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Dollar tepid ahead of US-China talks

The dollar was on alert on Tuesday, as the United States and China continued their trade negotiations for a second consecutive day. There were some tentative signs that tensions could be easing between the two world's largest economies.

The U.S. president Donald Trump gave a positive spin to the discussions at Lancaster House, London. They ended for the evening on Monday but were scheduled to resume at 9am GMT on Tuesday.

The fact that the market is still near record highs suggests that the market has accepted what Trump said. When you consider the comments of Lutnick and Bessent it appears to me that they're relatively satisfied with the progress," said Tony Sycamore.

The market likes to hear concrete news.

Investors have been focusing on the progress of talks as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, along with U.S. trade representative Jamieson Greer, were about to meet their Chinese counterparts for the second time.

Markets will likely be relieved if the talks progress, given that Trump's tariffs have been chaotic and the swings in Sino/U.S. relations have hampered global growth.

In Asia, stocks advanced further than they had at the beginning of the week.

Nasdaq's futures rose 0.62%, while MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific index outside Japan gained 0.5%. S&P futures rose 0.43%.

Both the FTSE and EUROSTOXX futures added about 0.1% each.

After hearing that Japan was considering purchasing some of the super-long government securities issued at low rates in the past, the Japanese bond market also received attention.

Early trade saw the yield of the 10-year JGB drop one basis point, to 1.46%. The 30-year yield fell 5 bps, to 2.86%.

Last month, yields on super-long JGBs reached record levels due to the waning demand from traditional investors such as life insurance companies and concerns over rising global debt levels.

Justin Heng is a rates strategist for HSBC Global Investor Research in APAC. He said that the volatility of the super-long segment stems from a supply/demand imbalance which has been brewing ever since the BOJ began to normalise its balance sheet.

Katsunobu Kato, the Japanese Finance Minister, said that on Tuesday he would implement appropriate debt management strategies while working closely with market participants.

After falling on Monday, the dollar tried to gain ground in currencies.

The dollar rose 0.45% against the yen to 145.25. The euro dropped 0.28%, to $1.1387. Sterling fell 0.2%, to $1.3523.

Investors' confidence in U.S. assets has been eroded by Trump's unpredictable trade policies, and concerns over Washington's increasing debt. The dollar is down more than 8% this year.

The greenback's next test will come on Wednesday when the U.S. Inflation data is released. The expectation is that core consumer prices will have increased slightly in May. This could put a halt to bets on imminent Federal Reserve rate reductions.

The report on the producer price index will be published a day after.

Kevin Ford, Convera’s FX and macrostrategist, said that the May CPI and PPI figures in the United States will be closely examined for any signs of inflationary pressures.

If core CPI continues to be elevated, rate cuts may not occur at the FOMC meeting on June 18.

The Fed is expected to hold rates at its next policy meeting, but traders have priced in roughly 44 basis points of rate easing for December.

Brent crude futures gained 0.24%, to $67.20 per barrel.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was last up 0.25 percent at $65.45 a barrel, after reaching a session high of more than two months earlier.

Spot gold dropped 0.5% to $3.310.40 per ounce.

(source: Reuters)