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Dollar drops as global stocks rise after US inflation data

The dollar dropped and the major U.S. indexes rose on Tuesday, after data showed that U.S. consumer prices increased less than expected in March. This was when President Donald Trump announced a series of tariffs which have caused havoc to global markets.

European shares rose for the fourth session in a row, while global stocks also rose.

Crude oil prices increased, thanks to a temporary reduction in U.S. - China tariffs.

On Monday, the U.S. announced that it would suspend its trade war with China for 90 days. It will also reduce reciprocal duties as well as other measures. They will continue to negotiate a permanent agreement.

The agreement has reignited the appetite of investors for stocks, commodities and cryptocurrencies. Tuesday's inflation numbers have also helped fuel this move.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that its consumer price index increased by 0.2% in April. This brings the annual growth down to 2.3%, from 2.4%.

Economists surveyed by predicted a rise of 0.3% per month and 2.4% annually.

Bill Adams, chief economics for Comerica Bank, Dallas, wrote in a letter that the report was good. In 2025, inflation should be manageable by most consumers and business.

Wall Street saw the S&P 500, and Nasdaq advance on the back of softer than expected inflation figures and the easing in U.S. China trade tensions. The S&P rose 54.07, or 0.92% to 5,898.13 while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 329.41, or 1.76 %, to 19,038.10.

Under pressure from UnitedHealth, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 177.27, or 0.42% to 42,233.19. The firm had suspended its annual forecast, and its CEO resigned.

Dollar retreated from its sharp gains of the previous session due to the inflation data. Last seen down by 0.69% versus a basket.

The euro increased by 0.85% to $1.1181.

Peter Cardillo is the chief market economist of Spartan Capital, a New York-based firm.

The European stock market ended the day slightly higher with a 0.1% gain, their highest level since March.

Emerging Market stocks dropped 4.28 points or 0.37% to 1,157.57.

The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan fell by 0.51% to 603.95 while Japan's Nikkei gained 1.43% to 38,183.26.

After the Geneva talks, the U.S. announced it would reduce tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, and China said that it would lower duties on U.S. imported goods from 125% to 10%.

The change in U.S. China trade relations has caused traders to lower their expectations of Federal Reserve rate reductions, believing that policymakers will have more flexibility to lower rates as inflation risks decrease.

The traders are now pricing in a 56 basis point reduction this year. This is down from the forecasts of over 100 basis points made in April when concerns about Trump's tariffs reached their highest level.

Cardillo stated that "the Fed is on the right track and until there are any real changes in terms of ending the trade war by June, a rate cut in June remains in doubt."

Economists and fund managers have stated that the 90-day break is welcomed, but it hasn't changed the larger picture.

Christopher Hodge said that the tariffs would still be higher after all was said and done and this will have a negative impact on U.S. economic growth.

The ratings agency Fitch estimates that the U.S. tariff rate has dropped to 13.1% from 22.8% before the agreement, but is still above the 2.3% at the end 2024.

The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes increased by 4.8 basis point to 4.505%. And the yield of the 2-year note, which moves typically in line with expectations about interest rates for the Federal Reserve rose by 1.9 basis point to 4.021%.

Spot gold rose 0.41%, to $3,246.82 per ounce. U.S. Gold Futures closed 0.6% higher, at $3,247.80.

U.S. crude oil rose by 2.81%, to $63.69 per barrel. Brent crude increased to $66.63 a barrel, an increase of 2.57%.

(source: Reuters)