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Asia stocks surge as Fed rate-cut betting boosts weak US data

The Asian stock market rose on Wednesday as it followed Wall Street's gains. Weaker-than-expected data on the economy fueled expectations that Federal Reserve would cut interest rates during its next policy meeting.

MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan rose 1% after U.S. shares ended the previous session mildly up. Japan's Nikkei index gained 1.8% while U.S. futures stocks edged up by 0.2%.

U.S. stock prices recovered lost ground following a selloff at the beginning of the month. The S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose for the third day in a row on Tuesday, after data revealed that retail sales were lower than expected, and consumer confidence was down, which reinforced expectations that the Fed would ease its policy soon.

Analysts from Westpac stated in a report that there was "a sea of green" across the major equity markets, with futures pointing towards a strong start for today's session on the local market.

Analysts said that "Sentiment was boosted by the increasing odds the U.S. Fed will cut rates again in December following the decline in U.S. Consumer Confidence and the soft retail trade figures,"

Fed funds futures now price an implied 80.7% chance of a 25 basis-point cut during the next U.S. Central Bank meeting on December 10. This is compared to odds of even a week earlier, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose to 4.0037%, and last traded slightly higher than U.S. closing of 4.002%. This was after briefly falling below the 4% threshold for the first time in this month on Tuesday.

Oil prices stabilized on Wednesday after a steep drop on Tuesday, as President Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced that Ukraine was prepared to move forward with a U.S. peace plan. This could pave the way for the lifting of Western sanctions against Moscow's energy market and the addition of more supply on the market.

Brent crude futures increased 0.3% to $62.68, stabilizing after falling to a 5-week low on February 2, while European energy prices fell to their lowest level in an year and a half.

Three OPEC+ sources stated that OPEC+ will meet on Sunday, and it is likely to keep output levels the same.

The euro currency, which has gained 0.3% over the last month, was unchanged at $1.1564.

The dollar increased 0.2% to 156.33 yen, and the dollar index (which tracks the greenback's value against other major trading partners) remained unchanged at 99.833.

The sterling last traded at $1.3166, after four days' gains in anticipation of the UK budget due on Wednesday. The Finance Minister Rachel Reeves is likely to announce new tax hikes in order to maintain confidence on the financial markets, despite an expected downgrade of Britain’s economic prospects.

The New Zealand Dollar surged by 0.9% to $0.5669, after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand reduced benchmark interest rates to 2.25% from 25 basis points and tempered its previous dovish guidance.

Australian shares rose 0.7%, and the Australian Dollar strengthened by 0.2%. Consumer prices increased at a faster pace than expected in October, confirming bets on the end of the central bank’s easing cycle.

Bitcoin rose 0.5%, to $87,438.53, while spot gold traded up 0.2%, at $4,131.78 an ounce. (Reporting and editing by Jacqueline Wong; Reporting by Gregor Stuart Hunter)

(source: Reuters)