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Investors watch US-China trade progress to see if it can bring about a change in the dollar and stock prices

As trade talks between China and the United States continued for a second consecutive day, investors had reason to believe that tensions may be easing between the two world's largest economies.

U.S. commerce secretary Howard Lutnick stated that discussions between the two parties were going well. President Donald Trump put a positive spin after the Monday session.

Lutnick met with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, U.S. trade representative Jamie Greer and their Chinese counterparts at the London International Trade Fair.

Markets will likely be relieved if the talks progress, given Trump's frequently changing tariff announcements. These have disrupted supply chain and threatened to stymie global growth.

The MSCI All-Country World Index, which reflects world stocks, reached near-record highs. Meanwhile, the dollar was stable against a variety of currencies.

"While market participants clearly take a half-full outlook on the outlook, both in terms of trade policy and more generally, we do not think this should be interpreted as an opinion that tariffs are going to be completely unwound," Jonas Goltermann said, deputy chief markets analyst at Capital Economics.

Goltermann expects U.S. duty on Chinese goods will settle at around 40 percent, while the majority of analysts say that the 10% universal levy on imported products into the United States will remain.

Investors were worried about the new proposals by the Swiss government to require the bank to have $26 billion extra in capital.

U.S. Stock futures are trading about 0.1% higher.

In Tokyo, Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato announced that policymakers are looking into measures to promote the domestic ownership of Japanese Government Bonds. This comes a day following reports that Japan was considering buying back super-long government bond issued in previous years at low interest rates.

The yield for the 10-year JGB remained flat at 1.47%. Meanwhile, 30-year yields increased by 1 bp to 2.92% after a decline from a record high of 3.18 % in late May.

The dollar was essentially unchanged for the day at 144.5 yen. Meanwhile, the euro rose 0.1% to $1.1428. After weak UK employment figures, the pound fell 0.3% to $1.35.

QUALITY, NOT SIZE

Investors' confidence in U.S. assets has been eroded by Trump's unpredictable trade policies, and concerns over Washington's increasing debt. The dollar is down more than 8% so far this year.

The deficit will remain stable, and the Americans won't be able to blow up their fiscal situation. Samy Chaar is an economist with Lombard Odier.

You'll have macropayoffs if you spend and invest on productive investments. You'll develop an industry, strengthen your economy, create jobs. "If you reduce revenues by cutting taxes on people that don't require the money, then they won't consume more or invest more. So the macropayoff is limited," said he.

U.S. Treasuries yielded around 4.45% on Monday, down by 3.4 basis points.

The impact of tariffs on the price of goods could be revealed by data on U.S. Consumer Inflation for May, due to be released on Wednesday.

The report on the producer price index will be published a day after.

Kevin Ford, Convera’s FX and macrostrategist, said that the May CPI and PPI figures in the United States will be closely examined for any signs of inflationary pressures.

If core CPI continues to be elevated, rate cuts may not occur at the FOMC meeting on June 18.

The traders expect that the Fed will leave rates unchanged during its next policy meeting. By December, only 44 bps of easing had been priced in.

Brent crude rose 0.5% to $67.30 a barrel on commodity markets due to optimism that the U.S. China talks scheduled for Tuesday could reduce trade tensions. Gold spot rose 0.4%, to $3341 per ounce.

(source: Reuters)