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Oil prices rise on the hope that US government will reopen soon
Oil prices rose Monday, despite concerns over rising global supplies. This was due to optimism that the U.S. shutdown would end soon. Brent crude futures were up 45 cents or 0.71% to $64.08 per barrel at 0426 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was $60.23 per barrel, up 48 Cents or 0.80%. The historic U.S. shutdown is nearing its end. It has now lasted 40 days. On Sunday, the Senate moved towards a vote to reopen the federal government. Tony Sycamore, IG's market analyst, said: "The imminent reopening will be a welcome boost for 800,000 federal employees, restoring their pay and resuming vital programs, which will increase consumer confidence, spending and activity." He said that this would also improve the risk perception across all markets and lead to a rise in WTI oil prices towards $62 per barrel. Brent and WTI both fell by about 2% and recorded their second weekly drop, due to fears of an oversupply. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and its allies agreed to slightly increase output in December but also paused any further increases in the first three months, fearing a glut. Crude stocks are also rising in the United States, while the amount of oil on board ships in Asian waterways has doubled over the past few weeks as tighter Western sanctions have curtailed imports into China and India. Indian refiners are now looking to the Middle East, and even the Americas for alternative supplies to Russian oil. The Russian oil company Lukoil faces increasing disruptions, as the November 21 deadline for American companies to stop doing business with it looms and after the sale of its operations to Swiss trader Gunvor fell through. Sycamore reported that the decision by U.S. president Trump to exempt Hungary from U.S. sanction on Russian oil imports for a year has added to concerns about global oversupply. (Reporting and editing by Christian Schmollinger; Florence Tan is the reporter)
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Stocks surge on optimism about possible end of US government shutdown
The dollar continued to lose ground from the previous week, despite the optimism of global shares rising on Monday. On Sunday, the U.S. Senate advanced a bill aimed at reopening federal government. The measure would end a 40-day shutdown which has impacted federal workers and food aid. It also slowed down air travel. The breakthrough pushed Nasdaq Futures up by 1.2%, while S&P futures rose by 0.7%. The EUROSTOXX Futures, DAX Futures, and FTSE Futures all rose more than 1%. The Nikkei, Japan's stock market index, advanced by 0.97%. Charu Chanana is the chief investment strategist of Saxo. The Senate may pass the bill but it must be approved by both the House of Representatives, and then sent to the President Donald Trump, who will sign the package. This process could take several hours. The shutdown is taking a toll on the U.S. Economy. Federal workers, from airports to the military and law enforcement are not paid. Meanwhile, the central bank has limited access to government data. Kevin Hassett, White House economist, said in an exclusive interview that if the government shutdown continues the fourth quarter GDP of the United States could be negative. The data released on Friday shows that the U.S. consumer's sentiment fell to a low of about 3-1/2 years in early November, as consumers worried about economic consequences. Chanana said that while a deal could be beneficial to the market by restoring trust and liquidity, the damage done to the economy from the U.S. shutdown, which is now the longest in history, would not be reversed. On Monday, the overall risk sentiment was still positive. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index grew 0.6%, while the CSI300 blue chip index in China fell 0.24%. The data released on Sunday shows that China's producer prices deflation has eased and that consumer prices have returned to a positive level. This is as the government intensifies its efforts to reduce overcapacity and to stop fierce competition between firms. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield increased by 3.5 basis points, to 4.1278%. The yield on the two-year bond rose by about 3 basis points to 3.5886%. The dollar has recovered some of the losses it suffered last week as investors weighed the prospects for the U.S. economic outlook against a Federal Reserve that is more hawkish. Despite recent data that fueled concerns about a weakening U.S. labor market, Fed officials reiterated last week their preference to go slow with further rate reductions. The euro fell 0.08% against the dollar to $1.1556. The dollar index was unchanged at 99.66, while sterling fell by 0.14% to $1.3147. The markets are pricing in 63% of the chance that Fed will reduce rates in December. In a recent note, ANZ economists said that "the Fed's talk last week was overwhelmingly in favor of delaying easing until December," even though the majority of speakers were regional Fed Presidents who do not vote. For now, the 12-member panel, which includes seven governors and 5 regional Fed presidents, is voting in favor of a 25-bp rate reduction, with both hawkish as well as dovish dissensions. We do not see a rate reduction as a foregone conclusion and recognize that the decision will be based on the incoming data, and the balance of the risks associated with the future. The dollar rose 0.3% against the yen to 153.91. A summary of the opinions expressed at the Bank of Japan's October meeting revealed that policymakers were increasingly convinced of the need to increase interest rates soon. Some even argued for the necessity of ensuring wage increases will continue, according to the report. Brent crude futures rose 0.72% per barrel to $64.09, while U.S. Crude gained 0.8% at $60.23. Spot gold rose 1.4%, to $4.055.05 per ounce.
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Marubeni, a Japanese company, invests in critical Australian minerals project
Marubeni Corp, a Japanese company, announced on Monday that it would invest in an Australian mineral sands development project run by RZ Resources. This follows in the footsteps JX Advanced Metals of Japan who struck a similar agreement with RZ Resources earlier this year. Marubeni has agreed to pay A$15m ($9.75m) towards options that will grant it up 5% of the equity in RZ's Copi Mineral Sands Mine Project in New South Wales, as well as certain marketing rights if the feasibility of the project is confirmed. RZ, the owner of the Copi project, as well as a mineral separation plant and processing facility in Brisbane, Queensland plans to produce heavy minerals sands such rutiles, ilmenites, zircons, and monazites. These minerals are used by industries such as aerospace, defense, and permanent magnetics. These alliances are formed as Japan and its Western Allies intensify efforts to secure vital mineral supply chains outside China. China has tightened export restrictions for key resources. JX, which produces advanced materials made from copper and rare-metal alloys for use in telecommunications and chips, became RZ's strategic partner in June. Marubeni announced that RZ and JX would work together to develop the Copi project. This will include upgrading RZ’s mineral separation facility and improving RZ’s environmental impact study. Reporting by Yuka Obayashi; Editing and proofreading by Muralikumar Aantharaman
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Copper prices rise as China's economic data boosts growth optimism
The price of copper rose on Monday, after data released by China's top consumer in October showed a easing of deflation. This boosted confidence that the economy is recovering. Consumer prices also turned positive while factory gate prices declined. As of 0255 GMT, the most traded copper contract at Shanghai Futures Exchange had risen 0.7% to 86,550 Yuan ($12150.78) per tonne. The benchmark copper for three months also rose 0.7%, to $10,798.5 per ton. According to the National Bureau of Statistics' (NBS) published data on Sunday, the producer price index fell by 2.1% in October compared with the previous year. This is a slight improvement from the 2.3% drop in September. The consumer price index rose 0.2% and reversed a two-month downward trend. Both readings exceeded estimates and showed a reduction in deflationary stress in the second largest economy in the world. Analysts warned that risks were not over, but called for additional policy to stimulate demand. The United States Senate is close to passing a bill that will fund the government until January 2026. This would end the shutdown which was a record. It also helped copper prices by relieving the market of the negative impact. Analysts said that copper stocks in sheds registered with the SHFE decreased 1% compared to a week earlier, according to Friday's stock report. This shows a recovery in demand after a decline in copper prices last week which wiped out overextended gains. Copper demand has been resilient. Although buyers were cautious during high prices, they have increased their purchasing orders as prices decreased," said analysts at Chinese broker GF Futures in a report. Aluminium, among other SHFE metals, edged up 0.14%, while lead gained 0.43%. Tin added 1.01%. Zinc was down 0.20%. Nickel dipped by 0.17%. Nickel was unchanged. ($1 = 7.1230 Chinese Yuan) (Reporting and editing by Sherry Phillips, Lewis Jackson, Dylan Duan)
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Stocks surge on optimism about possible end of US government shutdown
The dollar continued to suffer from losses last week, despite the optimism of a possible end to the historic U.S. shutdown. On Sunday, the U.S. Senate moved toward a vote to reopen the federal government. This came a day after Senate majority leader John Thune announced that bipartisan discussions in the chamber had taken a positive direction. Nasdaq Futures gained 1.1%, while S&P500 futures increased by 0.65%. The Nikkei, Japan's stock market index, rose 1% and MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan gained 0.9%. Charu Chanana is the chief investment strategist of Saxo. The Senate may pass the bill but it must be approved by both the House of Representatives, and then sent to the President Donald Trump, who will sign the bill. This process could take several hours. The shutdown is taking a toll on the U.S. Economy. Federal workers, from airports to the military and law enforcement are not paid. Meanwhile, the central bank has limited access to government data. Kevin Hassett, White House economist, said in an exclusive interview that the fourth-quarter GDP of the United States could be negative if shutdown continues. The data released on Friday showed that the U.S. consumer's sentiment fell to a low of about 3-1/2 years in early November, as consumers worried about economic consequences. Chanana said that while a deal could be beneficial to the market by restoring trust and liquidity, the damage done to the economy from the U.S. shutdown, which is now the longest in history, would not be reversed. On Monday, the overall risk sentiment was still positive. The FTSE Futures rose 0.8%, and the EuroStoxx 50 Futures and DAX Futures each gained nearly 1.4%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index grew 0.6%, while the CSI300 blue chip index in China fell 0.14%. China's producer prices were revealed in data released on Sunday Deflation As the government intensifies its efforts to curb excessive capacity and intense competition between firms, consumer prices have returned to positive territory. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield increased by 3.5 basis points, to 4.1278%. The yield on the two-year bond rose by about 3 basis points to 3.5886%. The dollar has recovered some of the losses it suffered last week as investors weighed the prospects for the U.S. economic outlook against a Federal Reserve that is more hawkish. Despite recent data that fueled concerns about a weakened U.S. labor market, Fed officials reiterated last week their preference to go slow with further rate reductions. The euro fell 0.06% against the dollar to $1.1558. The pound fell by 0.1%, to $1.3152. Meanwhile, the dollar index remained at 99.64. The markets are pricing in 63% of the chance that Fed will reduce rates in December. In a recent note, ANZ economists said that "the Fed's talk last week was overwhelmingly in favor of delaying easing until December," even though the majority of speakers were regional Fed Presidents who do not vote. For now, the 12-member panel, which includes seven governors and 5 regional Fed presidents, is voting in favor of a 25-bp rate reduction, with both dovish and hawkish dissents. We do not see a rate reduction as a foregone conclusion and recognize that the decision will be based on the incoming data, and the balance of the risks associated with the future. The dollar rose 0.3% against the yen to 153.90. Bank of Japan policymakers have seen a Growing A summary of the opinions expressed at the October meeting on Monday showed that there was a case for raising interest rates soon, and some argued the need to maintain the wage-hike momentum in companies. Brent crude futures rose 0.53% per barrel to $63,97, while U.S. Crude gained 0.6% at $60.11. Spot gold rose 1.2%, to $4 047.23 per ounce.
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Iron ore falls to multi-month lows amid China demand concerns
Iron ore prices dropped for the second consecutive session on Monday, hitting their lowest level in several months. This was due to lingering fears about demand in China, which is a major consumer of iron ore. Also, portside ore stocks were rising. By 0215 GMT, the most traded January iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange fell by 1.18% to 756.5 Yuan ($106.21), its lowest level since 10 July. As of 0205 GMT the benchmark December iron ore traded on the Singapore Exchange had fallen 0.12% to $101.15 per ton. This was its lowest price since September 1. First Futures analysts said that several steelmakers in China have implemented equipment maintenance due to losses. Analysts at the consultancy Mysteel reported that a couple of cities, including Tangshan - a key hub for steel production - removed emergency response based on pollution Sunday. Steel mills must typically control production when responding to such emergencies. Analysts said that mills were not keen to restart full-scale operations due to the losses they suffered as a result of low raw material prices, and a softening demand downstream. Iron ore stocks at major Chinese ports also increased as prices rose, resulting in a pressure on prices. SteelHome reported that the number of tons produced in the United States increased by 2.1% compared to the previous week, reaching 138.44 millions as of November 7. This is the highest level since March 21. Coke and other steelmaking materials, such as coking coal, fell by 2.11% and 1.67 percent, respectively. The Shanghai Futures Exchange has seen a decline in most steel benchmarks. Rebar fell 0.3%, hot-rolled coil dropped 0.4%, and stainless steel remained unchanged. The iron market has been weakened despite positive factory data. In October, China's producer prices deflation eased and consumer prices returned into positive territory as the government increased efforts to curb excessive capacity and fierce competition between firms. $1 = 7.1230 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson)
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Scientists blame rising temperatures for the destruction caused by Typhoon Kalmaegi in Southeast Asia.
Scientists warn that extreme weather events will only increase in frequency as temperatures continue to rise. At least 188 people were killed by Typhoon Kalmaegi in the Philippines. It also caused extensive damage to farmland and infrastructure across the archipelago. After landing in central Vietnam on Thursday night, the storm destroyed homes and uprooted many trees. At least five people were killed. The path of destruction of Kalmaegi coincides with the meeting of more than 190 delegates in Belem, Brazil's rainforest city for the latest round in climate talks. Researchers claim that the failure of leaders around the world to control greenhouse gas emission has resulted in increasingly violent storms. Ben Clarke is an extreme weather researcher from London's Grantham Institute on Climate Change and Environment. He said that the sea surface temperatures over the South China Sea and the Western North Pacific are both unusually warm. The trend in sea surface temperature is clearly linked to global warming. WARMER WATERS PACK 'FUEL' INTO CYCLONES Scientists say that while it's not easy to link a specific weather event with climate change, in general, higher sea surface temperatures accelerate the evaporation and add more "fuel" to tropical cyclones. Gianmarco Megaldo, researcher at National University of Singapore, said that climate change increases typhoon intensities primarily through warming ocean surface temperature and increasing atmospheric moisture. He added that "although this doesn't mean every typhoon is going to get stronger, it does increase the probability of storms with greater intensity and heavier rains, as well as stronger winds." MUCH INTENSIER BUT NOT FREQUENTER While data doesn't indicate that tropical storms have become more frequent, Mengaldo said the number of storms with high intensity has increased. He co-authored a report on the role climate change played in Typhoon Ragasa, which hit the Philippines last September. He said that the total number of typhoons per year had not increased in a long time. Climate change is likely to be responsible for the increase in the number of intense events, and episodes of rapid intensification. This has been driven by the warmer oceans, and increased atmospheric instability. In November of last year, four tropical cyclones developed at the same moment, a rare event. This suggests that storms are now occurring over shorter periods. Dhrubajyoti Samantha, a climate researcher at Singapore's Nanyang Technological University, said that even if the total number of cyclones doesn't increase dramatically each year, their proximity to one another and impact potential may increase. He added that "Kalmaegi serves as a reminder of this emerging risk pattern." BACK-TOBACK SEVERE STORMS CAUSING MORE DESTRUCTION Feng Xiangbo is a tropical storm scientist at the University of Reading in Britain. He said that "back-to-back" storms could cause more damage. This is because the soils are already soaked, the rivers are full and infrastructure has been weakened. Even a weak storm can cause catastrophic damage at this time. Feng and Mengaldo both warned that other regions may also be at risk, as storms could form in new locations and follow different paths and intensify. Feng said that recent studies show the coastal areas affected by tropical cyclones are growing significantly due to storm surges and ocean wave growth. This, along with the mean sea level increase, poses a serious threat to low lying areas, especially in the Philippines and on Vietnam's shallow coast shelves. (Reporting and editing by Saad Saeed; David Stanway)
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Stocks surge on optimism about possible end of US government shutdown
On Monday, global shares rose in Asia amid optimism that the historic U.S. shutdown may be nearing an end. Meanwhile, the dollar continued to suffer losses from the previous week. On Sunday, the U.S. Senate moved towards a vote to reopen the federal government. This came a day after Senate majority leader John Thune announced that bipartisan discussions in the chamber had taken a positive direction. Early trade saw Nasdaq 500 futures rise 0.5%, while S&P futures were up 0.8%. The Nikkei, Japan's stock market index, rose 0.6% and MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan gained 0.5%. Charu Chanana is the chief investment strategist for Saxo. She said that even if a deal was reached in the Senate, it would still need to be approved by the House of Representatives, where Democratic leaders had already indicated their opposition. The markets might see a short-term improvement, but headline-driven instability is likely to persist until there is a clear solution. The shutdown has had a negative impact on the U.S. economic system. Federal workers, from airports to the military and law enforcement are not paid. Meanwhile, the central bank is flying blind due to limited government reporting. Kevin Hassett, White House economist, said in an exclusive interview that the fourth-quarter GDP of the United States could be negative if shutdown continues. The data released on Friday showed that the U.S. consumer's sentiment fell to a low of about 3-1/2 years in early November, as consumers worried about economic consequences. Chanana said that while a deal could be beneficial to the market by restoring trust and liquidity, the damage done to the economy from the U.S. shutdown is not undone. On Monday, the overall risk sentiment was still positive. The EuroStoxx 50 futures, DAX Futures and South Korea's Kospi each rose 1.3%. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose 3.5 basis points, to 4.1278%. The yield on the two-year bond rose by about 3 basis points to 3.5886%. The dollar has recovered some of the losses it suffered last week as investors weighed the prospects for the U.S. economic outlook against a Federal Reserve that is more hawkish. Although recent data has stoked concerns about a weakening U.S. labor market, Fed officials have maintained their preference to be cautious with further rate reductions. The dollar rose 0.28% to 153.87 Japanese yen while the euro fell 0.13%, closing at $1.1551 The value of the sterling fell by 0.17%, to $1.3142. Brent crude futures rose 0.4% to $63.89 a barrel while U.S. Crude edged up 0.45% to $60.01 per barrel. Spot gold rose 0.6% to $4.023.40 per ounce.
Oil prices rise on the optimism that the US government will reopen soon
Oil prices rose Monday, despite concerns over rising global supplies. This was due to optimism that the U.S. shutdown would end soon.
Brent crude futures were up 47 cents or 0.74% to $64.10 per barrel at 0123 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was $60.25 per barrel, up $50 cents or 0.84%.
The historic U.S. shutdown is nearing its end. It has now lasted 40 days. On Sunday, the Senate moved towards a vote to reopen the federal government.
Tony Sycamore, IG's market analyst, said: "The imminent reopening will be a welcome boost for 800,000 federal employees, restoring their pay and resuming vital programs, which will increase consumer confidence, spending and activity."
He said that this would also improve the risk perception across all markets and lead to a rise in WTI oil prices towards $62 per barrel.
Brent and WTI both fell by about 2% and recorded their second weekly drop, due to fears of an oversupply. OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries with their Allies) agreed to slightly increase output in December but also paused any further increases in the first three months, fearing a glut.
Crude stocks are also rising in the United States, while the amount of oil on board ships in Asian waterways has doubled over the past few weeks as tighter Western sanctions have curtailed imports into China and India.
Indian refiners are now looking to the Middle East, and even the Americas for alternative supplies to Russian oil.
The Russian oil producer Lukoil faces increasing disruptions, as the November 21 deadline for American companies to stop doing business with it looms and after the sale of its operations to Swiss trader Gunvor fell through.
Sycamore reported that the decision by U.S. president Trump to exempt Hungary from U.S. sanction on Russian oil imports for a year has added to concerns about global oversupply. (Reporting and editing by Christian Schmollinger; Florence Tan is the reporter)
(source: Reuters)