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The rate hike is a possibility, but the yen will not decline.

The rate hike is a possibility, but the yen will not decline.
The rate hike is a possibility, but the yen will not decline.

Ankur Banerjee gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets

After the Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo ueda's clearest indication yet of a potential move in the near future, the year that began with a rate increase in Japan could end with another. This will set the stage for an important month of divergence of monetary policy.

Ueda stated that the BOJ would consider "pros" and "cons" of increasing interest rates during its next policy meeting, which will take place in two weeks. This statement helped strengthen the fragile yen by pushing Japanese government bonds yields to their highest level in 17 years.

Investors are already preparing for a possible interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve after dovish remarks from several policymakers. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak later today and traders will analyze his comments to determine the short-term rate path.

The BOJ's and Fed's divergent actions have helped to relieve the yen from its 10-month lows, which had been causing concern about intervention. On Monday, the currency rose 0.5% to reach 155.41 U.S. dollars.

Analysts are quick to note that the yen's weakness is not likely to end anytime soon, as there will be a large gap between U.S. rates and Japan rates, even after Japan normalises its policy. The spread between U.S. 10-year bond rates and Japanese rates is at its tightest level since April 2022, with 219 basis points. However, U.S. bonds yields are still significantly higher than Japanese ones. In April 2022 the yen traded at around 123 per dollar.

After a positive end to November investors have begun to be more cautious as they await a number of economic reports from around the world, including the European Manufacturing data.

European futures suggest a lower opening in a slow start to the month, after the pan-European STOXX 600 recorded its fifth consecutive month of gains.

The markets will also want to know who will be the next Powell. His term will end in one year. White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett is the frontrunner. This could put pressure on the dollar.

Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact

Data on the November PMI for Germany, France and UK

(source: Reuters)