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Weekly gains in copper; US tariffs could be on the horizon
The London Metal Exchange (LME) and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SFE) saw copper prices rise for the second consecutive week on Friday despite minor fluctuations. Traders were also watching for possible U.S. import tariffs. The LME's three-month copper added 0.06% at $9,960 a metric ton as of 0106 GMT. This week it has risen by 0.85%. Meanwhile, the SHFE's most traded copper contract eased 0.31%, to 80,510 Yuan ($11231.24). It is up 1.02% for the week. The dollar has strengthened as the United States is unlikely to cut interest rates anytime soon, despite better than expected payrolls and unemployment figures. Also, the "big beautiful bill" has passed and the attention of the copper markets has shifted back to possible U.S. import tariffs. Two analysts in China have dismissed the significance of recent increases in copper stocks In warehouses registered with the LME. Three consecutive days, from July 3 to 7, the volume increased by 3,700 tonnes or 4.1% after a gradual decline since mid-April. A metals analyst from a Shanghai futures company stated that "Copper will continue to be shipped into the U.S. as long as the U.S. Tariff is not finalized." On Thursday, the COMEX copper price premium was around $1300 per ton, and metal that had been earmarked for LME warehouses to be released, or canceled warrants totaled 31,900 tons. LME Nickel fell 0.33% at $15,400 per ton, and zinc dropped 0.31% at $2,742. SHFE nickel rose 0.75%, to 122400 yuan per ton. Lead increased 0.12%, to 17,280, and tin gained 0.08%, to 2692,20. Aluminium fell 0.12% to 20660 yuan. Click or to see the latest news in metals, and other related stories. Data/Events (GMT 0600 Germany Industrial orders MM, Manufacturing O/P Cur Price SA Consumer Goods SA Mai 0830 UK S&P Global PMI: MSC Composite - Output June ($1 = 7,1684 Chinese Yuan) (Reporting and Editing by Sumana Niandy; Reporting by Hongmei Li)
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The world's largest climate fund increases investment plans
The largest multilateral climate fund in the world said that it would make its biggest ever investment and accelerate dealmaking to help poorer countries respond to global warming. Green Climate Fund shareholders, including the United States, approved a plan this week to release $1.2 billion in funding for 17 projects mainly in Asia and Africa. This comes against a turbulent political background that has seen aid cuts. In a report published in June, the OECD stated that official development assistance may fall by 17% in this year, after a 9% decline in 2024. This is due to President Donald Trump's massive cuts in U.S. government aid. In a press release, GCF Co-Chair Seyni NAFO said: "At a moment when collective climate action has never been more necessary, GCF is taking steps to fulfill its mandate." The GCF has allocated $227 million to expand the green bond market in 10 countries. Green bond markets is where companies raise funds for projects that reduce climate change or benefit the environment. In South Asia it will invest 200 million dollars in the India Green Finance Facility, which will scale up renewables and energy-efficiency, while in East Africa, it will spend $150 million on the food system, to support almost 18 million people. All projects combined will bring GCF's investment portfolio up to $18 billion in 133 different countries. To date, countries have paid $21 billion and pledged 29.9 billion dollars to the GCF. The GCF board approved plans for a faster pace of work with its partners, including accrediated entities such as other multilateral lenders or so-called Direct Access Entities (DAEs) in developing countries. The aim is to reduce the average time taken to accredit an DAE to nine months by revising its procedures and completing much of the due diligence during the project phase. (Reporting and editing by Emelia Sithole Matarise; Virgina Furness, Simon Jessop)
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Eastern China is sweltering under an early heatwave that threatens crops and industry
On Friday, sweltering heat engulfed China's east coast as a high pressure system settled over its most populous area, baking agricultural and manufacturing hubs on the Yangtze River, and raising fears of potential economic losses. Over the next week, large swathes in China's economic core are expected to reach temperatures between 37 and 39 degrees Celsius (99 and 102 Fahrenheit). Forecasters warn that temperatures in parts of Anhui, Zhejiang, Hubei, and Henan provinces could reach 40 C. This year, the subtropical heat wave has come early. The 'Sanfu Season,' an ancient agricultural mark in China that has been used for more than two millennia, usually begins mid-July. It lasts until late August. People seek shelter from the intense heat of summer. Meteorologists have linked extreme heat to climate change. This has become a major problem for Chinese policymakers. In addition to scorching crops and eroding incomes from farms, higher temperatures also impact manufacturing hubs, disrupt operations in important port cities and strain the already overburdened health care systems. Authorities in eastern and central China warned workers about the dangers and urged them to take precautions. Extreme heat and high humidity combined with commutes create a higher risk of heatstroke. China experienced its worst heatwaves in 2022. Many parts of the country were subjected to a 79 day hot spell between mid-June and late August. China doesn't keep a count of heat-related deaths and neither did the Chinese government. However, domestic media sometimes report on fatalities that are attributed to local authorities. A report in The Lancet from 2023 estimated that heat wave-related deaths in the second largest economy in the world would double to 50,900 in 2022. The national meteorological center forecasts more torrential rainfall in parts of north and south-west China this weekend. Videos on Chinese social media show residents canoeing their way through the flooded streets of Chengdu. (Reporting and editing by Lincoln Feast, Xiuhao Chan and Joe Cash.)
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Sources say that the hydrotreater at Marathon Galveston Bay Refinery will remain closed until September.
Sources familiar with the plant's operations on Thursday said that a fire-damaged hydrotreater will be closed at Marathon Petroleum Galveston Bay Refinery, Texas until September. All other units at the 631,000-barrel-per-day (bpd) refinery in Texas City, Texas, are operating at or near full capacity following the June 14 fire at the 400 train hydrotreater, which is part of the 64,000-bpd Residual Hydrotreating Unit (RHU), the sources said. Sources who refused to identify themselves because the information was not publicly available did not quantify exactly the production impact. In an email sent Thursday night, Jamal Kheiry, the spokesperson for Marathon, declined to comment on operations at its refinery. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the Galveston Bay Refinery has the second largest capacity in the United States. The 400 train is the third of three hydrotreaters that are part of the RHU. It uses hydrogen to remove sulfur in feedstocks, and products derived from them. This helps to meet U.S. Environmental Rules. The RHU has also a heavy oil unit which uses hydrogen as a boost to the motor fuels feedstocks, which can be squeezed from residual crude. This thick residue is most commonly used to make petroleum coke and asphalt. Sources said that following the fire, production of the 144,000 bpd gasoline producing fluid catalytic Cracker 3 (FCC-3), was reduced for several days. Reporting by Erwin Seba, Editing by Sandra Maler & Jamie Freed
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Oil prices stable on strong job market and tariff uncertainty
The oil prices were not much changed on Friday, as the U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates at the same level due to a strong job market. Investors are also waiting for clarity regarding President Donald Trump's tariff plans against various countries. Brent crude futures rose by 1 cent or 0.01% to $68.81 per barrel at 0036 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 3 cents or 0.04% to $67.03. The U.S. Independence Day is a holiday. The U.S. Labour Market receded from the list of risks when data released on Thursday showed American firms had added more than 147,000 jobs, and that the unemployment rate dropped to 4,1%. This is a sign the economy has remained resilient in spite of the uncertainty and turbulence over the size and scope tariffs. The President said that Washington will begin sending letters to other countries on Friday, specifying the tariff rates they'll face on goods shipped to the United States. This is a significant shift from his earlier promises to reach scores of individual agreements. Trump said to reporters on Thursday, before leaving for Iowa, that he would send 10 letters at once to ten countries, each containing tariff rates ranging from 20% to 30%. Trump's 90 day pause in raising U.S. Tariffs ends on the 9th of July, and many large trading partners are yet to sign trade agreements. This includes the European Union and Japan. OPEC+ - the world's biggest group of oil producers - is expected to announce a production increase of 411,000 barrels a day for August in order to regain market shares, according to four delegates. Treasury Department: The U.S. imposed sanctions against Hezbollah controlled financial institutions and a network which smuggles Iranian crude oil under the guise of Iraqi oil. Barclays said on Thursday that it had raised its Brent Oil price forecast for 2025 by $6 per barrel to $72 and for 2026 by $10 to $70, citing an improved outlook on demand. (Reporting from Arathy S. Somasekhar, Houston; Editing and proofreading by Tom Hogue.)
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AGL Energy purchases South Australia's Virtual Power Plant (VPP) from Tesla
AGL Energy announced on Friday that it has acquired South Australia's Virtual Power Plant from Tesla. The Australian power retailer is looking to increase its battery storage to help drive the green energy transition. AGL is aiming to achieve zero net carbon emissions in 2035 by implementing grid-scale storage projects of 1.4 gigawatts. AGL will be able to access residential solar and battery system networks consisting of approximately 7,000 Powerwall batteries. More are expected to be installed in this year. SAVPP is an extensive network of Powerwall and solar home battery systems installed in South Australian community and social housing. AGL will now own the SAVPP. In a press release, the company said that customers would receive significant discounts on energy and it will explore ways to extend the program to other users. Jo Egan, AGL's Chief Customer Officer, said: "We understand that the upfront costs for installing solar panels and batteries are a barrier to many people. We are working on ways to make them more affordable." The company stated that the solar and battery assets will be coordinated so as to work together and used to stabilise electricity grids where necessary. The company has not disclosed the value of this deal. Tesla, the electric vehicle manufacturer, did not respond immediately to a question about the deal's value.
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Michael Madsen, actor of 'Reservoir Dogs and Kill Bill', dies aged 67
Michael Madsen died on Thursday at the age of 67. He was an actor in many films, including "Reservoir Dogs", "Thelma and Louise" and others. Ron Smith, Madsen's manager, confirmed that Madsen died from a cardiac arrest in his Malibu home. Madsen, who was born in Chicago in 1960, began acting in early 1980s with projects such as the TV series "St. He has accumulated more than 300 credits on screen, including "St. He appeared in "The Hateful Eight", "Kill Bill" and "Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood" as well as in "Reservoir Dogs", a 1992 film directed by Quentin Tarantino. Smith, Susan Ferris, and Liz Rodriguez, along with their manager Susan Ferris said that Michael Madsen had done some amazing work in the independent film industry over the past two years. They said he was also preparing to publish a book entitled "Tears For My Father : Outlaw Thoughts And Poems", which is currently in the editing process.
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Stocks hit record, US dollar strengthens after jobs data
The dollar rose after the U.S. payrolls data was stronger than expected, which indicated that the labor market might not be degrading as rapidly. The Labor Department Nonfarm payrolls increased 147,000 jobs in June, after a 144,000 increase in May that was revised upwards. This is well above the 110,000 estimates of economists polled. Markets dialed Back expectations According to LSEG, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates this year in response to the new data. The nearly 25% chance of a rate cut has all but disappeared, and expectations for a reduction in September are now down to 75%, from nearly 98% just before the report was released. "July Cut is off the table." "I was as surprised as everyone else to receive such a high number," said Sandy Villere. I'm not going say Goldilocks but it is pretty amazing, given all the intercurrents from DOGE to tariffs. It's pretty amazing that you can cut when the labor market is this strong. Wall Street closed again at record highs, with the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq composite index both reaching new records. Technology shares Nvidia rose by 1.3%, as its market capitalization approached $4 trillion. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM), another economic institute, showed that the U.S. service sector was booming. Pick up the pace In June, employment decreased for the third consecutive month as orders recovered. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 344.11, or 0.7%, to 44.828.53, while the S&P 500 jumped 51.93, or 0.8%, to 6,279.35, and the Nasdaq Composite grew 207.97, or 1.02, points to 20,601.10. The S&P 500 rose by 1.72% for the week. The Nasdaq gained 1.62% and the Dow rose 2.3%. MSCI's global stock index rose by 5.99 points or 0.65% to 926.47, after reaching a record high of 926.79. It was also up 0.3% for the week. The pan-European STOXX 600 closed the week up 0.47% led by bank stocks. Dollars strengthened In the wake of payrolls, the dollar index, which measures greenbacks against a basket currencies, rose 0.38% to reach 97.12. The euro fell 0.37%, at $1.1754. The dollar is on course for its second consecutive gain, after nine sessions of declines. It was down by 0.1% this week. The dollar gained 0.95% against the Japanese yen to reach 145.03. Hajime Takata, a Bank of Japan board of member, said that the central banks should resume interest rates hikes after a temporary pause in order to evaluate the effect of U.S. Tariffs. He expressed optimism that the country is on track to achieve its central bank's goal of price stability. The sterling strengthened by 0.07%, to $1.3645. This follows a sharp drop in UK assets the previous session due to fiscal concerns and uncertainties about Rachel Reeves future as Britain's Finance Minister. U.S. Treasury yields jumped After the jobs report, we will ease a bit. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes increased 5.3 basis point to 4.346%, while the yield on the 2-year note, which moves typically in line with expectations of interest rates for the Federal Reserve rose 9.7 basis points, to 3.886%. The 10-year yield increased by 6.3 basis point while the 2-year rate rose nearly 14.6 basis points. U.S. crude dropped 0.65% to $67.01 per barrel. Brent was down to $68.79 a barrel, a drop of 0.46% for the day.
Asia stocks slide, gold rises as Middle East conflict stimulates safety rush
Asian shares plunged and gold costs increased on Monday as risk belief took a struck after Iran's retaliatory attack on Israel stired worries of a wider local dispute and kept traders on edge.
The dollar scaled a fresh 34-year high versus the yen on growing expectations that sticky inflationary pressures in the United States will keep rates there greater for longer.
Markets in Asia started the week on a mindful footing. MSCI's. broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan. fell 0.7% after Iran had, late on Saturday,. introduced explosive drones and missiles at Israel in retaliation. for a believed Israeli attack on its consulate in Syria on. April 1.
That significant Iran's very first direct attack on Israeli area.
The danger of open warfare erupting in between the arch Middle. East opponents and dragging in the United States has actually left the area. on tenterhooks. U.S. President Joe Biden cautioned Prime Minister. Benjamin Netanyahu the U.S. will not participate in a. counter-offensive against Iran.
Israel said the project is not over yet.
Japan's Nikkei moved more than 1%, while Australia's. S&P/ ASX 200 index lost 0.6%.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index dropped 0.8%.
The intensifying tensions likewise sparked a flight to security that. sent out gold increasing 0.51% to $2,356.39 an ounce and the. safe-haven dollar broadly higher, extending its 1.6% increase. from recently.
Oil rates, nevertheless, hardly responded to the news, as. traders had actually mostly priced in a vindictive attack from Iran. that would likely further disrupt supply chains. That saw Brent. unrefined futures peaking at $92.18 a barrel last week, the. highest level because October.
Brent was last 0.5% lower at $90.01 per barrel, while. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell approximately. 0.6% to $85.13 a barrel.
The key threats for the global economy are whether this now. intensifies into a wider local conflict, and what the. action remains in energy markets, stated Neil Shearing, group chief. financial expert at Capital Economics.
An increase in oil rates would make complex efforts to bring. inflation back to target in innovative economies, however will just. If greater, have a material impact on central bank choices. energy rates bleed into core inflation.
U.S. stock futures, on the other hand, ticked greater, after a. heavy selloff on Wall Street on Friday as results from significant. U.S. banks failed to impress.
S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures each rose. 0.15%.
Geopolitical headlines are going to be very much there,. said Chris Weston, head of research study at Pepperstone.
The marketplace is truly attempting to comprehend what's going. on. Their presence to cost threat in this market has become a. bit more frustrating, and I believe when you don't have that. presence, you do get greater volatility. That's kind of where. we are.
RATE RETHINK
In Other Places, U.S. Treasury yields held near their recent highs. as traders pared back their expectations of the rate and scale. of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year.
The benchmark 10-year yield last stood at. 4.5277%, while the two-year yield held near the 5%. level and was last at 4.8966%.
An ongoing run of resistant U.S. financial data,. particularly recently's hotter-than-expected inflation report,. has added to the view that U.S. rates might remain greater for. longer, and that a Fed reducing cycle is not likely to commence in. June.
Futures now indicate about 50 basis points worth of relieving. expected this year, a huge pullback from the 160 bps that was. priced in at the start of the year.
That sea change in the rate outlook has in turn sent the. dollar on a tear, pressing it to a 34-year peak of 153.69 yen on. Monday.
The euro and sterling were similarly. pinned near five-month lows.
We have actually upgraded our projections for the U.S. FOMC, pushing. out the timing of the start of the interest rate cutting cycle. to September 2024, from July formerly, stated Kristina Clifton,. a senior financial expert at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
The U.S. CPI has actually been stronger than expected over the. three months of 2024. We anticipate that it will take a string of. inflation prints of 0.2%/ month or lower to provide the Fed. confidence that inflation can remain sustainably lower and that. rate of interest do not require to remain at a limiting level.
A multitude of Fed policymakers are due to speak this week,. including Chair Jerome Powell, who might provide more clearness on. the future path of U.S. rates of interest.
The shift in rate expectations has stopped bitcoin's. blistering rally, after the world's largest. cryptocurrency repeatedly notched fresh records this year thanks. to flows into brand-new spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds and. expectations of impending Fed cuts.
Bitcoin was last more than 2% lower at $65,536, after. falling below $62,000 on Sunday.
(source: Reuters)