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London Copper pares gains due to concerns about US semiconductor tariffs
London copper prices lost their gains on Monday, weighed down with concerns about President Donald Trump's threats of tariffs against semiconductors. Meanwhile, hopes for Chinese stimulus helped to limit losses. As of 0404 GMT the benchmark three-month price for copper on the London Metal Exchange was up by 0.1% to $9,160 per metric tonne, after reaching its highest level in over a week. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's (SHFE) most traded copper contract rose by 1.5%, to $75,920 yuan per ton ($10,389.61). The dollar index dropped 0.4% against its competitors. The dollar is weaker, making commodities priced in greenbacks cheaper for buyers of other currencies. Trump announced on Sunday that he will announce tariffs for imported semiconductors in the coming week. He also said there would be some flexibility with certain companies. Trump's desire to reset the trade in semiconductors will probably result in a short-term exclusion of computers and smartphones from the reciprocal tariffs he imposes on China. BMI, an arm of Fitch Solutions, said that tariff threats are still a major concern for copper. Beijing's response, which could be a massive stimulus package, is likely to offset the losses. Last week, Chinese Premier State media reported that Li Qiang stated China needed to implement proactive macroeconomic policy and quickly roll them out, as "external pressures" had pressed on China's stabilisation. Investors await additional stimulus measures by China to reduce the impact of Trump’s tariffs. SHFE aluminium increased by 0.4% at 19,695 Yuan per ton. Zinc rose 0.5% at 22,465 Yuan. Lead gained 0.7%, reaching 16,885 Yuan. Nickel was up 1.5%, at 122760 Yuan. Tin advanced 2.5%, to 260480 Yuan. LME aluminium rose by 0.5%, to $2408.5 per ton. Lead rose by 0.2%, to $1918, while tin rose 2.1%, to $31,870. Zinc rose 0.4%, to $2661, and nickel increased 0.6%, to $15,155. $1 = 7.3073 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Rashmi aich and Sumana Nandy in Bengaluru)
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Iron ore prices rise as investors balance upbeat China data with tariff worries
Iron ore futures traded in a narrow range Monday as investors weighed positive data from China, the world's largest consumer of iron ore against concerns about demand caused by an intensifying trade war between Washington and Beijing. The September contract for iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange ended the morning trading flat at 704 Yuan ($96.34). As of 0433 GMT, the benchmark May ore price on Singapore Exchange remained at $97.15 per ton. Analysts expected that the Chinese government would increase its stimulus program to protect it from the tariffs imposed on the country by U.S. president Donald Trump. However, better than expected loan data tempered those expectations. In March, new bank loans in China recovered more than expected, after a sharp decline the month before. Policymakers have pledged to increase stimulus in order to support the second largest economy in the world against an escalating US-China trade war. The better the data is, the less urgent it will be to reveal more stimulus measures, said a Chinese economist, referring specifically to loan data. He requested anonymity because he was not authorized to speak with media. Also, China's imports of iron ore fell in March compared to the previous month, reaching a 20-month-low, contrary to analysts' expectations that a recovery would occur as supply disruptions due weather eased. Coking coal and coke were both unchanged on the DCE. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange moved within a narrow range as well. Rebar remained flat at 0.03%. Hot-rolled coils advanced by 0.31%. Stainless steel rose 0.7%. Wire rod fell 0.06%.
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China March rare Earth exports increase as Myanmar supply disruption makes buyers nervous
China's rare earth exports increased by 20.31% from March of last year as consumers from overseas booked more cargos in fear that prices would rise due to disruptions in supply from ongoing conflict in Myanmar, a major supplier. According to the General Administration of Customs, China exported 5,666.3 tons of minerals in the 17-mineral group last month. This compares to 4,710 tonnes in the same period in 2024 and 3,217 in February. Rare earths can be found in many products, including lasers, wind turbines, electric cars, and consumer electronics. China is the largest producer in the world. The data from the Customs showed that in the first quarter 2025, exports of rare earths increased by 5.1% compared to a year ago, reaching 14,177.6 tonnes. Exports are expected to drop in April as Beijing has halted the shipments of rare earths that were placed on a list of export controls last week. This could lead to shortages abroad as Chinese exporters wait to receive government licenses. Beijing announced that it would immediately restrict the export of seven categories medium and heavy rare Earths, including samarium and related items such as gadolinium and dysprosium. Neha Mukherjee is a senior analyst with Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. She said that China's new export controls were added to the already volatile supply of heavy rare earths (HREEs) due to disruptions caused in Myanmar. This puts more than 75% global medium and heavy REEs mined at risk, and causes short-term volatility. Mukherjee said that while stocks may be sufficient to cover the near-term need, they are only enough until the first half 2025. Concerns about export delays could also drive up prices. Already, China's spot prices of praseodymium-neodymium oxide Data from Shanghai Metals Market revealed that the average price per ton was 443,071 Yuan last month. This is 1.4% higher and 25.9% more than in February and March of 2024. Due to the issues in Myanmar, China's imports of rare earths fell by 42.16% in March compared to the same period last year. This is despite the fact that shipments of the existing inventory of rare earths to China resumed on March 27. Customs data revealed that the total imports for the first quarter was tons. This represents a 30.9% decline on an annual basis.
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China's crude imports are at their highest level since August 2023 due to Iranian surge
Data released on Monday showed that China's crude imports rose sharply in March compared to the previous two month and nearly 5% compared to a year ago. The increase was attributed to a rise in Iranian oil as well as a rebound in Russian deliveries. According to records of customs, March imports totaled 51.41 millions metric tons. This is equivalent to 12.1 million barrels a day. It was the highest level since August 2023. This is an increase from 11,55 million bpd, in March 2024, and 10,38 million bpd during the period of January-February. In March, independent refiners & traders increased their purchases of Iranian crude oil in anticipation of future U.S. supply restrictions. Emma Li, an Analyst at Vortexa's tanker analytics company, reported that the tracking of her firm's tankers showed China's seaborne oil imports had rebounded from a low to a high level, 10.6 million barrels per day, which is the highest since 2023. This was largely due to the record Iranian crude arrivals in the Shandong area. The overall Russian oil delivery rebounded, despite the toughest sanctions ever imposed by Washington on Moscow's oil imports, announced in January. Non-sanctioned oil tankers took advantage of the surging freight rate to join the transport. In order to compensate for the reduction in purchases of Russian oil by state refiners since March, they have increased their purchases of alternative supplies, mainly from the Middle East and West Africa. The data revealed that crude oil imports for the entire first quarter were 135,25 million tons or 10,97 million bpd. This was 1.5% less than a year earlier. Exports of refined petroleum products (diesel, gasoline, aviation and marine fuel) were also down to 5.24 million tonnes in March, from 6.02 millions tons in March 2024. Exports for the first quarter totaled 12.46 million metric tonnes, a 16% decline on the previous year. China's new export quotas were smaller than a year earlier, but their release was a little bit earlier than usual. This weighed heavily on Asian refinery margins. Imports of natural gas, including liquefied gas and piped gas, fell by 15% in the last month compared to a year ago, at 9.16 millions tons. The first-quarter imports were also down 10% from the same period in 2024, at 29.42million tons. China's LNG spot demand remains subdued, due to high import costs and abundant domestic supplies. Due to Beijing's punitive duties, companies have refrained from shipping U.S. LNG in the midst of a U.S.-China tit-fortat trade war.
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The morning bid in Europe- a two-step tariff
Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. The "reciprocal tariffs" are now off some smartphones and electronics. But maybe for only a short time, as the White House could decide to impose their own tariff after completing a study on the global supply chain. Or something. Trump told reporters on Sunday that tariffs on semiconductors will be announced in the coming week, and a final decision on smartphones would be made "soon". It's essentially more of the chaos. It is difficult to imagine how anyone managing a business can make long-term investment decisions in these conditions. This has limited the Wall Street futures' boost for now. The S&P 500 rose around 0.8%, and the Nasdaq 1,2%. However, you'd have to assume that Apple shares will benefit at least in the short term. European stock futures actually have performed better. This could be due to speculation that Trump will also budge on other taxes. Investors may be buying Europe because they are worried about the threat to U.S. exceptionalism and "exorbitant privilige" - the dollar as the world reserve currency. The dollar has been feeling the heat, dropping below 143.00 yen again and continuing last week's 5% decline against the Swiss Franc. The euro is now knocking at $1.1400 and even high-beta Aussies and Kiwis are up. This is a clear sign that the dollar is losing its safe-haven status. Some Japanese officials have reportedly been preparing for trade talks with the United States, which will probably touch on currency policies. They are preparing for Washington to ask Tokyo to support the yen. If the White House starts to talk down the dollar, it will scare off those investors who have unhedged U.S. assets. This is the majority of them. The longer-term Treasuries yields are still up by 50 basis points, but they have not reversed the shocking jump. This would be a significant tightening of financial conditions, and a drag on the housing market if it were to continue. The Fed has another reason to ease, even if inflation continues to rise. The New York Fed's survey of inflation expectations, due on Monday, will be very interesting to see whether it shows the same spike as the University of Michigan data. The retail sales data due on Wednesday for March could be very strong, as consumers rush to purchase autos and other products before tariffs take effect. The Fed Chair Powell will also have the opportunity to share his views on Wednesday, at the Economic Club of Chicago. This Q&A is expected to be lively. The markets indicate a 20% probability of a rate cut in May, which rises to almost 80% by June. The markets have priced in 80 basis points for the entire year. However, this was up by around 130 basis point last week. Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact NY Fed inflation expectations Survey Waller, Barkin Harker, and Bostic are among the Fed speakers
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China's crude imports are at their highest level since August 2023 due to Iranian surge
Data released on Monday showed that China's crude imports rose sharply in March compared to the previous two month and nearly 5% compared to a year ago. This was due to an increase in Iranian oil as well as a rise in Russian oil deliveries. According to records of customs, March imports totaled 51.41 millions metric tons. This is equivalent to 12.1 million barrels per a day. It was the highest level since August 2023. This is an increase from 11,55 million bpd, in March 2024, and 10,38 million bpd during the period of January-February. In March, independent refiners stocked up on Iranian crude oil in anticipation of future U.S. supply restrictions. Emma Li, a tanker analyst at Vortexa said that her company's tanker tracker showed China's seaborne oil imports had rebounded to 10,6 million bpd. This was the highest level since October 2023. The increase is largely due to record Iranian crude arrivals in the Shandong area. The overall Russian oil delivery rebounded, despite the toughest sanctions ever imposed by Washington on Moscow's oil imports, announced in January. Non-sanctioned oil tankers took advantage of the surging freight rate to join the transport. In order to compensate for the reduction in purchases of Russian oil by state refiners since March, they have increased their purchases of alternative supplies, mainly from the Middle East and West Africa. The data revealed that crude oil imports for the entire first quarter were 135,25 million tons or 10,97 million bpd. This was 1.5% less than a year earlier.
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China's coal imports in March fell by 6%, as prices at home hit a four-year low
China's imports of coal fell by 6% in March due to high inventories and low domestic demand. Spot prices have fallen to four-year lowest levels. According to the General Administration of Customs, imports were down 38.73 million tons from March 2024 (41.38 million). According to the Bohai-Rim Bay Thermal Coal Price Index, China's domestic coal price with a heat content of 5,500 kilocalories/kilogram was 676 Yuan ($92.70), the lowest price since March 2021. China's coal exports to the United States in January and February were at a record level of 76.12 millions metric tons. This was an increase of 2% over the previous year. It was not surprising that coal imports in March fell, and it is expected to continue to fall for several months because of the shrinking profits from imports and high port stocks. China releases data for both the first and second months of the calendar year together to reduce the impact of Lunar New Year which can fall in either month. The data revealed that coal imports for the first quarter of 2025 were 114.85 metric tons. This was down 0.9% compared to 115.89 metric tons one year ago. (Reporting and editing by Tom Hogue, Edwina Gibbs and Colleen Waye)
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Trump is determined to keep US Steel in US control
U.S. president Donald Trump said on Sunday that he does not believe a foreign company can control U.S. Steel. He repeated comments he made last week, which dimmed the hopes of the $15 billion offer by Japan's Nippon Steel for the U.S. steel firm. Trump said Wednesday that he didn't want U.S. Steel to "go to Japan", sending its shares down by 7%. Later, the two companies said that they were working with the Trump Administration to "secure an important investment." Trump spoke to reporters on Air Force One, as he flew back from Florida to Washington. Trump and Japanese Premier Shigeru Ishiba talked about the deal in their February meeting, said the latter on Monday at a Tokyo parliament session. Ishiba stated that "the difference between acquisitions and investments must be carefully examined under the U.S. laws, but there must certainly be a point at which it (U.S. Steel), remains an American company and where Japanese interest can be realized." Since its announcement in December 2023 the original Nippon-U.S. Steel deal has been a source of controversy. Last year, both former president Joe Biden, and Trump, argued that U.S. Steel must remain American owned. They were trying to win voters in Pennsylvania, a swing state where the company has its headquarters, during an election hotly contested. Biden blocked the deal in January 2025 on grounds of national security. The parties sued Biden, claiming that he had harmed the national security review process by publicly opposing the deal to win reelection. (Reporting and editing by Tom Hogue, Saad Saeed and Saad Sayeed; Additional reporting by Kantaro Kommiya in Tokyo. Writing by Andrea Shalal, Katya Glubkova and Andrea Shalal.
Russian rouble falls on cheaper oil and recession fears
The Russian rouble fell against the U.S. Dollar on Monday as the escalating tensions in trade between the United States, China and other countries stoked concerns of a possible recession which would lower demand for crude.
The rouble had fallen 2.1% to 86.30 USD on the OTC market by 0740 GMT. The Russian currency has risen by about 24% this year against the dollar, mainly due to expectations that geopolitical tensions will ease.
Analysts at BCS Brokerage said that a collapse in oil price could lead to the weakening the rouble. However, this would not happen immediately and only if low prices per barrel continue for a prolonged period of time.
The price of oil, Russia's primary export commodity, has fallen to its lowest level since April 2020.
Last week, the Russian central bank warned that President Donald Trump’s tariff increases could slow world economic growth. They may also fuel inflation. Oil prices might be lower for years to come due to reduced global demand.
Analysts say that the increased sales of foreign currencies by the central banks, which began on Monday, has supported the Russian currency.
The U.S. tariffs have not had a direct impact on the Russian economy. However, the Kremlin has said that it must take additional measures to minimize the market turmoil.
The rouble, which is the most commonly traded currency in Russia, was also down by 0.5% on the Moscow Stock Exchange, at 11,77. (Reporting and Editing by Gareth Jones.)
(source: Reuters)