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Oil prices fall as OPEC plans to increase output offset US-China trade optimism

The oil prices fell Tuesday, as OPEC’s plan to increase output countered optimism over a possible U.S. China trade deal. Investors also weighed the effectiveness of sanctions against Russia.

Brent crude futures dropped 3 cents at $35.59 per barrel by 0359 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures fell 5 cents to $61.26.

ANZ's morning note stated that traders weighed progress in U.S. China trade talks as well as the broader outlook of supply.

Four sources familiar with the discussions said that OPEC+ is in favor of a modest increase in output for December. This will act as a downward pressure on prices. After reducing production to support the oil markets for several years, the group began reversing these cuts in April.

The prospect of a deal between President Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, the two world's largest oil consumers, who are due to meet in South Korea on Thursday, is expected to support the market. Beijing hopes Washington will meet them halfway in order to "prepare high-level interaction" between the U.S. and China, said Foreign Minister Wang Yi during a telephone call with U.S. Sec. of State Marco Rubio on Monday.

Brent and WTI both registered their largest weekly gains in June after Trump, for the first time during his second term, imposed sanctions against Russia related to Ukraine, targeting Lukoil, and Rosneft.

Lukoil, Russia's 2nd largest oil producer, announced on Monday that it would be selling its international assets in response to the sanctions. The Russian company has taken the most significant action to date in response to the Western sanctions imposed over Russia's conflict in Ukraine that began in February 2022.

Fatih Bibil, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, said that sanctions against oil-exporting nations could increase crude prices but their effect would be limited due to surplus capacity.

Participants on the market generally believed that sanctions would have a short-term effect. Haitong Securities stated in a report that any medium-to-long-term losses of supply looked limited and an oversupply was likely to put pressure on the prices. Ashitha Shivprasad reported from Bengaluru, and Sam Li from Beijing. Sonali Paul and Thomas Derpinghaus edited the article.

(source: Reuters)