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India's Grasim drops the most in more than 3 years, as paints chief departure fuels growth concerns
Indian textiles-to-chemicals firm Grasim Industries' stock fell as much as 6.5% on Thursday - its steepest in more than three years - as the exit of its paints segment's chief stoked investor concerns about the business' growth path. Rakshit hargave has been with the Aditya Birla Group for four years. He announced on Wednesday that he would step down from his position as CEO at Birla Opus and join biscuit maker Britannia in its role as chief executive officer. Grasim stock, last down 6% in value, is up about 11% this year. This outperforms the benchmark Nifty50 index's 8% increase. Motilal oswal, a brokerage firm, said that the exit would be a major "overhang" in the near term on the stock. Jefferies described it as a "negative shock" that could keep investor sentiment cautious. Hargave was the driving force behind Grasim’s ambitious 2024 Paints foray. The paints were launched in a hurry and gained significant market share in just a few months. This gave Asian Paints, market leader since decades, one of their biggest challenges. Investors are worried about whether Hargave's replacement will be able maintain the growth momentum. This is especially true as the brokerage Geojit Financial Services has almost completed its planned capital expenditure. Grasim reported its second quarter earnings on Wednesday and said that it had spent 97.3% the 100 billion rupees of capital expenditure earmarked for scaling up Birla Opus. It said that Himanshu Kapania, an insider, will supervise the business of paints in the interim. Thomas stated that "the uncertainty at Birla's Opus gives a breather for Asian Paints as well as other rivals like Berger Paints." At the last close of trading, shares of Grasim were up 31% from their foray while Asian Paints had fallen about 18%. Asian Paints' shares rose by 5% on the day. This was due to a higher weighting in MSCI Global Standard Indexes, as part of MSCI's quarterly review, effective November 24, which is now complete. (Reporting by Hritam Mukherjee in Bengaluru; Editing by Harikrishnan Nair)
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Sources say that Reliance has offered to buy oil after purchasing at least 12 million barrels of Russian supply.
Trade sources claim that India's Reliance has been trying to resell Middle Eastern crude oil it bought last month in order to replace Russian oil due to Western sanctions. Last month, the refiner stopped buying from Moscow after Rosneft's supplier was sanctioned. It also bought 12 million barrels from the Middle East or the Americas. The Indian conglomerate has a long term deal with Rosneft to purchase nearly 500,000 barrels of crude oil per day. It had stated that it would adhere to sanctions against Moscow, while maintaining its ties with existing oil suppliers. The United States, Britain and the European Union have all imposed sanctions against Russia for its involvement in the war in Ukraine. New sanctions by the United States target its two largest oil producers, Rosneft, and Lukoil. The United States has given companies until the 21st of November to end transactions with Russian oil producers. Reliance Industries Ltd bought 1,000,000 barrels each of Abu Dhabi Murban, Upper Zakum and Qatar Land to replace Russian supplies. The company also purchased 3 million barrels each of Qatari al Shaheen and Khafji crudes, 2,000,000 barrels each of Iraqi Basrah Medium crudes, 2,000,000 barrels each of Brazilian Tupi or Sapi crudes, and 2,000,000 barrels each of U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude, according to the report. They said that the Middle Eastern grades will be loaded in December and the Brazilian oil delivered in December. The sources claim that WTI will be arriving at Reliance’s Sikka Port in January. They added that sellers include Totsa (the trading arm of TotalEnergies), BP, Gunvor Aramco Trading Repsol Petrobras Eni Vitol and Totsa. They declined to name the sources as they were not authorized to speak with media. Reliance likely purchased more spot cargoes, which traders estimate to be around 16 million barrels. All sources agreed to remain anonymous as this is a sensitive issue. Reliance was not available for immediate comment. Trading companies rarely comment on commercial transactions. One source said that they probably purchased more, and we are missing the incremental term supply, for example. They added that the refiner probably requested more term supplies from Saudi Aramco and other companies such as Kuwait Petroleum Corp, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co and Iraq's SOMO. RESELLING Reliance, however, has offered to resell some of the cargoes. The refiner sold the crude at a profit, so the sale was likely opportunistic. It was unclear if Reliance sold any more cargoes. Reliance, according to one trader, offered Middle Eastern cargos at a discount to the official selling price. Reliance would have a difficult time reselling Middle Eastern crude at a profit due to the high costs of freight and because producers had cut their prices in this month. The EU announced that it would not accept fuel produced by refineries that have received or processed Russian crude oil 60 days before the date of the bill. Reliance exports 28% of its products to Europe. Reliance is a swing-supplier, which means it can sell its products in Asia, Europe or Africa to get the best price, according to traders. Reliance, owned by Mukesh Ambani and his billionaire company, is India's largest buyer of Russian crude.
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Shanghai copper prices rise after a four-day drop as the selling pressure eases
Shanghai copper rose Thursday, after hitting a low of more than a week in the previous session. The selling pressure had eased after a four-day drop. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most active copper contract closed the daytime trading at 86320 yuan (12,118.49 USD) per metric tonne, up 1.04%. The benchmark three-month futures on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.75%, to $10,777.50 per ton at 0744 GMT. Analysts at Sucden Financial wrote in a report that copper's consolidation was more likely to be the result of "unwinding overextended positions than a change in fundamental narrative". Analysts see a possible deficit in 2026. This is still a major factor in the price of red metal. After a four-day drop, the selling pressure on the Shanghai contract has eased. The metal had reached a new historic high of 89.270 yuan per ton. The London benchmark also gained after a four day loss, after it reached a record high last week of $11,200 on tight global supplies. The traders are now awaiting further economic data, especially from China. There was disappointment in the manufacturing PMI for October. The trade readings will be released on Friday, and the lending data will be released next week. Aluminium, the base metals complex of the SHFE, posted the largest gain. It rose by 1.31%, to 21,630 Yuan per ton. As of 0744 GMT, the benchmark three-month aluminum also increased, rising by 0.84%, to $2,874 per ton. It was also the largest gainer among LME's base metals. Funds turned bullish Aluminium was the subject of concern as concerns about supply grew. The government had set a cap on capacity at 45 million tonnes per year for China, which is the world's largest producer. Other SHFE metals saw tin gain 0.49%; zinc gained 0.29%; lead fell 0.40% and nickel was little altered. The LME also saw a rise in zinc, nickel, tin, and lead. Zinc rose by 0.66%; Nickel rose 0.40%, while tin increased 0.62%. Lead rose by 0.15%. $1 = 7.1230 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Harikrishnan Nair, Janane Venkatraman and Lewis Jackson)
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Iron ore shipments fall by a fourth day, resulting in a four-day drop
Dalian iron ore prices ended higher on Thursday, ending a losing streak of four sessions. This was due to a drop in global shipments. However, lingering worries about oversupply slowed gains. The January contract for iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange traded 0.65% higher, at 777.5 Yuan ($109.15). As of 0721 GMT, the benchmark December iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange increased by 0.37% to $100.39 per ton. Everbright Futures, a Chinese broker, reported that shipments from Australia and Brazil, two of the top producers, declined simultaneously. This led to a drop in global shipments. Atilla WIDNEL, Navigate Commodities' managing director in Singapore, noted that the rally and optimism following the Fourth Plenum have now faded, leaving the markets with very few concrete details about "anti-involutionary" measures or long term steel capacity reforms. The anti-involution campaign is a Chinese initiative to curb overcapacity, and unsustainable low prices in many industries. Mills have not been motivated to permanently close down their plants. This has led to concerns about the possibility of an oversupply for now. Atilla said that the relatively high output of steel during a period of low demand has a negative impact on steel prices, margins and input costs, such as iron ore. Analysts at ANZ believe that the environmental production-cutting warning for Hebei Province is likely to have an impact on blast furnace operations. SteelHome data shows that the total iron ore stocks across Chinese ports increased by 1.53% in a week to 135.6 million tonnes as of October 31. Coking coal and coke, which are used to make steel, have both gained in price, rising by 2.38% and 2.07 percent, respectively. The benchmark steel prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. Rebar was up 0.4%, while hot-rolled coil, stainless steel, and wire rod were all flat. ($1 = 7.1230 Chinese yuan). (Reporting and editing by Mrigank Dahniwala, Eileen Soreng and Lucas Liew)
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China has not yet released data on gold production for the latest quarter
China has not published gold data as usual in late October. This led to speculations that the top producer of precious metals may have stopped publishing altogether. China, the world's biggest consumer of gold, releases data on its website for the first quarter. In 2017, the only time a publication was made in November instead of late October, it was one year. In 2016, the data were first published quarterly. Both the association and China's Ministry of Industry did not respond when contacted for comments. Beijing has stopped disclosing the key indicators of supply for rare earths and industry participants have said that they wouldn't be surprised if it happened to gold. China's lack of data on gold comes after the country ended its long-standing policy of tax exemption for certain gold retailers, which may have dampened demand from gold buyers. Gold prices are at record highs, driven by a growing demand for safe-haven assets amid speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve may cut rates. Also driving gold prices is China's central banks strong purchasing in September. Investment banks are expecting gold to reach new heights next year. Morgan Stanley, as an example, thinks gold prices will reach $4,500 in mid-2026, while Bank of America raised its forecast for next year from $5,000 to $5,000. Last time, gold was trading around $3990. Reporting by Staff; Editing by Lewis Jackson, Edwina Gibbs
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Gold prices rise on weaker dollar and US government shutdown
Gold edged higher on Thursday, as the dollar fell from its four-month high. Investors remained uncertain about the U.S. economy amid the government shutdown. Gold spot rose 0.4%, to $3.996.19 per ounce at 0712 GMT. Bullion is down about 9% from its record high of $4381.21 set on October 20. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery increased by 0.3% to $4,005.60 an ounce. Tim Waterer, KCM Trade's Chief Market Analyst, said that the dollar had dipped a little bit. This made it easier for gold to gain traction on the upside. Dollar fell by 0.2%, after reaching a four-month peak in the previous session. This made gold cheaper for holders of other currencies. The ADP report on Wednesday showed that private employers in the United States added 42,000 new jobs in October. This was more than double the forecasted gain of 28,000, according to ADP. The strong labor market may temper hopes of a rate cut. The longest government shutdown in U.S. history is the result of a congressional impasse. Investors and the Federal Reserve are forced to rely on indicators from the private sector. Waterer said that traders hadn't forgotten the fact the the government shutdown was the longest ever. Jerome Powell, the Fed's chairperson, said that it could be the last time rates are reduced before 2025. The market participants see a 63% probability of a Fed interest rate cut in December. This is down from over 90% last week. Gold that does not yield a return tends to perform well in environments with low interest rates. The U.S. Supreme Court raised questions on Wednesday about the legality and impact of President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs. Silver spot gained 0.7%, to $48,40 an ounce. Platinum was up 0.5%, at $1,569.34. Palladium rose by 1.2%, to $1,436.65. (Reporting and editing by Rashmi aich, Ronojoy Mazumdar, and Ishaan arora)
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Sao Paulo hosts top business leaders as COP30 launches in Belem
The world leaders who are gathering in Brazil to discuss climate change are deliberately thousands of miles from the finance and business leaders that they hope will fund the fight against global heating. The executives who have attended the recent U.N. Climate Summits in Baku and Dubai, Sharm el-Sheikh, Glasgow, are now gathered in Sao Paulo's business district, instead of battling for hotel rooms in Belem, the small Amazonian town hosting the summit this year. The Brazilian government has given the green light to finance-focused conferences hosted by third parties. This has attracted thousands of registrants around the globe. The majority of the twenty-two people who spoke to said that they did not plan on visiting Belem. This is where leaders are expected for a summit of heads of state Thursday and Friday, before COP30 starts next week. It's difficult to get there and logistically more challenging, so I think that it's better for me here," said Walter Mattaliano, CFO of Hydnum, a South Korean firm seeking funding for a green-steel project. Borge Brende is the president and CEO of the World Economic Forum. He would have preferred that the COP30 events be held in a single city, but he was happy with the activities in Sao Paulo. The COP30 is being billed as a "implementation conference" which will be focusing on taking actions to fulfill past commitments rather than haggling over political negotiations about new pledges. Business leaders have said that in this context, Belem's smaller business presence should not pose a problem. David Kennedy, the head of Science Based Targets, an initiative that helps companies create ambitious plans, said: "What's most important is not whether business leaders attend negotiations, but whether they take action at home." Kennedy stated that more than 11,000 businesses have committed or set targets to reduce emissions in accordance with climate scientists' recommendations to slow the global temperature rise. Since late 2023 the number of net zero commitments has tripled, largely due to firms from Asia and Latin America. Business leaders have still got big demands. On Monday, several groups issued a letter urging for more ambitious national policies in order to stimulate demand for green innovations. GREEN SKILLS - PUSH FOR SCALE Recent U.N. Reports show that the world is behind in its efforts to limit climate changes. Temperatures are expected to rise beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius post-industrial warming by 2030, and to continue to increase up to 2.5 C. A second report released on Tuesday showed that industrial companies are generating more than 1,000 new projects to reduce their emissions. These companies account for about a quarter (25%) of the global emissions. Faustine Delasalle, CEO of Mission Possible Partnership, said: "By building on the leadership shown by many companies in the world, investors and governments have the unique opportunity to transform today's plans into actual plants that will together form tomorrow's clean industrial economy." LinkedIn data, shared with us exclusively, shows that skills needed for green energy continue to be in short supply. According to the analysis, which compared skills sought by employers with those held by employees in eight countries it was found that finance, technology, and logistics are amongst the sectors experiencing knowledge gaps. This gap cannot be closed without coordinated, urgent action in the area of training. "We need a coordinated response from government, industry, and educators to embed green skills at the heart of every business and climate plan," said Sue Duke.
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ArcelorMittal's third-quarter profits are in line with expectations
ArcelorMittal reported its third quarter core profit on Thursday, in line with the market's expectations. It also gave a positive outlook to 2026. According to LSEG, the Luxembourg-based company reported earnings before interest taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), of $1.51billion in the third quarter. This is in line with analyst estimates of $1.50billion. Aditya Mittal, chief executive of the company, said that "we are seeing signs stabilization" and were optimistic about our business outlook in 2026 when we would benefit from more supportive policies for industry in key markets. The company stated that the overall demand was still weak and there was no sign of restocking, as customers continue to "wait and watch" and maintain a cautious approach. Western steelmakers Have welcomed After the U.S. raised tariffs on Steel The European Commission has announced that the EU will be reducing its VAT to 50% from June. Announced plans Import quotas will be increased and duties imposed on volumes exceeding these levels. They have been arguing against what they call Global Overcapacity Pressure from imports of cheaper steel from Asia. (Reporting and editing by Javi Larranaga; Matt Scuffham).
MORNING BID EUROPE-Spotlight on knife-edge BoE decision
Rae Wee gives us a look at what the European and global markets will be like tomorrow.
The Bank of England announced its interest rate decision Thursday. What had seemed to be a simple hold, is now being scrutinized.
The markets are now pricing in a nearly one-in-3 chance that the rate will be cut to 3.75%. This is up from one-in-10 a month earlier. The UK's 3.8% inflation rate is the highest of the Group of Seven advanced economies. However, a steady reading, and a cooling labor market, have shown some signs of a easing of inflationary pressures.
The likelihood of more belt-tightening as part of the nation's next budget could be a major factor in policymakers' decision to lower rates this Thursday. The British finance minister Rachel Reeves paved the path for tax increases to avoid a return of "austerity" by framing her budget for this year as a series of "hard decisions" to reduce Britain's debt and protect public spending. Reeves’ rare pre-budget address left some analysts confused over the timing. However, they expect the budget to be deflationary.
ASIAN SHARES BOUNCE BACK
AstraZeneca, Deutsche Post and other European companies will report their earnings later that day. Recent earnings forecasts show that the outlook for European corporate health is substantially better, as investors' worst concerns for quarterly earnings did not materialize. Asia shares recovered from their previous session's steep losses, as better than expected U.S. data attracted investors to indexes that were trading near record levels. Investors are not as concerned about inflated tech stock valuations after Wednesday's steep sell-off. Pony Ai's and WeRide's stocks fell in Hong Kong as the Chinese developers of autonomous driving began trading after raising $1.2 billion through share offerings.
Later on Thursday, a number of Federal Reserve officials will also be speaking. This could provide some insight into the U.S. interest rate outlook.
The resilience of the world's biggest economy has caused traders to reduce bets on a Fed rate cut in December. Markets now price in a 61% probability of a 25 basis-point cut down from 70% earlier in this week. On the tariffs front the U.S. Supreme Court Justices raised doubts about the legality President Donald Trump's sweeping duties, in a case that has implications for the global economic system and marks a significant test of Trumps' powers.
The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Thursday.
Bank of England Rate Decision
- AstraZeneca, Deutsche Post, Henkel, Sainsbury earnings
Fed's Barr Williams Hammack Waller Paulson Musalem Musalem
(source: Reuters)