electricity distribution company? said on Wednesday. Chernihivoblenergo reported that nearly 150,000 customers in the city and surrounding districts of Chernihiv were without electricity after a Russian airstrike damaged an energy plant in?the Chernihiv District. After the attack on the Nizhynskyi District energy facility, it was later revealed that another 62,000 consumers were left without electricity in three other districts of the?region. Ukraine's air force said that Russia launched 147 drones against the country overnight. Of these, 121 were neutralised or downed. Russia has targeted Ukrainian energy installations throughout the war. This has caused regular blackouts lasting hours across the entire country. Ukraine has also attacked Russia's energy infrastructure, including oil refineries and depots, as well as?transport terminals. Chernihiv suffered from power outages during the winter, as Russia launched its largest bombing campaign in the four-year conflict against Ukraine's electricity grid. A previous attack on the area left many areas without electricity on Saturday. The regional governor said on Telegram that close to 21,000 residents in the town of Slavutych (in the Kyiv region) were also temporarily without power after an attack early this morning. The governor said that backup power has been installed for critical infrastructure.
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Copper rebounds on softer dollar, Middle East de-escalation hopes
Prices of copper rose on Wednesday as a weaker dollar and renewed hope for a 'de-escalation' in the Middle East war helped to boost?demand? prospects. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract ended daytime trading up 1.14%, at 95,590 Yuan ($13.864.67) per ton. As of 0722 GMT, the benchmark three-month copper price on London Metal Exchange rose 1.19% to $12,244.5 per tonne. Both copper prices in Shanghai and London 'lost ground' on Tuesday, as rising energy prices and a protracted Iran war heightened concerns about inflation and global economic growth. The market sentiment improved significantly on Wednesday after U.S. president Donald Trump stated that the U.S. is'making progress' in its efforts to negotiate an end of the war with Iran. This includes winning an important concession by Tehran, without providing details. Iran, however, has rejected Trump's remarks, saying that the U.S. is negotiating with themselves. The expectation of a deescalation in tensions between the U.S. "The expectation of a de-escalation between the?U.S. It highlights the market's vulnerability due to geopolitical shifts, but a lot of uncertainty remains regarding U.S. - Iran negotiations. The base metals complex also received a boost from a softer dollar, which made dollar-priced goods cheaper for buyers who used 'other currencies. SHFE aluminium gained 0.63%. Nickel gained 1.08%. Lead advanced 0.3%. Tin climbed 1.91%. Zinc?edged downwards by 0.28%. Nickel rose by 2.06% among other LME metals, while lead gained 0.5%. Tin grew by 0.64%. Zinc advanced 0.74%. Aluminium fell 0.41%.
Gulf States tell UN that Iranian strikes are an 'existential danger'
On Wednesday, Gulf Arab'states' told the U.N.?Human?Rights?Council that Iran poses an existential danger to them. They also condemned Iranian attacks against their infrastructure which could be considered war crimes by the U.N. rights head.
The U.S. and Israeli war against Iran, which has been ongoing for nearly a month now, has led to a large-scale Iranian response in the form of missile and drone strikes on civilian and energy infrastructure in Gulf states. These attacks have killed 'civilians' and pushed up oil prices.
This aggressive approach undermines international law and sovereignty, said Kuwait's ambassador Naser Abdullah H. M. Alhayen to the Geneva-based council. Kuwait's Ambassador Naser Abdullah M. Alhayen said that this aggressive approach undermines international law and sovereignty. The other Gulf states have also condemned Iran's actions, which they claim are designed to spread terror.
The 47 member countries will vote on the motion that condemns Iran's attacks, asks Iran to pay reparations and requests the U.N. chief of rights to monitor the situation.
Iran has defended their actions by claiming that more than 1,500 people have been killed so far in U.S. and Israeli strikes. Ali Bahreini said, "We fight for all of you, against an enemy who, if restrained today, would be beyond containment by tomorrow."
Iran has called for its own emergency meeting on Friday to discuss a deadly strike at a primary-school.
Volker Turk, the top UN rights official, called on states to stop the Iran conflict. He described the situation as dangerous and unpredictable.
He said, "This conflict has the power to ensnare nations across borders and around the world."
Attacks on civilians or civilian infrastructures must stop. These attacks could be considered war crimes if they are planned. Reporting by Emma Farge. Editing by Miranda Murray and William Maclean.
(source: Reuters)