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No relief for US-China Trade Trance

Johann M. Cherian gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets.

The mood of European investors is set to change as a result of the rapidly increasing tensions in Middle East, and another tariff salvo by U.S. president Donald Trump. This has triggered a wave dollar selling and risk off moves.

The U.S. and China talks, which were much hyped up, ended in a fragile truce. This may have temporarily quelled the simmering tensions on trade between the two largest economies of the world. However the investors are still uneasy due to the lack details.

China's President Xi Jinping has not yet approved the 'deal.' Details on the new tariffs and how they will be implemented have yet to be worked out. Also, U.S. restrictions on exporting high-end artificial Intelligence chips remain in place.

Trump has returned to his unilateral policymaking style as the deadline for worldwide tariffs on July 8 is fast approaching. He said that he will send letters to dozens of countries in one to two week outlining trade terms, which they can accept or reject.

The markets will be looking for another TACO Moment.

Companies are beginning to raise the alarm, even though inflation reports from the past do not reflect current price pressures. Inditex, Zara's owner, was the latest company to release a disappointing quarter report and warn of trade uncertainty.

As if investors didn't have enough to deal with, geopolitical tensions are escalating in the Middle East, increasing the risk of inflation as crude prices rise.

Brent and West Texas Intermediate futures reached two-month highs, each at nearly $70 per barrel.

As my colleague Jamie McGeever has pointed out, the valuations of stocks and equities are starting to look stretched. This increases the risk to investors in case of a selloff.

Futures in Europe were down by 0.7% while those in the U.S. point to a lower opening on Thursday. However, the benchmark indexes of the two regions are only 2% apart from their respective records highs.

Investors continue to doubt the dollar's status as a safe-haven currency. The euro reached a seven-week peak on Thursday and has gained 11% in 2018. It is poised to make its largest annual gain since 2017.

Next week's central bank bonanza could shed more light on global economic outlook. Next week, the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England will announce their policy decisions.

Investors will also be watching for UK economic data, including the gross domestic product (GDP) and manufacturing output reports later that day. Both reports are expected to show a decrease in activity on an annual basis. This is due to the BoE’s cautious approach towards monetary policy ease.

Thursday's key developments could give investors more guidance on the markets.

- In UK: data on GDP, industrial production, manufacturing output, and trade

In the U.S., data on producer inflation, initial weekly claims for unemployment and an auction of bonds for 30 years worth $22 billion

- Policymakers including David Jacobs, Reserve Bank of Australia and Jose Luis Escriva of the ECB are expected to speak.

- UniCredit CEO says Commerzbank is too expensive, and that there are few chances of a BPM deal.

- Oracle raises annual forecast on robust cloud services demand

Fitch downgrades Warner Bros credit rating to junk on the split-up

(source: Reuters)