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U.S. stock prices rise, oil falls amid fears of recession and trade talks
Wall Street stocks rose on Tuesday, while gold and crude prices fell as investors considered corporate earnings, progress in President Donald Trump's trade negotiations and the increased likelihood of a recession. The Dow Jones was the leader among all three major U.S. indexes, which were modestly up. The S&P 500 is on course to record its sixth consecutive session of gains. The Canadian election was a rebuke of Trump's brutal trade policies and his comments about annexing Canada to become the United States' 51st state. Tim Ghriskey is a senior portfolio strategist with Ingalls & Snyder, based in New York. "They will be very strict on trade issues. "I think they are insulted that Trump wants them to become the 51st State." U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent stated on Tuesday that tariff talks are in progress and that Beijing is responsible for U.S. China trade negotiations. He did not anticipate supply chain disruptions from trade disputes. The Trump administration took measures to reduce the impact on automotive tariffs for foreign parts that are used in U.S. manufactured cars. Two sources with knowledge of the matter have confirmed that China has exempted U.S. imports from the 125% tariff. This is the latest indication that the situation regarding tariffs can change. Chris Wolfe is the chief investment officer of Pennington Partners, a firm in Bethesda. He said that the markets were weak and aimless when they started the day. But then, bullet points or discussions from the White House are released and the market starts to move. Wolfe said, "I think it shows how closely we are tied to the politics and policies that evolve in real-time." The focus, I believe, is on tariffs, potential deals, and tariff reductions. This week, the first-quarter reporting season will be in full swing with four of "Magnificent 7" artificial intelligence megacap stocks, Meta Platforms (Microsoft), Apple, and Amazon.com, releasing high-profile reports. Consumer confidence has deteriorated more than expected, and the number of job openings is down 3.9%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 343.88 points or 0.85% to 40,571.47. The S&P 500 gained 35.86 points or 0.65% to 5,564.67, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 115.01 or 0.66% to 17,481.15. Investors focused on the way companies were assessing the impact of U.S. Tariffs. The MSCI index of global stocks rose by 4.53 points or 0.55% to 831.74. The pan-European STOXX 600 Index rose by 0.36% while Europe's FTSEurofirst 300 Index rose by 7.36 points or 0.35%. Emerging market stocks increased by 4.04 points or 0.37% to 1,106.61. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan closed up by 0.36% to 575.86. Japan's Nikkei gained 134.25 or 0.38% to 35,839.99. Bessent’s comments about progress in trade negotiations and the prospect of further tariff deals boosted the dollar, but it was still on track for its biggest monthly decline against the euro since Nov 2022. The Canadian dollar softened as the Liberals of Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney retained power after Monday's elections. The dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket of currencies, including the yen, euro and pound sterling) rose by 0.23%, reaching 99.26. However, the euro fell by 0.37%, falling to $1.1379. The dollar gained 0.23% against the Japanese yen to 142.33. The dollar fell 0.32%, to $1.3396. The Mexican peso rose 0.09% against the dollar to 19.574. The Canadian dollar fell 0.12%, to C$1.38 for every U.S. Dollar. On the back of economic data that were weaker than expected, the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds fell for the sixth consecutive day. The yield fell 3.9 basis point to 4,177%, from 4.216% at the end of Monday. The 30-year bond rate fell 4.5 basis point to 4,648%, from 4,693% at the end of Monday. The yield on the 2-year bond, which is usually in line with expectations of interest rates for the Federal Reserve (Federal Reserve), fell by 2.5 basis points, to 3.66% from 3.685% at late Monday. Prices of oil fell on concerns about a global economic recession, and a dampening in demand because of Trump's trade conflict. Brent crude settled at $64.25 a barrel, down by 2.44%. U.S. crude dropped 2.63% on the day to settle at $60.42 a barrel. The dollar gained in value, while gold prices declined. Spot gold dropped 0.69% to $3318.74 per ounce. U.S. Gold Futures dropped 0.47% to an ounce of $3,317.40.
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Canadian lender RBC abandons sustainability finance goals citing Competition Act
Royal Bank of Canada announced on Tuesday it will abandon its sustainable financing goals. The bank cited recent changes in Canada's Competition Act that require companies prove their environmental claims. In its report on sustainability for 2024, published on Tuesday, Canada's largest lender stated that "we have reviewed our method and concluded that it might not have accurately measured certain of sustainable finance activities presented on a cumulative basis." RBC has committed to facilitate C$500 Billion ($361,19 billion) of sustainable financing by 2025. The refreshed climate strategy, it says, is "an action-oriented plan". The bank stated that the changes made to the Canadian Competition Act last year, which targeted greenwashing and environmental statements, prevented the bank from disclosing certain sustainability disclosures or the progress being achieved. The bank stated that recent amendments to Canada’s Competition Act have limited the information it can share about certain sustainability disclosures, and the progress made. It has also restricted its ability to report publicly on various metrics. The bank was able to provide a method to calculate the energy supply ratio - the ratio of funding for low carbon energy projects to their financing of fossil fuel projects. The bank stated that it will continue to monitor the ratio and report it internally. RBC, along with US counterparts Citigroup and JPMorgan, agreed to disclose this metric after an agreement was reached with the New York City Comptroller RBC, along with other large banks, has left the Net-Zero Banking Alliance. This initiative was sponsored by the United Nations and set up Mark Carney who, after winning an election Monday, will remain as Canada's Prime Minister. Climate advocacy groups say that Carney now has the responsibility to improve the sustainable and climate finance goals in the financial industry. Richard Brooks, director of climate finance at Stand.earth in Toronto, said that the banks were not leading. The campaigners are concerned that banks will use a change in the political climate - particularly under U.S. president Donald Trump - to dilute their commitment to decarbonise their portfolios.
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American Battery Technology receives $900 Million in loan interest for lithium mining project
American Battery Technology announced on Tuesday that it had received a letter from the U.S. Export-Import Bank for $900,000,000 in financing. This will be used to build its lithium mine and refinery located in Nevada. The shares of the important battery materials company rose nearly 20%. China has imposed restrictions on exports of rare earth elements earlier this month. This will affect the supply to Western countries for electronics, energy and defense production. In March, U.S. president Donald Trump invoked his emergency powers to increase domestic production of vital minerals as part a broader effort to counter China's near total control of the industry. The executive order instructed federal agencies, such as EXIM to unlock permits, funding, and offtake agreements in critical minerals, which includes rare earths. EXIM also expressed its willingness to lend up to $553,000,000 for the Rare Element Resources Bear Lodge Project, which is a rare earths project in northeast Wyoming. The CEO of American Battery Technology, Ryan Melsert, said that the proposed financial assistance could greatly accelerate commercialization for our critical domestic mineral mine and refinery. Perpetua Resources received an EXIM letter of interest in 2024 for a loan up to $1.8billion to develop a gold and antimony mine in northern Idaho. (Reporting from Pooja Menon, Bengaluru. Editing by Alan Barona.)
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Entergy, the electric utility in South America, is looking to add more nuclear energy.
Entergy, the U.S. electric company, is planning to upgrade its existing nuclear plants in the South of the United States while considering advanced nuclear technology. This was announced by executives on Tuesday. In recent years, U.S. Nuclear Power, which is almost carbon-free, has become increasingly popular, especially as Big Tech struggles to balance its growing electricity demands with climate-driven energy commitments. Entergy announced on a conference call with investors that it recently completed a refueling shutdown at its River Bend Nuclear Plant and is planning work to clear the site for the expansion of the 967 megawatt St. Francisville plant in Louisiana by approximately 40 MW. The company plans to upgrade its fleet in order to add 275 MW nuclear power. The company has also obtained a permit to build a new reactor in Mississippi, and is currently in discussions with potential customers of the power produced by a possible plant. The United States has not tested advanced nuclear technologies like small modular reactors. Cost overruns have been common, and some nuclear projects were abandoned due to regulatory restrictions. Drew Marsh, CEO of Entergy, stated on the phone that Entergy tries to manage construction risks with any nuclear project. "We must be able solve the commercial question upfront to move nuclear forward at a faster pace," Marsh said. (Reporting and editing by Laila KEARNEY)
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Rwanda escorts Southern Africa soldiers from Congo to Tanzania
Rwanda escorted troops of Southern African force to Tanzania as they left eastern Democratic Republic of Congo on Tuesday, Rwanda's Foreign Minister and Army spokesperson announced. The Southern African Development Community, which is composed of 16 member states, announced in mid-March that it had ended the mission of its SAMIDRC force and was beginning a gradual withdrawal from Congo. The force was deployed to help Kinshasa fight rebel groups on the eastern borderlands of Congo in December 2023. This prompted protests from the Rwandan government who said that the deployment would worsen the conflict. The presence of SAMIDRC forces was always a complicating element in the conflict. Today's withdrawal is a positive step towards the peace process, said Rwandan Foreign Ministry Olivier Nduhungirehe on X. After Goma, the largest city in eastern Congo, fell in February to M23 rebels supported by Rwanda, many SAMIDRC troops sought refuge in U.N. Peacekeeping bases. Ronald Rwivanga, a spokesperson for the Rwandan army, said that a portion had left on Tuesday and their convoy was expected to arrive in Tanzania "in a few hours". Witnesses reported that the Rwandan military police and army escorted 20 vehicles across the Congo border to the Rwandan city of Gisenyi. Witnesses said that the convoy was carrying what looked like military equipment, along with Tanzanians and South African soldiers. The witness said that an ambulance in the convoy was marked with SAMIDRC and the drivers informed the bystanders that the vehicles were headed to Tanzania. M23 sources claim that only half the SAMIDRC forces in Goma had left Congo by Tuesday. He said the rest would be following later. M23 has taken control of eastern Congo's largest cities in January, escalating a conflict that began in Rwanda in 1994 and a struggle to control Congo's vast minerals resources. The offensive has caused thousands of deaths and hundreds of thousands of refugees to flee. Rwanda denies U.N. accusations that it supports the M23 militia with troops and arms, claiming its forces act in self-defence to defend themselves against Congo's military and affiliated militias. In March 2024, Rwanda requested that the African Union and their partners refrain from supporting SAMIDRC. They accused the force of fighting with a Congolese coalition which included fighters connected to the Rwandan genocide. Angola, Qatar and Congo have all tried to mediate the conflict but so far, they have failed. Congo and Rwanda, in an agreement signed last Friday in Washington, committed to a draft of a peace accord by May 2.
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Ghana arrests 3 Indians suspected of running a gold-smuggling network
The West African nation's gold trading regulator announced on Tuesday that three Indian nationals were arrested on suspicion of running a gold smuggling ring. Authorities believe the gang has been smuggling tons of gold out of Ghana for more than a decade. GoldBod spokesperson said that the three plead guilty to their charges and will be held in custody until May 12th, when a hearing is scheduled. Smuggling is responsible for the loss of billions of dollars worth of gold in Ghana and other African countries every year. In March, the country created a new government agency called GoldBod to increase small-scale miner's earnings and reduce smuggling. Foreign companies are only allowed to purchase precious metals from GoldBod under the new system. On X, the regulator reported that the suspects – aged 35, 22, and 42 – were arrested at their residence in Ghana’s southern city, Kumasi. Investigators claim this was converted into an illegal gold trading centre. GoldBod said it was also in possession of 1.9 millions cedis (134,000 dollars), 4,500 rupees (53 dollars), 4.363 kilograms gold, two counting machine, a CCTV recording, and an Indian passport. GoldBod was not given any proof of residence, work authorizations or tax payments by the suspects. GoldBod's spokesperson Prince Kwame minkah said, "Much of this smuggled Gold is exported to India and China. We lose," he added. $1 = 14.1450 Ghanian cedi and 85.1270 Indian Rupees (Reporting by Emmanuel Bruce, Editing by Maxwell Akalaare Adombila Anait Miridzhanian, Hugh Lawson).
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U.S. stock fluctuates, oil drops amid earnings and trade talks
Wall Street was in a state of flux on Tuesday, with gains and losses, as investors tried to balance corporate earnings, progress made by President Donald Trump’s multi-fronted tariff negotiations and the generally negative economic data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average led the way, while all three major U.S. indexes rose modestly. Canada's election was a rebuke of U.S. president Donald Trump's brutal trade policies and his comments about annexing Canada to become the 51st State in the United States. Tim Ghriskey is a senior portfolio strategist with Ingalls & Snyder, based in New York. "They will be very strict on trade issues. They're probably insulted that Trump wants them to be the 51st State. Ghriskey said, "I hope the rhetoric coming out of the White House subsides." U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent stated on Tuesday that tariff talks were ongoing. He said that Beijing was responsible for the U.S. China trade negotiations and that he did not expect any disruptions to supply chains as a result of these disputes. According to two sources with knowledge of the situation, China has excluded ethane imports from its 125% tariff, the latest indication that the tariff situation remains fluid. This week, the first-quarter reporting period is in full swing. This week, four of the "Magnificent 7" artificial intelligence megacap stocks are expected to release their results: Meta Platforms (Microsoft), Apple, and Amazon.com. Consumer confidence has deteriorated more than expected, and the number of job openings is down 3.9%. Ghriskey stated that "consumer confidence has also dropped significantly." He added, "I think there's a lot of nervousness in the economy because of these trade issues and tariff issues." "There will be some pain at the consumer level." The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 225.92, or 0.56 percent, to 40.453.51. The S&P 500 gained 10.79, or 0.19 percent, to 5,539.54. And the Nasdaq Composite increased by 13.18, or 0.07 percent, to 17.378.36. Investors pared back initial gains in European shares as they scrutinized corporate earnings and kept an eye on tariff developments. The MSCI index of global stocks rose by 2.26 points or 0.27% to 829.47. The pan-European STOXX 600 Index rose 0.38% while Europe's broad FTSEurofirst 300 Index rose 8.18 points or 0.39%. Emerging market stocks increased 4.72 points or 0.43% to 1,107.28. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan closed up by 0.34%, at 575.73. Japan's Nikkei gained 134.25, or 0.38% points, to 35,839.99. The dollar rose after Bessent made his comments about progress in trade negotiations, but it was still on track to record its largest two-month drop in over 20 years. The Canadian loonie weakened against the dollar after the Liberals of Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney retained power following the election on Monday. This was fueled by the backlash from Trump's tariffs, and his comments about Canada becoming the 51st State. The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket including the yen, the euro and other currencies) rose by 0.12%, to 99.16. However, the euro fell by 0.21%, at $1.1397. The dollar gained 0.11% against the Japanese yen to 142.18. The dollar fell 0.31%, to $1.3397. The Mexican peso rose 0.03% against the dollar to 19.586. The Canadian dollar fell 0.22% against the greenback, to C$1.39 a dollar. The yields on U.S. Treasury 10-year bonds fell for the sixth consecutive day, reaching a new three-week-low following weaker than expected economic data. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes dropped 3.7 basis points from 4.216% to 4.179% late on Monday. The 30-year bond rate fell 2.9 basis point to 4.6636%, from 4.693% at the end of Monday. The yield on the 2-year bond, which is usually in line with expectations of interest rates for the Federal Reserve (Federal Reserve), fell by 2.5 basis points, to 3.66% from 3.685% at late Monday. Oil prices fell as Trump's multi-fronted trade war increased the probability of a global recession, and fuelled fears that demand would be dampened. U.S. crude dropped 1.93%, to $60.85 per barrel. Brent was down to $64.54 a barrel on the same day. The dollar gained in value, while gold prices declined. Spot gold dropped 0.9% to $3.311.29 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures dropped 0.69% to an ounce of $3,310.00.
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Companies count the costs of blackouts in Spain and Portugal
Business associations and companies started counting the costs as factories, hotels, and stores in Spain and Portugal slowly returned to normal after the massive blackout of the previous day. CEOE, the main Spanish business lobby, estimated that the outage could shave off 1.6 billion euro ($1.82 billion) or 0.1% of gross domestic product. They noted it would take a week or longer for oil refineries to fully resume their operations, and some industrial ovens were damaged. The meat industry estimates losses up to 190 millions of euros due to the loss of power in fridges, among other things. In some parts of Spain, the blackout lasted for more than 12 hour. The sector's association ANGED reported that most food stores operated normally on Tuesday. However, they were still assessing the amount of produce that had gone bad, or how much money had been lost due to card payment systems going offline and ATMs being out of service. Not everyone had the cash to purchase water, canned foods, flashlights and radios. Bank of Spain has confirmed that payments via card have resumed and ATMs are working. Volkswagen's Navarra plant, which employs 4,600 workers, only resumed production at 2.30 p.m. Tuesday, as the industry was facing some of its biggest challenges. A company spokesperson confirmed that the factory had lost about 1,400 vehicles since Monday. Volkswagen's Spanish SEAT brand also reported that production at its Barcelona factory, where 14,000 workers work, had not been fully restored after the power was restored at 1 am local time. Other sectors such as Spain’s vital tourism industry were mostly unaffected. The telecommunications failure has created a "very complex situation", said Jorge Marichal, the chairman of Spain's Hotel Association CEHAT. Many guests sought refuge in hotels. He said that we had a good occupancy rate and were able to assist some public agencies who requested help in accommodating people. Some companies, hoping for a quick fix to the blackout kept their staff on site for hours. Others, like industrial manufacturer Thune Eureka, in northern Spain sent workers home earlier during the blackout. The company's president, Adrian Garcia Aranyos said that his head of IT was a former power grid supervisor in Venezuela, and this had given them an unexpected advantage. "He knew that it would take at least eight... He said that we made a quick decision because of him after an hour without power. $1 = 0.8771 Euros (Reporting and Editing by Andrei Khalip, Barbara Lewis, Aislinn laing, Jesus Aguado)
S&P Global believes that the US and China can breathe easier in their trade war with rivals S&P Global.
S&P Global’s top sovereign analyst said that a trade conflict is unlikely to have a significant impact on the credit ratings of China and the United States. Instead, damage will likely be concentrated in poorer countries or those who are already under downgrade warnings.
S&P confirmed its "stable outlook" on its AA+ U.S. government credit rating, days before Donald Trump announced his massive round of trade tariffs for the global market in early April.
The U.S. government's debt, which is close to 100% of GDP and the fiscal deficit that runs at 6-7% of GDP are its main credit weaknesses. It also highlighted the uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies and trade deals.
Trump's tariffs have led to a reduction in global growth predictions.
S&P managing Director Roberto Sifon Arevalo said that most major economies ratings should be able, for the time being, to handle the pressures.
"At first, there was a flashback of the COVID period and the thought that this is another global crisis."
When you look at the bigger picture, and the transmission channels that are available, it remains a question: Will this be enough to significantly change the creditworthiness of sovereigns worldwide?
This does not mean, however, that the ratings for negative outlooks (the rating agency's term for warnings of a downgrade) will not go down. Or that the outlooks will not be lowered as they have already been in Slovakia and Egypt. More importantly, there shouldn't really be any major surprises.
According to an S&P model based on credit default swap data, investors are currently pricing a five-notch downgrade for the U.S. and a three-notch cut to China's score of A+.
S&P's U.S. credit rating hasn't been lowered since 2011, when it was downgraded from triple-A. China hasn’t seen a cut since 2017, but Fitch, its counterpart, cut Beijing a notch after Trump’s tariffs announcement.
Sifon Arevalo stated that "for China and the U.S., there is room (for ratings)."
He said that it is not the length of time the tariffs will remain in place that will determine how the two countries are rated, but there must be "some sort of resolution" (on tariffs) within the next few months.
In China, it was about how much stimulus the country would inject to offset tariffs.
Big Questions
S&P is concerned more about possible knock-on effects such as a prolonged slump in commodity prices, such as metals and oil. Many countries depend on these commodities for a large part of their income.
Sifon Arevalo stated that "if you have a large swing in commodity price, it has a much greater impact on ratings." Oil prices are 20% lower now than in mid-January.
If Trump follows through with his plans to impose tariffs of 20% on EU countries, European ratings may also be put under further pressure.
He welcomed Germany's plans to spend half a billion euros on defence and infrastructure, but warned that the current trade problems could further erode the already weak economy of the EU.
Sifon Arevalo stated that "if these trade uncertainties are not resolved soon, there will be serious fiscal implications across the continent."
You need growth to support fiscal consolidation. Tariffs are not helpful.
(source: Reuters)