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Ugandans vote in tense elections seen as a test of Museveni’s strength
Ugandans took part in a tense, national election on Thursday. This was after a violent campaign that shut down the internet to curb what the government termed "misinformation". President Yoweri Mueveni wanted to extend his rule for a fifth decade. Museveni will likely be able to defeat the challenge of popular singer "Bobi Wine", but this election is also a test for his political strength, and the ability to prevent the unrest which has ravaged neighbouring countries Kenya and Tanzania. Even as speculation about his succession swirls, the long-time leader campaigned under the slogan "protecting gains" and promised to maintain peace in the country while lifting it into the middle income category. Wine, 43, a pop star who is nicknamed "Ghetto president" because of his humble beginnings, has pledged to end Museveni's dictatorship and appealed to angry young people about the lack of economic opportunities in a nation where the average population age is barely over 16. The polls were opened in Kampala, the capital city amid heavy police presence. The authorities Cut internet access On Tuesday, mobile?access was limited across the country. Ronald Tenwa (45), a university researcher who voted in Kasangati, said that politicians "cling to their positions for a very long time". He said that if he voted for "someone who is caring, Uganda will benefit," without naming the person for whom he would be voting. HUNDREDS Arrested, at LEAST one killed At least one person has been killed and hundreds arrested at Wine's events by security forces. Museveni’s government defended security forces’ actions as a justifiable response to what they called lawless behavior by “opposition supporters”. Last week, the U.N. Human Rights Office stated that elections were taking place in a climate of "widespread intimidation and repression". Museveni, Africa's third longest-serving leader of state, is being challenged by six other opposition candidates. The voters will also elect more than 500 parliamentarians. The polls will close at 4:00 pm (1300 GMT), and the results are expected within 48 hours. MUSEVENI IS AN STRATEGIC FRIEND OF THE WEST Museveni was at the forefront of a revolt in 1986 that brought him to power. Political analysts claim that he has altered the constitution twice, removing age and term limitations. His dominance over Ugandan institutions also means that there are few chances of an upset in an upcoming election. As president, he positioned Uganda to be a strategic partner for Western nations. He sent troops into regional hotspots such as Somalia, and took millions of refugees. The economic growth traditionally dependent on agriculture and tourism is expected to reach double digits once crude oil production begins this year at fields operated by France's TotalEnergies, and China's CNOOC. Museveni's government has been accused of human rights violations and unfair elections. The United States has denounced Wine's last victory in 2021, in which he won with 58% of votes, as not being fair or free. Security forces killed over 50 opposition supporters in the run-up to this vote. It is unlikely that the Trump administration will make similar criticisms this time, after instructing U.S. diplomats in July to refrain from commenting on foreign elections. FOCUS ON PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESSFUL Museveni's son, Muhoozi Kaineruaba, is believed by many to be his preferred successor. However, the president denies grooming his son for the position. Analysts say that Kainerugaba has declared openly his presidential ambitions. He is a social media star who regularly posts threats of violence towards opposition leaders. However, his status as the heir apparent within the ruling party is not widely accepted. Juliet Zawedde (18 years old) a Kampala first-time voter said that any succession should be democratic. She said, "In Africa too many government officials promote their relatives." They need to give others a chance." Reporting by Ammu Kanampilly, Kampala; writing by Vincent Mumo Nzilani and editing by Aaron Ross Philippa Fletcher Michael Perry
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ROI-Resurgent London Metal Exchange rides speculative tsunami: Andy Home
London Metal Exchange (LME), a venerable institution of 149 years, posted record trading volume last year. This is a remarkable turnaround from the dark days four years ago when the nickel crisis was at its height. Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, which owns the London market, has reaped the benefits of the physical market turmoil that has marked Donald Trump's term as president. The funds finally arrived. In the fourth quarter, a 'flood' of speculative purchases washed over the LME base-metals complex. The average daily volume of 777.016 contracts during the last three months of 2025 was a quarterly record. It surpassed the previous high of 735.604 contracts set in the second quarter 2014. LME Futures Open Interest ended the year at a 15% increase compared to 2024, and its highest level since early-2021. Retail investors in the U.S. flooded into CME's smaller contracts of copper. TARIFF BOOST Import tariffs in the United States, which are in effect in the case aluminium, and could be in place in the event of copper, has had a major impact on the physical flow of metals around the globe. The copper supply chain is still being ripped out to be sent to the United States. As the market (again), bets on a Trump tax on imported refined metal. In June, a decision is expected. LME copper trading accelerated in February when Trump launched his investigation into U.S. imports of copper. The average daily volume increased by 12% between 2025 and 2024. CME's flagship contract for copper, on the other hand, saw a 33% drop in activity, as investors were scared by the unprecedented volatility of arbitrage prices with London. The U.S. exchange benefited from the disruption in the aluminum market that followed the increase in U.S. tariffs on imports to 50%. CME contracts for physical aluminum premiums in the Midwest U.S.A. and Europe recorded record volumes last Year with an annual growth of 47% & 72% respectively. Return of the Funds While institutional investors remain wary of the CME Copper Contract, they have been flooding the LME ever since September. The red-hot precious-metals sector has sparked renewed interest in base metals. But money is also being drawn by the record-breaking run of copper and the strong rally in all LME metals except lead. LME trading experienced a dramatic change during the fourth-quarter due to the renewed enthusiasm for metals. The copper and tin volume were at their highest levels since 2013 and 2014. Nickel posted its second best quarterly volume ever, while lead activity reached new highs. LME nickel trading was at its highest level since 2019 last year, indicating a return to confidence in the London Market after the crisis of 2022. It seems that most funds have forgiven LME for cancelling nickel transactions, a controversial move which was upheld in the British High Court. SHANGHAI GETS GRAPPED BY METAL FEVER In December, the metals mania spread to China. Shanghai's market had been a slow one up to that point, with volumes of base metal futures down across the board. In the last month 2025, Chinese investors joined in on the bull market. The Shanghai copper contract saw the most activity since November 2015, while the aluminium volumes were at their highest level in three years. Nickel turnover was also the highest it has been in four years. The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, a state-backed organization, warned against blindly following a "unreasonable price rally" and a record 9 million tonnes of tin were traded in December. No one has really paid attention. On Tuesday, the Shanghai tin exchange reached a turnover of?739,000 tonnes. This is equivalent to 2 years of global consumption. Going Small in the US Shanghai is renowned for its speculative excesses, which are driven by a large army of retail investors who try to catch the next big market movement. London has no comparable market, as very few individuals have the wealth to meet the credit thresholds required for direct LME trading. There are signs that some speculators have started to participate in the CME's trading, but not on the main copper contract, but on smaller retail-oriented products. Volumes of the CME micro-copper contract, which is only 2,500 lb in size, grew 20% annually to reach almost four million tons by 2025. CME copper "events options"?which offer a simple binary bet on the price underlying, registered turnover in December of 31,000 tons, which is more than the total traded for the entire year of 2024. Both contracts were launched in 2022 and seem to serve as a bridge to allow retail investors to move from precious metals to industrial metals. China's CNMIA is right to be concerned about excessive speculation in commodity markets that were once fringe, such as tin. However, the bull story around industrial metals has attracted more and more people to the cause. Andy Home is an author and columnist. The opinions expressed in this column are Andy Home's. Open Interest (ROI), a data-driven, thought-provoking commentary on the markets and finance. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X.
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Gold demand falls as profit-taking and a softer geopolitical climate hit the safe-haven market
The price of gold fell on Thursday, as investors took profits after the yellow metal had hit a new record the previous day. A softer tone by U.S. president Donald Trump towards the Federal Reserve Chair and Iran also dampened demand for safe havens. As of 0501 GMT, spot gold was down by 0.7% to $4,589.71 an ounce. The previous session saw bullion reach a record of $4,642.72. U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery fell by 0.9% to $4,594.10. "Today we are seeing gold down a little bit, after (Trump said) maybe we won't?intervene with Iran, staving-off safe-haven demands, but the bigger story (of metal's rising) is not going anywhere," said Ilya Spivak. He is the head of global macro for Tastylive. Iran's leaders, desperate to quell the worst domestic unrest since 1979, threatened U.S. bases in the area in order to counter Trump's repeated threats for military intervention. Trump, at the White House, suggested that he would be adopting an "await-and-see" attitude toward the crisis. The president stated on Wednesday that, despite the Justice Department's criminal investigation into Powell, he had no plans to fire him. However, it was still "too soon" to determine what he will do in the end. Later in the day the U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims for the First Week of January are released. This could give clues about the Fed's monetary policies. The traders expect two interest rate cuts in 2019. Gold is traditionally favored by low interest rates, economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Silver spot fell 5.5%, to $87.62 an ounce, after reaching a session high of $93.57. Spot platinum fell 3.3% to a new high of $2,305.90 an ounce after reaching a record $2,478.50 peak on December 29. Palladium fell 2.6% per ounce to $1,778.80 and was hovering near a week-low. Ishaan arora, Bengaluru. Sherry Jacob Phillips and Harikrishnan Nair edited the story.
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Microsoft signs record-breaking deal with soil carbon credits to boost data centres
Microsoft and Indigo Carbon have agreed to purchase a record amount of?2,85 million soil carbon credits related to regenerative farming in the United States. The tech giant is aiming to be "carbon-negative" by 2030, despite the rising emissions associated with AI. Microsoft, the world's largest buyer of carbon credits, did not reveal the price of the 12-year deal. However, someone with knowledge of it said that the credits Indigo Carbon sells are priced between $60 and $80 per ton, which would put the value of the deal anywhere from $171 million to $228 million. Regenerative farming includes a variety of practices such as reducing tilling and using cover crops to help the soil capture carbon emissions that damage the climate. Market data firm Sylvera reported that it saw an increase in the demand for these credits last year. This included a deal by Microsoft to purchase 2.6 million credits through Agoro Carbon. Agoro Carbon previously held the record as 'the largest deal. In an interview, Meredith Reisfield told us that the project would help Indigo solidify its reputation as a leader in high-integrity credits. She added that farmers also receive 75% of the weighted average cost of a given credit or crop year. In a recent press release, Phillip Goodman said that Microsoft was excited about Indigo's approach to regenerative farming. It delivers measurable results by providing verified credits and payments for growers. Microsoft's commitment to being a?carbon-negative company means that it will remove more carbon from the atmosphere than its global operations emit. Companies can buy credits on the voluntary carbon market to offset their emissions. Indigo works with farmers to identify areas where emissions can either be reduced or eliminated, and then develops projects and sells credits. Scientists agree that carbon removal projects are vital to slowing global warming. They say they can do this by offsetting the emissions of industries such as power production, which continue to burn fossil fuels. The removal of credits can be a distraction from reducing emissions, say skeptics.
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China's hot metal production falls as iron ore declines
Iron ore futures fell on Thursday, as hot metal production in the top buyer of iron ore,?China, dropped amid a slow return to production following the New Year holiday. The May contract for iron ore, the most traded on?China's Dalian Commodity Exchange(DCE), closed morning trade at 813 Yuan ($116.64) per metric ton. The price of iron ore touched its lowest level since January 9, at 812 Yuan, earlier in the day. The benchmark iron ore for February on the Singapore Exchange fell 0.79% to $107.2 per ton, after reaching its lowest level since January 7, at $106.95. Shanghai Metals Market data released on Thursday shows that hot?metal production fell by 0.26% from the previous week as some steel mills took a long time to restart after the New Year holidays. Other steel mills carried out annual planned maintenance?after the new year. SMM data published on January 14 revealed that production had declined by 2,035 million tons over the past week. SMM reported that portside spot cargo trades were also slow as traders and steelmills were cautious about stocking up cargoes past the essential Lunar New Year replenishment. Inventory buildups and supply pressures limited the 'upside room' for ore price. The market was supported by data showing China's record monthly exports of steel in December. In a recent note, ANZ Research stated that "strong global demand is offsetting weak domestic 'demand. Prices are also expected to be pushed up by record iron ore imports and an increase in the shipments of ore to China. Coking coal and coke, which are used to make steel, also lost ground. They fell by 2.17% and 1.4 %, respectively. The Shanghai Futures Exchange steel benchmarks were mixed. Hot-rolled coil and rebar both declined by 0.79%. Wire rod, however, gained 0.09%. Stainless steel also firmed up 2.51%. ($1 = 6.9699 Chinese yuan) (Reporting by Ruth Chai; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)
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Formosa Petrochemical prolongs Taiwan cracker shut down due to low margins
Formosa Petrochemical Corp. (FPCC), Taiwan’s largest private refiner will extend the shut-down of the oldest cracker indefinitely at its Mailiao Complex, a spokesperson for the company said on 'Wednesday. The company is reducing ethylene production due to low margins. The number. The FPCC spokesperson KY Li told that the No.1 cracker with a capacity 700,000 metric tonnes per year will be?shutdown indefinitely. The plant has been closed since September 2025. Records from the last three years show that this would be the very first time in history that FPCC had shut down a cracker for longer than a full year. The shutdown will reduce FPCC's ethylene production by almost a quarter, and also cut?some of the imports for petrochemicals feedstocks such as naphtha or liquefied petrol gas. Formosa, according to Kpler ship tracking data, is one of the biggest buyers in Asia. It imported 37.5 million barrels per year over the last three years. FPCC has announced its plan to reduce petrochemical production, as many other producers have closed plants due to oversupply, poor margins and a lack of demand. Shutdowns FPCC also plans to shut down?its 1.035 mtpy No. For a few months, FPCC will shut down its No. 2 cracker (1.035 million tpy) while increasing the operating rates of its 1.3-million-tpy No. Lin stated that the 3 cracker would be at 100%. Both units are currently operating at 70-75% of their maximum capacity. The combined capacity of all three crackers is 2.935 millions tpy ethylene. This is a key building block in the production of plastic derivatives. Lin said that the company will shut down the No. 3 cracker in August for maintenance. Lin stated that the company plans to shut down the?No. The cracker is being retrofitted so that it can process cheaper ethane feedstock starting in 2027. Formosa Plastics' parent company, FPCC, said in a recent filing that the loss for 2025 has widened from T$1.23 billion to T$10.05?billion (318 million), compared with a loss of T$1.23 billion a year earlier. FPCC reported a 1.2% drop in its operating revenue 2025 for its naphtha-cracking business due to lower petrochemical costs. Amy Yu, senior analyst at ICIS, an international petrochemical price agency, said: "Given the projected imbalance between supply and demand in the ethylene industry from 2026 to 2029, it is essential that Taiwan immediately initiate capacity consolidation. This will improve efficiency and resolve issues of overcapacity." South Korea will overhaul its industry by reducing ethylene production up to 37,000,000 tons per year. (Reporting and additional reporting by Mohi Nairayan; editing by Florence Tan, Thomas Derpinghaus).
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Indonesia takes action against those who fail to pay forest fines
Indonesia's military-backed task force for forestry has threatened to take legal action against dozens plantation and mining companies that refuse to pay heavy fines for operating in areas of?forest authorities consider illegal. Since last year, the 'unprecedented' crackdown on oil palm mines and plantations has unnerved industry. It boosted global palm prices out of fear that it would affect production. More recently, metal prices - like tin - have risen. Barita Simanjuntak, spokesperson for the task force, said that if companies continue to object or fail to appear at summons, or continue to engage in unauthorised activities within forest areas, they will be subjected to more aggressive legal actions to protect the sovereignty of the state. In a statement released on Wednesday, the 'task force' claimed to have taken over 8,800 ha (21,800 acres), which is roughly the same size as the Netherlands. The mining areas produce?items like nickel, coal and quartz sand, and palm plantations cover 4.1 miilion acres (10.1 mil acres), or about the same size as the Netherlands. It said that 25 out of 32 mining?companies, and 29 of 83 plantation companies summoned to pay a fine had objected, refused to attend, or "sought to reschedule", without identifying any of the companies. The task force said that seven mining companies and 54 palm oil companies had paid or agreed to fines totaling 9.3 trillion Rupiah (552 million dollars) Sanitiar?Burhanuddin said that authorities have assessed potential fines of 109.6 billion rupiah (for palm oil companies) and 32.63 billion rupiah (for mining companies), for their operations in forests. Attorney General Sanitiar was one of the heads of the taskforce set up by Prabowo Subianto last year. $1 = 16,855,0000 rupiah (Reporting and editing by Clarence Fernandez; Gayatri Suryo)
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Gold demand falls as profit-taking and a softer geopolitical climate hit the safe-haven market
Gold fell?on Friday as investors booked profits following three consecutive sessions of record highs. Meanwhile, an apparent softer tone by U.S. president Donald Trump towards the Federal Reserve Chair and Iran dampened demand for safe-haven bullion. As of 0322 GMT, spot gold was down by 0.8%, at $4,584.03 an ounce. The previous session saw bullion reach a record high of $4,642.72. U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery fell 1% to $4,576.70. Ilya Spivak is the head of global macro for Tastylive. He said: "Today we are seeing that gold 'is down' a little bit after Trump said we might not intervene in Iran. This will stave off safe-haven demands (in the short term), but the bigger story (of metal's rising) won't go away." Tehran, in an effort to dissuade Trump from his repeated threats to military intervention, has threatened U.S. bases in the area, as Iran's leaders try to quell what they call the "worst internal unrest" the country has ever experienced since the 1979 Revolution. Trump, at the White House however, suggested that he would adopt a wait and see attitude towards the crisis. Trump said Wednesday that, despite the Justice Department's criminal investigation of Powell as Federal Reserve Chair, he had no plans to fire him. However it was still "too soon" to predict what he would do. Investors will focus on U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims?for the First Week of January later in the day to assess labour markets conditions and gain more insight on monetary policies. Investors continue to?anticipate two interest rate reductions this year. Gold is traditionally favored by a low-interest rate environment, as well as geopolitical or economic uncertainty. Silver spot fell 5.6%, to $87.46 an ounce. It had earlier reached a session high of $93.57. After reaching a record high of $2,478.50 per ounce on December 29, spot platinum fell 4.3%, to $2282.90 an ounce. This is a week-high. Palladium fell 3.3%, to $1.766.25 an ounce. It was near its one-week low.
The great stock rotation continues with MORNING BID Europe
Kevin Buckland gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets.
The move away from the high-flying technology?stocks, which set the pace for the record global equity 'rallies of last year, gained more momentum to the benefit?cyclical shares and?value stocks.
As an example, Japan's high-tech Nikkei index dropped by 1% during the narrative. It had previously reached a record-high. The Topix index, which is a broader measure of the market, extended its record-breaking climb by 0.4%.
The Russell 2000 index is currently outpacing S&P 500, with a 0.7% gain overnight while the larger index has lost 0.5%.
Capital.com analyst Kyle Rodda argued that despite the ominous appearance of Wall Street indexes dropping this year due to big drops for heavyweights such as Apple, Meta, and Microsoft, it was actually a healthy expansion of the market.
Futures for?Europe's futures point to a continuation of record highs reached on Wednesday in Britain, and other parts of this region.
After U.S. president Donald Trump announced that he had heard about a halt in the killing of Iranian protesters, the likelihood of U.S. war is lessened.
This saw crude oil fall sharply from multimonth highs and also helped to bring safe-haven metals down from an all-time high.
Trump de-escalated tensions between himself and the Fed by saying that he had no plan to fire Chairman Jerome Powell despite the criminal probe into the cost overruns in renovations at the Fed headquarters.
The U.S. does not cede any ground in its bid to buy Greenland. Trump reiterates that it is needed by the U.S., even though the Greenland and Denmark foreign ministers left Washington after a high-stakes summit, saying that the Danish autonomous territory was not for sale.
The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Thursday.
-UK GDP estimate, services, industrial production, manufacturing output
-France, Spain, Sweden CPI
German GDP for the full year
-Euro zone industrial production
(source: Reuters)