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Iran and the U.S. face each other without a Plan B when nuclear redlines collide

Three Iranian sources stated on Tuesday that the clerical leaders lack a clear plan in case efforts to settle a decades-long conflict fail. Iran's "Plan B" may be to turn to China or Russia if negotiations fail due conflicting redlines, according sources. However, with Beijing and Washington engaged in a trade war and Moscow distracted by its war in Ukraine the backup plan of Tehran appears unsteady.

"Plan B" is to continue with the strategy prior to the start of the talks. Iran will not escalate tensions and is prepared to defend itself, a senior Iranian official stated.

"The strategy includes strengthening the ties with allies such as Russia and China." Ayatollah Ayatollah Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, rejected the U.S. demand to stop uranium enrichment on Tuesday as "excessive" and "outrageous", warning that talks would not produce results.

After four rounds, there are still a number of obstacles to overcome. Tehran will not ship its entire stockpile of highly enriched Uranium abroad, or even engage in talks about its ballistic missile program. This is according to two Iranian officials and an European diplomat.

Oman's Foreign Minister said that the fifth round of the World Cup will be held in Rome on May 23.

A lack of trust between the two sides, and Donald Trump's decision in 2015 to withdraw from an accord with major world powers, has made it more important for Iran to get guarantees that Washington won't renege on any future agreement.

Iran's clerical leadership is facing mounting challenges - including energy and water shortages; a falling currency; military losses in the region and growing fears that Israel will attack its nuclear sites. All of these are exacerbated by Trump’s hardline policies. Trump has been reviving a "maximum-pressure" campaign against Tehran, which includes tightened sanctions and threats of military action, since February. According to the sources, Iran's leaders "have no other option" but to sign a new agreement in order for them not face economic chaos that could threaten their rule.

The Islamic Republic has been exposed to anger by the public after protests against social repression, economic hardship and harsh crackdowns.

Iran's economy will not recover without lifting the sanctions that prevent free oil sales, and allowing access to funds. The second official said, as did others, due to the sensitive nature of this issue.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry was not available to comment immediately.

A THORNY TRAIL

Wendy Sherman, former U.S. The former U.S. Undersecretary of Political Affairs, who led the U.S. negotiation team that achieved the 2015 agreement between Tehran and six major world powers, stated that it was impossible to persuade Tehran to "dismantle their nuclear programme and to give up on their enrichment - even though this would be ideal".

She said: "So, that means that they will reach an impasse and that we could face war. I don't believe, quite frankly that President Trump is looking forward to that because he campaigned for a peace-oriented president."

Even if the enrichment dispute narrows, lifting of sanctions is still fraught. The U.S. favors gradual removal of nuclear-related restrictions, while Tehran insists on immediate removal.

Since 2018, sanctions have been imposed on dozens of Iranian institutions that are vital to the country's economy. These include its central bank, national oil company and other important Iranian institutions.

Sherman responded that Iran would "continue to sell oil to China, India, and other countries, in order to circumvent sanctions". China has been Iran's main oil buyer despite the sanctions. This has helped to stave off an economic collapse. But Trump's increased pressure on Chinese trade entities, and tankers, threatens to disrupt these exports.

Analysts warn of the limits to China and Russia's assistance. China may insist on lower prices for Iranian oil as the global demand for oil weakens.

Beijing and Moscow cannot protect Iran from unilateral U.S. or EU sanctions if talks fail - something both Tehran and Washington are hoping to avoid.

France, Britain, and Germany have all warned that they will reimpose U.N. sanction if a deal is not reached quickly, despite not being part of the U.S. Iran talks. According to the U.N. resolution of the 2015 nuclear agreement, the E3 has until October 18th to activate the "snapback" mechanism before the resolution expires.

Diplomats and a document seen may suggest that the E3 nations could do this by August, if a deal is not reached by then.

Diplomats warn, that a deal prior to then could mean, at best, a political framework similar to 2013 in which both sides made some immediate concessions, giving time for more detailed negotiations.

A senior European official stated that "there is no reason" to believe it would take less time in comparison with the 18-month period of 2013. This is especially true when you consider the fact that the geopolitical and parameters are more complex now. (Written by Parisa hafezi and John Irish, edited by Stephen Coates).

(source: Reuters)