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LME introduces new restrictions for holders of large positions
London Metal Exchange announced on Friday that it has placed new restrictions on large position holders in nearby contracts due to low inventories. LME took action when premiums on nearby copper contracts rose to their highest level since October 2022. In recent months, the exchange, which is the oldest and largest industrial metals market in the world, has said that it has monitored large positions and had to take some action in certain cases. The LME stated that "at times, the Special Committee of the LME has directed market participants in order to take certain actions to reduce large positions on the exchange relative to the current stock levels." The Special Committee feels that it is now appropriate, given the low stock situation, to introduce... a transparent and widely applicable set of requirements." It was done to prevent the creation of a "corner" or "undesirable situations" on the market. It added that the new rule extends restrictions already in place by the LME on "tom next" positions, which are those nearer to delivery. Holders of long positions that are higher than the total stock levels must lend the money back to the market with no premium. Copper premium is the difference between the three-month cash contract and the copper cash contract. It is now trading at $180 per ton, up from $3 a month earlier. LME data shows that one company holds a dominant position with more than 90% of 0#LMEWHC> copper warrants or cash contracts, and two other companies hold 50%-79%. The title document that confers ownership on metal is a warrant. The 99,200 tons of copper in LME warehouses has dropped by more than 60% from the middle February to its lowest level since August 2023. . Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd. owns the LME. (Reporting and editing by Chris Reese and Diane Craft; Reporting by Eric Onstad)
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Reports from FT suggest that UK's Thames Water could be required to restate its accounts
The Financial Times reported that Britain's Thames Water could be required to restate their financial accounts for the period ended March 2024. This would mark another possible setback for this struggling utility, as it attempts to avoid nationalisation. The newspaper cited documents that were seen by the report to say that Thames Water was trying to determine the implications of having to restate certain figures in the accounts it published last year. The report stated that there was concern at Thames Water that any change to its accounts might prompt one of the senior lenders to claim that debt terms were breached. It was reported that the Financial Reporting Council (UK's accounting watchdog) was aware of the problem, citing sources familiar with the matter. In response to an email request for comments, a Thames Water representative said: "We adhere to all UK-adopted International Accounting Standards. We take our regulatory accounting responsibility seriously." KKR, a U.S.-based private equity firm, backed out of a plan earlier this month to inject equity of 4 billion pounds ($5,39 billion) in the struggling company. This left its fate in senior creditors who are now negotiating a deal for a rescue with the water regulator Ofwat.
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Putin: No need for OPEC+ intervention in the oil market because of Iran-Israel conflict
Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, said that the conflict between Iran & Israel had not caused oil prices to rise significantly. He also stated that the OPEC+ oil producers did not need to intervene on the oil market. Brent crude futures reached their highest level since late January as investors were on edge due to the escalation of a recent air war between Israel, Iran and Syria. Putin stated that the price of crude oil is now around $75 per barrel. Before the conflict escalated, it was $65. "We see, of course, that the current Middle East situation, as well as the conflict between Iran, and Israel has caused a slight increase in the prices." Our experts believe that this price increase is not significant. Iran is the third-largest producer of oil among the members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Hostilities may disrupt the oil supply and increase prices. Putin said OPEC, along with its allies, including Russia, a group called OPEC+ that pumps half the world's crude oil, were increasing their oil production, but gradually to maintain a balance on the oil market, and "comfortable prices". We will all watch together the unfolding of the situation. "No immediate action is needed," he stated. (Reporting and editing by Andrew Osborn, Jan Harvey and Guy Faulconbridge)
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The US refinery capacity will grow to 18,4 million bpd by 2024
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported on Friday that the capacity of U.S. refineries to process crude oil will increase by almost 40,000 barrels a day in 2024, reaching 18.4 million bpd. According to a report, the Port Arthur plant of Motiva Enterprises in Texas became the world's largest refinery based on capacity, with 640,500 barrels per day. It passed Marathon Petroleum's Galveston Bay Refinery, located in Texas City. Motiva increased its capacity by 14,500 bpd over the past year due to improved operating efficiency. The report for next year may show a drop of up to 402,476 bpd due to refinery closures. Lyondell Basell Industries closed its 263,776 bpd Houston refining plant permanently in February. Phillips 66 will close its 138 700 bpd Los Angeles facility by the end this year. If refineries do not improve their efficiency, also known as de-bottlenecking in the industry, then the U.S. production capacity will fall below that of 2023, which was 18.06 million barrels per day, according to the EIA. According to the EIA annual report, Marathon, located in Findlay, Ohio continues to be the United States' largest refiner. It has 13 refineries with a combined capacity of 2,96 million bpd, or 16% of total national production. According to the EIA, Valero Energy Corp., based in San Antonio is the second-largest refinery, with 13 facilities operating 2.2 millions bpd. This represents 12% of the U.S. production capacity. The EIA reported that Exxon Mobil Corp. is the third largest refiner, with four facilities with a crude oil throughput of 1.96 million barrels per day, or 10.6% the national capacity. The EIA Report reflects refinery capacities as of January 1, 2020 and is based upon reports submitted by refiners for individual capacities per refinery before January 1. It provides an overview of the growth that occurred in the prior year. In the long term, U.S. refineries have seen a trend of increasing capacity in remaining refineries while decreasing the number of refineries. The number of refineries in America remained the same at 132 in 2024. However, the EIA report states that the CPI Operations refinery, which produces 32,000 bpd, in Paulsboro in New Jersey, is idle. (Reporting and editing by Mark Porter, Louise Heavens, and Erwin Seba)
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Moscow promises to closely supervise foreign businesses returning to Russia
Igor Krasnov is the Russian Prosecutor-General, who led the government's effort to seize property valued at 2.4 trillion rubles ($31 billion). He said that foreign companies returning to Russia would be closely monitored to ensure Russia benefits. In the three years since Russia began its war in Ukraine, Moscow has taken over a dozen assets owned by foreigners under its management. This year, prosecutors have increased the seizure and confiscation of assets in Ukraine. As the economy slows down after two years of high growth, fueled by military spending, Russian officials try to strike a balance between protecting the economy from Western nations they consider unfriendly, and the need to grow to continue funding the conflict in Ukraine. Krasnov stated, "We will closely monitor the actions of the government." "That's who will come... and on what terms they'll come." Krasnov stated that "we will look to make sure the conditions in which our business (Russian business) operates are better when Western business returns." He said that it must be profitable for the Russian firms themselves. Russia gives priority to its domestic firms. Some of these companies have taken over market share from Western firms such as McDonald's, Unilever and others that left the country since Russia started the conflict in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin, President of Russia on Friday, said that the Russian economy cannot develop without foreign investment and that Moscow will create conditions for making foreign partners feel comfortable. He said that Russian companies should fulfill legally binding buybacks of foreign companies but that Russia would support any measures that are in its own interest. Putin stated that if someone leaves for political reasons or under pressure by their own political elites and their country, they are not reliable partners. WESTERN FIRMS ARE ABSENT Kirill Dmitriev is the head of Russia's sovereign fund. He has stated that U.S. firms are in discussions to return to Russia. However, lawyers and investors insist that sanctions need to be lifted first before any significant influx takes place. The Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said to the Izvestia newspaper on Friday that there had been no requests for foreign companies to return. Siluanov stated that "there are no applications yet for entry, but I sense that the situation is evolving and interest is growing in investing in Russia." Some analysts have also raised concerns over property rights. According to two sources in Russia's banking and energy sectors, some companies could be interested in returning if they can make money but not at the moment. Since 2022, the state has taken over foreign assets owned by Danone, a French yoghurt manufacturer and Carlsberg, a Danish brewery. These assets have been sold to Kremlin friendly buyers. $1 = 78.4955 Russian Roubles (Reporting and writing by Anastasia Lyrchikova. Editing by Toby Chopra).
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Sources say that Congo is considering extending the cobalt export prohibition as it considers quotas.
Sources familiar with the discussion say that the Democratic Republic of Congo may extend its ban on cobalt exports as it looks at how to implement quotas in shipments of electric vehicle battery materials. The Congo will likely continue to ban exports of cobalt because it wants to give the government more time to figure out how to distribute the export quotas to mining companies who produce the metal for battery vehicles, according to sources. In February, the world's largest cobalt supplier imposed a ban on exports of cobalt for four months. The ban expires Sunday. It was intended to reduce oversupply in order to revive prices that had fallen by nine years. Glencore, the second largest cobalt producer in the world, has backed a proposal to implement quotas. Glencore, however, has a different position from CMOC Group, which is lobbying for the lifting of the ban. Eurasian Resources Group is another major Congo producer that wants to lift the ban and hears more from the government about how the cobalt export quotas will be implemented. Zack Hartwanger is the head of Commercial, Africa for Swiss commodity trader Open Mineral. Hartwanger stated that "some (in the government) expressed concerns about revenue, employment and informal supply chains." There is tension between industrial policies and economic realities. CMOC and Congo's Ministry of Mines, the top cobalt producing company in the world, did not reply to emailed inquiries. ARECOMS (the Authority for the Regulation and Control of Strategic Mineral Substances' Markets), which is responsible for implementing the export restrictions on cobalt, has not responded to emailed inquiries. CMOC has increased cobalt production at its two mines located in Congo where the battery material can be produced as a copper by-product. This is despite the fact that demand for electric vehicle manufacturers is declining as the growth of the sector slows. In February, the market glut pushed prices down to as little as $10 per pound or $22,000 per ton. Reporting by Felix Njini, Kinshasa; Sonia Rolley and Maxwell Akalaare Adombila. Editing by Rod Nickel.
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Rosatom will explore the construction of a high-capacity reactor in Uzbekistan
Rosatom, the state-owned nuclear corporation of Russia, signed a deal with Uzbekistan’s Atomic Energy Agency on Friday to examine the feasibility and cost of building a nuclear power plant capable enough to generate large amounts in this Central Asian nation. Rosatom has already planned to build smaller nuclear units in Uzbekistan. The agreement was signed with the Uzbek Government at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. Over the weekend, the Kazakh government also asked the Russian energy company to lead a group to build the country's first nuclear power station. The five former Soviet Central Asian republics do not have any nuclear power plants, despite the fact that Uzbekistan, and its neighbor Kazakhstan, who are both uranium-producing countries, have said for years that their economies, which are growing, need them. The Uzbekistan facility will use two VVER-1000 Russian reactors with the option to expand to four. In May of last year, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a deal with Uzbek president Shavkat Miziyoyev to build smaller plants in Uzbekistan. Each plant will have a 55 megawatt capacity. Alexei Likhachev, the head of Rosatom, said on Friday that Rosatom is discussing building two nuclear reactors with low power and two with high power in Uzbekistan. Likhachev, a reporter in St. Petersburg, told reporters that the small modular nuclear plant in Uzbekistan was the first export of modern small power plants in the world. Likhachev said that the plants will help Uzbekistan meet its increasing electricity needs. He told journalists that the company had also approved a preliminary roadmap for two units in Kazakhstan using Russian VVER-1200 nuclear reactors.
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Brazil will push for climate targets from local governments and corporations at the COP30
Brazil, the COP30 President, proposed on Friday that pledges of emissions reductions be expanded to include companies, states and cities. This was to bolster climate efforts after the U.S. withdrew from the Paris Agreement. Brazilian diplomats working on the climate summit are working closely with U.N. officials to encourage countries to submit revised targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions before September. Many missed the deadline of February. In the Paris Accord, where almost all countries agreed to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius or less from pre-industrial levels by 2050, it is required that these targets be submitted and updated every few years. In a Friday letter, COP30 president Ambassador Andre Correa do Lago suggested widening the pathway for reducing carbon emissions by creating a global NDC that would include targets from different actors, and not just countries. This would transform the Global Stocktake – the process of reviewing the Paris Agreement progress. Lago proposed the term GDC, or "globally-determined contribution," to describe the expanded initiative. Lago didn't explicitly frame the initiative in response to U.S. policies changes. However, he did acknowledge that it would allow U.S. businesses and local governments to participate who have maintained their commitment to curbing climate change despite Trump administration’s formal withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. Lago added that the proposal will also encourage countries to adopt more ambitious emission targets. The Brazilian diplomat stated that private sector actors are often more aggressive in their climate actions than governments. Governments, he said, are more vulnerable to factors such as oil companies' role in boosting economic growth and the cost of transforming the electricity grids. Dan Ioschpe is a Brazilian businessman who was appointed "climate champion" for COP30. He said that the initiative will provide clarity to non-state actors so they can align themselves with Paris Agreement goals. Ioschpe stated that "not only in the United States but also in other countries where national governments are not as involved, we see governors, mayors and the private sectors extremely involved." The Paris accord will be celebrated in November in the Amazonian town of Belem. (Reporting, writing and editing by Lisandra paraguassu; Editing by Manuela Andreonim; Editing by William Maclean).
Oil plunges and stocks rise after Trump Middle East pause
The stock markets rose on Friday, while oil was headed for its largest daily drop since April as President Donald Trump delayed a decision about U.S. involvement in the Israel/Iran conflict.
This week, the Middle East has again been a major factor in the top world indexes.
The main European bourses all rose between 0.5%-1.4% after similar gains in Asia. However, it was still unclear whether this would be enough for MSCI to avoid a second consecutive weekly loss.
Israel bombed Iranian targets and Iran fired missiles against Israel overnight, as the war that has been going on for a week continued. But Friday's market movements, which included a slight drop in the US dollar, revealed reassurance.
The White House's announcement on Thursday that Trump would decide whether to get the U.S. involved in the war in two weeks, rather than immediately, was the main factor.
The European Foreign Ministers met their Iranian counterparts in Geneva, Friday. They were seeking to return diplomacy on the disputed nuclear program.
Oil prices have dropped to $76.10 a barrel due to the relief that the U.S. is not rushing into the conflict, but they are still up by 4% this week and 20% in the last month.
Derek Halpenny, MUFG's strategist, said: "Brent crude has fallen 2.5% today as a clear sign that concerns over an imminent escalation of the Israel/Iran Conflict have eased."
Gold, another safe-haven investment for traders, also fell on the day. Nasdaq, S&P500, and Dow futures all rose as Wall Street was preparing to resume after Thursday's closure.
Asian shares gained 0.5% over night thanks to a 1.2% increase in Hong Kong's Hang Seng. The stimulus plans of newly elected president Lee Jae Myung also saw South Korea's Kospi surpass 3,000 points for first time since 2022.
China's central banks kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged as was widely expected in Beijing. Meanwhile, data from Japan revealed that core inflation in Japan hit a 2-year high in may, putting pressure on the Bank of Japan.
This in turn helped to lift the yen, and in Tokyo, the Nikkei stock market which is heavily export-oriented fell.
OIL RETREATS
The dollar ended a positive week with a slight decline, as the euro was up 0.3% versus the U.S. dollar at $1.1527. And the pound was 0.2% higher at £1.3494.
The U.S. Bond market, which also was closed on Thursday, resumed its trading, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.39%. German 10-year yields, which are Europe's benchmark borrowing rate, dropped 2.5 basis points to 2.49 percent.
Gold prices fell 0.8%, to $3,345 per ounce. This means that they will lose 2.5% on a weekly basis.
The main focus of the commodity markets remained oil. Brent crude futures in London were down $2.45 or about 3% at $76.43 per barrel, but they are still on course to finish the week with a gain of almost 3%.
PVM analyst John Evans stated that oil producers' nightmare scenario was Iran or its proxy could blockade the Strait of Hormuz. This has never occurred and 20 million barrels are shipped through this route each day.
JPMorgan estimates this amounts to approximately 20% of global oil trade, and 30% of oil traded by sea.
Francesco Arcangeli, of JPMorgan, wrote in a report that the market currently believes there is a low probability for this to happen. He estimated that oil prices could rise to $120-$130 per barrel if the Strait was completely closed.
(source: Reuters)