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Nigeria's Dangote oil refinery might speed up European sector's decline

Nigeria's huge Dangote oil refinery might bring to an end a decadeslong gas trade from Europe to Africa worth $17 billion a year, heaping pressure on European refineries currently at danger of closure from increased competitors, experts and traders said.

The refinery began production in January and cost $20. billion to build. It can improve up to 650,000 barrels per day. ( bpd) and will be the largest in Africa and Europe when it. reaches full capacity this or next year.

It has long been touted as the turning point for Nigeria's. mission for energy independence. Nigeria is Africa's most populated. country and its leading oil manufacturer, yet it imports practically all its. fuel due to lack of refining capability.

About a 3rd of Europe's 1.33 million bpd average gasoline. exports in 2023 went to West Africa, a bigger chunk than any. other region, with the majority of those exports winding up in. Nigeria, Kpler information shows.

The loss of the West African market will be bothersome for. a small set of refineries that do not have the package to upgrade. their gasoline to European and U.S. spec, consultancy. FGE's head of improved products Eugene Lindell said, referring to. more rigid ecological standards for other markets.

As much as 300-400,000 bpd of refining capacity in Europe is. at threat of closure because of increasing worldwide gasoline production,. according to Kpler's expert Andon Pavlov.

A European refinery executive who decreased to be determined. said seaside refineries that are geared for exports will be more. exposed while inland refineries are less susceptible since they. rely on regional demand.

The changes won't happen overnight, but they could. ultimately lead to closures of refineries and their conversion. to storage terminals, he included, referring to the tough. market environment.

Pavlov said the UK's Grangemouth and Germany's Wesseling. refineries might close ahead of schedule as an outcome of looming. gasoline oversupply later this year and ensuing pressure on. refining margins.

Petroineos CEO Franck Dema flagged the energy transition. which is triggering demand for nonrenewable fuel sources to diminish as one of. the factors behind his company's choice to shut down. Grangemouth next year. Shell stated its choice to shut. down Wesseling next year was part of its drive to minimize carbon. emissions.

Petroineos did not react to a request for comment and. Shell decreased to comment about whether its plant might close. ahead of schedule.

SHRINKING SECTOR

Around 30 European refineries have shut down because 2009,. information from refining market body Concawe program, with almost 90. plants of different sizes and complexities still in operation.

Closures have actually been caused by competition with newer and. more intricate plants in the Middle East and Asia and more. recently because of the impact of the coronovirus pandemic.

Since 2016, Europe has lost 1.52 million barrels daily. of functional crude distillation which presently stands at. 13.93 million bpd, consultancy IIR's information shows.

Most of the decline took place in 2021 and 2022 as need. damage during the COVID-19 pandemic forced shutdowns.

European refineries don't produce sufficient diesel to fulfill. local requirements however produce excessive gasoline and count on exports. to clear excess supply.

West Africa has long been the primary outlet for gasoline that. doesn't fulfill more stringent ecological constraints in Europe on. sulphur and metals material.

That trade represented $17 billion in 2023, according to. cost information from Argus Media and estimations.

The Dangote refinery, funded by Africa's wealthiest man Aliko. Dangote, was set up to produce as much as 53 million litres. of gas a day, about 300,000 bpd.

The drop in West African imports will coincide with brand-new. environmental laws in Northwest Europe, that will require plants. to reconfigure, seek brand-new markets for lower-quality gas, or. shut down.

Plants that have funds to reconfigure could direct gas. exports to the U.S. or South America, Kpler senior refining. analyst Yaping Wang stated.

But upgrading refineries is likewise challenging since banks. watch out for lending cash to fossil fuel tasks.

Even if you find a bank which will fund a European refinery. upgrade job, rates will be too expensive to make it work, said. an executive at a major U.S. bank which provides to oil companies.

(source: Reuters)